Facing river shove with king high flush...

tagliustaglius Red Chipper Posts: 290 ✭✭
Had a nice poker weekend, played 19 hours between Friday and Saturday - here's one of my big decisions...

$1-2, pretty bad table. A middle age female player is playing the usual too many hands. I have seen her limp, raise small to $7, and raise bigger to $12 (I had a theory at the time about what these raises meant, but hadn't seen a showdown yet to verify). Postflop she seems straightforward. She has a big stack in front of her, like $700. I have just under $200, probably $190.

In this hand, she raises to $7 from EP, everyone folds (strange for this table to not have multiple callers), and I call in the SB with :Kc :Qc .

Flop ($16) :8c :8d :3c. I check, she checks.
Turn ($16) :Jc. I bet $10 she calls.
River ($36). :4d. I bet $22. She states "all in" without moving. She looks stiff as a statue, with a small smile on her face.

Comments

  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,125 ✭✭✭✭
    If she truly is playing way too many hands, I would 3 bet pre here and lead all streets. As played, I'm probably finding a fold here going with your statement of her playing straightforward postflop. It's a very weird line though. Curious to know if you called and if you got to see what she held.
  • tagliustaglius Red Chipper Posts: 290 ✭✭
    I'll wait a day or so before posting results., would love to hear several opinions.
  • Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 666 ✭✭✭
    I'm folding as well against the player as described. There's not enough in the pot for me to find out if this is the time she actually bluffed.
  • bmaddenbmadden Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    Sometimes you have to embrace uncertainty in this game. I would wonder why....
    1. She checked the flop with the nut flush draw
    2. After her c/c of the flop you still have around 160 more behind. How is she going to get the rest of the money in if she does not c/r the turn IF she in fact has any Ax club combos. Same goes for the very unlikely flopped quads.
    3. So, is the river a nuts or nothing scenario? I don't think that is iron clad in all 1/2 games. A lot of times these players overvalue their hands. but...... a lot of times they take strange lines which would make no sense to a better player. This would be a strange way to play the effective nuts if your goal is to actually make money. lol.
    I'm leaning toward calling albeit reluctantly.
  • bmaddenbmadden Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    edited April 2016
    In item two above I didn't mention the full house combos 33 or JJ but they kinda have the same reasoning as the quads and Ax combos plus I couldn't see checking JJ on the flop so I really don't have it in her range on the turn. How does she get the stack without putting another chunk (check raising) in if she thinks she is ahead and that you may have a flush? It doesn't compute to me but I have seen stranger things in these games so I cant give you a guarantee for sure lol.
  • tagliustaglius Red Chipper Posts: 290 ✭✭
    maybe she's not thinking clearly about getting my stack.
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    edited April 2016
    I don't think I'd pay a bullet to find out. Stiff as a statue is generally more bluff based, so I might make the call depending on what I feel is the authenticity of the smile.

    But, yeah. Likely folding. 75 BBs to bluff catch in a spot where we've invested 20 bbs. Ed would say not to pay them off, players at 1-2 don't bluff frequently enough on the river, and overbets are disproportionately strength
  • bmaddenbmadden Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    taglius wrote: »
    maybe she's not thinking clearly about getting my stack.

    I hear ya. Thats why it wouldnt be an "I got her" type of call. lol. The only thing that makes it a tough fold for me is I see so many times in these games where an inexperienced player will overplay their hand. Heck, she may have been calling you down with pocket 4s and rivered a full house. lol Ive seen gross stuff like that happen at 1/2 more often than 2/5 but it happens. Normally, a shove on the river from a calling station means the nuts or close to it. I know. The turn action just seems odd. that all. If I was actually in the game and observed how both of you were playing i.e. limping vs raising frequencies etc. I may have a different answer. Usually this is a fold against a straight forward player but this line is not straight forward to me. Unless......this player is so addicted to trapping that they do not care about extracting chips. And...I agree with you....I have seen this too. Im only slightly in favor of a call. If wrong, I rebuy and I have learned something about this player. lol
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    :Ac :Js is the only bluffing hand I can see possible because of the nut flush blocker. I almost always think its full house of quads here though. Make the overbet shove very profitable against thinking players.
  • bmaddenbmadden Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    :Ac :Js is the only bluffing hand I can see possible because of the nut flush blocker. I almost always think its full house of quads here though. Make the overbet shove very profitable against thinking players.

    Excellent point. Overthinking may be my biggest leak at 1/2 for sure.
  • OneManCold85OneManCold85 Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
    I don't really think she's bluffing - I'm thinking she's over-valueing her hand or just has nut flush or better - So, that makes me think A8 or AJ are the only hands in this part of her range. And like the guys above said, having the Ace of Clubs would make these better bluffs, if that is in fact what she's going for.

    One question though - Are any of you guys trying to bluff someone off a flush on this board in a 1/2 game????
    I know there's no way in hell I'm trying to make this play against a random 1/2 player.

    So do you think she would try it?

    The crappy thing about these 1/2 hands is
    1) They can have anything, and they could think that anything, random 8s, AJ on this board, is basically the nuts
    2) DON'T PAY THEM OFF

    In conclusion - I don't know if I could fold in real time at the table... but I hope I'd think about it for more than 5 seconds. For now, I say you gotta obey #2 and FOLD, DON'T PAY THEM OFF!
  • Jimmy3150Jimmy3150 Red Chipper Posts: 362 ✭✭
    I think a straight forward player is never bluffing here, the all-in overbet is a desperate attempt to make it look like a bluff in order to get full value. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them flip over :8s :8h in this scenario for the slow played monster. She seems comfortable with that smile on her face, she has it...just fold.
  • tagliustaglius Red Chipper Posts: 290 ✭✭
    ok, most say fold and I agreed. The first thing that came to my head in real time is that nobody bluff shoves the river in 1-2, so the only question was whether she was shoving for value hands that I could beat. Since I held the K and Q of clubs and the J was on the board, this meant was she shoving :Tc :9c and :7c :6c for value? I didn't think so. Another piece of evidence that I used was that I felt like she would limp connector type hands, since she split her range into three pieces preflop with limp, raise small, and raise big, and that the small raise was more likely to be... Ax type hands.

    I folded. I bit later I told her I folded a high flush. She said "wow, some people couldn't get away there". I said "well, I didn't think you were bluffing, so I knew you were betting what you thought was the best hand". She said back "Oh, I knew I had the best hand". I knew I had made the right play after that. Then she offered "I had Ace-7 of clubs".

    PS: couldn't have been 88, she would have shown it and won a $750 high hand bonus for quads.
  • bmaddenbmadden Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    taglius wrote: »
    ok, most say fold and I agreed. The first thing that came to my head in real time is that nobody bluff shoves the river in 1-2, so the only question was whether she was shoving for value hands that I could beat. Since I held the K and Q of clubs and the J was on the board, this meant was she shoving :Tc :9c and :7c :6c for value? I didn't think so. Another piece of evidence that I used was that I felt like she would limp connector type hands, since she split her range into three pieces preflop with limp, raise small, and raise big, and that the small raise was more likely to be... Ax type hands.

    I folded. I bit later I told her I folded a high flush. She said "wow, some people couldn't get away there". I said "well, I didn't think you were bluffing, so I knew you were betting what you thought was the best hand". She said back "Oh, I knew I had the best hand". I knew I had made the right play after that. Then she offered "I had Ace-7 of clubs".

    PS: couldn't have been 88, she would have shown it and won a $750 high hand bonus for quads.

    Rats! I got stacked again! lol nice fold. At least I was right about the boats/quads not being in her range. lol. But the more I thought about this hand the more concerned I became about the range split and the fact that with the blockers she actually had slightly more Ax club hands than flushes that I beat. I didn't think she had ANY bluffs in her range but was hoping she was overplaying a worse hand. Thanks for sharing. I always appreciate learning something.
  • BenLeewoodBenLeewood Red Chipper Posts: 285 ✭✭
    It came down to you having $39 of your $190. Without a good read of her showdowns, this has got to be a fold. Annoyingly. In a cash game I may be more inclined to call. In a tournament, I'm folding a lot here.
  • Steve007Steve007 Red Chipper Posts: 363 ✭✭✭
    edited April 2016
    Austin wrote: »
    :Ac :Js is the only bluffing hand I can see possible because of the nut flush blocker. I almost always think its full house of quads here though. Make the overbet shove very profitable against thinking players.

    I'm really skeptical that a 1-2 NL player will be thinking about having the nut flush blocker and using that to bluff. I doubt they would think on that level. With a jack I think they tend to just call and hope to win a showdown with top pair.

    I probably would fold but it's a really disgusting spot and I would definitely struggle to fold here. But they usually aren't bluffing when they overbet in spots like this at 1-2 NL.

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