Math, Robots, Stupidity: JCW, ChipTrader, Doug Hull - a Debate on this Forum

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  • zampana1970zampana1970 Red Chipper Posts: 549 ✭✭✭
    @Imperator Another thing you were playing with in a previous time on this thread was the idea of studying a mountain of player data -- the hands-face-up view of millions of hands of poker.

    Is it Ignition that plays anonymously and gives you all the hands at the table face up for post review? Would access to that kind of data but attributed be the motherload of poker information? I wonder if there would be someway to make anonymous all millions of hands (to protect specific players) but at the same time know which hands belong to whom ("player0000001" thru "player100000", say). You could run an incredibly deep data analysis on those who are winning and those who are losing and see exactly how they play, study for variance affect over millions of hands, etc.

    I'm not 100% sure that you'd find the secret grail to beating poker, but it would be fascinating to be able to play with all this data. If nothing else you would likely get a good sense of the fluid nature of the game, being able to run different experiments like whether people are looser on the weekends, tighter in the winter, more aggressive around the Superbowl, etc etc etc....
  • Kevin EKevin E Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    Even wth all that data, it would take a serious effort to extrapolate it into something useful. It could very well be done but to gain the knowledge, you'd have to earn it.
  • zampana1970zampana1970 Red Chipper Posts: 549 ✭✭✭
    Yeah but science!?!
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • ImperatorImperator Red Chipper Posts: 898 ✭✭✭
    kagey wrote: »

    My guess is that there can't be a game theory "solution" to full ring NLHE only game theory approaches. But there can be a sophisticated "betting theory" for full ring.

    My idea of a poker database similar to Chessbase has other sources which I will try to explain when I have more time.

    But certainly when we have Quantum Computers many of the simply computational problems will be solved.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2017
    @kagey @Imperator

    Ok,

    We need to build a poker bot that use GTO and hack our way to install it here !


    https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.wired.com/2012/03/ff_nsadatacenter/amp/


    The city's name is Bluffdale !
  • zampana1970zampana1970 Red Chipper Posts: 549 ✭✭✭
    What can we name the university that will sound realistic? This is our goldmine and we can't mess it up.

    @Imperator My only thought here is probably an obvious one, but when you sit down to model the "poker hand" what are you going to mathematically include? The cards obviously and their values and equity shares, and some way of modelling bet sizing and position and some sort of playing history on each player, some sort of trackable model of their tendencies, maybe all on top of a GTO base, etc etc.

    But do you include some kind of measure of their visual performance, if this is a live model: what they're doing with their hands, how long their eye contract is, various words they say that have been tracked to imply strength or weakness, all discounted based on how long they've been playing and how how tired they are, how nervous they've been acting, etc.

    I think I'm reinforcing your point that there likely can't be a game theory solution to full ring - the variables are too great and the modelling this side of impossible.

    But I will look forward to your chessbase comparisons. I wonder if in a billion hands there won't be certain trends, moves, ideas, plays, ideas, etc, that will appear through analysis. Again, acknowledging the fluidity of all this - the more a certain play appears the more the rest of the players adjust to it. I don't know near enough chess to know if this is something you see in that game, this game adjustment across time?

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