Hand#14

Nehme GedeonNehme Gedeon Red Chipper Posts: 3
Well this is the trickiest hand so far, where i find myself facing the below situation:

I've assigned villain a preflop, flop and turn ranges. then suddenly villain decides to check raise turn, and then overbet the river. in my opinion, even for a spewy LAG villain, taking that line seems strong, which leads me to think that villian was trapping with a monster that he flopped. such as a set of JJs or 66s or even set of QQs on the turn, problem is, at this point in the hand i've eliminated these hands from villians range based on his actions on previous streets. Do you re-evaluate everything and start over in flopzilla again? or carry on with the ranges you have so far?

thanks,
Nehme

Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think more info is needed for us to answer your question correctly. Maybe post the hand, player type, and range you assigned him. We can break it down from there. Also table dynamics are helpful as I've seen good players make some stupid plays when dynamics get a little crazy.
  • Nehme GedeonNehme Gedeon Red Chipper Posts: 3
    Hi Austin,

    Apologies i thought everyone in this forum has the hand reading workbook. i'll try to edit the post ASAP to include everything.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,080 ✭✭✭✭
    Many people are but several of us are around hand 8 or so. Did you skip ahead? You may be waiting awhile.
  • JuliaJulia Red Chipper Posts: 5
    When the spewy LAG opens in the SB, I assign him a verrrrry wide range, 474 starting hands. When he checks the J high, dry flop, I think he either has no hand, no draw -- or a monster. He would bet any overs, any pair J or lower, any ace high. So I leave AA-JJ, 66, and 22 in his checking range. On the Q rainbow turn, when he checks again, I think he only has air or sets (all four are in his range). When he raises the turn, he therefore has no one pair hands, only OESDs (KT and T9, 24 combos) and sets (10 combos). On the blank river, I don't see him overbetting the pot with bluffs. the 4 is a terrible bluffing card... Unless he's spewing, which he does do... idk, I think I fold here because over time I think I save money.
  • BadFrog1BadFrog1 Red Chipper Posts: 136 ✭✭
    I think this has to be a call on turn and river. I can't think of any value hands that make sense here. I could see somebody checking a monster on the flop, but checking a set twice makes no sense. The river doesn't improve any of his bluffs, with the possible exception of 44, 24, or 64 that he turned into a bluff on the turn. Overall, I think we can expect to see lots of bluff and very few value hands here.
  • dmansendmansen Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
    This is a tricky hand. It's hard to think of which hands a "spewy LAG" will play so passively in this spot.

    Folds to Spewy LAG in SB, opens $25 ($860)
    Range: AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K7o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J9o,T9o-T8o,98o,87o,76o,65o,54o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J5s,T9s-T6s,98s-95s,87s-85s,76s-74s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s,32s
    Combos: 625
    51% of preflop range

    51% seemed reasonably wide for a "Spewy LAG". He might complete with the most trashy suited holdings.

    Flop: :Jh :6c :2d

    SB checks
    Range: 55-33,A9o-A2o,K9o-K7o,QTo-Q8o,T9o-T8o,98o,87o,76o,65o,54o,ATs-A7s,A5s-A3s,KTs-K7s,K5s-K3s,QTs-Q7s,Q5s-Q3s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,95s,87s,85s,75s-74s,32s,[70]T6s,96s,86s,76s,65s-64s[/70],[40]TT-77,A6s,A2s,K6s,K2s,Q6s,Q2s[/40],[50]AKo-AQo,ATo,KQo,KTo,AKs-AQs,KQs[/50]:a4b4a1b3a5b4a1b3a5b4a1b3a19b3a11b2a1b1a10b1a1b1a12b2a67:a15b1:a16:a16
    329.7 combos
    52.7% of flop range

    I exclude most BDFD hands from his range and give partial combos to the worst 1 pair hands.

    Weak Jx hands? Lead
    77 or 65s? Bet 77 60%, bet 65s 30%
    I'm unsure if this player bets here, so I removed some combos.
    KQ? Bet 50%

    Turn: :Qs (pot: $50)
    SB checks
    Range: 55-33,A9o-A2o,K9o-K7o,T8o,98o,87o,76o,65o,54o,A9s-A7s,A5s-A3s,K9s-K7s,K5s-K3s,T8s-T7s,98s-97s,95s,87s,85s,75s-74s,32s,[70]T6s,96s,86s,76s,65s-64s[/70],[40]TT-77,Q9o-Q8o,A6s,A2s,K6s,K2s,Q5s-Q2s[/40]:a5b3a1b3a6b3a1b3a11b2a20b2a11b2a1b1a10b1a1b1a12b2a67:a15b1:a16:a16
    Combos: 262.1
    79.2% of turn range

    At first I thought they would lead here with hands like broadway gutshots, but check-raise also seems reasonable. Player-dependent.

    BB bets $30
    SB check-raises to $70
    Range: T9o,54o,ATs,KTs,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,[40]Q6s,Q2s[/40],[50]44-33,AKo,ATo,KTo,AKs[/50]:a4b1a12b1a39b1a13b2a96:a15b1:a16:a16
    52.8 combos
    20% of turn range

    Here we have gutshots, two pair. No sets, those would have led turn.

    Top pair? Would bet or check-call
    Gutshots? Check raise
    Bluffs? Small pocket pairs

    BB calls

    River: :4d (pot: $190)
    SB bets $250

    This bet size indicates either a strong hand or a bluff. He may check back hands like AK for showdown value and bet worse draws or 33. Value hands are 2 pair and sets of 4s, since we assigned those to turn check-raise.

    Range: T9o,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,[40]Q6s,Q2s[/40],[50]44[/50]:a57b1a13b2a96:a15b1:a16:a16
    17.3 combos
    32.7% of river range

    I figure a "spewy LAG" can bet even more often than this. Even if he only bets a few draws this way, it’s so hard to have value and we look so weak (V won’t have all combos of 44). We should call.
  • dmansendmansen Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
    Julia wrote: »
    On the blank river, I don't see him overbetting the pot with bluffs. the 4 is a terrible bluffing card... Unless he's spewing, which he does do... idk, I think I fold here because over time I think I save money.

    Julia - I think you need to call because there are still so many hands in his range that he knows can't win at showdown. We've shown weakness, and LAGs notoriously attack that (he could think we were getting stubborn with a J that we'll now fold on the river, for example).
  • OutlierOutlier Red Chipper Posts: 158 ✭✭
    I agree with previous posters that it was difficult to confidently assign ranges to villain here from street-to-street. I also ran into @Nehme Gedeon's issue of getting to the turn check-raise and having to add back hands I had already eliminated.

    Folds to Spewy LAG in SB, opens $25 ($860)

    VILLAIN PREFLOP RAISING RANGE: 62%, 817 combos

    e9m9il7b9xxh.png

    I reasoned that, based on the player description, he would raise any "attractive" hand: any A-X, K-X or suited hand. Betting and raising have been working for him, why stop now? I didn't give him any hands with which he would only complete. I'm also assuming that villain has some sense (even if only subconscious) that ranges will be wide here BvB and that almost any pair is worth betting.

    Flop: :Jh :6c :2d

    SB checks

    VILLAIN FLOP CHECK RANGE: 61% of previous range, 439 combos
    wb94gw039zwb.png

    I have villain betting so liberally that this check represents only the weakest part his range. After seeing that he min-check-raised the turn, I went back here and added a few monsters (50% of JJ and 66), but checking any one pair-hand except his worst 2-X hands seems unlikely.

    Villain is betting
    Weak Jx hands? yes
    77 or 65s? yes--any pair is good in a BvB spot.
    KQ? No, but I put KQs in his flop lead range anyway.

    Turn: :Qs (pot: $50)
    SB checks

    VILLAIN TURN CHECK RANGE: 92% of previous range, 386 combos
    vp8a79gl6haq.png

    We seem weak, so I would think villain would lead with anything with which he picked up equity on the turn. Again when I saw the check-raise I went back and added some draws in here, though it seems unlikely he would min-check-raise a draw.

    BB bets $30
    SB check-raises to $70

    VILLAIN TURN CHECK-RAISING RANGE: 8% of previous range, 32 combos
    z8phlfq1piif.png

    Here he has gutshots, 50% of KTo and T9o, and 50% of JJ and 66. I initially had villain getting to the river with zero value, so I went back and added the some sets, even though it seems unlikely he would check them twice, especially when an overcard comes on the turn that he can hope we hit.

    Top pair? Would bet
    Gutshots? Check raise, though it seems he would check-raise bigger
    Bluffs? no

    BB calls

    River: :4d (pot: $190)
    SB bets $250

    VILLAIN RIVER BETTING RANGE: 100% of previous range, 32 combos

    nrod4cmyhs6v.png

    Very polarized here, but in an unbalanced way--mostly bluffs. He bets his entire turn check-raise range here. We should call.








  • JoskroketJoskroket Red Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
    I faced the same issue that when villain check raises the Turn and I wanted to add hands to his range that I previously excluded, but isn't that exactly what we shouldn't do? The all 'ranges are linear' that splitsuit teaches in his handreading lab ? Imho it often comes down to the interpretation of what exactly a spewy lag with gambling tendencies means.
  • YoshYosh Red Chipper Posts: 570 ✭✭✭
    @Outlier is your flop check range really realistic for a "spewy lag" who opened the SB on a bone dry flop? Do lags usually give up the initiative with air on dry flops?
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,601 ✭✭✭✭
    edited November 2016
    I'm relieved to see that I'm not the only one doubtful about this hand.

    Personally I kinda with the preflop range of @Outlier : I think it's waaaaay too loose. 93s? 64o? 42s? I could understand to put some weak abds as pure bluff, but not that loose. He can expect the BB to defend his blinds and not blindly fold to a steal.

    My range preflop: 22+; A2+; K9+; K5s+; QT+; Q9s; JT; 54s+; 97s+ (32,5%; 398 combos).
    z8corqart4ks.png

    Which leads me to another problem : "spewy LAG" doesn't mean "irrational LAG", imho. Even if he is not disciplined (drinking, gambling) he still have some/his rationality.
    It's said that "he plays lot of hands" and "C-R few times postflop". So C-R is still somehow rare (but not impossible) - and we don't know if it was for value or for bluff.

    Still he is playing spewy. When he doesn't lead the flop (even with air, I put all AX and broadway in his leading range, as well as JX and sometimes 6X) I would see him with weak hands: sometimes because slow playing (50%) but mostly checking weak pairs, gutshot and weak no made hands (like K8 or 54). But if he can win, I would guess he want to put some money in.
    @Yosh : yes, and he is spewy so even more chance that he leads with air as bluff. (Here overcards; but also possible with OEDS, gutshot, FD and BDFD.)

    When he C-R the turn, I'm reaaaally confused (also I'm not used playing 140BB stack). 70$ into a 30$ bet, with a turn Q:SPADE: ? And then overbetting the 4:DIAMOND: river ? I see that as intimidation and would call too as our Q beats a good chunk of his range; also it give us information (C-R with air or for value?); but I might fold if we have already seen a value C-R / overbet before.
  • bluedragonbluedragon Red Chipper Posts: 5
    Villains Range in SB: 662 Combos, 49.9% of hands; Raises to $25

    (A2+, K2+, 22+, 43+, middle connectors, 1 gappers, etc..

    Hero in BB: Calls with QhTh

    FLOP: Jh 6c 2d Villain Checks; Hero Checks

    What would Villian do with:

    Jx hands: I think bet
    77 or 65s: I think bet
    KQ: I think bet

    Therefore I remove all Js, 6s, 77+, AQ, KQ from range

    Villian new Range after checked flop:
    A2-A5, A7-AT, AK,
    K2-K5, K7-KT, 1 gappers w/o 6's, J's; etc...
    474 combs, 35% of hands, 71% of previous hands
    TURN: Qs

    Villian checks
    Hero Bets $30 (into $50 pot)

    Would Hero bet J8? I think not
    AQ? No
    AT? Maybe

    Villian Raises to $70 ($40 more); Hero calls
    River is 4d

    Villian overbets $250 into a pot of $190

    Should Hero call?

    We have 1 pair as a bluff catcher; but that may be the point cause there are so few hands around that beat us. QJ? I have to add back the other hands since he didn't bet them; thus the question becomes, did he slow play AQ, KQ, JJ, 66, 22, (QQ, AA, KK)?? Doesn't seem to make sense even for him.

    Therefore, while I would have a hard time calling in my game; the range work indicates that it is a clear call.

    Slow played or Bluff. CALL. Its a bluff. he is too drunk, silly to slow play.
  • NuttedNutterNuttedNutter Red Chipper Posts: 44
    HAND #14

    Given the player type, game flow dynamic and this specific spot although it is a bit tricky and I'm somewhat speculating but I'd say the hands that he completes are hands that are the bottom of the barrel equity wise, just complete junk w/ little potential to make draws or any strong hand unless one gets lucky and flops 2 pair, 3 of a kind, full house etc. even then w/ kickers these hands can be outdrawn sometimes.

    So I'd say his complete range would be something like: 23-J2o, 43-J3o, 64-J4o. It's super wide yes, but again w/ the player description, dynamic, specific spot (sb vs. bb open) I'd say he'll find an excuse way to open just about ATC.

    VILLAIN RANGE: AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K2o,QJo-Q2o,JTo-J5o,T9o-T5o,98o-95o,87o-85o,76o-75o,65o,54o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J2s,T9s-T2s,98s-92s,87s-82s,76s-72s,65s-62s,54s-52s,43s-42s,32s

    %FORM: 79.2%
    COMBOS#: 1050

    :Jh :6c :2d

    Would SB ch or bet w/..

    Weak JX Hands? Yes absolutely. I think he'd bet his entire range of TP JX hands no matter the kicker.

    77 or 65s? Yes I believe he's capable of betting a mid pair. TT-77, I believe 65s and all his 6's are capable of betting sure.

    KQ? Yes. If he's capable of c-r a decent amount and also has shown down a few bluffs then I'd have reason to believe he's capable of betting KQ high as a bluff here. He might not necessarily bet here as a bluff 100% of the time hu against me, but definitely has bluffs in him at least half the time.

    W/ this in mind I'd say if he's capable of betting K high as a bluff then he's likely capable of doing the same w/ Ace high, gutshots, bottom pair, etc. so I decided to keep those in his range.

    VILLAIN RANGE: AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-KJo,K6o,K2o,QJo,Q6o,Q2o,JTo-J5o,T6o,96o,86o,76o,65o,54o,AKs-A2s,KQs-KJs,K6s,K2s,QJs,Q6s,Q2s,JTs-J2s,T6s,T2s,96s,92s,86s,82s,76s,72s,65s-62s,54s-52s,43s-42s,32s

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 55.9%
    COMBOS#: 527

    T: :Qs

    Would SB ch both streets w/..

    J8? No. He'd bet flop at least.

    AQ? No. He's capable of betting flop w/ it or checking, but definitely betting turn.

    AT? Maybe. He's capable of checking or betting both streets w/ Ace high. If he'd bet KQ high as a bluff though I'd say he'd be more inclined to bet both streets as a bluff w/ AT as well. Also AT just picked up a gutshot on the turn so w/ additional equity and the overall player type description I'd say he'd bet AT on this turn.

    VILLAIN RANGE: AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-KJo,K6o,K2o,QJo,Q6o,Q2o,JTo-J5o,T6o,96o,86o,76o,65o,54o,AKs-A2s,KQs-KJs,K6s,K2s,QJs,Q6s,Q2s,JTs-J2s,T6s,T2s,96s,92s,86s,82s,76s,72s,65s-62s,54s-52s,43s-42s,32s

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 100%
    COMBOS#: 507

    Would SB c-r...

    TP? Yes.
    Gutshots? Yes
    Bluffs? Yes

    VILLAIN RANGE: AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-KJo,K6o,K2o,QJo,Q6o,Q2o,JTo-J5o,T6o,96o,86o,76o,65o,54o,AKs-A2s,KQs-KJs,K6s,K2s,QJs,Q6s,Q2s,JTs-J2s,T6s,T2s,96s,92s,86s,82s,76s,72s,65s-62s,54s-52s,43s-42s,32s

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 100%
    COMBOS#: 507

    R: 4d

    Bet size I'd say would indicate a polarized range of bluffs TP type hands but the sizing I'd say would indicate a bluff hand that wants folds, it would seem to me that if it were a value bet he would've either raised more on turn and bet an amount he thinks I can call w/ a TP type hand instead of making the price so high that TP hands are weary of calling. Now given, he has proven to be tricky, but this is the river, he either gets paid for the value of his hand or attempts to force me to fold. This to me looks like a missdraw type hand like AT or hand like 54 looking for a 3. He's also capable of turning a single pair hand into a bluff yes.

    Should you call this bet? Yes. For the range assigned which includes weak single pair hands that could be used as bluffs and missed gutshots etc. I'm showing to require 36.2% equity and I'm showing to have 76.42% w/ QhTh.

    VILLAIN RANGE: AA-22,AQo-AJo,A6o,A4o,A2o,KQo-KJo,K6o,K2o,QJo,Q6o,Q2o,JTo-J5o,T6o,96o,86o,76o,65o,54o,AQs-AJs,A6s,A4s,A2s,KQs-KJs,K6s,K2s,QJs,Q6s,Q2s,JTs-J2s,T6s,T2s,96s,92s,86s,82s,76s,72s,65s-62s,54s-52s,43s-42s,32s

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 76.5%
    COMBOS#: 352





















  • AcesaladAcesalad Red Chipper Posts: 240 ✭✭
    Stealing ranges can be very wide, and even more so when your opponent is on the LAG-side of the spectrum. When building this range consider if the SB would complete with any hands.
    %-FORM 26.3% #Combos 322
    VILLAIN'S RANGE:
    AA-77,AKo-A2o,KQo-KTo,QJo,AKs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q7s
    Flop:
    :JH: :6C: :2D:
    Given how wide the SB’s preflop range was, do you think the SB would check or bet with the following hands?
    Weak JX Hands? Bet
    77 or 65s? Bet
    King Queen? Check
    % of Previous Range 87.9% #Combos 262
    VILLAIN'S RANGE:
    AA-JJ,AKo-A7o,A5o-A2o,KQo-KTo,QJo,AKs-A7s,A5s-A2s,KQs-K7s,K5s-K2s,QJs-Q7s
    Turn:
    :QS:
    The SB checked the flop and turn. Would this player ever check both streets with:
    J8? No
    AQ? No
    AT? Yes
    % of Previous Range 84.1% #Combos 206
    VILLAIN'S RANGE
    AA-JJ,AKo-AQo,ATo-A7o,A5o-A3o,KQo,KTo,QJo,AKs-AQs,ATs-A7s,A5s-A3s,KQs,KTs-K7s,K5s-K3s,QJs-Q7s
    The SB check-raises your $30 bet up to $70 total.
    Based upon the hands that the SB would check the flop and turn with, would they check-raise:
    Top Pair? Yes
    Gutshots? No
    Bluffs? No
    % of Previous Range 22.3% #Combos 46
    VILLAIN'S RANGE:
    AA-JJ,AQo,KQo,QJo,AQs,KQs,QJs-Q7s
    River:
    :4D:
    The SB overbets the river.
    Does this bet size indicate anything about his range? I think he is ver strong or very weak, otherwise he wold just want to see a showdown
    Would he turn a single-pair into a bluff? No
    Assign his range, then use that range to answer the following:
    % of Previous Range 100.0% #Combos 46
    VILLAIN'S RANGE:
    AA-JJ,AQo,KQo,QJo,AQs,KQs,QJs-Q7s
    Should you call this bet? No
    From the way I played it he has nothing but strong hands left. That being said I think I may not have assigned him a wide enough range. Another reoccurring problem I have is I don't assign enough of a bluffing range or any at all in many cases.
  • Mike DMike D Red Chipper Posts: 17 ✭✭
    Preflop range :
    AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s 31% OR 385 combos

    Weak JX Hands? bet 77 or 65s? bet King Queen? bet

    flop ck range:
    AA-22,AKo-AQo,ATo-A2o,KQo,KTo,QTo,T9o,98o,AKs-AQs,ATs-A2s,KQs,KTs-K9s,QTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s 58% or 202 combos
    includes all sets and 50% of overpairs

    turn ck range:
    QQ-22,AKo,ATo-A2o,KTo,T9o,98o,AKs,ATs-A2s,KTs-K9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s 84% or 160 combos
    includes 25% of sets, no overpairs

    turn ck raise range:
    QQ-22,AKo,ATo-A2o,KTo,T9o,98o,AKs,ATs-A2s,KTs-K9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s 22% of flop range or 41 combos
    still includes 25% of sets and a lot of bluffs, no pairs or overpairs left. I assumed he would have bet them on the flop or turn.

    river range:
    QQ-22,AKo,ATo-A2o,AKs,ATs-A9s,A7s-A6s,A4s-A2s,76s 44% of turn range or 18 combos. 17% of the time he has a set and 83% is a bluff. You have to call this.
  • Laurence CLaurence C Red Chipper Posts: 28 ✭✭
    This is a very interesting hand to analyze, it all depends how one defines "spewy LAG".

    Preflop Villain's Range: AA-22,AKo-A7o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q4s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s [35%, 430 combos]

    Hero's decision not to 3Bet is because of position over SB and Villain's range is wide.

    Flop:
    :JH: :6C: :2D:
    Given how wide the SB’s preflop range was, do you think the SB would check or bet with the following hands?
    Weak JX Hands? Check
    77 or 65s? Bet
    King Queen? Bet
    Villain's Range: AA-66,22,AKo-AJo,KQo-KJo,QJo,JTo-J9o,AKs-AJs,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs-J7s,54s,AcTc,AdTd,Ah9h,Ac9c,Ad9d,Ah8h,Ac8c,Ad8d,Ah7h,Ac7c,Ad7d,Ah6h,Ad6d,Ah5h,Ac5c,Ad5d,Ah4h,Ac4c,Ad4d,Ah3h,Ac3c,Ad3d,Ah2h,Ac2c,KcTc,KdTd,Kh9h,Kc9c,Kd9d,Kh8h,Kc8c,Kd8d,Kh7h,Kc7c,Kd7d,Kh6h,Kd6d,Kh5h,Kc5c,Kd5d,Kh4h,Kc4c,Kd4d,Kh3h,Kc3c,Kd3d,Kh2h,Kc2c,QcTc,QdTd,Qc9c,Qd9d,Qc8c,Qd8d,Qc7c,Qd7d,Qd6d,Qc5c,Qd5d,Qc4c,Qd4d,Tc9c,Td9d,Tc8c,Td8d,Tc7c,Td7d,9h8h,9c8c,9d8d,9h7h,9c7c,9d7d,8h7h,8c7c,8d7d,8h6h,8d6d,7h6h,7d6d,7h5h,7c5c,7d5d,6h5h,6d5d,6h4h,6d4d [60%, 236 combos]

    Turn:
    :QS:
    The SB checked the flop and turn. Would this player ever check both streets with:
    J8? Yes
    AQ? Yes
    AT? Yes

    Villain's range: AA-JJ,66,22,AKo-AQo,KQo,QJo,AKs-AQs,KQs,QJs-Q4s,AcTc,AdTd,Kh9h,Kc9c,Kd9d [35%, 78 combos]

    River:
    :4D:
    The SB overbets the river.

    Equity to call: $250/($190+$250+$250) = 0.3623 or 36%.
    Villain's range: AA-JJ,66,22,AKo-AQo,KQo,QJo,AKs-AQs,KQs,QJs-Q4s,AcTc,AdTd,Kh9h,Kc9c,Kd9d [73%, 56 combos]
    Hero's Equity according to Flopzilla: 38.96%.
    EV = $690*.3896-$250*.6104=+$116
    Therefore, it is a call, marginal call at best.





  • kevinhaggykevinhaggy Red Chipper Posts: 25 ✭✭
    My range for villain's is a lot different from other's on here. I had villain on the river betting with 216 combos. I would think a drunk lag spewy would be tossing in chips a lot more then around 44 threw 70 combos what most people have.
  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 430 ✭✭✭
    Preflop: 38.7% #Combos 474
    VILLAIN'S RANGE:
    AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q7s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s
    He completes with any 2 suited and Kxo Most Qx and off suit connectors Raises rest

    Flop:JH: :6C: :2D:
    63% of Previous Range #Combos 299
    VILLAIN'S RANGE:
    AA-JJ,AKo-A7o,A5o-A2o,KQo-KTo,QJo,AKs-A7s,A5s-A2s,KQs-K7s,K5s-K2s,QJs-Q7s
    Given how wide the SB’s preflop range was, do you think the SB would check or bet with the following hands?
    Weak JX Hands? Bet
    77 or 65s? Bet
    King Queen? Bet
    Such a dry flop I would expect him to Cbet a lot of hands such as Jx,or better, overcards, middle pair and monsters he checks, and checks total really bad air.. Almost disconcerting he checked

    Turn: QS:
    21.2% of Previous Range #Combos 63.3
    VILLAIN'S RANGE
    JJ-99,66,22,A6o,KTo,T9o,A6s,K6s,T9s,86s,76s,65s-64s
    The SB checked the flop and turn. Would this player ever check both streets with:
    J8? No
    AQ? No
    AT? Yes
    Never checking twice J8 AQ or A10 Never checking Qx+ on turn Might check 2pr or better to trap especially when Q on turn
    The SB check-raises your $30 bet up to $70 total.
    Based upon the hands that the SB would check the flop and turn with, would they check-raise:
    Top Pair? Yes
    Gutshots? No
    Bluffs? No

    River:4D:
    100.0% of Previous Range #Combos 63.3
    VILLAIN'S RANGE:
    JJ-99,66,22,A6o,KTo,T9o,A6s,K6s,T9s,86s,76s,65s-64s
    The SB overbets the river.
    On the river V has very few value hands and the ones he does are 2pr+ which he would want to get paid for. So the best play here is to overbet all hands

    Should you call this bet? Yes
    Have to call Hand has 87% equity at this point
  • bogata XLbogata XL Red Chipper Posts: 29 ✭✭
    Preflop I give a spewy drinking gambler a 70% SB-openraise range, 934 combo's.

    On the flop this opponent will bet all overpairs and each made pair. And the flop is dry, so he will bet his strong Aces AK and AQ also. I remove from his range 77+, Jx, 6x and 2x
    The sets I leave in his range, because he wants to do some nice xraising with it.

    So his checking-range is 531 combo's.
    56% of his openingrange.

    TURN
    Q: would he chk J8? No
    Q: would he chk AQ? No
    Q: would he chk AT? Probably he would bet this GS.
    Also all the sets he would bet now, so I take the sets out of his range.
    All Qx hands I take out of his range.

    His checkrange is 406 combo's.
    80% of his previous range.

    He xraises 2.3 times.

    Q: would he xraise TP? No, he would have betted TP
    Q: would he xraise GS? Yes, that is possible
    Q: would he xraise as a bluff? Yes, definitely possible for a drinking gambler

    The small pocketpairs 55, 33, 44, 22 I take out of his range, I think he would xcall those.
    I take half of the craphands out of his range. The other half I leave in his range.

    Xraise range is 268 combo's.
    66% of his checking-range.

    RIVER
    4d is a blank

    There are 4 combo's 53s that make a straight.
    4 out of 268 combo's. So the biggest part of his range is crap.

    Flopzilla gives my hand 98% equity versus his range.

    The overbet-size is in general a very strong hand or a craphand.
    It can be a busted SD.

    Flopzilla gives my hand 98% equity versus his range.
    The price is 250 for a total pot of 690.
    This is 36%.
    So we CALL this overbet with TP reasonable kicker.
  • Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
    Hand 14
    Preflop: I am putting the spewy LAG in the SB on a 45% range to open with; 45% (552 combos) AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K7o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o,87o,76o,65o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s.
    “Complete” means to call my raise? What would my opponent call with, vs 4B? So I drop out the upper part of his assigned range leaving a 30% (364 combos) 88-22,ATo-A7o,KJo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,76o,65o,ATs-A2s,KJs-K8s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-74s,65s-63s,54s-53s,43s.
    But I don’t raise to confirm this new range, I call his 5 BB raise, and this puts him back on the full 45%. I am IP.
    Flop :JS: :6c :2d
    SB checks, I check back, seeming like the flop didn’t hit either of us but the lack of a continuation from a LAG is highly suspicious, or is he giving up quick? He should have bet Jx, 77+ 65s and KQ. I take him off of any overpair leaving him only Jx 66 and 22. The is is 15% of previous range (75 combos) JJ,66,22,AJo,KJo,QJo,JTo-J8o,AJs,KJs,QJs,JTs-J8s I do not believe he has a hand at this point.
    Turn :Qs
    He checks and I really become suspicious that he is slow playing a set and I must be careful about a donk bet from him now. Raising preflop might have provided me a clue now but that option is long gone. He would not be checking a J8 on either of the last two streets and AQ, AT are already eliminated from his range. My fear becomes QJ, JJ, 66, and 22 which is 46% of his previous range (15 combos). His spewyness helps him if he has a hand and he donks on the river. I bet $30 and he check raises to $70. Based on his description he is not a player who thinks about what I think of him. He is not going to think about slow playing then acting spewy to throw me off. He is just continuing with his frivolity as usual. He check raises everthing including top pair gut shots and bluffs.
    River :4d
    I feel the bet sizing ($250) is an act of desperation, and that my hand has showdown value, and this gambler has to be called or no one else is going to have any fun.
  • Naïm TerracheNaïm Terrache Red Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
    Hand 14

    Preflop Range : AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s

    % Form 33.3 / Combos 442

    I assign a large range to our Villain for the obvious description given. He will gamble, play a lot of hands, and could play in a unorthodox way on future streets.

    Flop Range : JJ,66,22,A6o,A6s,76s,[50]AKo-AQo,ATo-A7o,A5o-A3o,KQo,KTo-K9o,QTo-Q9o,T9o,AKs-AQs,ATs-A7s,A5s-A3s,KQs,KTs-K9s,QTs-Q9s,T9s,98s,87s[/50]

    % Form 36.8 / Combos 123

    This check is suspicious. Villain showed us he's not afraid to bet, bluff, and be cocky. This check is already polarizing his hand, nuttish combos or pure air. I think he would bet all his Overcards, PP, and 1-Pair hand, due to the board and his dry texture, and also for value.

    What could he check with? All sets JJ/66/22 and half of the time Ace High hands and Pure Air hands, like T9/98/87.

    Given how wide the SB’s preflop range was, do you think the SB would check or bet with the following hands?
    Weak JX Hands? Bet
    77 or 65s? Bet
    King Queen?Bet

    Turn Range after the check-raise : JJ,66,22,[50]AQo,KQo,KTo,QTo-Q9o,T9o,AQs,KQs,KTs,QTs-Q9s,T9s[/50],[25]K9o,K9s,98s,87s[/25]

    % Form 34 / Combos 42

    His check-raise on the turn should ring some bells. Would he bluff in this situation, even with his crazy image? He could have picked up a straight draw on the turn like KT or T9, this is 30% of his actual range, the rest of the time he has TP with various kickers, and sets.

    His TP range consists of AQ/KQ/QT/Q9.

    If Villain has TP, we are currently behind 6 combos, tying with 2 combos, and ahead 3 combos.

    There is no QJ in his range because we assume he would bet any J on the flop, taking away QJ from his checking range.

    River Range : JJ,66,22,[50]AQo,KQo,QTo-Q9o,AQs,KQs,QTs-Q9s[/50]

    % Form 57.1 / Combos 24

    The SB overbets the river. Does this bet size indicate anything about his range? Super polarized
    Would he turn a single-pair into a bluff? Very possible
    Should you call this bet? No.

    There is a possibility that this player would bluff overbetting the river, but according to my range analisis he doesnt have any bluffs in his range, which now consists only of TP with various kickers or slowplayed sets.

    We're beating only a small percentage of this range and we should fold. What do you guys think?

    Thanks for your feedback,
  • Troy HTroy H Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    Note: A drinking player who is loose and has no problem showing bluffs and gambling. That is a player who has a ride range preflop. I doubt the villain completes with many hands if any.

    Preflop Range: 45% 600 combos without blockers, 544 with. AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K8o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o,87o,76o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q7s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s,54s,43s,32s
    pal5h6hxcef2.png


    FLOP: :Jh :6c :2d

    I don't think that the SB has a x/r raise on the flop, so I doubt a spewy player such as villain would take a "weak" line and x/c or x/f...therefore I think he bets all pairs and checks his air balls. I do think he bets AK/AQ on the flop.

    Flop Range: 58.1% previous range and 288 out of the 496 combos (card removal) ATo-A7o,A5o-A3o,KQo,KTo-K8o,QTo-Q8o,T9o-T8o,98o,87o,ATs-A7s,A5s-A3s,KQs,KTs-K7s,K5s-K3s,QTs-Q7s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s,75s,54s,43s
    qfux14se5hnf.png

    TURN: :Qs

    Villain checks and we bet $30 into $50. I believe the villain would lead all gutshots and AT on the turn after we've shown weakness on the flop.

    The villain x/r to $70
    I believe that they would x/r TP and gutshots as their bluffs. I do not believe a $70 size = any worse bluffs than a gutshot. We call.

    Villain's range: 25% of previous range. 68 combos. ATo-A7o,A5o-A3o,KQo,KTo-K8o,QTo-Q8o,T9o-T8o,98o,87o,ATs-A7s,A5s-A3s,KQs,KTs-K7s,K5s-K3s,QTs-Q7s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s,75s,54s,43s

    *I have weighted the gutshots as 30%.
    toihm728rexg.png

    The amount of draws to hands we are beating is like 2.4-1

    RIVER: :4d

    Villain overbets the river, giving us 1.8-1. We would need to be good 35% of the time here.

    All of his gut-shots and straight draws brick out. The only hands he has in his range at this point is KQo,QTo-Q9o,KQs,QTs-Q9s. We tie with 6 combos, lose to 8, and win against the 8 he is beating us with, KQ. Our hand is best 36% of the time, and we are tied 27% of the time. This is not including the random spazz that the opponent bets out with missed draws, which would give us even better odds to call.

    We call.

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