River Decision

jbruelsjbruels Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
3-5 NL at local casino

Hero in cutoff with Qc-Jd and $700 behind
Two limpers, hero raises to $25
Folds to limpers who call
Three players $80
Flop Jc-10d-7s
Checks to hero who bets $70
UTG calls (has me covered)
Heads up, $220
Turn 4d
Check to hero who bets $200
Villain tanks, eventually calls
Heads up, $620
River As
Villain bets $300

Villain is a reg, superstitious (changes seats because he wants better starting hands), grouses over mucking hands that turned into winners, enormous starting hand range, etc. Limp calling range is huge. A-J to J-7, any suited J, A-Q to Q-7, Q-10 to 10-6, any suited 10, 9-8, 9-7, 9-6, 5-6. Many of these hands, he would call the turn with including weaker J, any 10, turned open ender and/or flush draw. Pretty crumby river card. He may be capable of a river bluff like this, but not this time.

Comments

  • GabeyJGabeyJ Red Chipper Posts: 436 ✭✭✭
    KQ just got there real Hard
  • jbruelsjbruels Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
    Yeah, I insta-mucked. He looked at me and said, "Hey! I was ahead of you the whole way, I had A-J." So FOS.

    What do you think of my betting line?
  • OneManCold85OneManCold85 Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
    edited April 2016
    I was honestly wondering why you were betting pot the whole way? I feel like when you bet that much you really thin out the opponent's range, and make it way too strong. It sort of turns your top pair hand into a bluff. For instance, do you think he's calling with KT? or AT? If you're not getting value from the next best hands, then what are you hoping will happen?

    As the villain, I would be a little concerned (with a Ten, 99, or 97) when the second pot bet goes in on the turn and calling would make the pot almost 2x the effective stacks(pot 620, eff stacks 350)...

    I just feel like the only hands you're going to get action from with the huge bets are hands that beat you.

    Definitely a good fold vs the river shove though.
  • jbruelsjbruels Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
    Yeah, I'm maybe not giving villain enough credit here, thinking he would call with draws. Dial back bets to half or 2/3 pot so when I am beat it's not as devastating.
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    I was honestly wondering why you were betting pot the whole way? I feel like when you bet that much you really thin out the opponent's range, and make it way too strong. It sort of turns your top pair hand into a bluff. For instance, do you think he's calling with KT? or AT? If you're not getting value from the next best hands, then what are you hoping will happen?.
    Have to 2nd this. Maybe J9/J8 peel one, but out of position makes top pair with a gut shot fairly unappealing. No front door flush draws, I think I'd be closer to the in the $55 range as a cbet, but I bet 2/3rds probably to a fault with my cbets

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