Hand #31

JuliaJulia Red Chipper Posts: 5
This range v range section exposes my frequency problems -- or maybe the actions in this hand are unusual....

My raising over one limper range is:

AXs, suited bwy, KQo, AKo-ATo, AA-66, T9s-65s, J9s-97s. 218 combos, 16.44%

The boring TAG in CO's calling range is:

JJ-77, AKo, KQ, AQ-AT, A5s-A2s, KJs-T8s, QJs-76s, 162 combos, 12.22%

So here we have his range being stronger than mine, and he has position. I don't like either of these, but at least he's a boring TAG, so I can assume he'll be fit or fold on the flop.

FLOP: Js9h7h

According to HoldEQ, we each have about 50% equity here.

I check the flop, which I would not do with any value or any semi-bluffs. The board is too textured to allow a free card. I'm betting all overpairs, all Js, except leaving JTs so I have some TP in my checking range, betting two pair, all combo draws, all nut BDFDs, and all overcards. This leaves my checking range as:

A9s-A2s in diamonds and clubs only; KTs, QTs, JTs-65s, TT, 88, 66, 66 combos, 30% of previous. This is exactly my optimal frequency. But when the TAG calls, his range starts to dominate mine. His range is:

AKo, AQ, KQ, AT, QTs, A5s-A2s, TT, 88, 98s-76s, 104 combos, 64% of previous range.

I have him checking back his draws, even though he might bet them - but I can't count on that.

HoldEQ says I have 44% equity to his 56% equity. This is because I bet everything good or semi-good, so my checking range is weak, while his checking range includes all his draws.

TURN: Kh

This is a scare card, plus I pick up some equity. I bet 2/3 pot. My range is: KTs, QTs, JTs-65s, TT, 88, 66. All my suited aces drop off, because they weren't in hearts. 50 combos, 76% of previous range. It's only so high because the turn is a good bluffing card.

He calls, and his range is:

AKo, AQ, KQ, AT, QTs, TT, 88, A5hh-A2hh, 98s-76s. 92 combos, 79% of previous range.

This makes it clear that actually the Kh was a terrible bluffing card. It strengthens most of villain's range. Our respective equities are now 46% to 54%.

RIVER: 7d

Unfortunately, this looks like a great bluffing card to me too. Plus, HoldEq says my equity is now 52% to villain's 48%. I bet just over half pot. My range is:

KTs, QTs, JTs, TT, 98s-76s, 65hh. 31 combos, 62% of previous range.

When he calls, he has:

AQdd, ATdd, A5dd-A2dd; AKo, KQ, QTs, TT, 87s, 76s. 52 combos, 56.5% of previous range.

My range is good 35% of the time here, and his is good 65% of the time.

This line looks like a loser to me because it starts with a flop check, which takes out most of my strong hands. Also, I haven't factored in my fold equity. Villain is folding 11% of his hands on the turn and 43.5% of them on the river. So maybe it's a profitable line?

Comments

  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,930 -
    If he's folding 45% of the time to your river bet, and you bet 2/3 pot or less, you still make outright profit =)
    My new book lays out the playbook for AK. Grab your copy and start Optimizing Ace King!
  • tfaziotfazio Red Chipper Posts: 819 ✭✭✭
    Julia, glad to see you have gotten into part 3. I have been waiting for the forum to move along. Comparing your work to mine, We had the same for Hero Pre flop but I had Villain calling wider, 20%. Also I reduced my cbet freq to 60% being OOP and checking 40% . And had Over cards in my checking range. I considered check raising sets but thought Villain might not bet. I'm not turn betting much 40% but I'm betting the river a lot 90%
    I have Villain folding 66%. BTW take another look at some of your ranges and % and number of combos I could not get them to add up. Are you working in flopzilla? If not I suggest it. Card removal is hard to count otherwise. Great to see you get to part 3
  • tfaziotfazio Red Chipper Posts: 819 ✭✭✭
  • JuliaJulia Red Chipper Posts: 5
    thanks, tfazio. I didn't have HoldEq synching with Flopzilla and it doesn't do card removal without that. I can now calculate the correct number of combos and percentages.
  • tfaziotfazio Red Chipper Posts: 819 ✭✭✭
  • LtGrimmsLtGrimms Red Chipper Posts: 1
    Hey Guys, I Just wanted to fire out a quick question that I ran into while going over this hand.

    I have similar flop ranges to you guys but I think this creates problems for us. If we bet all our strong hands + draws (aprox 55% of range) then when we check we give our opponent the option to make an outright +EV play by betting. In other words we have almost no check calling range. Maybe 5-10% of our range is check calling and those are pretty weak hands. This means we fold almost 75% of the time after we check and this gives villain an outright +EV option.

    What are your guys' thoughts on this? Do we care?
  • NuttedNutterNuttedNutter Red Chipper Posts: 44
    HAND #31

    MY RANGE: AA-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s

    %FORM: 25.8%
    COMBOS: 342

    CO BORING TAG PF FLAT RANGE: JJ-22,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-A8s,A5s-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s,76s,65s,54s

    %FORM: 16.3%
    COMBOS: 216

    FLOP: :JS: :9H: :7H:

    HERO EQ: 49.96%
    VILL EQ: 50.504%

    HERO CHECK FLOP RANGE: TT,88,66-22,AKo-AQo,ATo,KQo,KTo,QTo,JTo,AKs-AQs,ATs-A2s,KQs,KTs-K7s,QTs-Q8s,JTs,J8s,T9s,98s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,AhJh,KhJh,QhJh,Th8h,Ts8s,9s7s

    MIDPAIRS, WEAK PAIR, ACE HIGH, FDS, OESDS, GUTSHOTS, PAIR+DRAW

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 59.1%
    COMBOS: 179

    CO BORING TAG CHECK BACK RANGE: TT,88,66-22,AKo-AQo,KQo,AKs-AQs,ATs-A8s,A5s-A2s,KQs,KTs-K9s,QTs-Q9s,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,AhJh,KhJh,QhJh,Th8h,Ts8s,9s7s

    MIDPAIRS, WEAK PAIR, ACE HIGH, FDS, OESDS, GUTSHOTS, PAIR+DRAW

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 84.2%
    COMBOS: 160

    T: :KH:

    HERO EQ: 52.01%
    VILL EQ: 47.98%

    HERO TURN BET RANGE: TT,AKo,ATo,KQo,KTo,QTo,JTo,AKs,ATs,KQs,KTs-K7s,QTs,JTs,T9s,86s,AhQh,AhJh,Ah8h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,AcQh,AdQh,AsQh,AhQc,AhQd,AhQs,QhJh,Qh8h,Jh8h,Th8h,Ts8s,9s7s,6h5h,6h4h,5h4h

    Flushes, straights, 2pair, TP, nut fd, 2nd nut fd, oesds

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 56.1%
    COMBOS: 125

    CO BORING TAG TURN CALL RANGE: TT,AKo,KQo,AKs,ATs,KQs,KTs-K9s,QTs,JTs,T9s,AhQh,AhJh,Ah8h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,AcQh,AdQh,AsQh,AhQc,AhQd,AhQs,QhJh,Th8h,Ts8s,9s7s,6h5h,5h4h

    Flushes, straights, 2pair, TP, nut fd, 2nd nut fd, oesd

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 46%
    COMBOS: 69

    R: :7D:

    HERO EQ: 47.126%
    VILL EQ: 52.874%

    HERO RIVER BET RANGE: AKo,KQo,KTo,QTo,AKs,KQs,KTs-K7s,QTs,AhQh,AhJh,AhTh,Ah8h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,QhJh,Qh8h,JhTh,Jh8h,Th8h,Ts8s,9s7s,8h6h,6h5h,6h4h,5h4h

    Boats, flushes, straights, K9s for 2pair, TP

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 64.5%
    COMBOS: 80

    CO BORING TAG RIVER CALL RANGE: AKo,KQo,AKs,KQs,KTs-K9s,QTs,AhQh,AhJh,AhTh,Ah8h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,QhJh,JhTh,Th8h,Ts8s,9s7s,6h5h,5h4h

    Boats, flushes, straights, K9s for 2pair, TP

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 71%
    COMBOS: 49

    Boats, flushes, straights, K9s for 2pair, TP

    HERO EQ: 49.27%
    VILL EQ: 50.73%

    Interesting exercise. I hope I did it correctly?























  • tfaziotfazio Red Chipper Posts: 819 ✭✭✭
    @NuttedNutter, Hey great to see someone else in the 3rd section post.
    I have been waiting for folks to catch up as James led us through the book pretty quickly in the seminar. I will review your work and compare to my findings. Keep up good work.
  • NuttedNutterNuttedNutter Red Chipper Posts: 44
    tfazio wrote: »
    @NuttedNutter, Hey great to see someone else in the 3rd section post.
    I have been waiting for folks to catch up as James led us through the book pretty quickly in the seminar. I will review your work and compare to my findings. Keep up good work.

    @tfazio Thanks bud, yeah my approach from the beginning for the first 2 hands I was looking at and comparing work with others. But I decided on the 3rd hand on I was just gonna go through the rest of the book w/o looking at anything until I finish out the last exercises and THEN go back and analyze every single spot, compare and contrast, go "further down the rabbit hole". Only a few more to go! So just wanted to keep the momentum going. So that I have these exercises as an ingrained habit, trying to stay consistent as possible even if life/schedule goes haywire some days. These exercises were put together well. Seems like it's been covering all of the sort of "what if" most common re-occurring spots for these stakes. Good stuff. Will be checking up on your work as well soon here shortly. Few days. GL at the tables :)
  • kevinhaggykevinhaggy Red Chipper Posts: 25 ✭✭
    WoW, I just did this hand, and my raising range threw the flop, turn, and by the river my equity 97% to his 3%. How could he just call with full houses and flushes, qauds or any of these types of hand on the river?
  • eselspieleselspiel Red Chipper Posts: 40 ✭✭
    hi All,
    I'm curious as to why you have a TAG (even a boring one) checking their flush draws. When I did this exercise, I assumed they would be raising when checked to.
    TIA
    ES
  • Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
    Hand 31
    Preflop: I open in a late position for 6 BB, after one limper, with a 30% range (398) AA-22,AKo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A5s,KQs-K8s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s.

    The CO only calls and the limper folds. When the CO just calls I think, capped range. I put his boringness on 13% (172) JJ-22,AQo-ATo,KQo-KJo,AQs-ATs,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s.

    Flop :Js :9h :7h
    I check and CO checks behind. My range is ahead by 4 points 52/48. I’d be aggressive unless I was still on a draw and his check says the same. If I’d hit trip jacks I would be betting because of his preflop call. I remove premium pairs. I would have bet two pair, so remove those. I remove sets from the pass through. I’m on 41% of previous (133) TT,88,AJo,KJo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,T9o,AJs,KJs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,J8s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s-86s,AhKh,AhQh,AhTh,Ah8h,Ah6h,Ah5h,KhQh,Kh8h,Qh8h,6h5h,6h4h,5h4h.

    He does not have two pair. He’s on 43% (65) JJ-77,AJo,KJo,AJs,KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AhQh,AhTh,KhQh,6h5h,5h4h.

    Turn :Kh
    When I bet $20 (2/3 pot) the CO just calls. I have Jacks and hopefully Jh. I’m on a draw for flush or straight. I am on 74% (91) of previous TT,KTo,QTo,JTo,T9o,KTs,QTs,JTs,T9s-T8s,86s,AhQh,AhJh,AhTh,Ah8h,Ah6h,Ah5h,QhJh,Qh8h,AhJc,AhJd,QhJc,QhJd,Jh8h,6h5h,6h4h,5h4h

    When CO calls he is saying he has a jack or a king, one heart. They are not on a straight draw. They are on 62% (38) of previous JJ-99,77,KJo,KJs,JTs,T9s,AhQh,AhJh,AhTh,QhJh,AhJc,AhJd,6h5h,5h4h

    My equity is now 48% theirs is 52%

    River :7d
    My range is 60% (55) of previous . It still contains top pair, or two pair but much more likely I’ve got a flush or flush draw. KTo,QTo,KTs,QTs,T8s,AhQh,AhJh,AhTh,Ah8h,Ah6h,Ah5h,QhJh,Qh8h,JhTh,Jh8h,8h6h,6h5h,6h4h,5h4h. The range equity is the same 52/48 so betting will be interesting.

    Their range is narrowed down to 63% (23 ) it’s a flush or bust. When they just call, then I’m thinking it is a flush in the low register, perhaps 5h4h or 6h5h.

    My range equity drops to 32% theirs is 68%

    I’m happy they just call my bet.



  • bogata XLbogata XL Red Chipper Posts: 29 ✭✭
    PREFLOP
    My MP2-iso-range
    55+
    A2s-A5s, A8s+
    ATo+
    BrBrs
    KQo
    T9s

    178 cb
    15%

    CO-TAG-callrange
    22-JJ
    AT-AQ
    KJ+
    54s-KQs

    159 cb
    13,5%

    My equity 55%
    His equity 45%

    FLOP
    I would cbet sets, OP, TP, FD and OESD

    My checkrange
    PP below TP
    MP
    Ahigh
    BrBr no made hand
    GS

    128 cb
    75% of prf-range

    His check-behind range
    Villain would bet sets, OP, TP, FD and OESD
    Maybe his pocketpairs 88 -TT
    He will bluff some hands

    He will check behind with
    MP
    WP
    Ahigh 50% filter
    GS 50% filter
    some FD+pair, FD + overcards etc.

    106 cb
    72% of his prf-range

    My equity 49%
    His equity 51%

    TURN
    Kh
    This card is better for our range than for his range.
    My equity becomes 54% and his equity 46% (considering the 2 whole flopranges).

    My bet-range
    Flush 11 cb
    Straight 3cb
    TP 27cb
    NutFD 9 cb
    2ndNutFD 6cb

    50 cb
    42% of floprange

    His callrange
    WP and MP he will fold, the WP were the half of his floprange
    Flush he will raise if he has the NutFl, so I give FL 50% filter

    TP 12 cb
    NutFD 4,5 cb
    Fl 50%filter= 3,5 cb

    20 cb
    20% of his floprange

    My equity vs his turncallrange = 59%
    His equity 41%

    RIVER
    7d
    My TP I would bet, but a smaller betsize, so I eliminate TP of my betrange.

    My 2/3betrange
    I bet 2/3 with
    Flush 11cb
    Straight with QTs 3cb

    14 cb
    28% of my turnrange

    His callrange
    He would raise NutFlush, so I eliminate NutFlush of his range.
    Non-nutted flush 2 cb
    TP 12 cb

    14 cb
    77% of his turnrange

    My equity is 94%.






  • AP07AP07 Red Chipper Posts: 22 ✭✭
    This hand seems to hinge on whether we are betting all our flush draws and whether our opponent would bet his when checked to. Against a boring TAG when I have betting initiative I would generally bet all my flush draws, which means once I check I have no flushes on the turn. This is clearly exploitable but are we worried a boring TAG will capitalize? Against better competition I should beef up my checking range and include some good draws. But against an average boring TAG I think I'm fine to fire this flop with my draws as I expect he'd fold too often.

    Whether he's betting his is tougher to gauge. If we range him as betting his draws when checked to, the turn becomes a very neutral card. If we think he'd check them back then we are cooked on the turn as he's got all the nutted hands and we have none.

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