Can't win

mbehr1983mbehr1983 Red Chipper Posts: 635 ✭✭✭
I have been having a bad month. I am studying and applying principles but can't beat variance. I get these guys to makes mistakes for their stacks and loose. I understand this part of it. In this one game i am down 1700 just for the month. I get them to get it in bad and somehow they hit to win. It seems this happens in huge pots. I had this hand tonight
Table tight so probably appear LAG just lost a hand by raising and delayed cbet got called on turn and I didn't improve to 6-3o gut shot out there no showdown as he lead and I folded
LJ been calling since I set down and hitting flops he is laggy he has effective 135 raises 15 Hero is CO AKo Reraise to 60 he calls
Pot 130 with few limpers who fold LJ calls SPR 1-2 so I am committed
Flop ATT V checks I bet 50 should bet 75 but doesn't change he tanks and tanks and put 25 AI I call now up to variance and J peels on turn (I know not supposed to put results but this has been how it's been all month)
R K
Frustrating because I know I had the edge in situations like these but find away to loose.
What can I do? I know long run long run but dang if I run this bad won't make it to the long run
Thoughts on how u get through these spells

Comments

  • GabeyJGabeyJ Red Chipper Posts: 436 ✭✭✭
    It hurts so it's more about mental game recovering from the swing. There is a podcast RCP has that is about downswings
  • mbehr1983mbehr1983 Red Chipper Posts: 635 ✭✭✭
    Just listened to it. Keep studying and grinding. I have been doing this. Hope it starts to turn in my favor soon
  • ChipXtractorChipXtractor Red Chipper Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭✭
    mbehr1983 wrote: »
    I have been having a bad month. I am studying and applying principles but can't beat variance. I get these guys to makes mistakes for their stacks and loose. I understand this part of it. In this one game i am down 1700 just for the month. I get them to get it in bad and somehow they hit to win. It seems this happens in huge pots. I had this hand tonight
    Table tight so probably appear LAG just lost a hand by raising and delayed cbet got called on turn and I didn't improve to 6-3o gut shot out there no showdown as he lead and I folded
    LJ been calling since I set down and hitting flops he is laggy he has effective 135 raises 15 Hero is CO AKo Reraise to 60 he calls
    Pot 130 with few limpers who fold LJ calls SPR 1-2 so I am committed
    Flop ATT V checks I bet 50 should bet 75 but doesn't change he tanks and tanks and put 25 AI I call now up to variance and J peels on turn (I know not supposed to put results but this has been how it's been all month)
    R K
    Frustrating because I know I had the edge in situations like these but find away to loose.
    What can I do? I know long run long run but dang if I run this bad won't make it to the long run
    Thoughts on how u get through these spells

    Embracing the high variance inherent in the game is one of the most difficult things to do in poker. Truth be told some of the most prolific players still have issues with accepting the fact that the game can be volatile.

    If you are going to move forward in the game, or even enjoy playing at your current level, you need to spend some serious time thinking about your mental state and how you approach the game from an emotional point of view.

    I would suggest starting with this podcast... http://www.pokermindcoach.com/category/tmapodcast/

    You will find that Elliot Roe and Dr. Tricia Cardner have a ton of experience in this area. The discussions and guests will lead you in many different directions, many of which can help your poker game.

    Good luck and make sure to post any questions you may have going forward. There is a ton of experience on these boards and many people are willing to help. All the best.

    cXt
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The faster you work toward understanding this is normal the more heartbreak you will spare yourself. Always be prepared to lose, always plan to win.
  • Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 669 ✭✭✭
    I'd like to reiterate that acceptance is the key. It happens. Last summer I went through a similar period of getting my money in good only to lose. And I fell into the pitfall of letting run bad turn into play bad, which hurt my numbers even more. So again, accept that this happens, and you'll get out of the rut sooner rather than later.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    What level are you playing? If your at 2\5 i would drop down for a few seasions to 1\2 and rebuild your confidence.

    2nd i would tighten up your ranges drop KQo and AJo from ep as well as 22-66 just for starters and use a tight isolation range even something like AQ+ TT+. This will help you play small ball and book a couple of small winning sessions. Once your back in the positive then go ahead and go back to opening up your game some.

    I haven't had bad months per say when i play consistently but ive had bad weeks and i think in terms of session win rate i have a pretty high win rate. So say i have between 80-90% win rate which is some what skewed cause i tend to keep playing when im stuck until im in the green again. If i lose 3 or 4 straight days i take a couple of days just to watch videos and read the forum to see if I'm playing bad or running bad. Very important to be honest with yourself about this. You may play the hand well post but the leak starts preflop.

    Also I read another article on variance but the guy was a pro for about ten years and only had like 1-2 losing months over his career but was stuck in a spot as the game changed where he has had 3 consecutive losing months.

    Another guy played sng for a living online at the $16 level with close to a 10% roi back in the day which 20 bi is common to lose but he was on a downswing over 100 buyin which is the top variance you should encounter at the lower levels. He had played 100-200 sng a day for a couple of years so he had well over 100k games played and his graph showed little variance up until this point. He embraced it though.

    I think one thing that helps is a variance calculator.

    Gym, healthy eating, study variance, embrace it, and keep moving forward. Advice i need to start doing more of myself.
  • chimerachimera Red Chipper Posts: 96 ✭✭
    Go though your hand history and ask yourself at every point, "What so I do here? " is that what you did? I find that it's best to leave the hand history for a bit so that I can look at it with fresh eyes. Did you get your money in good? If yes and you still lost, that's variance, don't worry move on. If however you get your money in bad, whether you won the hand or not, why? Where you outplayed or do you have a leak?
  • mbehr1983mbehr1983 Red Chipper Posts: 635 ✭✭✭
    Lots of great stuff here. I am learning to accept variance. I am sure I have made several mistakes. its like if it's a big spot I can't stay ahead or get on lucky. I will try and do some of these things suggested
  • SixthStreetSixthStreet Red Chipper Posts: 260 ✭✭
    i am trying to accept it. last month was the first month in red in 3 years. I know i should get over it, but I hate to lose. i play a super soft game just like in splitsuits podcast, i preflop size good. have my bet sizes pre planned for rest of hand. get it in good and play for value. i have 64% win rate and 8.82 BB/hr. Reading this will help need to get over it, but needed to air it out. I just think in these bingo low stakes games it can be higher.
  • philby20philby20 Red Chipper Posts: 189 ✭✭
    if i get it in good like 70-30 not 52-48 and i loose i'm ok about it because i made the right play. The other day i played and i won 300 bbs in a 1-3 game but felt terrible with my play for the night because i got it in twice as a huge dog and won i was quiet depresssed after the session even though i won $$ just because my play was terrible
  • ChibberChibber Red Chipper Posts: 380 ✭✭✭
    If you are getting your money in good when it all goes in the middle, the outcome is out of your control. You have done your job. Players are going to hit their outs.

    If people are making "bad" calls against you and hitting their gin card, but you are not all in, then consider why you might be making calling errors. Evaluate how much of this is variance versus poor decision-making. We are all subject to this as rarely is it bad variance alone.

    Variance is good for the game. Embrace it.

    Also, assuming you are properly rolled for the level you are playing the best thing to do, in my opinion, is to play through; this also assumes bad variance is the sole issue and not bad play.
  • AcesaladAcesalad Red Chipper Posts: 240 ✭✭
    You're not alone. I am on a 7 week losing streak. I was handling it pretty good until the last time I played and it started to tilt me at the table. I took a week off and I am going back this week. Take a break, get your head straight and then return. Things have to turn around for us eventually.
  • mbehr1983mbehr1983 Red Chipper Posts: 635 ✭✭✭
    Chibber wrote: »
    If you are getting your money in good when it all goes in the middle, the outcome is out of your control. You have done your job. Players are going to hit their outs.

    If people are making "bad" calls against you and hitting their gin card, but you are not all in, then consider why you might be making calling errors. Evaluate how much of this is variance versus poor decision-making. We are all subject to this as rarely is it bad variance alone.

    Variance is good for the game. Embrace it.

    Also, assuming you are properly rolled for the level you are playing the best thing to do, in my opinion, is to play through; this also assumes bad variance is the sole issue and not bad play.
    I am just getting back after a few years hiatus. I am sure a lot has been bad plays that was before finding this site. I am making progress but my roll is gone. I am going to try and keep studying until I can get a decent roll to play comfortable at theses games. 1/2 is the lowest game around here. I will save and try and get back at it. It is funny I would build my roll and then variance and bad play just don't work for me. My game is pretty fishy and there were several spots where I had 15+ outs to win and they didn't hit for big pots like 700-1000. I am sure there were some questionable plays in there. I will just have to save and study while saving hoping the poker gods will reward my study time
  • mbehr1983mbehr1983 Red Chipper Posts: 635 ✭✭✭
    Acesalad wrote: »
    You're not alone. I am on a 7 week losing streak. I was handling it pretty good until the last time I played and it started to tilt me at the table. I took a week off and I am going back this week. Take a break, get your head straight and then return. Things have to turn around for us eventually.
    I hope so. I have to start back at 0 and try and build it back up. its just frustrating
  • AcesaladAcesalad Red Chipper Posts: 240 ✭✭
    It's tough but you should have a proper bankroll. I took a few months off to save up $3500 to play 1/2. Some would say that's not enough but it had to be for me. Even with my losing streak I have over $3000 so that makes dealing with the downswings easier. If you are not bankrolled properly you are going to be more stressed.

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