Shove, Check-Shove or Check-call on the Turn

Eager StudentEager Student Red Chipper Posts: 66
$1-2 No Limit Caesar's against a tourist

I open PFR $12 ($300 stack) HJ :Ad :3d

Young male tourist who was new to the table in CO CR ($120 stack) Others folded

Pot $25 Flop :As :Qd :5d

I CBet $12, Tourist called.

I usually check Ace rag suited after raising if I hit the Ace, but this time I bet because I had the nut flush draw and a back door straight draw.

Turn was :2c

I checked.

Tourist bet $20.

I thought he might bet with AA, QQ, 55, A2+ KQ, QJ, QT, :Kd :Jd , :Kd :Td , :Jd :Td , :Jd :9d , :Td :9d , :9d :9d , :8d :7d , :7d :6d , :6d :4d and 43s. Does this range seem reasonable to you?

I considered the Check-Shove and checked it later using the Fold Equity Calculator
Pot size before you shove 71
How much do you have to call? 20
How much are you shoving total? 96
Estimated percent equity when called? 43
We break even if opponent calls this percentage: -14%

It appears that a Check-Shove was a profitable play. Did I use the Fold Equity Calculator correctly?
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Comments

  • 72,Alln72,Alln Red Chipper Posts: 7
    I think check shove is fine as you have plenty of equity against his range but personally I think he has called PF with maybe Ax and due to hero checking turn with a brick card he has bet out to take pot down.. He possibly thinks you bet shadow pair Q and have give up on turn
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I like your initiative pre.
    But you've basically hit gin on the flop - and I would be driving this hand like a set through each street. I'd bet at least 2/3 pot - but often pot because you're only heads up and the pot is small. So I'm not a fan of your flop bet.

    on the turn, you improve from top pair +flush to top pair + flush AND straight outs.
    that said, I don't like your range for him... (BTW, I don't think :9d :9d is possible unless you're using 2 decks! I think you meant to write :9d :8d )

    unless you've seen him make bad calls heads up with suited connectors, I'd say his combos of :Xd :Xd are limited. Here, he should have a lot of AX hands - most of which beat yours. And a few combos of broadways like KQ, KT, QJ and such.
    All those hands you can get value from - so I'd be betting the turn - 2/3 to 3/4 pot.

    I think the check/shove move - long term - is the least profitable move. Why?
    Because you basically ask your opponent to fold all hands that you beat - and invite him to continue on with only the top of his range - AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A9, A5, 55... etc.
    Yeah, you've got 9 flush outs, 3 straight outs and maaaaaaaybe a 3 might help your situation.... if you're behind. So 12 clean outs - times 2 (for one card to come) - means that if you're behind, you're 25% to win the pot.

    The trick to beating this game is to truly understand what ranges your V will have. And most of these answers start at the flop. For example - V should never show up with 43 here unless it's :4d :3d. The wider you range your V - the more "correct" you'll find your play to be. But when you give him a tighter, more accurate range - you'll see that your play was very "optimistic."

    If you're betting and he's calling - his range will be wider than if you check/shove... on average. So when you shove - he should fold out AT, A9 and his smaller suited connectors. Run that more realistic range against your equity and you'll see that you're way behind.

    The turn is a bet in my book. I think check/shoving is a sub-optimal play.

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