Hand #7 XX//Ad 8s, 6s

billconklinbillconklin Red Chipper Posts: 97 ✭✭
Solid LAG opens UTG for $12, Called by Boring LAG in MP1, 3-Bet by Hero in CO for $50.
Solid Lag calls, Boring one folds.

I made a tentative O Range for Villain.
Hero adopted a 3-Betting range :
JJ+; AK+, AQA+ AJs, KQs
A2s-A5s were added for bluff potential
5% Range; 76 combos

FLOP: :Ad :8s :6s
AA,AKo-AQo,AKs-AJs,A5s-A2s,KsQs
67%, 43 comb: Set, mostly TP, and a few flush combos
Hero bets $75, Villain calls

TURN: :Jh
AA,AKo-AQo,AKs-AJs,KsQs
100%, 30 com
2pr, flush draws and prs
Both check

RIVER: :4h
AA,AKo-AQo,AKs-AJs,KQs
97%, 29 combos
Tag bets $150 into pot of $265
Hero way behind Villain's range, which includes 3 sets, many more TP.
Hero folds

Comments

  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 789 ✭✭✭
    Opening range (3 bet): JTs would be my weakest Broadway holding, JJ+, ATs+, JTs+, A4s, A5s, 76s+, AQo+, KQo, Totaling 112 combos for 8% 3 bet.

    FLOP: :Ad :8s :6s

    Down to 94 combos after the flop. Checking weak aces and middle pair. Betting KK, AT+, A4/A5 pair+FD combos, and all other flush draws. I will also be betting some hands that are complete air (for the moment) - BDFD. Betting 64 out of 94 combos for 68%.

    TURN: :Jh

    Down to 60 combos after the turn. Due to a low SPR, I think I agree with checking here most of the time as a bet would be placing close to 2/3 of my starting stack in the middle, essentially committing us to the pot. I would give some consideration to betting the following hands and would be them from time to time; AJ+, 10d9d and 10s9s, As5s, As4s. Since I'm checking here, I'm bringing all 60 remaining combos to the river that I have remaining from the flop.

    RIVER: :4h

    Calling with: AQ/AK and consider making a thin call with AT, KK, and QQ. Raising sets, and 2 pair. Overall call/raise 49 of 60 combos for 82%. With us being up against a solid TAG, I think it may be reasonable given his line to at least consider making a thin call on the river occasionally. He only called our 3 bet preflop which caps his range and he played passively until the river which leads me to believe that there are some medium pocket pairs in his range and possibly QQ as well as some missed spade draws with weaker aces.
  • AcesaladAcesalad Red Chipper Posts: 237 ✭✭
    PREFLOP: RANGE
    AA-QQ,AKo-AQo,AKs-AQs,A5s-A2s,KQs,JTs,T9s,98s
    (%-form 6.2%)(82 combos)
    Against a Solid TAG I am going to be 3 betting with a pretty tight range but have some weaker hands as bluffs.

    :Ad :8s :6s

    FLOP RANGE
    AA-QQ,AKo-AQo,AKs-AQs,A5s-A2s,JTs,T9s,98s

    (%-of previous range 75.8%)(# combos 47)
    Here I am betting a large percentage of my range because my opponent checked and This flop hits a lot of my range.

    :Jh

    TURN: RANGE
    AsKs-AsQs,As5s-As2s,KsQs,JsTs,T9s
    Checking back some of my weaker hands here. A lot of draws moslty

    (%-of previous range 24.0%)(# combos 12 )

    :4h

    RIVER: RANGE
    As5s,As3s,As2s,KsQs,JsTs,T9s

    Folding all of the misses here. Looking him up with TPTK (and good kicker) and my 2 pair that just hit.
    (%-of previous range 75%)(# combos 9)
  • OutlierOutlier Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
    PREFLOP RANGE: 4.5%, 59 combos
    KK+, AK, A2-A5s, 87s, 98s, T9s
    Strongest Pair I call with: QQ
    Weakest Broadway I 3-bet: AKo
    I'm not 3-betting weaker broadway cards vs a Solid TAG who opens from EP
    3-betting preflop vs TAGs is an area of my game I'm weak in. I sense there are more possibilities there than my 3-betting range here suggests...

    FLOP: :Ad :8s :6s
    Hero bets $75, Villain calls
    FLOP RANGE: 70%, 33 combos
    AhAc, KK, QQ, A2-A5ss, T9
    (betting only one combo of top set to get value from A-Xss)

    TURN: :Jh
    Both check
    TURN RANGE: 97%, 32 combos
    KK, QQ, A2-A5ss, T9


    RIVER: :4h
    TAG bets $150 into pot of $265, Hero folds
    RIVER RANGE: 75%, 24 combos
    AK, KK, 50% of QQ, A2ss, A3ss, A5ss
    fold 50% of QQ (combos containing Qs, which means villain can't have Qs-X spade draw), T9

  • OutlierOutlier Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
    @Ninjah @Acesalad @billconklin Can you explain why you are 3-betting many Broadways (AQo, KQo, JTs) preflop? Or maybe more precisely, are you 3-betting hands like AQo, KQo, and JTs for value?

    I'm trying to get more solid with my 3-bet ranges. I tend to 3-bet a wider variety of broadway cards vs loose openers, but these hands don't in my mind do well vs a TAG's EP opening range.
  • BadFrog1BadFrog1 Red Chipper Posts: 123 ✭✭
    Most of these 3bet ranges seem far too wide to me. What do we expect a "solid TAG" to call with after opening UTG. I'd be surprised to see any pair worse than JJ or broadway worse than AQ. Given that read, my 3bet range is:

    Value (28 combos): KK+, AK
    Bluff (20 combos): KQo, A5s, A4s
    Total 48 combos, 3.6%

    I'd be very interested to hear arguments in favor of the wider ranges that others have shared.
  • AcesaladAcesalad Red Chipper Posts: 237 ✭✭
    Outlier wrote: »
    @Ninjah @Acesalad @billconklin Can you explain why you are 3-betting many Broadways (AQo, KQo, JTs) preflop? Or maybe more precisely, are you 3-betting hands like AQo, KQo, and JTs for value?

    I'm trying to get more solid with my 3-bet ranges. I tend to 3-bet a wider variety of broadway cards vs loose openers, but these hands don't in my mind do well vs a TAG's EP opening range.

    @Outlier I personally did not have KQo in my range. I am betting QQ+, AK, AQ and KQs for value. JTs is there because I included JTs-98s (along with A5s-A2s) to polarize my 3betting range.
  • Briax24Briax24 Red Chipper Posts: 44 ✭✭
    HAND #7

    PRE-FLOP: Range: AA-TT,AKo-AQo,KQo,AKs-AJs,A5s-A2s,KQs,87s,76s
    (% of Form: 7.99%) (Combos: 106)

    What is the strongest pair you would call with? 99

    What is the weakest broadway you would 3-bet? KQ or AJ. I left my AJs in there. My assumption here is that both Villains will be defending more due to my image. The Solid Tag will use a mix of 4-bets and light calls while the boring tag will probably just call a bit lighter most of the time. This leads me to believe I should widen my value 3-bet ranger here a little.

    :Ad :8s :6s

    FLOP: Range: JJ-TT,AKo-AQo,AKs-AJs,A5s-A2s,KsQs,KsQh,KsQc,KsQd
    (% of previous range: 62.5%) (Combos:55)

    Top Pair Weak Kicker: I bet all top pair.

    KK: I don’t bet KK here it is tough to extract value except for from flush draws which have pretty good value anyway.

    Air: KQ with Ks

    :Jh



    TURN: Range: TT,AQo,AQs,A5s-A2s,KsQh,KsQc,KsQd
    (% of previous range: 64.7%) (Combos: 33)
    Would you keep betting the turn with:

    Top pair strong kicker: I keep betting my AK but Start checking AQ unless it is a flush draw as well.

    Second Pair: No

    Air: I don’t have any pure air, I am betting with KQss only as a bluff.

    Note: I don’t have really any bluffs here. My reason is that I think this board is really good for my opponent’s range after calling a three-bet then check calling flop.

    :4h

    RIVER: Range: A4s (% of previous range: 6.25%) (Combos: 2)
    I am folding everything listed here. I don’t think the Villain has very many bluffs in his range. If he knows I am folding this much he should bet everything. Sometimes I am going to get bluffed here but I think given what I perceive Villains range to be he is very value heavy.
  • Briax24Briax24 Red Chipper Posts: 44 ✭✭
    Ninjah wrote: »
    Calling with: AQ/AK and consider making a thin call with AT, KK, and QQ. Raising sets, and 2 pair. Overall call/raise 49 of 60 combos for 82%. With us being up against a solid TAG, I think it may be reasonable given his line to at least consider making a thin call on the river occasionally. He only called our 3 bet preflop which caps his range and he played passively until the river which leads me to believe that there are some medium pocket pairs in his range and possibly QQ as well as some missed spade draws with weaker aces.

    I expect him to bet some of those pairs but its only a few combos, probably discounted. At this point I would say he's betting all his top pair and better. It doesn't look to me like he has many missed spade draws. I just don't see him calling wide enough pre-flop to have a lot of bluffs. I'd be interested to know what you think he calls with pre. Then maybe go from there.

  • mbehr1983mbehr1983 Red Chipper Posts: 635 ✭✭✭
    Hand #7
    3bet range AA-QQ,AKo-AQo,AKs-ATs,A5s-A4s,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s(6.18%)(82) combos
    I am flatting 77 plus hear IP JTs due to the TAG may put me on KK+ and fold

    F :Ad :6s :8s

    AA-QQ,AKo-AQo,AKs-ATs,A5s-A4s,T9s,KsQs,QsJs,JsTs (87% of previous range)(67 combos)
    Since he checked to me and called I would probably stab with weak aces here to get worse to fold.
    KK bet one time
    I would also cbet my flush draws here would probably be my only air

    T :Jh

    AA,AKo-AQo,AKs-ATs,A5s-A4s,T9s,KsQs,QsJs,JsTs (80% previous)(64 combos)
    I am def betting 2 pair and TPSK
    I am checking QQ-KK
    Air I am checking

    R :4h

    AA,AKo-AQo,AKs-ATs,A5s-A4s,T9s,KsQs,QsJs,JsTs (84% previous) (63 combos
    I am folding A5 and calling with A4
    Second pair fold
    Third pair fold

    Its been a while if y'all good tell me if on right track or not that would be great
  • GetfreeGetfree Red Chipper Posts: 10
    Hey guys, for those of you that chose to play suited A-rag, why did you decide to 3 bet with these hands as opposed to A7-A9 or gappers? I'm just catching up with new trends after being out some time... did I miss the memo somewhere?
  • NuttedNutterNuttedNutter Red Chipper Posts: 44
    HAND #7

    Strongest Pair I'd call with? JJ
    Weakest Broadway to 3bet? JTs

    RANGE: AA-77,AKo,AKs-AJs,A5s,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s

    %FORM: 6.94%
    COMBOS#: 92

    :Ad :8s :6s

    Check or bet w/...

    TPWK? Bet. I think a solid tag that covers w/ another player in between who was a boring tag shows up on this flop w/o an Ace. I think if he had any strong Ace like AJs+ he would bet for value/protection a lot due to the flop wetness. He could also ch-call a hand like AJs-ATs as well some of the time. I could've 3bet a hand like Ts9s or KsQs for example and vill would want to protect his equity/bet for value against my draws.

    KK? Bet. If I follow the same logic, i.e. solid tag from EP1 w/ previous boring tag in mp1 and me in CO his range should be pretty snug being that he called our 3bet pre. If he had any good Ace he'd likely bet it due to the flop texture. If he has 99-KK, (KK unlikely since we have KK and he likely would've 4bet pre) he would ch-call flop oop.

    There's a possibility that he's going for a c-r w/ a big pair+draw hand like AsKs-AsQs and if that happens we'd evaluate from there. But that's only a small part of his range like 3%.

    Air? Check. I think he will continue in this spot often enough with a decent amount of equity w/ hands like Ts9s-KsQs, Js9s-Ks9s, QsTs-KsTs, KsJs and 99-QQ, maybe peels 1 street w/ 77 so I wouldn't attempt to bluff with absolutely zero equity. I'd consider a bet as a semi-bluff w/ a good draw perhaps, but not total air no.

    RANGE: AA-88,AKo,AKs-ATs,KsQs,QsJs,JsTs,Ts9s
    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 83.6%
    COMBOS#: 61

    T: :Jh

    3bet>Bet Flop>continue betting turn w/...

    TPSK? Continue betting turn w/ AQ-AK. We lose the AJ that could be going for a c-r though that's questionable since the turn run out hasn't changed the fact that draws are still possible T9s just improved in our range for example so EP1 solid tag would still have more reason to just bet turn standard vs. c-r. A c-r doesn't seem to accomplish much as I'd likely end up folding hands like AQ-AK, KK-99 and would be more weary of continuing w/ draws facing a c-r vs. facing a turn bet.

    2nd Pair? I think I'd continue betting QQ-KK at this point. Reason is I still think any strong Ace would've bet flop. Maybe ATs ch-calls flop and checks turn, but I think AJ+ bets flop and continues betting turn. So I think at this point he doesn't have an Ace in his range and that more likely he's on a flushdraw w/ a suited broadway hand.

    He could have picked up a Jxs+draw type hand like J9s-JTs, QJs-KJs which we beat and can extract value from. His QQ-KK should be scared that I have AJ+ myself. Those hands should fold a decent amount to a good size bet or worse case scenario we tie however it's less likely anyways that he has those since we have QQ-KK ourselves. TT-99 are likely folding turn.

    Air? Check behind. The bulk of his range which appears to be good flushdraws or Jxs+fd which will continue calling no value in betting turn as a bluff as there's no fold equity.

    RANGE: AA-JJ,88,AKo,AKs-ATs,KsQs,QsJs,JsTs,Ts9s
    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 78.9%
    COMBOS#: 45

    R: :4h

    EP1 bets $150 fold or call w/..

    TPWK? The worst TP I'd have is ATs. Vs a range of Ts9s-KsQs, Js9s-Ks9s, KsTs-KsJs, QsTs. W/ ATs our hand serves mainly as a bluff catcher and in this case against a busted flush draw that just bluffed w/ no other way to win we have enough equity to call $150 so about a 2/3 psb we only need to be right that it was a bluff to break even like 28% of the time? And I'm showing to have 52% equity so more than enough equity to call. Hope I did that correctly?

    2nd Pair? QQ-KK also show the same amount of equity 52% vs. a the busted flush draw riv bluff range. I'd call.

    3rd Pair or worse? I don't have 3rd pair or worse left in my range by riv if I bet the majority of previous range on turn. TT-99 would have little but at least some SD value on turn so if I ch-behind turn w those hands facing the same action vs. the busted fd range I have 31% equity and vs the bet size I think I'd still be correct in calling if I only need to be correct 28% of the time to break even?

    (Would really like feedback on this last river section especially I'm still working on fundamentals getting pot odds type questions down pat ty)

    RANGE: AA-88,AKo,AKs-ATs
    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 93%
    COMBOS#: 53






  • uncleB118rusuncleB118rus Red Chipper Posts: 33
    HAND #7

    Strongest Pair I'd call with? JJ
    Weakest Broadway to 3bet? JTs

    RANGE: AA-77,AKo,AKs-AJs,A5s,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s

    %FORM: 6.94%
    COMBOS#: 92

    :Ad :8s :6s

    Check or bet w/...

    TPWK? Bet. I think a solid tag that covers w/ another player in between who was a boring tag shows up on this flop w/o an Ace. I think if he had any strong Ace like AJs+ he would bet for value/protection a lot due to the flop wetness. He could also ch-call a hand like AJs-ATs as well some of the time. I could've 3bet a hand like Ts9s or KsQs for example and vill would want to protect his equity/bet for value against my draws.

    KK? Bet. If I follow the same logic, i.e. solid tag from EP1 w/ previous boring tag in mp1 and me in CO his range should be pretty snug being that he called our 3bet pre. If he had any good Ace he'd likely bet it due to the flop texture. If he has 99-KK, (KK unlikely since we have KK and he likely would've 4bet pre) he would ch-call flop oop.

    There's a possibility that he's going for a c-r w/ a big pair+draw hand like AsKs-AsQs and if that happens we'd evaluate from there. But that's only a small part of his range like 3%.

    Air? Check. I think he will continue in this spot often enough with a decent amount of equity w/ hands like Ts9s-KsQs, Js9s-Ks9s, QsTs-KsTs, KsJs and 99-QQ, maybe peels 1 street w/ 77 so I wouldn't attempt to bluff with absolutely zero equity. I'd consider a bet as a semi-bluff w/ a good draw perhaps, but not total air no.

    RANGE: AA-88,AKo,AKs-ATs,KsQs,QsJs,JsTs,Ts9s
    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 83.6%
    COMBOS#: 61

    T: :Jh

    3bet>Bet Flop>continue betting turn w/...

    TPSK? Continue betting turn w/ AQ-AK. We lose the AJ that could be going for a c-r though that's questionable since the turn run out hasn't changed the fact that draws are still possible T9s just improved in our range for example so EP1 solid tag would still have more reason to just bet turn standard vs. c-r. A c-r doesn't seem to accomplish much as I'd likely end up folding hands like AQ-AK, KK-99 and would be more weary of continuing w/ draws facing a c-r vs. facing a turn bet.

    2nd Pair? I think I'd continue betting QQ-KK at this point. Reason is I still think any strong Ace would've bet flop. Maybe ATs ch-calls flop and checks turn, but I think AJ+ bets flop and continues betting turn. So I think at this point he doesn't have an Ace in his range and that more likely he's on a flushdraw w/ a suited broadway hand.

    He could have picked up a Jxs+draw type hand like J9s-JTs, QJs-KJs which we beat and can extract value from. His QQ-KK should be scared that I have AJ+ myself. Those hands should fold a decent amount to a good size bet or worse case scenario we tie however it's less likely anyways that he has those since we have QQ-KK ourselves. TT-99 are likely folding turn.

    Air? Check behind. The bulk of his range which appears to be good flushdraws or Jxs+fd which will continue calling no value in betting turn as a bluff as there's no fold equity.

    RANGE: AA-JJ,88,AKo,AKs-ATs,KsQs,QsJs,JsTs,Ts9s
    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 78.9%
    COMBOS#: 45

    R: :4h

    EP1 bets $150 fold or call w/..

    TPWK? The worst TP I'd have is ATs. Vs a range of Ts9s-KsQs, Js9s-Ks9s, KsTs-KsJs, QsTs. W/ ATs our hand serves mainly as a bluff catcher and in this case against a busted flush draw that just bluffed w/ no other way to win we have enough equity to call $150 so about a 2/3 psb we only need to be right that it was a bluff to break even like 28% of the time? And I'm showing to have 52% equity so more than enough equity to call. Hope I did that correctly?

    2nd Pair? QQ-KK also show the same amount of equity 52% vs. a the busted flush draw riv bluff range. I'd call.

    3rd Pair or worse? I don't have 3rd pair or worse left in my range by riv if I bet the majority of previous range on turn. TT-99 would have little but at least some SD value on turn so if I ch-behind turn w those hands facing the same action vs. the busted fd range I have 31% equity and vs the bet size I think I'd still be correct in calling if I only need to be correct 28% of the time to break even?

    (Would really like feedback on this last river section especially I'm still working on fundamentals getting pot odds type questions down pat ty)

    RANGE: AA-88,AKo,AKs-ATs
    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 93%
    COMBOS#: 53






    The strategy seems interesting to me, i mean betting TPWK + KK-QQ for value and according to your logic it makes sence, but the table dynamics is a little bit different in this kinda situation. It says that you've been very aggressive for the last time, and everybody got sick of it. Dont you think that in this situation vill can have AK-AJ and dont bet, trying to induce. And only after your check on turn, he figures out that maybe you've got a draw hand, or some kinda week A, or JJ-KK and maybe thats the time to bet for value. If thats the case - vill crushes your range imo.
  • AcesaladAcesalad Red Chipper Posts: 237 ✭✭
    In this situation what is:
    The strongest pair you would call with? JJ
    The weakest Broadway you would 3bet with? AKs
    %-FORM 2.3%, COMBOS 30
    Range: AA-QQ,AKs,A5s-A4s
    I play a very tight 3betting range against tight players.
    Only EP1 calls preflop. There are 2 players to a $115 flop
    Flop: :AD: :8S: :6S:
    EP1 checks and you bet $75.
    Think about the hands you would 3bet with preflop. When the preflop opener checks would you check or bet with:
    Top pair + Weak Kicker? Bet As5s,As4s
    KK? Check
    Air? Bet
    %-Previous Range 50%, COMBOS 12
    Range: AA,AKs,A5s-A4s
    EP1 calls your flop bet. There are 2 players to a $265 turn
    EP1 checks and you check behind
    Turn: :JH:
    Think about the range you would 3bet and then bet the flop with. Would you continue betting the turn with:
    Top Pair + Strong Kicker? Bet
    Second Pair? Check
    Air? Check
    %-Previous Range 0%, COMBOS 0
    Range: None
    I have a very strong range. I would bet 100 of it on this turn, therefore none of my range fits the scenario anymore.
    There are 2 players to a $265 river
    River: :4H:
    EP1 bets $150 and you fold.
    After taking this line and facing a $150 bet on the river, are you likely to fold or call with:
    Top Pair + Weak Kicker? Fold
    Second Pair? Fold
    Third Pair or worse? Fold
    %-Previous Range 0%, COMBOS 0
    Range: None
    I may have played this hand overly nitty but I consider myself a TAG and I try to avoid getting into it with other TAG's without a hand and concentrate on getting into it with the weak players.
  • Nathan LNathan L Red Chipper Posts: 1
    This seems key to me: "$1/$2. You have been very aggressive over the last few hours. Nobody has contested you yet, but they are noticeably fed up with you running over the table."

    It says they haven't contested you yet so I think we should keep hammering them until they do something about it. We are on the CO so I think this is a good spot to apply pressure with a mix of hands like Broadways, PPs, and a few AXs and suited gappers.

    Hero Range: AA-55,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-ATs,A5s,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs,T8s,97s,86s,75s
    12%, 160 combos

    Flop: :Ad :8s :6s

    Betting TP good kicker, 2pair, sets, flush draws and OESDs.
    Checking TPwk, PPs, and complete air with the intention of betting on the turn with checked to again.

    Range: AA,88,66,AKo-AJo,AKs-AJs,As5s,97s,86s,75s,KsQs,KsJs,QsJs,JsTs
    38%, 61 combos

    Turn: :Jh

    Probably the only hand I'm checking here AQo and AQs. I'm betting AK and AJ is now 2 pair. Still betting all 2 pairs, sets, flush draws and OESDs. I'm probably putting Villian's range at AA-99, 66, AK-AT, AsXs, KsQs.

    Range: AQo, AQs (not spades)
    18%, 11 combos

    River: :4h
    Villain calls turn and then bets $150 in $265.

    This constitutes a "big" bet according to Ed so I'm folding AQ here. I would probably look him up for <$100. I don't see $150 bet in 1-2 being a bluff very often here.
  • MattPMattP Red Chipper Posts: 51 ✭✭
    Preflop range for the 3bet:
    AK, AQ, TT+ (4.7%, 62 combos)
    (much wider for calling, but it's asking what I three-bet with, right?)

    Flop: :AD: :8S: :6S:
    My range: same as preflop
    AK, AQ, TT+

    Betting KK (and the rest of my range, for that matter). I don't have any TPWK in my range, so N/A there. I don't have Air in my range, so N/A there.

    Turn: :Jh

    If he's called my preflop 3-bet and my flop CB, I'm giving him credit for an ace here most likely, or maybe broadway spades. Not betting the turn again with TT, JJ, or QQ most likely. Everything else in my range is crushing this board, so I'd bet it. Don't have air or second pair left in my range, so that doesn't apply.

    River: :4h
    Villain bets $150 in $265.

    h2ts6odwb4ql.gif


    Looks like a value bet, but I suppose he could have some missed draws in his range, too. But what makes the most sense to me here is a big ace. I'm not thinking AJ is likely. If he turned two pair, I'd have expected him to bet it. But maybe he was trying to set up a check-raise? I hate spots like this. Really not sure what I make of this, but my range is down to AA, JJ, AK, and AQ. Obviously the first two love any action, but let's say I'm holding AQ and AK here, I'm still calling. If he shows up with AJ or a set, then good hand. But I can imagine a lot weaker stuff still in his range: AT, AXs... Based on the introduction, he might think AT or A9s is good here, expecting that we're playing fast and loose.
  • Laurence CLaurence C Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
    This is a very interesting hand to analyze in my opinion. I decided to work backwards after completing this exercise.
    My range for the 3-Bet pre-flop: AA-QQ,AJo,KQo,AKs,A5s-A4s,T8s,97s
    62 combos.

    Flop: :AD: :8S: :6S:
    Here's where working backwards allowed me to ask this question, would I CBet here with KK or QQ against this flop or check?
    Obviously, Ax is in Villain's range, so this becomes quite a problem since Villain is a solid TAG. His check on the flop doesn't necessary mean weakness, he could be dominated by AK, so his decision to check his Ax on the flop is correct.
    Hero bets $75 into a $115 pot, therefore, his bluffing folding equity is 40%, that is, Villain would have to fold more than 40% for Hero to show a profit.
    Villain called the flop bet. This could mean that he has a strong hand worth of calling, so what could he possible have in his range to call the flop bet?
    My thoughts is that Villain must have Ax in his range, and Villain must perceive that our range must contain some Air, so Villain decides to defend his folding frequency by calling Hero, remember Villain is a solid TAG.
    This creates a huge problem, it means that villain must have some blockers in his range, mainly A or K blockers. Therefore, the only reason why Villain is calling is because he believes that Hero's CBet has some air or semi-bluff hands, gutshots and flush draws.

    Turn: :JH:
    This is card turns the gutshot 97s into OESD. Because Villain checked and Hero checked on the turn card, Villain can easily discret 97s in Hero's range. So Hero's range is narrowed to: AA-QQ,AJo,AKs,A5s-A4s
    Also, if Hero has AA or Ax, he would fire a second barrel on the turn. Because Hero didn't barrel on the turn, this indicates that Hero's range is now: KK, QQ and air.
    Looking at our range from the pre-flop, the air cards would be: 97s.
    This is very unlikely, if Hero had 9s 7s, he has a huge draw, OESD and flush. So Hero would bet on the turn. Because Hero checked, it means that Hero's range has become more defined.

    River: River: :4H:
    Villain bets $150 into a $265 pot, the bluff frequency is 36%. So Hero needs to defend more than 36% to make a positive EV, looking at Flopzilla, Hero has only TP 17.6% of the time. Easy fold.