Hand #11

JuliaJulia Red Chipper Posts: 5
I have villain flatting pre with AQo, KQo, KJs-K9s, QJs-QTs, JTs-J9s, T9s-54s, T8x-97s, AJs-A2s, and 88-22. 12.9%, 158 combos. On flop, the LAG raises with AQo, all of his hands that connect with the flop, 97s thru 65s as semi-bluffs, and 88-77, A6x, A4s, and 54s for value. He doesn't raise 66 or 44. 76 combos for 50%. On the turn, I think he jams all FDs, pairs, and even gutshots, given his description. 36 combos, 50%. facing his jam, I need 32% equity to call. I'm showing I have 72% equity against his range. This is because 75s isn't in the preflop range I assigned him, 44 and 66 wouldn't have raised the flop, so the only hands he has that are beating me are 88, A4s, and 54s. With all the one pairs and draws I assigned him, I calculate the call is +EV $688.


  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,069 -
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  • mbehr1983mbehr1983 Red Chipper Posts: 635 ✭✭✭
    Hand 11 already I am still on 3 need to get busy
  • Nehme GedeonNehme Gedeon Red Chipper Posts: 3
    on Hand 11, Equilab showed that i had 62.09% equity against the range I've assigned the villan. i needed 31.25% to call based on pot odds. I guess the only difference from the range you've assigned to your villain is i eliminated 77 & 88 from his range preflop, as i thought he would definitely have 3-bet with 77 or 88.
  • lenetwizz@gmail.com[email protected] Red Chipper Posts: 2

    Villain PREFLOP RANGE (%-27)(# 358)
    66-22, A8s-A2s, K9s-K3s, Q9s-Q5s, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, A9o-A4o, KJo-K7o, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o
    Taken account that Villain is spewy LAG I assigned him a large CALL range capped by: AA-77, A9s+, ATo+, QTs+, KQo+ that he would 3-bet. May be 77 and 88 are also part of his CALL range, instead of 3-bet ? Depends on how aggressive is the villain.

    Unknown LIMP-CALL RANGE (%-24)(# 318)
    QQ-22, AJs-A2s, K8s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo-A3o, K9o+, QTo+, Jto
    - Small pocket: CALL
    - Broadways: CALL
    - Monsters AA-KK: RAISE
    An unknown in early position that is open limping does that only to call small pairs and broadways and Axs to see a cheap flop as a weak player or wants to trap and limp-3-bet with AA or KK

    FLOP :6d:4c:4s rainbow
    Villain raise on our CBET
    FLOP: RANGE (%-71 of previous range)(#254)
    66-44, A8s-A2s, K4s, Q9s, Q6s, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, A9o-A4o, KJo-KTo, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o
    Villain as a speewy LAG will raise almost everything using positional advantage on us:
    Any 4: RAISE
    88: RAISE
    KJs: RAISE
    He is not concerned by our hand range and does aggression to use "fear" equity because of the paired 44.

    we check and allin from villain
    TURN: RANGE (%-83 of previous range)(# 212)
    66, 44, A8s, A6s, A4s, K4s, Q9s, Q6s, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, Ad7d, Ad5d, Ad3d, Ad2d, A9o-A8o, A6o, A4o, KJo-KTo, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o
    Villain will see our check as weakness, so he will make allin with almost any decent hand:
    Any 4: ALLIN
    Overcards: ALLIN
    Single pairs: ALLIN

    As we have an SPR < 1 on the turn our decision is based on equity:
    - Needed equity: 330 /1055 = 31%
    - Equity against villain range: 77%
    - decision: easy call
    - EV = 0,77 x 1055 = 812,35 -23% x 330 = -75,9
    - 812-76 = +EV 736

    I may have included 88 in his calling range, which would change somehow the figures, but it is still an easy call taken account of his range and not of these specific hands.
  • tfaziotfazio Red Chipper Posts: 819 ✭✭✭
    FYI SPR is calculated on the flop before any betting
  • ImperatorImperator Red Chipper Posts: 898 ✭✭✭
    edited June 2016
    tfazio wrote: »
    FYI SPR is calculated on the flop before any betting

    True, @[email protected].com may not being very technical in his usage, but I understand what he means.

    What is most important is to have an idea of why we use the concept of SPR. Basically the concept is part of planning a hand, bet sizing, and what kind of hands can "get there" on the turn or the river before we have to just commit our stack.

    In other words the concept helps us to plan how we want to play the hand from street to street That is why we use it the way we do and when we do. The stacks may be too short to create a big pot that will let us play this kind of hand through. With one kind of hand, (low suited connectors for instance) we may not know whether we want to commit to playing for stacks on the turn. With that kind of a hand, and with implied odds, we want to play with deep stacks giving us more streets for the correct decisions and deeper stacks to bluff or semi-bluff. With QQ or KK we might want to commit to playing for stacks as early as we can. etc.

    I'm being pedantic but writing "the why" of things helps to explain the "nitty" correction of @tfazio and the understandable mistaken use of the term by @[email protected].com .

    Of course, I could be totally wrong also since I only learned the term six months ago myself.... which is all the more reason for me to do a conceptual check.
  • Mr2u53Mr2u53 Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    edited June 2016
    Hand 11

    Villain in the CO Calling Range
    214 Combos

    EP2 Unknown Player Limp Calls So the range for a Limp Call here is:
    AJs-A2s, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s
    AQo-A2o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo
    Combos: 342
    % Form: 25.8%
    Would EP2 Limp/Call with…
    Small PP: Yes
    Broadway Hands: Yes
    Monsters AA/KK: No
    I can not Beat…
    Quads: 44 1 Combo .7%
    Full House: 66 3 Combos 2.11%
    I Can Beat…
    Over PP: 77-TT 24 Combos 16.9%
    Top Pair: 65s, 76s 6 Combos 4.23%
    108 Combos 76.1% No Made Hands
    Combos: 34
    % Form: 16.7%
    With the Preflop range I put the CO on he has Quads, a Full House, or he is behind.
    What Would He do with…
    Any 4: Raise
    88: Raise
    KJs: Fold
    I can not Beat…
    Quads: 44 1 Combo 5.26%
    Full House: 66 88 6 Combos 31.6%
    I Can Beat…
    Over PP: 99-TT 12 Combos 63.2%
    Middle Pair: 65s, 76s 6 Combos 24%
    Combos: 25
    % Form: 80.6%
    What would he do with…
    A Four: Bet
    Over cards: Bluff or Check
    Single Pairs: Bet

    So he puts me All in. I am drawing Dead, I have outs, or I am ahead.
    Should I Call?
    How much Equity do I need? 31%
    Risk/(Risk+Reward) 330/ (330+725) = 330/1055=.31= 31%

    How much Equity do I have? 67.636%
    This is what is left of Villains preflop range I put him on.
    Board: 8d6d4c4s
    Range 1: QcQd
    Range 2: TT-88,66,44,76s,65s
    Equity 1: 67.636% Win 1: 67.636% Tie 1: 0.000%
    Equity 2: 32.364% Win 2: 32.364% Tie 2: 0.000%

    Is this a Profitable Call? Yes
    +EV 601.25
  • OutlierOutlier Red Chipper Posts: 158 ✭✭
    Villain PREFLOP RANGE 27%, 322 combos
    22-TT, A2s-AJs, A9o-AQo, 65o-KQo, 54s-KQs, 64s-KJs
    I made the assumption that villain regarded us as a TAG so I don't have him 3-betting some of the hands that others did. This gray range (= does villain 3-bet these or not) is 77-TT, KQo, KJs, AJo.

    Unknown LIMP-CALL RANGE 10%, 128 combos
    TT-22, ATs-A2s, JTs-KTS, QJs, KJs, KQ
    - Small pocket pairs: CALL
    - Broadways: CALL, but only with the stronger ones, (call with the likes KQo and JTs, but fold hands like KJo)
    - Monsters AA-KK: RAISE
    I'm pegging villain 2 very straightforward as he just sat down. He will open limp a wide range to try to start playing, but will fold a fair amount to our raise.

    FLOP :6d:4c:4s rainbow

    VILLAIN FLOP RAISING RANGE: 26%, 77 combos
    54s, 77-TT, A6s, 86s, 76s, 76o, 65o, A8s-AJs, 50% of AQ and 75s

    Any 4: I'm torn here. A good LAG would of course play a 4 fast to get max value and balance his raising range. But a spewy LAG? I can't with confidence say he'll always play a monster fast. He's quite intoxicated with how his wild play has been making him money this past hour without having a hand that I can easily see him go into trap mode with a 4.
    As a compromise I had him raise half of his range that has 4s, i.e. raise 54s, but just call with A4s. It's not a big deal overall for me because he doesn't get to the flop with a lot of 4s (preflop range issue on my part?)
    88: RAISE
    KJs: CALL with backdoor flush draws (KJdd, KJcc, KJss), otherwise fold
    Again, my reasoning is shaped by villain viewing us as a TAG, so he's not going to try to blast us off the hand with random overcards. If he were, he would definitely use a bigger sizing. I think he'd also use bigger sizing with draws like 75, so I have villain's flop raising range significantly smaller than other posters'.

    we check and villain goes all in.
    VILLAIN TURN ALL-IN RANGE: 67%, 49 combos
    75s (2 combos), 54s, 86s, 99-TT, A8s, 76s, 65s, 76o, 65o

    Any 4: ALLIN
    Overcards: ALLIN only with those that picked up flush draws, ie, A9-AJdd
    Single pairs: ALLIN as many of them with which he gets to the turn pick up straight draws.

    As we have an SPR < 1 on the turn our decision is based on equity:
    - Needed equity: 330 /1055 = 31%
    - Equity against villain range: 77-82% (depending how many 4s I have him raise the flop with)
    -Is this a profitable call? YES

  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,180 ✭✭✭✭
    Spewy Lag calling range: 22-99, 76o - QJo, Q9o+, J9o+, K9o+, A9o/ATo, 43s - QJs, 64s - KJs, J8s - KTs, Q8s, K9s, A2s - A8s 310 combos 25.3%

    EP2 limp/calling range pp 22-99, ATB, A2s - A9s 174 combos 14.2%

    FLOP: :6D::4C::4S:

    I have Villain betting any four, OESD, gutshots, overs, TP, and overpairs
    256 out of 286 combos for 89.5% frequency. He is raising some hands with equity including a few combos that have us beat but he is also raising a lot of junk in an attempt to push us off the weaker part of our own range.

    TURN: :8D:

    Villain is betting $330 here with fours, overs + FD combos, 65, 87, 77. His frequency on the turn drops significantly but still a lot of hands in his range that is dominated by our hand with one card to come. I have Villain betting 98 out of 242 combos for a 40.5% frequency on the turn.

    Equity needed: 31%
    Equity we have: 73%
    Profitable call: Yes
    EV: + $440.15
  • akashraakashra Red Chipper Posts: 12 ✭✭
    edited August 2016
    Just a heads up --- Everyone that showed their "EV:" under this forum thus far calculated it wrong with the exception of Ninjah. I'd revisit (3:30 mark)
  • Briax24Briax24 Red Chipper Posts: 44 ✭✭
    @Ninjah Do you think It may be optimistic to give Villain all of the overs here. Even a "Spewy LAG" doesn't raise every time he gets c-bet on this board. I have a way Nittier version of this where the call is -$55 EV on the turn.

    HAND #11 :
    Range For Spewy LAG CO calls raise: 99-22,AJo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o-T8o,98o-97o,87o-86o,76o,65o,54o,AJs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-96s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s,32s (% of form 42.9%) (Combos:526)

    Range for Unknown EP limp call: 88-22,AJo-A2o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,T9o,98o,87o,AJs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s,65s,54s (% of form: 29.1%) (Combos: 356)
    EP would limp call with

    Any Broadway: I think he could potentially be limp calling as strong as AJs, with little info I think this is a hand on the fringes of the top of his range.

    Small pocket pairs: He probably starts open raising somewhere in the realm of 88 or 99, I give him 22-88.

    Monsters (AA-KK): Probably not

    FLOP: Villains Raising range: 99-66,44,AJo,A4o,54o,AJs-ATs,A4s,K4s,75s,64s,54s-53s,43s,8c7c,8d7d,8s7s
    (% of previous range: 15.5%) (Combos: 74)

    Does Villain Raise with?

    Any 4: I think most of the time but he could slow play some of them. I am assuming here that Villain is raising most of the time with these hands.

    88: He raises sometimes with these overpairs and calls sometimes I think. If he is over aggro I think Villains can be expected to raise to 6x too. I left in all the over-pairs and didn’t put in any 66 because they are a similar type of hand.

    KJs: This is tricky, based on Villain description I would say sometimes. I left in all AJ and ATs to give some wait to over-card bluffs. Maybe spreading that out among broadway hands is the best solution in this situation.

    TURN: Villains shoving range: 99-88,66,44,A4o,54o,A4s,K4s,75s,64s,54s,43s,AdJd,AdTd,8c7c,8s7s,5d3d
    (% of previous range: 61.4%) (Combos: 43)

    What does Villain do with?

    A Four? I think he shoves now.

    Overcards? Im not sure how often he wants to bluff jam with overs. Some players do it way too much. I give him the xdxd combos he took to the turn as bluffs. Probably has to continue.

    Single pairs: as played I think Villain still jams with 99. Maybe a rare 77 or a 6 that just doesn’t believe that we have a hand. But most of those combos have gone away now.

    Should you call?
    How much equity do you need?: 31.27%
    How much equity do we have? 26.22%
    Is this a profitable call? NO
    Bonus: What is the EV of this call? ~ -$55
  • GregGreg Red Chipper Posts: 32 ✭✭
    akashra wrote: »
    Just a heads up --- Everyone that showed their "EV:" under this forum thus far calculated it wrong with the exception of Ninjah. I'd revisit (3:30 mark)

    I don't follow.
    Win- pot (395) + spewy lag bet (330) + call (330) = $1055
    Lose- call $330
    I had 74% win percentage
    Win (.74*1055) - Lose (.26*330)
    $780.07 - $85.8 = EV $694.27

    That seems to be what other posts are doing.
    Where is the mistake?
  • rvansandtrvansandt Red Chipper Posts: 54 ✭✭
    For dollars won, it is the pot size before you call the $330. In your case, the equation should be:
    Win (.74 * 725) - Lose (.26 * 330)
    $536.50 - $85.80 = EV $450.70
  • bluedragonbluedragon Red Chipper Posts: 5
    CO/Spewy LAG: 3Bet: AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ
    Range: 22-JJ; 56o+, 56s+, A2s-AJs, K2s-KQs, KQo, KJo, KTo, 57o+, 57s+
    39% of hands/ 514 combos

    small pocket pairs; 22-TT, call (OOP, unknown, so I say conservative)
    Broadway Hands: limp, call because of OOP
    Monsters: AA,KK great squeeze oppty, so I think he would 3Bet;

    Range: 22+, KT, KJ, KQ, QT, 65s+ A2s-ATs
    22% of hands/ 286 Combos


    After $70
    CO Any 4: I think he would call and slow play
    88: I think he would raise my CB
    KJs: Assuming super spewy, I think he would raise my CB thinking I do not have an overpair, and see what happens on the turn.

    Range: 55, 77-TT, A2s-AJs, KQs, KJs, QJs, AJo, ATo, KJo, QJo, KQo, K6,A6o,65,67,86,
    13% of hands/ 180 combos


    A Four: I don't think he has a 4 cause he would slow play on flop; but he would be here.
    Overcards: Bet
    Single Pairs: Bet

    He bets $330 -- I think he views the 8d as a blank; and keeps barreling cause he is spewy lag.

    Range: 55, 77-TT, A2s-AJs, KQs, KJs, QJs, AJo, ATo, KJo, QJo, KQo, K6,A6o,65,67,86,
    13% of hands/ 180 combos

    How much equity do I need? 330/1050 = 31%
    How much equity do I have? 85%
    Profitable call? Yes
    Bonus: EV? (.85*725)-(.15*330) = $566.75

    What did I miss?
  • gwjones00gwjones00 Red Chipper Posts: 27
    edited December 2016
    My take on this hand:

    My assumption - I play low stakes live in L.A. I am assuming the spewey CO in this hand is a typical L.A. player who opens too wide and then doesn't really have hand reading ability. Once the board pairs and I lead into the field, most hands in his bluffing range will be folded.

    2/5. CO very active making seemingly wild raises over the last hour. EP2 new to table.
    We are MP1. EP2 limps. We raise to $30 with :Qc: :QD: . CO calls. EP2 calls.

    Would EP2 limp/call with:
    Small Pocket Pairs: Yes
    Any Broadway hands: Some. I think they probably raise with big Broadways (AK, AQ, KQ, KJ, AJ).
    AA/KK: No. Assume this would be limp re-raise preflop.

    JJ-22, AJs-A2s, K2s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 43s, AJo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, J9o+, T8o+, 97o+, 86o+, 75o+, 64o+, 53o+
    %-FORM 36.2%
    COMBOS # 452

    TT-22, A9s-A2s, KTs-K8s, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, A9o-A2o, KTo, QTo+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o
    %-FORM 28.2%
    COMBOS # 346

    Flop :6D::4C::4S: EP2 checks. We bet $70. CO raises to $150

    Assumption here is once we lead into CO for more than 1/2 pot, most hands that CO perceives as bluffs (e.g., BDF, BDS) will not continue.

    What does CO do with:
    Any 4? Raise is consistent. Except for 44.
    88 (overpair)? Raise is consistent.
    KJs? Folds. Our bet is showing some strength. We shouldn’t be folding. Might call a BD flush.

    JJ-77, A6s, Ad4d, 75s+, 54s, 43s, 64o, 54o

    % OF PREVIOUS RANGE:12.1% (5.09%)
    COMBOS # 55

    Turn :8D: We check. CO bets $330.

    JJ-TT, A4s, 75s, 54s, 43s, 64o, 54o
    % OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 60% (3.19%)
    COMBOS # 33

    A four: Bet is consistent
    Overcards: Checks
    Single Pair: Based on his description, he might very well do this with the top of his overpair range (JJ,TT).

    Do we make the call?
    How much equity do we need: $330 to call to win $725 for 2.2 to 1. We need 31% equity.
    How much equity do we have: 38% if we feel that he does this with the top end of his overpair range (JJ, TT)
    Is this a profitable call: Based on equities, yes.
    What’s the EV of the call: (.38*725)-(.62*330) = $70.9

    If Villain doesn't do this with JJ, TT, we can't call.

    Comments welcome.
  • NuttedNutterNuttedNutter Red Chipper Posts: 44
    HAND #11

    VILLAIN RANGE: TT-22,AJo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo,ATs-A2s,KJs-K6s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-96s,87s-86s,76s,65s,54s

    %FORM: 24.9%
    COMBOS #: 330

    Would EP2 l/c..

    Small PP's? Yes. 22-TT. Maybe 3bets JJ-QQ 50% of the time.

    Broadways? Yes. All ATB.

    Monsters? No. Would likely 3bet KK-AA. I'd assume would 3bet 100% w/o reads yet.

    VILLAIN RANGE: AA-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A9s,A5s-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s,76s,65s,54s

    %FORM: 22.2%
    COMBOS#: 294


    CO action after $70 bet...

    Any 4? A spewy lag ip w/ any 4 I'd be more inclined to believe this type of player would want to slowplay and "trap", although there's still another player in the hand that could have a few gutshots in his range this spewy lag who has made"seemingly wild raises" over the past hour is likely not thinking about the game flow dynamic and ranging people so much. So I think he would call his 4's here.

    88? I think he would raise 88 here perhaps thinking that his overpair to the board is best and can't be beat or maybe believes we are just cbetting wide as a bluff.

    KJs? I think he would raise as a bluff here since he's not going to win often enough by calling my bet to the turn with just K high.

    VILLAIN RANGE: TT-22,AJo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo,ATs-A2s,KJs-K6s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-96s,87s-86s,76s,65s,54s

    COMBOS #: 50

    T: :8d

    Based on flop raise range what does vill do w/..

    A four? Bet it for value. At this point there is only one betting round left and he has to start building a pot. Also now the

    Overcards? I think he'd bet as a bluff here. He couldn't win on flop forced to turn his hand into a bluff in order to have a chance at winning the pot. On turn he is just continuing his bluff.

    Single Pairs? Following similar logic as the KJs overcards hand being that there's no other way to win the pot and given the player description and table dynamic description I'd assume that he would turn a hand like 77's into a bluff. So yes he bets as a bluff w/ those I believe. Can't assume that he plays an abc tag strategy and that his bluffing capability % goes up.

    VILLAIN RANGE: TT-66,44,A6s,A4s,K6s,96s,86s,76s,65s,54s

    COMBOS#: 47

    Should we make the call?

    Equity Needed? $330/(395+330+330) = 1,055. 330/1055 = 31.27%

    Current Equity? 70.6%

    Is this a profitable call? Yes. We need 31.27% equity to call we have 70.6% more than enough to make call profitable.

    EV of call? EV = (70.6%*1055) = 744.83 - (29.4%*330) 97.02 = 647.81

    EV of call = +647.81

    Did I do this correctly? Think this is correct?

  • mbehr1983mbehr1983 Red Chipper Posts: 635 ✭✭✭
    HAND #11
    Did I do this correctly? Think this is correct?

    It looks about what I got as well but for%just move the decimal 2 spots to the right so it would be like 70.6 goes to .71 but you got the right number so it works
  • mbehr1983mbehr1983 Red Chipper Posts: 635 ✭✭✭
    Here is my take. I hope to do one of these daily.
    combos 286

    Limp call

    Small pairs yes
    Most broadways
    AA/KK yes

    % 39
    combos 146
    Any 4 raise
    88 raise
    KJs raise as he using aggression

    4 bet
    Single pair bet
    Suited overs bet I think this V applies max pressure so betting here thinking we will fold

    How much equity 71% against his range
    Is it profitable yes
    Whats EV = (W%+W)-(L%-L)= (.72*725)-(.28*330)= 522-92.4= + 429

  • AcesaladAcesalad Red Chipper Posts: 240 ✭✭
    Let’s focus on the CO. It can be tough to assign very loose and aggressive players precise ranges, but with practice you can narrow their range down more easily. Start by thinking about the hands the CO would 3bet with and then remove those hands from the range they would just call you with.
    %-FORM 46.8% COMBOS 573
    Villain 1's Range:

    Now let’s focus on EP2. Even against unknowns we have to assign a range of hands. So would EP2 limp/call with…
    Small Pocket Pairs? Yes
    Any Broadway Hands? All except QQ+, AK, AQ
    Monsters (AA/KK)? No
    %-FORM 28.6% COMBOS 350
    Villain 2's Range:
    Keeping the preflop range in mind, what do you think the CO does with these kinds of hands after you bet $70?
    Any 4? Raises
    88? Calls
    KJ? Calls
    % of Previous Range 17.8% COMBOS 94
    Villain 1's Range:
    Based upon the range you thought the CO would raise the flop with, what do you think he does with:

    A Four? All In
    Over Cards? Fold
    Single Pair? All In

    You are facing an all-in decision on the turn
    Should you make this call? Let’s work it out together:
    How much equity do you need? 31.3%
    How much equity do you have? 48.6%
    Is this a profitable call? Yes
    BONUS: What's the EV of the call? $183.15
  • Kevin HKevin H Red Chipper Posts: 18 ✭✭
    My thoughts on a spewy lag must be way off. Cause everyone on here put villain on a wider range then I did. I had villain with 77-QQ, AK,AQ,AJ,AT,KQ,KJ,KTs,QJ,QTs,JT. With a 120 combos predlop. Do I need to re think how I think about preflop ranges?
  • AcesaladAcesalad Red Chipper Posts: 240 ✭✭
    If you like, we have a Skype group that meets every Thursday at 9 PM Eastern and discusses want to hand from the workbook. Tonight we are discussing and number 13. Send me a private message if you would like to join the group
  • Paul ZPaul Z Red Chipper Posts: 3 ✭✭
    Is this skype group still going?
  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 455 ✭✭✭

    Villain PREFLOP RANGE (%-32.3/15.1)(# 356/200)
    CO: 99-22,A9o-A2o,KJo-K8o,QJo-QTo,JTo,A9s-A2s,KJs-K2s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T6s,98s-95s,87s-84s,76s-74s,65s-63s,54s-53s,43s

    EP2: 99-22,AJo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo,AQs-ATs,A5s-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s
    Preflop: CO 3bets AA-1010, A10+, KQ [email protected] most limp calls are small pairs and suited connectors with a few broadways and suited aces

    FLOP :6d:4c:4s rainbow
    Villain raise on our CBET
    CO: 99-22,A6o,A4o,A6s,A4s,K6s,K4s,T6s,96s,86s,84s,76s-74s,65s-63s,54s-53s,43s
    Flop" CO raises any 4 and any over pair.. probably any pair and draws on this flop as two broadways miss. Would likely call with over cards.

    we check and allin from villain
    TURN: RANGE (%-44 of previous range)(# 42)
    Turn: LAG bets all made hands checks behind overcards 50% bets flush draws

    Need 31.3% equity Have 31% equity Borderline breakeven call EV-$9.9
  • Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
    edited June 2018
    Hand 11
    Preflop: I raise 6 BB from MP1 after EP2 limps in then CO calls. I speculate the CO would have 3B me with AA-QQ,AKo,AKs so I eliminated those from his calling range assigning a wide range due to his LAG status: 22% of starting hands (264 combos) TT-22,AJo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s then EP2 calls.
    EP2 would limp call with: 9% of hands (112 combos) JJ-99,AKo-ATo,KQo-KJo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s but not small pocket pairs, or just any Broadway hands or monster pairs.
    Flop :6d:4c:4s
    Mr. Unknown in EP2 checks and I bet 2/3+ pot and the spewy LAG in the CO 3B $150 which is more than 2X my bet. He is spewy so it could be a stab at stealing, but if not then he has 22% of previous range (55 combos) TT-66,44,A6s,A4s,86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s. He bets $150 with Pocket 44 and 66, he bets pocket 88s as a semi-bluff but not KJs. EP2 folds.
    Turn :8d
    CO bets all-in ($330) with 71% of previous range (37 combos) TT-88,66,44,A4s,86s,75s,64s,54s-53s,43s. If he has a 4 he bets all-in. So with overcards he checks and any single pair gets checked. I need 46% equity and I have 79%. I have an EV of $243
  • Naïm TerracheNaïm Terrache Red Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
    Range CO : TT-22,AJo-A7o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,76o,65o,54o,ATs-A5s,A2s,KJs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s,76s,65s

    Range EP2 : 99-22,AJo-ATo,KTo,QTo,JTo,T9o,98o,87o,76o,65o,AJs-A9s,KTs,QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s

    EP2 limp/call with...
    Small Pocket Pairs? Yes
    Any Broadway Hands? Some of them. Top of the Broadway Hands like ATs-AJs
    Monsters (AA/KK)? Not unlikely

    CO %form is 30.1 / 325 Combos in Preflop Range

    Flop :6D::4C::4S:

    The most important metric by Flopzilla is that 49% of the time he has no made hand in his range. We can deduce that half of the time he is raising with air on this flop. Taking this information in consideration, and combining this with the fact that we're dealing with a spewy LAG, we can definitely call lighter here and ALWAYS call with QQ here.

    Let's assume that he would raise with air 50% of the time, he would then continue with 49% of the total original preflop combos.

    Turn :8D:

    His Turn Range : TT-22,76o,65o,54o,A6s,76s,65s,[50]KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,KJs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s[/50]

    If we assume that Villain would shove here with Overpairs and Three of a kind + and also 50% of the time with complete air , that would be 42% of his previous range, still highlighting the fact that one half of the time that would be a winner for us with anything beating air. Thats quite a huge chunk of value I'd say!

    His final turn range after shoving : TT-88,66,44,54o,[50]KdJd,KdTd,Kd9d,JdTd,Jd9d,Td9d[/50],[25]KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,QJs-Q9s,T8s,98s,87s,KhJh,KcJc,KsJs,KhTh,KcTc,KsTs,Kh9h,Kc9c,Ks9s,JhTh,JcTc,JsTs,Jh9h,Jc9c,Js9s,Th9h,Tc9c,Ts9s[/25]

    With this range against QQ, FLopzilla says that we're ahead 80% of the time.

    If we calculate the EV of this call that would give us :

    Expected Profit : Pot 395 + Villain's shove 330 = 725
    Expected Loss : our stack 330
    Our expected equity according to Flopzilla ad Ranges : 80%

    (725*0.8)-(330*0.2) = 580 - 66 = 514$

    Our EV is 514$, it's largely positive, easy call.

  • Shawn JShawn J Red Chipper Posts: 71 ✭✭
    $2/$5. The CO has been very active this entire session, making seemingly wild raises over the last hour or so. EP2 is brand-new to this table.

    9 handed, Unkown EP2 limps, Hero MP1 w/ QcQd raises to $30, Spewy LAG CO calls, EP2 calls

    CO Range:

    I assume the Spewy LAG would 3Bet the Top of his Range.
    I assume the Unknown will call with small pocket pairs, Not all Broadways, and Not AA/KK


    EP2 Checks, Hero bets $70, and the CO raises to $150
    I assume the CO Raises with any 4 50% of the time, Raises 88+ and Just calls KJs

    Hero calls the CO's flop raise. There are 2 players to a $395 turn


    Hero checks and the CO puts us all-in for $330

    I assume he shoves with any 4, Overcards with flush draw, and possible pairs 99+

    We need 31% equity. We have 69% equity against his assigned range. Yes, It's a profitable call.

    EV = (.69 x $725) - (.31 x $330)
    = $500 - $102
    = + $398

  • Troy HTroy H Red Chipper Posts: 36 ✭✭
    Preflop I assign Spewy Lag a calling range of 326 combos, or 25%. EP2 also calls, but his call would be more of a tight calling range. TT-22,A9o-A2o,KJo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,ATs-A2s,KJs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s,54s,43s,32s

    EP2: 198 combos 15%. Mostly PP with a couple Suited connectors. From EP2's calling range, I discount all AA/KK (no backraise), most Broadways with a T or J he would do this with, but majority of Q hands would raise preflop (KQ,AQ,QJs). I believe he open limp calls most lower pocket pairs as well.

    FLOP: :6d:4c:4s

    EP2 checks (as he's supposed to), We bet $70, Spewy Lag raises to $150. I believe that Spewy Lag will raise all 54s/43s/A4 hands in this spot. I believe half of the time he will make this raise with 88 as well. I don't believe he will make this play with KJs. If he does ever show up here with KJs when it's all said and done with then he needs a new name besides Spewy Lag..possibly POW (Pay off Wizard). I digress...EP2 folds, we call.

    EP2 range: TT-66,A4o,A4s,54s,43s. 13% of his previous range. Combos = 39...Over-pair combos - 24, 3 of a kind and full houses = 15 combos. 15/39 times he is crushing us. That's 39%.

    TURN: :8d

    Villain pushes us all in. I believe he either has a 4, pocket 66/88, or an over pair such as 99-TT. We have to call here and it isn't even close.

    We check and Spewy Lag puts us all in.

    We need 31% equity. We have 59% equity. This is a profitable call.

    The EV of this call is +$646.
  • AP07AP07 Red Chipper Posts: 24 ✭✭

    A spewy lag in position is flatting about 30% of hands. His best hand being 1010 all the way down to 34s, 46s and 56o. This may be a little wide but it's not unreasonable for this player type and we dont want to get blindsided so we'll err on the wide side.

    When the unknown limp/calls he's probably got about a 12-15% range that's fairly middling overall.

    FLOP: :6d:4c:4s

    We bet and spewy lag raises. I would expect the quads and boats to flat and trips (6) to raise. I also have him raising overpairs (24) and top pairs (33). I'm sure he's got some bluffs too so I'm giving him OESD (4) gutshots (16) and A10 (16).

    99 combos 27% of range

    TURN: :8d

    I would expect him to push his nutted hands: FH:3 Str:4 3 of kind: 6 and he has a nut flush draw he'd likely shove (1). His overpairs are 99 and 1010 so I think he'd shove those 50% of the time. He still has a bunch of gutshots and most of them also contain a pair, so I just can't remove those from the range. He may even continue barrelling his A highs. Even if we remove the overpairs and A highs from his range and have him fast play his fullhouses and quads on the flop this is still a snap call with QQ.

    We need about 30% equity and we have well over 70%.
  • BigDaddyBigDaddy Red Chipper Posts: 68 ✭✭
    I see so many people with CO raising the flop with 66 and any 4, including 44. The "spewy lags" I play with would wait until at least the turn, especially with money going in on the flop.
    Am I that far off here?
  • LeighLeigh Red Chipper Posts: 30 ✭✭
    This was a challenging hand for me and situation I have trouble with. LAG with position on me. I may have had the LAG on two tight a range on the FLOP and will probably run it again with a wider range to see how the results change.

    $2/$5. CO (spewy lag) has been very active, making seemingly wild raises over the last hour or so. EP2 is brand new at the table.

    Action: Unknown (EP2) open limps, Hero (MP1) raises $30 with :Qc:Qd, MP1 calls, EP2 calls.

    CO PREFLOP: RANGE (12.4%)(152 combos) 88-22, AQs-A6s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, 98s, 76s, 65s, AQo, J9o+, T9o, 98o.

    EP2 (unknown). I expect EP2 limp/call with…
    Small Pocket Pairs? Limp/Call
    Any Broadway Hand? Not all, some AQo, KQo, QJo, JTo
    Monsters AA, KK? I expect him to open with these hands rather than limp.

    EP2 PREFLOP: Range (15.2%) (186 combos) 88-22, A9s-A2s, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, AQo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo


    FLOP :6d:4c:4s

    This rainbow flop with pair is very good for my overpair and I find a bet on the Flop often wins the pot . EP2 Checks, Hero bets $70, CO raises to $150, EP2 folds, hero calls.

    After I bet $70 I think CO:
    Any 4? Raise
    88? Raise
    KJ? Raise

    I think the Spewy LAG is raising most if not all his holdings. Two Pair, Over pairs, Middle Pocket Pairs, BDFD. Call pocket pairs less than top pair.

    CO FLOP: RANGE (92%)(141 combos) 88-77, 55, 33-22, 6h6s, 6c6s, 6c6h, 4d4h, AJs-A7s, AsQs, As6s, AhQh, Ah6h, Ac6c, KJs-KTs, KsQs, KhQh, QsTs+, QhTh+, JTs, 98s, 7s6s, 7h6h, 7c6c, 6s5s, 6h5h, 6c5c, AhQs, AcQs, AcQh, AdQs, AdQh, AsQh, J9o+, T9o, 98o

    Trun: :8d

    Hero checks, CO bets $330. Do I think that CO would do with?
    A 4? Bets
    Overcards? Bets…assuming my opening range has missed the board. Maybe just his NFD or FD with tow overcards.
    Should I make the call?

    How much equity do I need? $330 into a $395 pot. Risk/(Risk + Reward) = $330/($330+$695) = 31%
    How much equity do I have? 88% I am only loosing to pocket 8s, 6s, 4s only about 12% of his potential holding. I have him taking this action with with Four Kind, Full House, that beat me and Two Pair, Top Pair, Second Pairs, NFDs all of which I currently have beat thinking I can’t call.
    Is this a profitable call? Very easy call
    BONUS: What is the EV of the call? EV = .88($1055)-.12($330) = + $888.80

    Villain TURN: RANGE (43% of pervious range)(62 combos) 77, 55, 33-22, 8h8s, 8c8s, 8c8h, 6h6s, 6c6s, 6c6h, 4d4h, As8s, As6s, Ah8h, Ah6h, Ac8c, Ac6c, AdJd-Ad9d, Ad7d, KdJd-KdTd, JdTd, 9s8s, 9h8h, 9c8c, 7s6s, 7h6h, 7c6c, 6s5s, 6h5h, 6c5c, 9h8s, 9c8s, 9c8h, 9d8s, 9d8h, 9d8c, 9s8h, 9s8c, 9h8c

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