200NL - A3 Flops Straight But Board Pairs

SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,032 -
edited July 2014 in Live Poker Hands
[video]

Hey guys. I reviewed a hand history from 1/2 where a player semi-bluff 3bet with A3 preflop, got 1 caller, and flopped a lucky straight. My main questions are this:

1. Are there any opponents you would check the river against?
2. What if Hero had $600 left on the river? Would that change if you check or bet the river? If you decide to bet, what size would you use?

Comments

  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,095 ✭✭✭✭✭
    1. I do not like a check or a fold on this river. For one thing, our small value bet on the river may have induced the shove from all the good pairs he has slow played, including tricky AA/KK. Yes, there are opponents I would check the river against, specifically those I know who play their sets this way; in general a set does not appear in this hand, however. Since this is a home game, hero should have a massive read on this guy. His range for cold calling in the SB should be extremely strong, and hero should know if he overcalls with small pairs OOP, true fish style.
    2. If hero had $600 left, the information used in question one would help. That deep, bet/folding or check/calling are better than bet/calling against such a nutted line.

    Not incidentally, I find it truly bizarre that hero somehow has preflop aggression statistics for a 1/2 home game, but not a simple read on how the SB actually plays.
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,032 -
    Yea, I also found it odd that Hero had a 900 hand sample size but no other reads.
  • nemoroninnemoronin Red Chipper Posts: 45
    Ah, it's a 1/2 home game. Totally agree with the analysis - if the flop and turn bets were slightly larger, the river becomes a fairly easy shove.

    1. I'm not sure you'd want to check this river against anybody. Nobody expects you to show up with A3 for a straight here. Maybe QQ for river Q's full, but I'd expect most people to think you have AA or KK. To check back the river, your opponent would have to fit the following profile:
    A. Willing to slowplay a flopped 63s or set to the river against a likely overpair
    B. Not willing to check/call the river with AQ, JJ or worse

    To consider folding the river, I think your opponent must fit this profile:
    A. Only check/raising boats on the river - i.e. not value-shoving slowplayed AA or KK.
    B. Never spazzes out with a hand like JJ, 54, 43, or 32.
    C. Never screws around preflop and "tries to make a play" with a hand like 72o (it's a home game).

    2. I'd still be inclined to bet the river, for all the reasons given in #1. Pick a smaller size, one that a hand like 99 would consider calling. Likely fold to the check/raise unless you have some sort of sick history.
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,032 -
    nemoronin wrote:
    ...2. I'd still be inclined to bet the river, for all the reasons given in #1. Pick a smaller size, one that a hand like 99 would consider calling. Likely fold to the check/raise unless you have some sort of sick history.

    So you would b/f this particular river if you DID bet ~$100?

    (btw, I'm totally on board with your other analysis)
  • nemoroninnemoronin Red Chipper Posts: 45
    SplitSuit wrote:
    nemoronin wrote:
    ...2. I'd still be inclined to bet the river, for all the reasons given in #1. Pick a smaller size, one that a hand like 99 would consider calling. Likely fold to the check/raise unless you have some sort of sick history.

    So you would b/f this particular river if you DID bet ~$100?

    (btw, I'm totally on board with your other analysis)

    Well, specifically I'd only consider checking back if I thought my opponent was capable of doing something genius/stupid like check-raising 99 as a bluff/no-clue-why-I'm-betting on the river.

    Against most people I've seen play 1/2 NL, I'd happily bet/fold.
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,032 -
    nemoronin wrote:
    Against most people I've seen play 1/2 NL, I'd happily bet/fold.

    Fair enough :D

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