Is it a bluff?

jbruelsjbruels Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
2-5 NL at local casino

Hero UTG +2 with 9h-9d and $600 behind
One limper and hero raises to $25
Button calls ($400), limper calls ($300)
Three players, $80
Flop 8c-6s-3d
Checks to hero who bets $65
Both players call
Three players, $310
Turn Ah
Checks to hero who checks, Button checks
Three players, $310
River As
Checks to hero who checks
Button bets $95, limper folds

Button is a well known, I’ve played with him for years. He’s a standard reg who plays too many hands, folds to much on later streets but has learned enough to be aggressive and to throw a bluff out now and then. My hand has only one street of value and I thought it would be good to take it on the flop before some card comes to beat me or kill action. I don’t think the A is a good card for me. I considered turning my hand into a bluff but would have preferred a 10 or 7, maybe a 5 for this. Also, there are a lot of A-X suited hands in villain’s range that just made 2-pair as well as A-10, J or Q. The 2nd A on the river, I’m feeling pretty good about my hand. Draws aren’t calling any more, maybe 8’s but I decided to check anyway. Normally, I insta-muck when big bets like this come out on the turn and river but button’s bet here didn’t make any sense to me. Are there enough bluff’s in this guy’s range to justify a 4:1 call?

Comments

  • Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 666 ✭✭✭
    I think you call here. To me his size is telling: $95? Why didn't he bet the turn if he had an Ace?
  • BenLeewoodBenLeewood Red Chipper Posts: 285 ✭✭
    Seems like he was on the draw. 45s makes a lot of sense. These are great hands to play on the button. He bricked out though. He probably didn't fear the Ace since nobody bet the turn.

    Now he has a 5 high and must bet to have any chance at winning the pot. This would explain only betting 1/3 of the pot. It's not only saving him money in case he's called, but it's disguised as a "please call me" value bet.
  • BenLeewoodBenLeewood Red Chipper Posts: 285 ✭✭
    So oblige him and call
  • jbruelsjbruels Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
    After tanking for awhile I thought there was a chance he could have had a weak A he didn't feel confident betting on the turn. He could have turned 2 pair and thought he was being tricky by checking back but now wanted value from filling up. But, more than anything I was thinking a busted draw that was taking a stab. I called and he mucked immediately. The dealer pushed me the pot and I didn't even show my cards.

    What do you guys think of my betting line? Maybe too much spew into two players? Would betting the turn be turning my hand into a bluff and would that be so bad?
  • Jimmy3150Jimmy3150 Red Chipper Posts: 362 ✭✭
    I think you played the hand perfectly, I agree with your 1 street of value analysis and betting the flop was definitely the right street before overcards are likely to come. Betting a 2nd street out of position on the turn into two players who called the flop (& the overcard comes) is not a good idea IMO.

    This bluff line is used so frequently at the 1/2 games I play in that I almost insta-call whenever I see it now. I'm not always right but it's definitely profitable over a big enough sample size.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,123 ✭✭✭✭
    You played the hand fine imo. If you're unsure about his river bet, think about how your hand looks from his perspective. It looks like maybe you took a stab at it with a draw or weak pair on the flop and then gave up. Sure, he may have an ace here occasionally but I think it's definitely a call with how it played it.
  • GabeyJGabeyJ Red Chipper Posts: 436 ✭✭✭
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Jj and tt come to mind as well as some 77 55 44 hands that peeled. I don't put him on ax here very often as he would be calling as pure float 3 ways. Imo its pretty close but only lose to tt and jj but beat majority of his range and any time your range is 50% or more specially get 4:1 makes it a call.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Reason i say its close is also because you block a lot of possible draws 97s & T9s.
  • Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 666 ✭✭✭
    GabeyJ wrote: »
    Bet turn

    Agreed.

    I disagree with your notion that the Ace was not a good card for you. I think it's a great card for you. You opened with $25 from early position. You have all sorts of AK and AQ here.
  • jbruelsjbruels Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
    Skors3 wrote: »
    GabeyJ wrote: »
    Bet turn

    Agreed.

    I disagree with your notion that the Ace was not a good card for you. I think it's a great card for you. You opened with $25 from early position. You have all sorts of AK and AQ here.

    I guess I get this idea but I'm stumped on coming up with better hands to fold. Pocket 10's or J's, maybe... But, those hand are donking or raising on the flop. I mean K's or Q's might be playing stupid and trying to sandbag three ways, but guys in my games don't play like that. I suppose the bet could be for protection, getting 8's or 6's to fold and not drawing out on the river. But, I don't generally like to play that way.

    I really like turning weak pocket pairs into bluffs with good board roll outs. I make good money doing that. But, in this particular hand, I'm having a hard time seeing it.
  • GabeyJGabeyJ Red Chipper Posts: 436 ✭✭✭
    What do you do when you have Ak on
    This flop? Or Ajs? Then what are you doing on the turn?
  • Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 666 ✭✭✭
    jbruels wrote: »
    I really like turning weak pocket pairs into bluffs with good board roll outs. I make good money doing that. But, in this particular hand, I'm having a hard time seeing it.

    I'm not following you here. Are you saying you like to catch bluffs by other players with hands such as this, in this spot?
  • jbruelsjbruels Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
    edited April 2016
    Pocket 6's are rarely good by the river unimproved. On a flop like 10-3-2 with two suits my bet on the flop is mostly for value. If a Q comes on the turn and I bet, now I'm turning my hand into a bluff hoping for folds from 10's, pocket 9 to 6's. I might also do it if the turn is a 5 as a semi bluff.

    If I bet the turn in my hand of question, it's similar but I'm having a hard time thinking of what my target hands are. I'm clearly not betting for value. What better hands am I wanting to fold if I bet the turn?
  • jbruelsjbruels Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
    GabeyJ wrote: »
    What do you do when you have Ak on
    This flop? Or Ajs? Then what are you doing on the turn?


    So, what you are saying is betting the turn is mostly just for balance. If I expect to get paid with my value hands here, I need to bet my weaker hands. I get that. I guess I'm just thinking that my hand isn't so weak. I've got showdown value on this board, but only if I can actually get to showdown. I'm not so sure it's good if I turn 9-9 here into 7-2. BUT, I'll concede that into two players my hand probably doesn't have as much value as I think it has.
  • Steve007Steve007 Red Chipper Posts: 363 ✭✭✭
    edited April 2016
    I actually think villain played this the way a lot of bad players would play it. He called with an ace PF because weak players love aces, he called the flop either with an ace and a pair, or even ace high so he might hit an ace on the turn and get top pair. On the turn he hits and there aren't any flush draws out there to scare him, so he does what a lot of weak players do when they hit a monster. They slowplay. And then on the river he is trying to make sure he gets paid at least something for it. And you showed weakness by checking twice so a bigger bet from him is likely to get a fold, especially when it looks like he has trips or a boat.

    One thing to ask yourself is what his bet sizes looked like when he bluffed in the past? Did he bet big to try and scare his opponents out of the pot? Have you seen him make bluffs with small bets like this before? The types of bet sizes he used when bluffing in the past would affect my decision here.

    In addition to 54 I think 97 and T9 are possible here. I could see him calling the flop with T9 thinking he has two overcards and a gutshot. Since this guy is loose I could even see him calling the flop with two overcards thinking you missed with your AK on that board. So he calls, thinking he has 6 outs to top pair, thinking you're just c-betting with air, and maybe even thinking he might outplay you or even bluff you later.

    Because there are so many overcards he might call you on the flop with, he could have a much wider range of hands than I originally thought.

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