April showers bring may flowers part 2

AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
As some of my recent post have showed I have been dealing with some variance throughout the past 2 weeks (47 hrs). Finally had a session where I was on the good side of variance and has brought me back to a positive month. Below are the two biggest pots I played.

Hand #1
This hand was during my first orbit so no reads on the table yet, but they all seemed social and a little fishy from the way they were talking.

$1/$2/$2 (open is $5)
four calls to hero in SB

Hero ($243) :Ah :Qc Raise to $35
EP calls $35
HJ calls $35

3 ways to flop
Flop ($115) :Qh :Qd :Ts
Hero ($208): bets $45
EP: calls $45
HJ: folds

Turn ($115) :Qh :Qd :Ts :Jc
Hero ($163): check
EP: bets $100
Hero: all in $163
EP: calls $63

Analysis:
Board is rainbow so I do not mind my small bet on the flop having crushed the flop given the SPR (2). On the turn I figure he could have TJ, KJ, KQ, AT, TK, then have me crushed with QT or QJ, but I am never folding here obviously. Stack size is a little strange at 1.5 pot size. If I do have him beat he is basically committed to calling my shove for $63 more with the range I gave him.

Hand #2
About 4 hrs into the session and there are 2 big fish. One guy was calling $5 pre (83s) utg then short stack would shove after several callers for $76 and he would snap call 83s pre for 38bb. A lot of pots have been raised to $25 - $35 and have gone 4-5 ways. One player was check min raising turn vs $25-$50 bets with 2nd pair no kicker or blockers. It was the strangest / fishiest table I have ever seen.

Anyways onto the hand. Up against the whale of the table who had the 83s earlier playing 90-95% of his hands. He has open folded a couple times which I guess is 72, 84, 73o, type hands. If its suited he is 100% playing it though.

UTG: raise to $14
MP fish ($600) calls $14
Hero HJ :2c :2d calls $14
SB Whale: calls $14
BB: calls $14

FLOP ($71) :2h :4h :Td
Whale bets $15
BB calls $15
MP folds
Hero: Raise to $75
Whale calls $60
BB: folds

Turn: ($236) :2h :4h :Td :Ts
Whale bets $65
Hero: calls $65

River: ($366) :2h :4h :Td :Ts :6s
Whale bets $100
Hero: all in
Whale ($300ish behind / hero covers) calls

Analysis:
Flop obvious raise has to be made here against fish. sizing is a little big at 5x but is still less than pot and the players are definitely fishy. Probably could have gone up to $85. I think fish continues here with all gut shots A3, A5, 56, Tx, all hearts, maybe some 4x as well.

Turn:
Once he calls flop and leads the turn I am either putting him on flush draw or Tx and majority of his Tx is going to be T8+. I do not see the point in raising once he takes the initiative and I can still shove river given the pot size. If he has Tx and flush comes I think he is still big enough fish to call any Tx. If he has a flush draw or gut shot I obviously do not mind him catching up.

River:
Obvious shove as only 44, T6, T4, beat me but I think he shoves all those hands or re pops me with 44 so have his range pretty crushed. I guess I could represent a missed flush draw as well, but I am never bluffing a whale who I think has trips.

Comments

  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,936 -
    could you raise the turn in hand2 and still get him to continue with flush draws?

    (also, it's best to stick to 1 hand/thread as multiple hands in a single thread get confusing)
    My new book lays out the playbook for AK. Grab your copy and start Optimizing Ace King!
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    SplitSuit wrote: »
    could you raise the turn in hand2 and still get him to continue with flush draws?

    (also, it's best to stick to 1 hand/thread as multiple hands in a single thread get confusing)

    Thought about making it $165-$175 on the turn and I think he still calls flush draws. Works out the same as i would have initiative and still jam 300 on the river. If he does have flush draw then i lose a lot of value by not raising turn. I am thinking its more of 1\3 of the time flush draw and 2\3rds Tx. I think both continue vs a raise but is it better to just let him barrel? Maybe i got lucky and worked out this time. Probably over thinking this hand vs a whale and i should just be bombing every street.

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