98o bet sizing

AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 2,514 ✭✭✭✭
$1\$2\$2 (open is $5)
4 limpers ($5)
Pot is ($23)
Hero bb 98o with $3 to complete. This is usually a fold for me but 7:1 can dictate a call.

Flop ($26) 9d8d5s
Hero checks
Lag bets $12
Btn calls $12
Hero raises to $60
($200 effective).

Wanted to make a large raise here and preferably just take it down. Setting up a shove on the turn for near pot. However, there are not a whole lot of good turn cards for me which is why i decided on the biggee (5x) raise.

Should u complete bb?
Should i lead flop?
How is my sizing on xr?
«1

Comments

  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 1,795 ✭✭✭✭
    one day... and I hope one day soon, @Austin
    you will come to understand that poker isn't about "taking down pots"
    it's about making smart choices

    consider this:
    what's your Vs ranges?
    what if someone has 76?
    what if someone has 55?

    what's wrong with betting $20 and playing poker?
    AP, you're treating your game like it's a slot machine.
    you call hoping to hit 2-pair or better - and then you're going all aggro.

    yeah, maybe someone's got T9 and a T is on the turn.
    Or someone's got JT and a Q in on the turn.
    So what?

    We'll get to that street when it comes - and we'll make the best decisions then.

    Stop being a hammer and seeing everything as a nail.

    To answer your Qs:
    yes, complete BB.
    yes, lead flop.
    pot is 50 when it gets back to you - making it 60 means Vs will have to call 48 to win 110..... giving them 2.3 :1 that's 43%
    which means any 8-out draw is getting the right price...
    basically, any straight draw or any flush draw....
    so for Q#3 - you tell me:
    we're oop.
    we're bloating up the pot
    we're giving correct odds for all draws to chase
    we're getting ZERO information as to whether we're ahead or behind on the hand
    and we're creating a low SPR situation where we now can't bet/fold

    so, how do YOU like the sizing?
  • nominaliznominaliz Red Chipper Posts: 12 ✭✭
    I actually like you line there but I would consider a few things:

    1) Definitely a call preflop, you could try and steal but I don´t think it would work often enough.

    2) You have to consider a few things: if you check raise to 60 and face an all in, you are pretty much committed so, what would be your chances when faced with an all in, would players shove a flush draw? Would they shove a pair + gunshot or would they only shove 55, 67 and somehow 88 or 99? Also, are they going to show up with 85/95/A5/A8/A9 very often?
    After considering that my decision between leading and check raising would depend on the opponents range that I´m giving and on how likely are they going to bet on the flop. Having a LAG who is more likely to bet would incline me towards check raising and punish the draws because what happens when you bet and get called and face a bad card on the turn? So generally i liked your line.

    3) I think 60 is not that bad, it´s a big bet for them to draw and it allows you to shove on the turn when a brick comes
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 1,795 ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 2016
    nominaliz wrote: »
    I actually like you line there but I would consider a few things:

    3) I think 60 is not that bad, it´s a big bet for them to draw and it allows you to shove on the turn when a brick comes

    Flop: :9D: :8D: :5S:
    we've got 98os
    we've got no description or range on V1 & V2

    if we get called....
    what cards don't we like?
    any :XD: , any Q, any J, any T, any 7, any 6, any 5
    that's 9 + 3 +3 + 3 + 3 + 3 +2 = 26 cards?
    we might also not like any K - as K9 is possible
    or any A as A8 or A5 is possible.

    so basically more than 1/2 the deck makes it hard for us to continue...
    and we've built a pot oop - basically giving our Vs the perfect reverse implied odds (RIO) scenario!

    by making it 60 and leaving ourselves with essentially 1 SPR -we've told our villains that we LOVE our hand and we're probably going all in on the turn...
    yet more than 1/2 the deck hurts our hand!... as well as we might already be behind our opponent's calling range!

    as played - we're basically inviting our Vs to play perfect by calling our check/raise because they can most likely get our entire stack on the turn.
    and should a "scare card" come and we check - they could probably bluff us, no?

    so based on this... how is a check/raise to 60 here not that bad?

    yes, we have a strong hand.
    but since the board is so wet - IMO, building a pot oop is really a recipe for disaster
  • nominaliznominaliz Red Chipper Posts: 12 ✭✭
    I see your point, this is a tough spot, one of those slightly +/- EV but if we just lead against 2 players most likely at least one of them is going to call even if it´s just floating to bluff on one of the bad turns and then we have to make an exploitable fold. If we consider a check raise, we get the chance to get some information and we charge more their draws and eliminate bluffs.

    Also, you have to think about your opponent´s range, a T or J may not be such a bad cards because a J only improves T6 and TQ and are those hands calling a check raise? And a T only improves QJ and again, are they really calling a check raise with just a gutshot and 2 overs? If so I am very happy with check raise (maybe even an 75 bucks bet) to really punish those draws.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 2,514 ✭✭✭✭
    Sorry Kagey but completely disagree once again

    Let's go over some of the things you said and why I disagree. I actually got out of bed to reply to this instead of using my phone.

    #1 you will come to understand that poker isn't about "taking down pots"
    it's about making smart choices

    My response: Flopping top two pair on 9d8d5s board; yes, I want to take down the pot instead of facing some tough turn decisions, but if they decide to call or raise then I go with my hand on any none diamond turn. My raise was not as a "bluff" and to only "take down the pot." My raise was for value as a lot of worse hands will call. For example is KdTd ahead here? What about JT, QT, A9, 5d6d, 5d4d, other naked flush draws like 3d3d, pocket pairs that might of limped like TT?

    How does two pair fair against some of these hands?
    98 vs 5d4d = 60/40
    98 vs 5d6d = 52/48
    98 vs JdTd = 47/53
    98 vs JhTd = 64/36
    98 vs KdTd = 62/38

    If they have 55 or 76 so be it. Are they betting $12 into $26? Unlikely a lag would under bet a made hand on a wet board after giving so much action. I am coin flipping vs top of their range JdTd, but does a lag limp in with that hand? A lot of the range I am behind they do not have because it was a limped pot.

    #2 what's wrong with betting $20 and playing poker?
    AP, you're treating your game like it's a slot machine.
    you call hoping to hit 2-pair or better - and then you're going all aggro.

    There so so much wrong with this statement. How is playing top two pair aggro like playing a slot machine? How is my equity vs an average range? Whats wrong with wanting to take down 24bb thats already in the pot and deny them their equity? Yes, I am calling 7:1 hoping to flop a monster and get away from a hand like 79A flop. Thats playing poker. Maybe 955 flop I can bet like $15 and fold to aggression. If I am going to play 98o yes I want to flop two pair or better. I am not going to fold because I didn't flop a straight or play scared because they may have 76 or 55. I gave several examples in these forums of how loose my games play. Hell they can can have 85o here and I double up two pair vs lower two pair. My games are loose and crazy at times. Cannot and will not play scared in these games or guaranteed to lose money. Waiting for the nuts in a low SPR structure game you are going to lose money. If I am not going to play 98o aggro on this flop why am I playing 98o to begin with?

    #3 what's wrong with betting $20 and playing poker?
    This is part of #2 also, but i'll address it a little separately. There is nothing wrong with betting $20 and playing poker here. Whats wrong with x/r to $60? Is it not poker? Do the villains I play against fold everything by 55 and 76? If they have Overs + FD they are going to gamble and i'll enjoy a 24% edge. There are plenty of boards i'll bet $15-$20 on into $26 pot.

    Flop Textures
    982 bet $20
    99K bet $20
    89K rainbow bet $20
    998 probably bet $15

    There is nothing wrong with leading here, but say I lead $20 on 9d8d5s and get a caller. Now pot is $66 and say effective stacks are $200 so $175 left. Your in a SPR situation of 2.65 : 1. What turn cards are you betting or are you going for showdown value with 2 pair? As you said there are not a lot of good turn cards and we are oop. Villains can easily keep calling us down. Say now we bet $40 on the turn on a Ks. 9d8d5sKs and get called again. On the river pot is ($146) and we have $135 left. Are you checking Ah on the river? Are you check calling all in? How do you know if your ahead or behind? Did they miss their flush? Did they already have a set, straight, or now higher two pair? Your line its hard to get stacks in and be called by worse. My line stacks can get in and force villains to gamble with their draws.

    #4 yeah, maybe someone's got T9 and a T is on the turn.
    Or someone's got JT and a Q in on the turn.
    So what?

    Yes, exactly!!! If they call my $48 raise and turn is a J or T or Q so what? As nomanaliz said are they calling my raise with TQ for a gutter? JT only makes top pair on a turn J or T. Only bad turn card for me is 7, Q or diamond. Any other card I am shoving. Even a 7 or Q I might shove because they probably have more flush draws in their range than JT. At least by raising the flop I am getting more money in while im ahead. OOP you want to play more aggro and take down the pot early on wet boards when your hand is vulnerable.

    #5 pot is 50 when it gets back to you - making it 60 means Vs will have to call 48 to win 110..... giving them 2.3 :1 that's 43%
    which means any 8-out draw is getting the right price...
    basically, any straight draw or any flush draw....

    Again thank you for the math breakdown, but you are assuming they are seeing both cards. They need only 30% equity at 2.3 to 1. Its not 1 divided by 2.3. Where as you got the money and ratio right your 43% is way off. 30% actually benefits your argument though. 8 outs is only about 17 or 18% with 1 card to come. You have to remember they still have to call another bet on the turn. Yes, you can say well if your going to shove the turn that gives them implied odds if they hit. "if they hit" are the key words. Where as leading the flop for $20 to win $195 almost 10:1 compared to calling $48 to win $245 if I shove turn they are getting 5:1. So now I ask you giving them 10 to 1 or 5 to 1 better for me?

    Maybe you are assuming I lost this hand and I am only posting based on results? I often post whether I win or lose. I would assume most of my post are 60% losses and 40% wins. Even the hands I win I am trying to improve my game. Hence the title of "bet sizing."

    Do not get me wrong, I enjoy these little debates with you. I even tried tightening up my game and trying to keep my SPR low in situations with 99 TT and AQ type hands yesterday and play more post flop poker rather than flipping preflop with TT vs AK or AQ and running into JJ+ AK range. I do take some of your advice. I do not only disagree with your post and argue because I think I am right. I do consider your opinion and try to apply it after doing some studying on ranges.

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 2,514 ✭✭✭✭
    #6 so for Q#3 - you tell me:
    we're oop.
    we're bloating up the pot
    we're giving correct odds for all draws to chase
    we're getting ZERO information as to whether we're ahead or behind on the hand
    and we're creating a low SPR situation where we now can't bet/fold

    so, how do YOU like the sizing?

    A) yes, were oop thats a given.
    B) yes, we are bloating the pot while we are ahead!??!? That's good poker!!! Do 98o vs their range and tell me why bloating the pot is bad while im ahead on equity.
    C) We are not given correct odds for them to draw to 1 card as math is broken down above at 2.3 to 1 they need 30% and unless they have JdTd precisely (15 outs) they do not have 30% for 1 card.
    D) We do have information as we know one player is a lag. Is lag betting small with a made hand like 76 or 55 on a wet board? Information is there if you assign some basic ranges and apply betting patterns or sizes to their hands. We can bet fold on any diamond. If they are calling $48 into $110 with a FD, but not getting paid on diamond turn are they correct? Of course we don't know for certain if we are ahead or not, but if you knew that you would be at the highest level of poker there is because you know what everyone holds. Most players have to make educated guesses and assign ranges and rely on equity of RvR long run.
    kagey wrote: »
    nominaliz wrote: »

    Flop: :9D: :8D: :5S:
    we've got 98os
    we've got no description or range on V1 & V2

    if we get called....
    what cards don't we like?
    any :XD: , any Q, any J, any T, any 7, any 6, any 5
    that's 9 + 3 +3 + 3 + 3 + 3 +2 = 26 cards?
    we might also not like any K - as K9 is possible
    or any A as A8 or A5 is possible.

    so basically more than 1/2 the deck makes it hard for us to continue...
    and we've built a pot oop - basically giving our Vs the perfect reverse implied odds (RIO) scenario!

    by making it 60 and leaving ourselves with essentially 1 SPR -we've told our villains that we LOVE our hand and we're probably going all in on the turn...
    yet more than 1/2 the deck hurts our hand!... as well as we might already be behind our opponent's calling range!

    as played - we're basically inviting our Vs to play perfect by calling our check/raise because they can most likely get our entire stack on the turn.
    and should a "scare card" come and we check - they could probably bluff us, no?

    so based on this... how is a check/raise to 60 here not that bad?

    yes, we have a strong hand.
    but since the board is so wet - IMO, building a pot oop is really a recipe for disaster

    #7 I guess if your villain holds, JT, T7, 56, 87, K9, A9, QT, and all FDs all at once than its a bad play because he / she will hit every turn card LOL. Why bet $20 on the flop and "play poker" if they have 26 outs against us because in your mind they have every possible hand. Yes, some cards are bad for us, but that does not mean all of them are bad for us.

    I think I know whats going on in your mind. You have been playing or watching too much OMAHA!!!! Would I bloat the pot in Omaha? NO!!!! I've actually been studying Omaha a bit recently based on the LATB videos. In your mind you might be mixing up the two games; at least that is what your arguments states. With them holding all those hands and you wanting to bet fold on everything except 2 3 4 on the turn thats not a diamond because they can have T9, 9J, 9Q, K9, A9 etc.

    Some times Kagey your arguments are SHOCKING!!! Just for fun I did a omaha calculation just to prove your argument we are behind in this HOLDEM hand.

    Hero Holds :9h :8h :As :Kc 35%
    Villain holds :Td :Jd :Qs :Ks 65%

    In Omaha you are correct we are probably behind their range with two pair. If I change Ks to 9c its 68/32 in their favor.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 873 ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 2016
    Your bet sizing and reasoning are very solid here, Austin. Based on the games you've described in your posts, your opponents will call here quite often with much worse. They have no understanding of equity or odds and of they have outs and are ok with the price, they're going with it. Kagey stated "what if they have 55 or 67 here?" - SO WHAT? That's only a small amount of combos that they will call with here. If we're afraid that our opponent "may" hold the nuts then I guess 95% of flops we see we will play super cautiously against and won't maximize our value.

    Austin, I would take the same line as you, raising here FOR VALUE and to build a pot so that we can shove any non-diamond turn, although I may give some thought to slowing down on a Q or 4 card straight turn. Either way, the majority of turn cards will be good for us and allow us to profitably shove the turn. Well played.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 2,514 ✭✭✭✭
    Ninjah wrote: »
    Your bet sizing and reasoning are very solid here, Austin. Based on the games you've described in your posts, your opponents will call here quite often with much worse. They have no understanding of equity or odds and of they have outs and are ok with the price, they're going with it. Kagey stated "what if they have 55 or 67 here?" - SO WHAT? That's only a small amount of combos that they will call with here. If we're afraid that our opponent "may" hold the nuts then I guess 95% of flops we see we will play super cautiously against and won't maximize our value.

    Austin, I would take the same line as you, raising here FOR VALUE and to build a pot so that we can shove any non-diamond turn, although I may give some thought to slowing down on a Q or 4 card straight turn. Either way, the majority of turn cards will be good for us and allow us to profitably shove the turn. Well played.

    Honestly I am not sure if Kagey is just trolling my post or not any more... Since he is higher stakes player than myself it just makes me wonder about some of his comments. At times I think he is trolling than he breaks down some math and I realize he is being serious... LOL

    Thanks for the response. I will say had Villain (lag) bet larger, say the lag bets $40 into $26. I would consider just calling down as I would view this bet as a combo draw or a strong hand. Not really going to fold, but vs a lag I think we have to call down our two pair hands and fold to diamond turns, but call down any T-A turn and rivers. I prefer a call down line vs an overbet because now he can more likely have a hand like 55. 76, JdTd, or a hand like Ad6d all of which are either ahead of us or have pretty good equity vs us. The bet sizing I am facing greatly changes the line I take.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 2,514 ✭✭✭✭


    I think most people complete preflop with my hand. Spent the last 5 hours or so studying before going to the casino. Completing from the SB is one of the leaks I had in my game that I wanted to work on. This video helps a lot.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 544 ✭✭✭
    Complete, yes

    C/R wet board, love it. Nothing wrong with buying equity on this board
    Should be C/R shove to ensure call by draw is -EV for villain

    You called to hit miracle flop and it happened!! Things can change, get the money in and ride the runout. If you are already beat by another miracle flop, so be it. Your hand has outs to the nuts( well almost nuts)
  • JoeOffsuitJoeOffsuit Red Chipper Posts: 308 ✭✭✭
    1. I agree with calling pre-flop, because of the reduced price, AND that calling closes the action.

    2. I like leading this flop, because in my opinion this hand is too strong to risk it getting checked around. In addition to the draws, i think there are a lot of hands we are ahead of that might call a flop bet, but would't bet out. If we get called on the flop AND we get a safe card on the turn, we can lead again on the turn for very thick value.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 1,795 ✭✭✭✭
    Not trolling - @Austin

    Just trying to offer some sage advice as to how to play hands optimally
    (BTW - I'm glad you got out of bed to reply. I hope this becomes a poker "awakening" for you where to come to see the light!)

    On such a wet board - I, personally, am not building a huge pot OOP
    especially with such a short stack

    you know your games better than I do -
    so if a V limps pre-flop with 90% of his range
    and calls any bet/raise/check-raise/shove with 50% of that - then, yeah - you're betting line is brilliant. and possibly even profitable.
    maybe.

    but if you're playing against any average opponent who can read a board and see how strong his hand is relative to the board, then IMO you're betting line is optimistic at best.

    you're description of V being "LAG" is so generic - i don't see how it helps folks on the forums narrow down his range. but I'm going to interpret that as being loose pre and semi-loose post. so he plays a lot of suited aces, SC, SG and such.

    I'm glad to see you've broken down the equity against other hands
    it's a start
    But my point of why you should not check/raise is that you put yourself in a Way Ahead/Way Behind situation
    when everybody folds - then you were way ahead (and you probably missed value)
    but when you get called - it's likely that you're way behind (and you're losing chips)

    your "LAG" bets 12 into 26.
    what does that mean?
    You immediately assume that it's weakness.
    maybe it is.
    hopefully, you have a database of hands in your head (or in a book) where this particular LAG does this with draws, second pair or two overs - as a bet for info
    and that's why you checked. cuz he stabs at every pot.
    does he? I dunno
    but based on my interpretation of a "LAG"...
    I have to translate his bet as being anything from nutted hands to betting for info.

    (remember - these forums are like computer programs - GIGO. if you don't offer detailed info an player tendencies, then we're not all working from the same page)

    so when he bets - I don't know where I'm at.
    which is why I prefer to donk lead the flop.

    back to the numbers...
    against combo draws :5D: :6D: and :JD: :TD: we're not doing so hot
    Hands like :AD: :6D: or :AD: :7D: also have a ton of equity vs us.

    The thing that I'm trying to communicate here is that you should be considering V's range - not the actual hand that he has/had.
    when you look at his Calling Range (which is a subset of his Betting Range) - our hand becomes nothing more than a bluff-catcher

    Consider this:
    What hands would Austin or kagey bet/call 12/60 in position?
    I'm thinking most flush draws, right?
    Now since we didn't raise pre - we probably don't have AKs, AQs, AJs, KQs as well as ATs.
    But A7s, A6s, A5s, A4s are all in there.
    KJs, KTs, QJs, QTs, JTs, J7s, T7s, T6s, 76s, 75s, 65s... are also strong possibilities.
    I think 54s is optimistic. If V bets here (for information) - I find it unlikely that he'd call such a big reraise. (Of course, in our games - a check/raise is rare and usually means a nutted hand. in your games - in may occur in every hand. I dunno.)
    Okay so those are the likely flush combos. Of course K7s, K6s, Q7s, Q6s may also be there. Depends on the player looseness preflop.

    now on to made hands:
    99, 88, 55, 76 are all hands that crush us.
    (although we might expect a pfr from 99 or 88 - so those are less likely)
    95 we beat.
    98 we tie.

    now the draws:
    JT may peel one off. As might T7.
    the rest should fold out.
    typically, a check/raise should push out the draws we actually want him to keep in his range like 78, 97, 57, 68, 56, 96... and such which we're way ahead of... which goes back to my WA/WB point.

    a check/raise on the flop forces your opponent to call with a stronger range that has our two pair in trouble

    So here is my SHOCKING argument -
    against THIS RANGE of hands that an average poker player would play for a bet/call on the flop - we're behind.
    and when i say we're behind - I mean our equity is way below 50%
    which makes our check/raise NOT a value bet - but a hope-on-a-wing-and-a-prayer bet
    (aka a HOAWAAP bet)

    now you can range him much, much wider - if that's how he plays
    and you can range him even wider - so that the equity numbers move in your favor
    for me, I'd actually narrow his range because I don't see the spew you seem to assume with your Vs
    (which is how BOTH our arguments can be "correct" at the same time)

    Notice that I never used emotional words like "afraid" or "scared" to build my argument
    my arguments here is logical and mathematical

    when we bet the flop - we keep his Calling Range wide - so there are tons of hands he would call with that we beat... good for us
    should he raise us - then our Calling Range needs to be strong - (in this case, we could bet/call the flop and re-eval the turn)
    but when we check/raise the flop - we are forcing Vs to narrow his Calling Range into one that's got so much equity, that we're now behind that range
    make sense?

    how much equity do you think your LAG would give up to a check/raise?
    10%? 15%? 20%? 25%?
    maybe.
    but if he's got 32+% - I doubt he's folding.

    yeah - he and I are both calculating the equity based on two cards to come
    and your formula only uses one.
    but the irony here is - you can't know which turn card is truly a safe card other than a non-diamond 2-4... that's 9 cards.

    the funny thing is you're saying that you're giving up on all :XD:
    if you check/raised me and then checked a :XD: on the turn - I'm betting here with 100% frequency. which makes your flop check/raise very exploitable.
    (see the difference in leading out and V not knowing what we have - and check/raising and playing our hand face up?)

    look - it's cool for you to disagree
    sounds like you're playing more of a "feel" game than math game
    e.g., "say the lag bets $40 into $26. I would consider just calling down"

    I'm trying to show you that when you play against a V's NLH RANGE (not Omaha)
    your decisions become more sound and your results - more consistent and solid.

    feel free to flame away at this post - and mock the math
    I made the mistake of offering advice in another Austin post - where you have all the answers before you even post (which makes me wonder why you post at all)

    I have avoided offering insights into many of your posts because you seem to think that forum posts are "debates" as opposed to a "discussions." (Debates have winners. Discussions are about trading information.)

    Because poker is so V-dependent - I can never have the perfect answer. Just a well-thought-out solution that's based on a lot of unknowns that I'm filling in based on my experience. If you don't like - that's okay.
    But let's not get silly and accuse someone of mixing up NL hands with Omaha hands.
    I play both and do know the difference.
  • njpokanjpoka Red Chipper Posts: 40
    I actually really enjoy both of your posts Austin and Kagey and I think we should jsut squash any trolling/flaming debate becasue I read this with no dog in the fight and it just seems like legit poker disagreements.

    Austin, I think what kagey is saying that I only started realizing in my game within the last few months is that sometimes you can be ahead but those tough decisions you want to avoid facing on further streets can be avoidable but considering the Villain's range on the flop. I think 98 you are definitely ahead at this point, no question. I actually think what you did was fine here but not for the reasons you cited.

    We want villain to continue, we don't want to take it down here. When we are ahead we never wanna just "take it down." But with that being said, there is enough in Villain's range where on a wet board it may be better to keep the pot smaller and control rather than commit fully to this hand. As I mentioned in your other thread, it sounds like the hands you are losing on are often big all in hands when that isn't always necessary to win the hand and play for value.

    Consider on your own the benefits of say leading out vs. xr here. Honestly, I think it plays out +EV either way in general but keeps you from being pot committed if a card you don't like turns if you lead out and get 2 callers plus may give you an idea what they have.

    As played I think size was fine, maybe you could go to $70/5 for value. And your original question I'm fine with calling here for OOP preflop with this many callers.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 544 ✭✭✭
    C/R is about buying equity and having opponents make mistakes. To think that only better hands call is naive. People call incorrectly with all kinds of shit. It's kind of what we need.

    On a wet board like this, most of the time you are facing high equity hands but seldom have they made it yet. Many players will put all their money in behind here. That's good for us. Sometimes they will already be ahead or hit their card. Oh well. Sometimes if behind we will suck out. Hurray

    IMO in situations like this, over time, you will make more money putting max pressure on their hands/ranges with CR than just value betting until you think you're beat. Pressure equals mistakes
  • benlong10benlong10 Red Chipper Posts: 11
    I'm still trying to figure out how Kagey thought 43% was the pot odds. $110/$43 is 2.6:1. 100/3.6 is 28%. Any caller would need 28% equity to make a proper pot odds call and in theory any str8 and FD would have that equity, but in this case, Austin pointing out that this applies only when seeing two cards is the crux. Villain is likely only seeing one card against a check raiser. The check raiser is betting the turn a huge percentage of the time. Austin's raise is punishing those drawing and is way +EV, which is good, so the critique that he's "aggro" doesn't make sense. But another aspect of those drawing is occurring in my games...read below.

    TWO POINTS NO ONE HAS BROUGHT UP (I think)
    1. If villain is drawing, from personal experience, they love to put their whole stack in against Austin's check raise on the flop. This is actually a great +EV way for villain to generally play all his sets+two pair+draws for stacks. If villain thinks they can generate even a small percentage of folds from Austin when they have something like two diamonds and two over cards, they may be correct putting it in with 35% real equity. If they do this consistently with balance with their good hands also it becomes very hard to play these villains. In generally it's a +EV play for villain, and I see this play all the time in my $2/$5 live casino games that run 100-200bb deep. However, in this particular case I love these moves by villain if I'm Austin and I have 89o because villain has no fold equity here to make this a +EV play. Therefore, so many hands that go all in on this flop Austin is beating. SO LET'S GET THE MOST MONEY IN THE MIDDLE ON THE FLOP AS POSSIBLE. Don't sweat it. I'm just not going to wringue my hands over the very few combo hands that have me beat on the flop and I'm beating or have huge equity against all draws.

    Where the situation Kagey is talking about makes more sense is when the game is more deep stacked. Then it can be better to pot control with a flop donk bet I guess, as drawing hands can count on a much bigger portion of your stack as implied odds after a check raise. Almost any argument in poker can be right at some point in time. How often are we all playing 1000 bb deep where this is correct? Really? Austin clearly wasn't in that situation. I like the check raise to get the money in the pot.

    2. Austin had an original question about whether it was right to call pre-flop with 7:1 with 89o multiway. Everyone thought "YES" was the answer, and I agree, but just to do a little math on that in our software....Austin is getting 7:1, so he needs to flop a good playable hand with 89o about 12.5% of the time to justify the call. It turns out 89o flops two pair, three of a kind, full houses, straights, four of a kind, and OESD, and dbl gutted straight draws about 16.8% of the time, so this is a good +EV call by Austin. Moreover, if you add in the extra 7.5% of the time 89o flops top pair that could win you a pot, then Austin is in great shape. I think 4:1 is the breakeven on this call, maybe 4.5:1 to be safe, but this implies deft post flop play. If I'm at an easy table I'll gladly give away these odds to avoid post flop tough decisions and just let donkeys pay me when I know exactly where I stand with better hands. 7:1 is hard to pass up though.
  • benlong10benlong10 Red Chipper Posts: 11
    @kagey Why do you think CR the flop narrows villain's range only to mostly hands that have Austin beat? Earlier you were saying his CR was "pricing in" all the draws, which Austin wants and contradicts your argument. Moreover, I see people calling all the time with worse two pair on non raised multiway pots and tons of draws, and rarely does 89o run into the raise-able hands of 99,88, (which we block). Dude.....Austin is killing almost all Villain ranges here. He should be shipping as fast as possible!
    Also, for being a "math not feel" guy, can you go over your pot odds again? I don't think you're right.
    Your making a solid argument but applying it to a completely wrong example. There are many times you are right about not narrowing ranges to that which only has you beat, but never have I seen you be right in this type of situation.
  • benlong10benlong10 Red Chipper Posts: 11
    @Austin Answer me one thing which has me worried about using a CR on the flop. The issue is balance. If you only CR with two pair or better, don't you become very predictable? Kagey is right to say you are playing your hand face up, unless you are check raising with draws and top pair occasionally, which I have limited success doing in these multi-way pots. Why not just bet the flop with all these hands and be more unpredictable, unreadable, and thus harder to play against? We can always mega jam the turn with a big bet on a safe card.
    Betting the flop with big hands makes betting the flop with top pair more profitable as well, which adds 7.5% equity to our ability to call pre-flop with this hand (see above post for top pair flop numbers).
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 1,795 ✭✭✭✭
    benlong10 wrote: »
    I'm still trying to figure out how Kagey thought 43% was the pot odds. $110/$43 is 2.6:1. 100/3.6 is 28%.
    Yeah - I flubbed that up.
    it's 48 to call - to win 110
    2.3 :1 - 30% equity

    my beef with the check/raise isn't necessarily that we're beat - but that we're chasing out the very hands where our profits come from
    hands like T9, J9, T8, 78, 97.... etc. etc. etc
    should all be folding out to a check/raise - when they probably would have called a simple flop bet and folded the turn...

    so if our check/raise works - we win 24 flop dollars
    had we bet the flop for 20 and bet the turn (and they fold) - we would have won 40 flop dollars

    I'm looking at the long-term EV of this situation.
    I want guys with 4-8 outs to call my flop bets and chase
    I'm not looking to "take it down" just because I flopped "Bingo!"

    Long term - I believe a check/raise forces V to call (or shove) with the top part of his range - which puts us on the negative side of variance
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 1,795 ✭✭✭✭
    benlong10 wrote: »
    @kagey Why do you think CR the flop narrows villain's range only to mostly hands that have Austin beat? Earlier you were saying his CR was "pricing in" all the draws, which Austin wants and contradicts your argument. Moreover, I see people calling all the time with worse two pair on non raised multiway pots and tons of draws, and rarely does 89o run into the raise-able hands of 99,88, (which we block). Dude.....Austin is killing almost all Villain ranges here. He should be shipping as fast as possible!
    Also, for being a "math not feel" guy, can you go over your pot odds again? I don't think you're right.
    Your making a solid argument but applying it to a completely wrong example. There are many times you are right about not narrowing ranges to that which only has you beat, but never have I seen you be right in this type of situation.
    @benlong10 - as stated above - check/raising folds out hands with the least equity
    while flop betting encourages Vs to keep their range wide - which includes hands with a pair - in hopes to hit 2-pair or better

    in some cases - we could argue that a check/raise folds out TT, 77 and 66 which are hands that are currently dominated
    (I've even seen cases where 2-pairs like 95 and 85 would fold out because they figure only 76 would check/raise)

    so hands that have 2-6 outs fold out (due to check/raise)
    that leaves us up against hands that have 8-15 outs
    (while these aren't hands that currently have Hero beat - they are hands that equity-wise aren't making a mistake by calling)

    so my point was that check/raising pushes out the trash and leaves us up against the top part of V's range. All that should have 30% equity or more.
    therefore - why are we betting? (in this case, check/raising)

    This board is so wet - I hardly think Austin is killing the board.
    Any number of turns can turn Austin's "best hand" into dog shit.
    In a recent vid, Andrew Brokos talks about how KQ on a KQ5 board can go into our check/back range because we crush the board. That's true because very few hands can become top two on the turn. Here, any overcard to the 9 can create a bigger top two or str8.

    so I agree we should be betting for value. but betting for protection here is a mistake. because unless we shove - we can't price out the draws.

    by check/raising, we're essentially getting TWO bets in on the flop - with a vulnerable hand... against a range that's as likely (or more likely) to win the pot.
    why would we want to do that?

    Maybe your games play different and your Vs call check/raises with trash.
    If so - then I guess shoveling as much money in the pot is best.
    But then, wouldn't you want to check/raise to 75? 85? or 100?
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 975 ✭✭✭
    PF is fine. Flop I would lead almost always. As played sizing looks fine. Little smaller isn't much better or worse as we'll have about a psb ott regardless.
  • benlong10benlong10 Red Chipper Posts: 11
    @kagey ....sorry I mixed up the numbers on the CR call by villain. It's not $43 to call, it's $48. So you were right on the $110/$48 = 2.3:1. Then the percentage is 100/3.3 = 30%. Austin did this right.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 2,514 ✭✭✭✭
    Kagey be do NOT have
    benlong10 wrote: »
    @Austin Answer me one thing which has me worried about using a CR on the flop. The issue is balance. If you only CR with two pair or better, don't you become very predictable? Kagey is right to say you are playing your hand face up, unless you are check raising with draws and top pair occasionally, which I have limited success doing in these multi-way pots. Why not just bet the flop with all these hands and be more unpredictable, unreadable, and thus harder to play against? We can always mega jam the turn with a big bet on a safe card.
    Betting the flop with big hands makes betting the flop with top pair more profitable as well, which adds 7.5% equity to our ability to call pre-flop with this hand (see above post for top pair flop numbers).

    Flop: :9D: :8D: :5S:

    What does my c/r range look like on this board?

    Ad6d, Ad7d, Ad5d, 55, 88, 99, 98, (85 only some times mostly lead and mostly fold preflop), QdTd, JdTd, Td7d, Td6d, 7d5d,

    There are a ton of combo draws, sets, two pairs, that you can put pressure on villains hands with. It really depends on their bet sizing on the flop as to what line I take and my bet sizing for my check raise of course.

    I'll see if I can go more in depth and answer some of these responses in the morning.

    Appreciate all the comments and glad this turned out to be a "fun hand." As played they both folded.
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 975 ✭✭✭
    Balance is overrated against bad players. Theyre playing their cards and the board, hardly thinking much beyond that, and assigning unrealistic ranges often when they try. Leading is best over a CR imo not because it balances our range against bad players (though it's a side benefit), but because it is usually the best method for extracting value from passive weak opponents who are unlikely to bet when checked to. If it gets checked through otf we've lost out on a street of value.
  • Tada OzumiTada Ozumi Red Chipper Posts: 80
    edited June 2016
    I like leading it. I rather use this hand as near the top of our leading range rather than bottom of check raise...

    We weaken our leading range a LOT here by c/r and we will have a lot of 9-x that can benefit from keeping it in our leading range.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 544 ✭✭✭
    Can't think of one hand I would lead into 4 other players on this board
  • Tada OzumiTada Ozumi Red Chipper Posts: 80
    sullyooo wrote: »
    Can't think of one hand I would lead into 4 other players on this board

    Flush draws, sets, straights, A9, 89?
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 544 ✭✭✭
    I would CR all of it. I just think it's more profitable line to watch the action, hit hard , pressure some hands into making a larger mistake than just calling a cbet.
  • ChibberChibber Red Chipper Posts: 361 ✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    $1\$2\$2 (open is $5)
    4 limpers ($5)
    Pot is ($23)
    Hero bb 98o with $3 to complete. This is usually a fold for me but 7:1 can dictate a call.

    Flop ($26) 9d8d5s
    Hero checks
    Lag bets $12
    Btn calls $12
    Hero raises to $60
    ($200 effective).

    Wanted to make a large raise here and preferably just take it down. Setting up a shove on the turn for near pot. However, there are not a whole lot of good turn cards for me which is why i decided on the biggee (5x) raise.

    Should u complete bb?
    Should i lead flop?
    How is my sizing on xr?

    @Austin, you, by far, post the most HH on this site. I think that is great, but it may be more helpful if you included more information than just the bare bones. Effective stacks, specific reads, if you have them, V positions etc. etc.

    Having said that, here are my thoughts on this hand as posted. You already know that playing from the blinds is a long term losing proposition. Many players will look at the pre flop odds in the SB or BB and think just what you said; I am getting 7:1 so why not complete. Although you may not be giving up much in this spot, you aren't necessarily gaining all that much either. I'd like to know why you are completing here. Do you think you have a significant skill advantage over the limpers in the pot or is it simply because you are getting decent odds? Will you have good relative position over a specific player or is it: if I flop big, I can win a big pot? Maybe you did consider these variables, after all you said normally you'd fold.

    For me, to complete in this spot from the BB, even with the odds, I would want to consider these variables before putting the extra $3 in the pot. 98o is a trashy hand and won't flop much most of the time. So, in most instances - 95% - I am folding here. In rare cases, based on table dynamics, I'd raise to capitalize on the dead money in the pot.

    To lead the flop or check raise... You flopped well, but there is a potential straight, and possible flush, not to mention pair+combo draws etc. There are benefits to a check raise, but there is also the likelihood this flop can be checked through. If this happened, it would be terrible. Why? Because you allow other Vs a chance to realize their equity in the pot with a free card. There a number of cards that will either kill action, complete draws, or strengthen their equity.

    In this instance, I would rather lead the flop for a decent % for value. Think of the hands you can get value from... If called, then you can evaluate your turn options. The players who bet $12 and called $12, will certainly call $20 or $25 if you lead. Now the pot is $85 and you are better positioned to get stacks in on later streets or pick up an additional bet, which equals more value.

    While I think your check raise sizing is fine, I wonder, are you looking for folds in these spots or calls?

    Not sure how the hand played out or if that was even posted. I just wanted to provide some insight for you to consider.


  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    edited June 2016
    I see nothing wrong with the C/r sizing, given that the lag lead for a fairly small % of the pot and we already have one person that called behind. I might suggest 50/55 because it accomplishes pretty much the same thing as a squeeze, and makes our bluff squeezing not need to be as large as well. If the reason you are making a smaller cr sizing is just because villains are sizing their bets smaller, you are effectively letting them dictate the pot size and odds. If a villain throws a $5 chip in the middle, are we only cr to $15? I'd probably be closer to 7x/8x CR as opposed to the 3x.
    kagey wrote: »
    Flop: :9D: :8D: :5S:
    we've got 98os
    we've got no description or range on V1 & V2

    if we get called....
    what cards don't we like?
    any :XD: , any Q, any J, any T, any 7, any 6, any 5
    that's 9 + 3 +3 + 3 + 3 + 3 +2 = 26 cards?
    we might also not like any K - as K9 is possible
    or any A as A8 or A5 is possible.

    so basically more than 1/2 the deck makes it hard for us to continue...
    and we've built a pot oop - basically giving our Vs the perfect reverse implied odds (RIO) scenario!
    Which is actually why I'm a big fan of the larger sizing. We don't want to continue with 2 callers that are IP. Although we can classify our villains by a range, they in fact only have a hand. The turn can bring cards that help there range, but even the most monster of draws (j :diamond 10 :diamond ) are only helped by 15 cards and another 3% of runner runner. We don't need to avoid 26 cards on the turn, but Cr to this size we need to continue with some of the 'bad' cards on the turn. Js/10s Come to mind, as 10-7, q10, KQ aren't really going to be sticking around to pressure.

    Its definitely not all about taking down pots, but if we shut out opponents equity, it's not a bad thing, especially OOP
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 1,795 ✭✭✭✭
    Its definitely not all about taking down pots, but if we shut out opponents equity, it's not a bad thing, especially OOP
    this is one of those hands where we win a small pot - or lose a big one as played.

    Hero is counting on one or more Vs to bet the flop.
    Hero is counting on one or more Vs to fold to his c/raise.
    This is amateur playing at best.

    I think Austin said it best when he wrote:
    Austin wrote: »
    Kagey be do NOT have

    I'm not sure what that means - But I'm taking it as a very strong compliment. :-)
«1