Live Winrates at 1/2, 2/5, 5/10

OneManCold85OneManCold85 Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
edited February 2017 in General Concepts
Hey guys,

I'm just wondering what a top player (in each stake) can expect to win at live 1/2, 2/5, and 5/10 cash games in typical games at casinos/local clubs?

I understand that most players lose, a lot break even, some win, and even fewer win for good hourly rates, but I'm wondering what those good hourly rates at each stake might look like.

1) I'm trying to set some goals, so I'd like to know what the best winning players at each stake is likely to make per hour.

2) I'd like to be someone who can play in the games above 2/5 in the next year or so and am working my ass off to do so.

3) I'm also starting to take frequent shots at 2/5 at Foxwoods, and doing pretty well (above break-even) so far after maybe 5 sessions. The thing is that I'm beating the 1/2 games I play in so well that I'm not sure if playing the higher variance/higher bankroll swing 2/5 games are even a good idea at this time. I'm averaging over $50 per hour at these 1/2 games. I'm sure I am the recipient of some great variance over this period of only about 200-300 hours. BUT that being said, this game is so so so good, maybe its sustainable?

So, what are some of the expected winrates in these kinds of games?

Thanks!!
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Comments

  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    If you are making 25 bbs an hour at 1-2, I find it hard to believe that it's sustainable or not due to a relatively small sample size. 10,000 hands at 300 hours maybe? 50,000 hands would be a lot better indicament. However, the problem with live poker is the threshold for a 'good sample size' is going to end up with old data that is likely invalid for how the game has changed since the early hands in the sample
  • OneManCold85OneManCold85 Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
    Totally agree Filthy. And my game has also changed a lot since I started keeping these records a year or so ago.

    The thing is, I'm never going to have a huge sample size as I have a job and am only playing live poker max 30 hours per month at this point. But would still like to move up and be confident about my choice. Ya know.
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    Totally agree Filthy. And my game has also changed a lot since I started keeping these records a year or so ago.

    The thing is, I'm never going to have a huge sample size as I have a job and am only playing live poker max 30 hours per month at this point. But would still like to move up and be confident about my choice. Ya know.

    With a job, and the hourly not really affecting if you eat or not, don't be afraid to take a shot. A lot of the 'rules' get mixed up somewhere between doing poker as a living and taking it seriously ( bankroll management being one of the more common ones). It'd be hard to turn down 50 an hour for a hobby at 1-2 I would admit, but even if you go play 2-5 for a bit and come back down, that exposure could help you in the 1-2 game. It can also give you an idea of when the water is warm and the fish are nibbling at the 2-5 table and the game might be too juicy to turn down. You're not going to know when the water is right if you never get your feet wet.

    And on that note, I met my analogy quota for the year in this post....pizzah!
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    edited June 2016
    As a general rule of thumb, usually 10 BBs an hour is when you'll want to take shots at the next level if you wanted a measuring stick. At least this was the standard a few years ago. I'd recommend basing it more off comfort level though and how often you run into situations that your baffled by than hourly. Especially if you are going to have a relatively limited time at the table

    Some other forums ive seen some posters mention that as a 5-10 pro, they are sitting around a 7.5 BB an hour rate. Granted, it's all going to be hugely reliant on game availability and texture. I also heard some semipros will stay at the 2-5 table when the 5-10 opens up because all the good players run to that table and that alone makes there hourly skyrocket .
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    $1/$2 games given stacks are not super short and you table select well.

    $1/$2 7bb-15bb (max!!!) $30/hr at $1/2 is absolutely crushing and the very best players $20-$25 here.

    Variance $600-$2000 on the high side doesn't happen often for tags in live games, but I have taken a $2000 swing before and $600 swings are very common. I've also had 3-4 weeks straight without a losing day and a $6k upswing.

    $2/$5 similar to $1/2 win rate of (7bb-12bb) ($35-$60/hr)
    $2/5 is a much more aggressive game so taking variance a bit further than $1/$2 since those games are passive 4-10 buyins should be a relatively common swing ($2000-$5,000).

    $5/$10 can range 5bb-12bb ($50-$120bb)

    I do not have any experience at this level, but have read quite a bit about win rates. I do not know what kind of variance to expect in these games, but I think it would greatly vary based on stack sizes. A lot of these games do not have caps or if there is a cap it would be set about $3k.

    Ed miller in small stakes NL holdem described bankroll management as 100 buyins. There was a $1/$2 pro online who said given different variables can take up to a $30k swing (150 buyins). This would be an extreme case, but I guess its more possible online given you have less information available to you based on live tells and much tougher games.


    Good starting sample size for $1/2 to get some idea of your win rate in live games is minimum of 500 hours and thats very rough and 1000 hours is what I use as a starting point. If after a 1000 hours I am making 7bb+ I'll move up if my bankroll is sufficient.
  • Riverboat BillRiverboat Bill Red Chipper Posts: 454 ✭✭
    edited June 2016
    I think you have to go by your wallet. If you play poker and your money keeps growing. You are a winning player. If you keep replenishing your br, well. Moving up. I think you will know. If you move up and your money keeps growing.
  • thenightfox7thenightfox7 Red Chipper Posts: 3 ✭✭
    so what if you only play weekends? can you make 25bb/h?
  • thenightfox7thenightfox7 Red Chipper Posts: 3 ✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    $1/$2 games given stacks are not super short and you table select well.

    $1/$2 7bb-15bb (max!!!) $30/hr at $1/2 is absolutely crushing and the very best players $20-$25 here.

    Variance $600-$2000 on the high side doesn't happen often for tags in live games, but I have taken a $2000 swing before and $600 swings are very common. I've also had 3-4 weeks straight without a losing day and a $6k upswing.

    $2/$5 similar to $1/2 win rate of (7bb-12bb) ($35-$60/hr)
    $2/5 is a much more aggressive game so taking variance a bit further than $1/$2 since those games are passive 4-10 buyins should be a relatively common swing ($2000-$5,000).

    $5/$10 can range 5bb-12bb ($50-$120bb)

    I do not have any experience at this level, but have read quite a bit about win rates. I do not know what kind of variance to expect in these games, but I think it would greatly vary based on stack sizes. A lot of these games do not have caps or if there is a cap it would be set about $3k.

    Ed miller in small stakes NL holdem described bankroll management as 100 buyins. There was a $1/$2 pro online who said given different variables can take up to a $30k swing (150 buyins). This would be an extreme case, but I guess its more possible online given you have less information available to you based on live tells and much tougher games.


    Good starting sample size for $1/2 to get some idea of your win rate in live games is minimum of 500 hours and thats very rough and 1000 hours is what I use as a starting point. If after a 1000 hours I am making 7bb+ I'll move up if my bankroll is sufficient.

  • thenightfox7thenightfox7 Red Chipper Posts: 3 ✭✭
    What if you only play weekends? can you make 25bb/h then?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,285 -
    What if you only play weekends? can you make 25bb/h then?

    In Vegas only playing weekends would boost the hourly, but 25bb/hr is a reach.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • John FJohn F Red Chipper Posts: 25 ✭✭
    The main game in the casino I play is 2 3 with a 500 cap so it plays like 2 5.
    I have a thousand hour sample starting from 2017.
    274 sessions at an average of 3.6 hours. It's 25 months in total. 274÷25÷4=2.74 days.
    So you could say I play Friday Saturday & Sunday night's for like three and a half hour sessions.
    Most of everything I learned over the years I've learned from splitsuit sweeney so it's possible for you to learn everything I've learned. I consider myself one of the better players in the room at all times and the only reasons I don't play
    2 5 10 is because of the small player pool wich doesn't allow any game selection and the 1k cap on 2 5 10 witch creates a smaller SPR and limmits my game. No one is bet folding turns and rivers. I prefer to sit deeper in possition at 2 3 with 166 bigs.
    This sample includes a 10 buyin downswing and 17 winning sessions in a row directly after. Is that my A game? That was in 2017 though and I'm not sure how relevant it is to todays games. If we exclude that data and just look at 2018 & 2019 my winrate is 4.77 BB/hour for 2018 & 4.52 BB/hour for 2019
    I've still had several 5 buyin downswings in that time and I believe if I could time travel and come up with 20 one thousand hour samples this would be one of the worst ones.
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  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,030 -
    so what if you only play weekends? can you make 25bb/h?

    Long run? Almost impossible imo (unless you hit the absolute trifecta of ~0 rake + very deep effective stacks at all times + very soft competition)

    In the short term you could certainly do 25bb/hr, but I would never use that hourly rate when trying to figure out if I should go pro in a game...
  • Artvandelay74Artvandelay74 Red Chipper Posts: 2 ✭✭
    I wonder how these numbers are impacted by a spread limit versus a no limit game. I play in AZ where no limit doesn’t exist at casinos. The lowest spread limit game at my home casino is 2/3 with a $300 max bet. The 3/5 has a $500 max bet. I would guess this limits the possible win rate but I’m not sure if and by how much.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 457 ✭✭✭
    I wonder how these numbers are impacted by a spread limit versus a no limit game. I play in AZ where no limit doesn’t exist at casinos. The lowest spread limit game at my home casino is 2/3 with a $300 max bet. The 3/5 has a $500 max bet. I would guess this limits the possible win rate but I’m not sure if and by how much.

    Arizona does not have no limit games?! Yikes! I am visiting there for a few days and was planning to play.
  • EazzyEazzy Red Chipper Posts: 964 ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 3
    Ed miller has an interesting take on calculating your win rate in this article

    https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/22641-poker-strategy-with-ed-miller-estimating-your-winrate

    As he states he is discussing
    Before we answer the question, I want to make it clear that when I say “winrate” I’m talking about the forward-looking rate. “How much can you expect to win per hour in the future?” I’m not talking about winrate in the past—calculating that is obviously trivial.

    He suggest using Bayesian inference to adjust your win rate range as you get more data points (session results). You start with an estimated range...

    say everyone looses on average -12 an hour (the rake)....so before you ever play you might estimate your range as a studied player as -15 to 30 an hour....then each data point allows you to slightly tweak and tighten this range....using Bayesian Inference.....(which I only slightly understand)..

    Just thought I would put this out there for those who are interested...
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,285 -
    You can refine your Bayesian priors with sub-population win-rates of the best players at your limit. That's basically how all these estimates come about.
    Moderation In Moderation

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