Hand 13: Taking on Mr Aggro with big slick

Tim WilliamsTim Williams Red Chipper Posts: 23
Felt that this was easier after doing that hand 8 and some of the first section's Q/A. Really took my time on this one and thought it out, hand some interesting 'aha' moments.

I put this guy on a big range here, I figured that against the competition he'd honestly hit them with everything. I had him doing it even with 22 as pp's and bluffy sort of stuff like q6s.

STEP 1: PRE FLOP
I have AK
20.4% (18.6% with my blockers)
270 combos (228 combos w/ blocks)

AJ+, 22+, 67s+, 97s-Aqs (S gapprs) AXS, bluffs (k7s, q6s, q9s)
could be more even.

STEP 2: FLOP Ac Ts 4s
'I fire like 2/3rds or something and he calls'.
I figured just about everything he has in his range that's half live calls here, any kind of wonkish bluff is prob raising or folding, but most else I can see drifting.
I had

Aj+
TT+
Obv AA, TT, 44
Akh Ath A4h
A2sp+
q6sp, q9sp,j9sp,qjsp,97sp,98sp,78sp,67sp (FD)

So this narrowed him quite a bit, by about 2/3rds.
35% form
68/194 combos (idk what changed here flopzilla error or something)

STEP3: 9d falls, I bet and he shoves his stack in.
I figure he's doing this with everything except his big Aces at this point (other than AKh). Thank god for super aggro. I guess I had trouble thinking 'would he smooth with draws' but then he's a super aggro so maybe he's banking on terror or something, god knows.

(39.7% range, 27 combos)
44, TT, AA
All Axsp (9)
ATh
A4h
AKh
and of course the FD's : QJ, Q9, Q6, J9, 76, 87, 98, 79

STEP 4: DO WE GOT EQUITY?
I figured we did, and this is how I calculated it.

795 pot/270 call - 0.34 percent of the time I need to be right to call.
I got 27 combos, 13 of them are draws,. 48 percent of the time I'm right
So I got 14% EV.


Comments

  • BadFrog1BadFrog1 Red Chipper Posts: 136 ✭✭
    795 pot/270 call - 0.34 percent of the time I need to be right to call.
    I got 27 combos, 13 of them are draws,. 48 percent of the time I'm right
    So I got 14% EV.

    I think you got the right answer, but there are a couple issues here.

    1. The formula for required equity is (amount to call) / (pot size + amount to call). In this case 270/(270+775) = 25.8%.
    2. Your 48% was just 13/27, right? That's not going to be a good representation of your equity because it doesn't account for how often the opponent's draws come in and you lose or the times you suck out on their value range. You should really use software to calculate your real equity.
    3. I'm not sure how you got 14% EV, but EV is usually represented in dollars.

    I say this all not to criticize, but to help you properly analyze these situations.
  • BadFrog1BadFrog1 Red Chipper Posts: 136 ✭✭
    I'm actually having a really hard time finding a turn shoving range for the villain here. Just based on the "super aggro" label, I would expect them to raise all of their monsters and draws on the flop, leaving very little worth raising on the turn. T9 is the only thing that makes sense for value. What bluffs would you all give them here? How often does this kind of villain float flop with draws?
  • dmansendmansen Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
    edited June 2016
    Nit limps UTG (50bb)
    Newbie limps MP2 (63bb)
    Super aggro raises BTN 3bb (104bb)

    Range: AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K7o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J9o,T9o-T8o,98o,87o,76o,65o,54o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J5s,T9s-T6s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-74s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s,32s
    Combos: 596
    48.7% of preflop range

    Hero 3bets 10bb :Ad :Ks in SB (130bb)
    UTG folds, MP2 folds
    BTN calls 7bb

    Range: 99-22,AJo-ATo,KQo-KJo,QJo,ATs-A6s,A3s-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T8s,97s,86s,75s,65s,54s,43s,32s,[50]AQo,AQs-AJs,96s,85s,74s,64s,53s[/50],[25]JJ-TT,A5s-A4s,K8s-K2s,Q8s-Q2s,J8s-J5s,T9s,T7s-T6s,98s,87s,76s[/25]
    Combos: 225.25
    37.7% of opening range

    I discount trashy suited hands by 75% because those are more often raise or folds

    AK: 4bet
    JJ: 4bet 75%
    T9s: 4bet 25%

    Flop: :Ac :Ts :4s (21bb)
    Hero bets 14bb
    BTN calls

    AJo,A9s-A6s,A3s-A2s,KTs-K9s,QTs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T8s,[50]AQo,AQs-AJs[/50],[25]JJ,KQo-KJo,QJo,A5s,K8s-K6s,Q8s,T9s,T7s-T6s[/25]:a2c2a1c5a1c2a5b4a9b2a11b1a12c4a108:a15b1:b15a1:b3a1b3a1b3a5
    41.5 combos
    21.2% of flop range

    TT? Raise
    Ax? Call non NFDs
    Flush draws? Raise NFD, raise the lower ones, flat better suited Ks and Qs

    Turn: :9d (49bb)
    Hero bets 26bb
    BTN goes all in for 80bb total

    Range: A9s,K9s,Q9s,J9s,[25]KQo-KJo,QJo,K8s-K6s,Q8s,T9s[/25]:a5c1a12b4a9b2a11b1a12c1a111:a15b1:b15a1:b3a1b3a1b3a5
    11.25 combos
    27.1% of turn range

    AQ? Call
    T9? Shove
    Draws? Shove broadway draws, pair + flush draws

    He can’t have much value (only A9, T9).

    How much equity do we need? Call 270 to win 775
    Total pot after our call: 1045
    Our call is 25% of the final pot. Need 25% equity
    How much equity do we have? 75%
    Is this a profitable call? Yes
    EV of call? 1045 * 75% = 806.25

    Even when we discount him flatting draws on the flop, we have plenty of equity against his range.
  • AcesaladAcesalad Red Chipper Posts: 240 ✭✭
    PREFLOP: RANGE
    AA-22,AKo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s

    (%-form 28.5%)(# combos 349)

    Villain is raising with a fairly wide range here, on the button against 2 passive players.

    Facing 3Bet: RANGE

    JJ-22,AJo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,ATs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s

    (%-of previous range 88.9%)(# combos 313)

    Villain calls most of his range. Premium hands he would 4bet with.

    FLOP:

    :AC: :TS: :4S:

    RANGE

    JJ,AJo,A9o-A8o,KTo,QTo,JTo,T9o,A9s-A5s,A3s-A2s,KTs,QTs,JTs,T9s-T8s,QsJs,Qs9s,Js9s,9s8s,9s7s,8s7s,8s6s,7s6s,7s5s,6s5s

    (%-of previous range 36.2%)(# combos 96)

    Probably bets to protect strong hands such as sets and two pair and calls Ax Tx and flush draws.

    TURN:

    :9D:

    RANGE

    A9o,T9o,A9s,T9s,As8s,As7s,As6s,As5s,As3s,As2s,KsQs,KsJs,Ks9s,Ks8s,Ks7s,QsJs,Qs9s,Js9s,9s8s,9s7s,8s7s,8s6s,7s6s,7s5s,6s5s

    (%-of previous range 34.1%)(# combos 31)

    Probably shoving with sets, two pair and draws.

    Looks like we need 25.8% equity and we have 46.0% so it is a profitable call and the EV is +$210.70
  • Tim WilliamsTim Williams Red Chipper Posts: 23
    How do we calculate equity? Equilab?

    Thanks for the critique badfrog, will take note of everything you said there.

    Is there any way to do equity calculations without software so you can do it real time?
  • OutlierOutlier Red Chipper Posts: 158 ✭✭
    Nit limps UTG (50bb)
    Newbie limps MP2 (63bb)
    Super aggro raises BTN 3bb (104bb)

    VILLAIN PREFLOP RANGE: 18%, 219 combos

    g5y8f9c9wk1y.png

    I assumed a depolarized raising range here for villain, as he's attacking the weak players who've limped in. Based on previous posters, this range looks too tight, but I'll just go with it. Maybe it can form the tight extreme of his range.

    Hero 3bets 10bb :Ad :Ks in SB (130bb)
    UTG folds, MP2 folds
    BTN calls 7bb

    VILLAIN CALLING RANGE 69% of previous range, 151 combos

    dv7p4o0zh0uo.png

    Villain has been described as super aggro, but this is live $1/2, so I can't assume he's a good LAG, ie, he will be pretty unbalanced. At different points in the hand, I've tweaked his range to add a bit of "spazz" factor.
    Even though he's super aggro, I assume he's not completely blind and recognizes I have played super tight and am 3-betting him out of position. This is why I don't always have him 4-betting AK or JJ.
    AK: 4bet AKs, 50% of AKo
    JJ: 4bet 50%
    T9s: no

    Flop: :Ac :Ts :4s (21bb)
    Hero bets 14bb
    BTN calls

    VILLAIN FLOP CALLING RANGE: 39% of previous range, 50 combos
    uf5nxegwmem9.png

    TT? call
    Ax? Call non NFDs
    Flush draws? Raise

    The spazz factor here is villain indiscriminately raising all flush draws.

    Turn: :9d (49bb)
    Hero bets 26bb
    BTN goes all in for 80bb total

    VILLAIN TURN SHOVING RANGE: 22% of previous range, 11 combos
    haqa42p07fsq.png

    AQ? Call AQo, raise AQs
    T9? Shove
    Draws? shoves the straight draws he picks up

    The spazz factor here is that he just decides that AKo and AQs is too good to fold regardless of runout and he's just "getting it in."

    How much equity do we need? Call 270 to win 775
    Total pot after our call: 1045
    Our call is 25% of the final pot. Need 26% equity
    How much equity do we have? 50%
    Is this a profitable call? Yes
    EV of call? .50(1045)-.50(270)=+$388

    If I take out his shoving any AK or AQ, his combos drop to 7 and my equity drops to 38%:

    hgj4tfyji5lt.png

    I still need 26% equity, so it would still be a +EV call, to the tune of .38(1045)-.62(270) = +$230.
  • OutlierOutlier Red Chipper Posts: 158 ✭✭
    After looking at other posters who started with much wider villain preflop ranges than I did, it's interesting to notice we all come to the same conclusion that it's +EV call. My villain's tighter range gets "diluted" as the hand progresses because I assume he is unbalanced on the flop when he just calls--I don't think he just calls with any hands stronger than one pair.
  • akashraakashra Red Chipper Posts: 12 ✭✭
    Felt that this was easier after doing that hand 8 and some of the first section's Q/A. Really took my time on this one and thought it out, hand some interesting 'aha' moments.

    I put this guy on a big range here, I figured that against the competition he'd honestly hit them with everything. I had him doing it even with 22 as pp's and bluffy sort of stuff like q6s.

    STEP 1: PRE FLOP
    I have AK
    20.4% (18.6% with my blockers)
    270 combos (228 combos w/ blocks)

    Curious how you got so little combos including things like Q6s in his range, which I didn't have him quite this aggressive but somewhat close and I had 354 combos, also I'm not including things like AA, KK, AK (50%AQs), etc which it looks like you included below on the flop - you don't think he's ever reraising these preflop? Some very laggish I imagine will incorporate cold calls as they are usually playing a more 'tricky' style while others are often reraising these hands pre to maximize EV of their image. I had all pairs and all suited aces also...

    AJ+, 22+, 67s+, 97s-Aqs (S gapprs) AXS, bluffs (k7s, q6s, q9s)
    could be more even.

    STEP 2: FLOP Ac Ts 4s
    'I fire like 2/3rds or something and he calls'.
    I figured just about everything he has in his range that's half live calls here, any kind of wonkish bluff is prob raising or folding, but most else I can see drifting.
    I had

    Aj+
    TT+
    Obv AA, TT, 44
    Akh Ath A4h
    A2sp+
    q6sp, q9sp,j9sp,qjsp,97sp,98sp,78sp,67sp (FD)

    So this narrowed him quite a bit, by about 2/3rds.
    35% form
    68/194 combos (idk what changed here flopzilla error or something)

    STEP3: 9d falls, I bet and he shoves his stack in.
    I figure he's doing this with everything except his big Aces at this point (other than AKh). Thank god for super aggro. I guess I had trouble thinking 'would he smooth with draws' but then he's a super aggro so maybe he's banking on terror or something, god knows.

    (39.7% range, 27 combos)
    44, TT, AA
    All Axsp (9)
    ATh
    A4h
    AKh
    and of course the FD's : QJ, Q9, Q6, J9, 76, 87, 98, 79

    STEP 4: DO WE GOT EQUITY?
    I figured we did, and this is how I calculated it.

    795 pot/270 call - 0.34 percent of the time I need to be right to call.
    I got 27 combos, 13 of them are draws,. 48 percent of the time I'm right
    So I got 14% EV.

    Here's the EV formula for ya as per your equity -- 48%
    EV = (645 x .48) - (270 x.52)
    EV = 309.6 - 140.4
    EV = 169.2



  • bluedragonbluedragon Red Chipper Posts: 5
    EP1(nit) -7s limped: Range: 22-TT, ATo-AKo, KQo, A9s-AJs, KQs - KTs, 138 combs, 10.4%

    MP1(new) - limped: Range: 22-88, A2s-AJs, K9s-KQs, Q8s-QJs,J7s-JTs, T7s-T9s, 54s-T9s, 64s-T8s, A8o-AJo, KTo-KQo, QTo, QTo 346 combs, 26%

    But(super aggro): Raise 15: A2o-AA, K2o-AKs, Q8o-AQo, J8o-AJs, T8o-ATs, 98o-A9s, all connectors, all pairs, all suited connectors, 76o, - J7o, K2s-AKo, A2s-AKs 734 combos, 55% of hands.. This is how I've seen super Aggro's.. very loose compared to the rest of the posts...

    --- I don't think the button would limp with anything; he is on the button; he has position; he is super aggr. and he can't help himself.

    Hero raises to $50:
    Button Calls $35: I remove from his range the following hands because I believe he would 4 bet them, but since he called they have to go: TT+, AQo, AKs, AQs, AKs

    I also remove some of the weaker hands: K2o-K8o, 32o-54o Still remaining is 552 combos .... 42% of hands, a reduction of 182 hands; 75% of previous hands.

    FLOP: Ac Ts 4s

    Since he puts me on a strong hand, I think he puts Hero on a hand and would call this flop and see what happens on the turn. Since we haven't played many hands in a couple hours, he has to see us as very tight, almost nitty, where we could have AA, AK, AQ, etc...

    Yes, he calls TT, Ax, and all Flush Draws; That said, I don't have TT in his range because I think he would have 4 bet us with TT to see where he was.

    Hero Bets $70.
    Villian Calls: Villian Calling Range: All spades, 22-99, T9o-KQo, T8o, Quo, KJo, Q9o, KTo, KJo, A2-AJo 321 combs, 24% of hands a reduction of 231 hands; a reduction of 58% of previous range.

    TURN: 9d

    Hero Bets 130, Villian goes all in for $400; $270 for Hero to call.

    Would he shove with AQ: yes, I think so.
    T9 (two pair) yes, I think so
    Draws: yes, I think so.

    Villian Shove Range: Pair + FD; sets, 2 pair ie. (T9, A9, A4s), straight draw + FD; straight draw; 176 combos, 13% of hands; 77% of previous range.

    Equity: 66% per poker cruncher calculating AK vs. range.
    What equity do I need: 270 to call to win 775; (not including the 270 cause I don't have to put it in.) 2.8-1 or 34% needed to call.

    Profitable call: yes

    EV: (.66*775)-(.34*270)
    503-92
    +EV: $411.20

    Please correct my math and or any other assumptions or items you think I've done incorrectly. Comments appreciated.

  • NuttedNutterNuttedNutter Red Chipper Posts: 44
    HAND#13

    I think w/ this specific dynamic Btn super aggro is more likely to raise hands like 44 and 87s. Combine w/ position I think vill is competent and exploiting the passive limpers for as long as he can get away w/ it.

    VILLAIN RANGE: AA-22,AKo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,T9o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K5s,QJs-Q7s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T6s,98s-96s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s,32s

    %FORM: 28.8%
    COMBOS#: 353

    Would BTN Super Aggro 4bet w/

    AK? Yes. Let's say based on description being that I've been uber tight card dead for quite a bit I'd say he'd 4bet AK half the time.

    JJ? Yes. Same let's say half the time given dynamic

    T9s? No. I think he would certainly 3bet it, however I think that he would think that it is a bit too wide to 4bet in this spot.

    VILLAIN RANGE: TT-22,AJo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,T9o,AJs-A2s,KQs-K5s,QJs-Q7s,JTs-J7s,T8s-T6s,98s-96s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s,32s,[0]T9s[/0],[50]AA-JJ,AKo-AQo,AKs-AQs[/50]

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 26.9%
    COMBOS#: 329.5

    :Ac :Ts :4s

    Would BTN Super Aggro just call $70 bet w/..

    TT? No. I think villain would raise TT here because I'd think that he would know that this flop hits a lot of TP Aces, I could have ATs, AJ-AK, and some Axs and fd+pair draws for example. So raises for value/equity protection

    AX? I think w/ hands like AJ-AK he raises w/ similar logic as a set of TT. I think w/ hands like A2s-A3s, A5s-A9s he calls in position to see how things develop on turn considering that he might be outkicked. If however he's got a AX+draw hand like As9s I think he raises that part of his range since he's described as super aggro.

    Flush Draws? I think he raises most all his flush draws.

    VILLAIN RANGE: AA,TT,44,AKo-A9o,AKs-A2s,QsJs,Qs9s,Qs8s,Qs7s,Js9s,Js8s,Js7s,9s8s,9s7s,9s6s,8s7s,8s6s,7s6s,7s5s,6s5s,5s3s,3s2s

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 25.5%
    COMBOS#: 72.5

    T: :9d

    Does BTN jam w/...

    AQ? Yes. I think that he thinks that his AQ is good and that I'm drawing to a flush or that I have a weaker AX? I briefly thought w/ btn super aggro being ip would consider just calling to see a river after all I could have AA, TT, AK, AT, A9.. but w/ the stacks SPR at this point he probably figures he'd be almost ai by river anyways and doesn't plan on folding so yeah I think AQ gets it in.

    T9? Yes. I think BTN super aggro at a live $1/2 cash game is likely thinking TPTK+ is the nuts so T9 he jams all day.

    Draws? Yes. W/ stacks shrinking up and the 9d turn not improving his fd's he likely concludes that shoving ai w/ a fd, a few oesds QJs, J8s, 87s, gutshots 32s,53s,76s,86s,Q8s,J7s is the only way to win at this point if we fold or he hits his draw. He's BTN Super Aggro so it's expected that he'll live up to his name.

    VILLAIN RANGE: AA,TT,44,AKo-A9o,AKs-A2s,QsJs,Qs9s,Qs8s,Qs7s,Js9s,Js8s,Js7s,9s8s,9s7s,9s6s,8s7s,8s6s,7s6s,7s5s,6s5s,5s3s,3s2s

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 100%
    COMBOS#: 70.5

    $270 more to call...

    Equity required? 34.8%
    Current equity? 58.9%
    Profitable call? Yes.
    EV of call= 186.475









  • AcesaladAcesalad Red Chipper Posts: 240 ✭✭
    edited February 2017
    When building this range consider the hands the button would limp behind the other limpers with.
    Are they more likely to limp behind with hands like 44 and 87s?
    Or are they going to shift more hands into their raising range? Shift more hands into their raising range
    %-Form 29.6% #Combos 392
    Villain's Range:
    AA-77,AKo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o-T8o,98o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s
    The button isolates to $15, you 3bet to $50, and the limpers fold
    You 3bet to $50 and the button calls
    When building this range, it helps to think about what they would 4bet with. Would they 4bet with:
    AK? Yes
    JJ? No
    A9s? No
    VILLAIN'S RANGE
    %-FORM 19.3% #Combos 256
    QQ-77,AQo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AQs-A2s,KQs-K8s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s,76s
    There are 2 players to a $105 flop
    Flop:
    :AC: :TS: :4S:
    You bet $70 and the button calls
    Think about the hands the button would call with preflop. Would they just call your $70 bet with:
    TT? They would Re-Raise
    Ax? Call Mostly
    Flush Draws? Call
    VILLAIN'S RANGE
    % of Previous Range 28.8% #Combos38
    AQo-AJo,AQs-AJs,A9s-A5s,A3s-A2s,QsJs,Qs9s,Qs8s,Js9s,Js8s,9s8s,8s7s,7s6s
    There are 2 players to a $245 turn
    Turn:
    :9D:
    You bet $130 and the button goes all-in for $400 total
    Given their line up to this point, do you think the button would go all-in with:
    AQ? Yes
    T9? Yes
    Draws? No
    VILLAIN'S RANGE
    % of Previous Range 44.7% #Combos 17
    AsQs,AsJs,As9s,As8s,As7s,As6s,As5s,As3s,As2s,QsJs,Qs9s,Qs8s,Js9s,Js8s,9s8s,8s7s,7s6s
    You are facing an all-in decision on the turn
    You need to call $270 more to call the button’s all-in.
    Should you make this call?
    Let’s work it out together:
    How much equtity do you need? 25.8%
    How much equtity do you have? 80.4%
    Is this a profitable call? Yes
    BONUS: What's the EV of the call? $570.18
  • adamjmiladamjmil Red Chipper Posts: 1
    I won't bother posting my ranges since there's plenty of that above but here's my takeaways:

    I had him calling pre with 452 combos, probably because I gave him every Ax. combo.
    Because hero image is very tight, I gave V a 4-bet range of only QQ+

    Major eye opener: Ks and Ts play VERY key roles as blockers, it takes all Kxss out of his range and also blocks QTss, JTss and T9ss The only broadway combo draw left is QJss.

    So his flush draw range is dominated by Axss, which I had him raising on the flop (this is an amazing flop for that range and you don't even have to be a LAG to raise it). So, his flop call is VERY limiting. A few smaller flush draws possibly including QJss. Aces that you dominate. JJ.

    He raises the flop with AT, A4, TT, and 44.

    I don't think he sticks around with a naked T after you 3-bet and bet he flop. That takes all other T9 out of his range.

    So what does he have that's ahead of us on the turn? A9. That's it. He has equity with QJss and 78ss or even 67ss, but obviously we're ahead and calling. He could also be making a move with AQ or AJ or some other Ax nonsense that we crush.

    We only need >25.8% equity to call and we're ahead of almost his entire range. Easy call.

    The post above gives us about 80% equity even if he *does* merely call the flop with his draws.

    TL;DR: Blockers and limiting flop call on a wet board make us overwhelming favorites, and on top of that we only need 25.8% equity to call anyway. Easy call.
  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 455 ✭✭✭
    Nit limps UTG (50bb)
    Newbie limps MP2 (63bb)
    Super aggro raises BTN 3bb (104bb)

    38.7/35.9% of preflop range Combos: 474/439.6
    Range: AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q7s,Q5s-Q4s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-74s,65s-63s,54s-53s,43s-42s,32s

    JJ-22,AJo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AJs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q7s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-74s,65s-63s,54s-53s,43s-42s,32s,[55]AQo,AQs[/55]

    Preflop: In position against fit or fold tight players and with 2 tight players in the blinds.. V will be very loose. The only thing in check behind range is super trash. Even a Super Aggro doesn't like to 4Bet a very tight player which is the perception unless willing to go all in, 4bets qq-AA AK and sometimes AQ Folds very little

    Flop: :Ac :Ts :4s (21bb)
    Hero bets 14bb
    BTN calls

    46.6% of flop range 204.85 combos
    JJ-22,AQo-A2o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,T9o,AQs-A2s,KQs-KTs,K4s,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s-T7s,74s,64s,54s-53s,43s-42s,32s,Kc9c,Kc8c,Kc7c,Kc6c,Kc5c,Kc3c,Kc2c,Qc9c,Qs9s,Qc8c,Qs8s,Qc7c,Qs7s,Jc9c,Js9s,Jc8c,Js8s,9c8c,9s8s,9c7c,9s7s,9c6c,9s6s,8c7c,8s7s,8c6c,8s6s,8c5c,8s5s,7c6c,7s6s,7c5c,7s5s,6c5c,6s5s,6c3c,6s3s

    Flop" Calls with Ax sets)tp trap) and call with non Ax flush draws and pocket pairs... Raises A high flush draws and two pair

    Turn: :9d (49bb)
    Hero bets 26bb
    BTN goes all in for 80bb total
    23.8% of turn range 48.7 combos
    Range: TT-99,44,AQo-AJo,A9o,T9o,Th9h,Tc9c,Td9d,Ts9s,AhQh,AhJh,Ah9h,QsJs,Qs9s,Qs8s,Qs7s,Js9s,Js8s,9s8s,9s7s,9s6s,8s7s,8s6s,8s5s,7s6s,7s5s,6s5s,6s3s,5s3s,3s2s

    Turn: The slightly more than half pot bet by hero seems timid if not weak. Super Aggro will pounce on this... Better bet size is 3/4 pot. Also if V just calls less than pot sized bet on river. If Villain is not folding the river than his best line is to shove and can easily balance with bluffs. Likely doesn't shove straight draws though as they can get paid when hit where as a flush may not get paid The tough decision is about weak Ax,,, they probably just call What does he do with Aj and JJ?

    Need 25.8% Equity
    Have 47% Equity
    Profitable Call
    EV (52.77% x 775)+(47.23% x -270)= 408.97- 127.52 =+281.45
  • Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
    Hand 13
    Preflop: The super agro BU raises 7.5 BB after seeing two limps from a Nit and a Newbie. The BU would have raised with either 44 or 87s even after seeing the Nit enter the pot from UTG. BU is on a range of 23% (283 combos) AA-22,AKo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,T9o,AKs-A8s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s. I squeeze the limpers with a 3B to $50 and they fold, while the BU calls. So its heads up with Ms. agro and I’m OOP. My bet is big and so I don’t think the BU would 4B with anything less than queens, not JJ, not AK nor T9s. I remove QQ,KK,AA from her range. Her range is now 22% (271 combos) JJ-22,AKo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,T9o,AKs-A8s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s.
    Flop :Ac :Ts 4s
    BU calls my $70 bet and her range is 24% of previous (225 combos) TT,44,AKo-A9o,AKs-A8s,QsJs,Qs9s,Js9s,9s8s,9s7s,8s7s,8s6s,7s6s,7s5s,6s5s. She is continuing with sets, two pairs, top pair, fd, fd with a pair and gut shot fd. Her range is best 66% of the time so her lack of a 3B pf says she is hanging in just in hopes of a good draw saving the day. She would just call with TT, Ax and fd.
    Turn :9d
    BU goes all in after I bet $130. She would go all in with AQ especially if in spades, but not T9 even if both were spades (I’ve already removed T9 from her range anyway) and she would not go all in on a draw. Her range is 42% of previous (42 combos) TT,44,AKo-A9o,AKs-A8s.
    I have 49% equity and I need 40% for a +EV $100).
    River :NA
  • Naïm TerracheNaïm Terrache Red Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
    Hand 13

    Preflop Range : JJ-66,AQo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AQs-A8s,A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-QTs,JTs

    %Form 14.8 / Combos 196

    When building this range, it helps to think about what they would 4bet with. Would they 4bet with:
    AK? Yes
    JJ? Normally probably yes, but due to my image/card dead maybe not.
    T9s? No

    Flop Range : AQo-AJo,KTo,QTo,JTo,AQs-AJs,A9s-A8s,A2s,KTs,QTs,JTs,QsJs

    %Form 40.9 / Combos 56

    Would they just call your $70 bet with:
    TT? No
    AX? Yes
    Flush Draws? Yes

    Turn Range : AQo,AQs,A9s,AsJs,As8s,As2s,QsJs

    Given their line up to this point, do you think the button would go all-in with:
    AQ? Yes
    T9? Not in the range
    Draws? No. He would do this on the flop I think

    All in Range : AQo,AQs-AJs,A9s,As8s,As2s,QsJs

    How much equity do you need? 34%
    How much equity do you have? 74%
    Is this a profitable call? Yes
    BONUS: What’s the EV of a call? (775*0.75)-(775*0.25) = 387.5

    Let me know your thoughts guys!
  • Shawn JShawn J Red Chipper Posts: 63 ✭✭
    $1/$2. EP1 and MP1 have been very weak/passive so far. The button has been the exact opposite - raising a lot of hands, 3betting quite a bit, and giving a lot of action postflop. You have been card dead for the last two hours.

    9 handed. EP1 Nit limps, folds to MP1 Newbie whom limps, folds to BTN Super Aggro whom raises to $15.
    286znu8iureg.png
    He's raising any Pocket Pair and Suited Connector

    We're in the SB with AdKs and 3Bet to $50, BB folds, BTN calls.
    I assume his calling ranging is as follows. I think He'll 4Bet with AK, and just call with JJ and T9s:
    48efm4ixpaqj.png

    FLOP $105
    0sd31wmjz8fn.png

    We Bet $70 and BTN calls. I assume he would raise any set, any Ax and any Flush draw. I also assume he would fold any pocket pair below a Ten.

    TURN Pot $245
    3dr11uaspo52.png

    We bet $130 and the BTN goes all-in for $400 Total

    I assume he'd go all-in with AQ but since he didn't reraise us on the flop, those combos are removed. He could shove with T9 two pair and OESD. He didn't raise us on the flop with his spade flush draws and his backdoor clubs flush draws didn't come in.

    Equity we need: $270/245+130+400+400 = 270/1045 = 25%
    Equity we have: 76%
    Yes, this is a profitable call
    (%W x $W) - (%L x $L) = EV
    (.76 x $775) - (.24 x $270)
    589 - 65
    $524 = +EV
  • Troy HTroy H Red Chipper Posts: 36 ✭✭
    Aggro guy who has position on two nitty players on the table. I believe he is isolating with a wide range here preflop including any Ace.

    Villains Range Preflop: 28% 345 combos
    661w3sxyrkn4.png

    We 3b and Villain calls. Even though he is laggy, I doubt he 4bets with JJ, AK, or T9s becuase he realizes that we are "finally waking up with a hand"..He most likely calls with almost everything though going post-flop due to his looseness/wanting to bust a player who "only plays aces".


    FLOP: :Ac :Ts :4s
    We bet 70 into 105 and V calls. V is going to raise all 2p+ and draws on this flop. That's 19 combos of sets and 17 combos of flush draws.

    Villain's flop calling range: 48% of previous range and 132 combos
    68yufbqxqkc0.png

    TURN: :9d
    We bet $130 and he raises $400. For V to raise me with AQ would make him very spewy, and that line wouldn't really make sense to me unless I've seen it before. I'll include it, as I've seen crazier in the past. I do believe he raises T9 for a turned 2p also. I'll also say that V raises his Ace high flush draws that have a lower kicker, as well as the turned A9 for 2p.


    Villain's turn raising range: 23% of previous range and 29 combos.
    l2wcpeyod2d7.png


    How much equity do we need? There is 775 in the middle and it'll cost 270 to call. I am getting a little less than 3-1 so I need to be good ~ 26% of the time.

    What is our equity vs his hand? 57%

    Is this a profitable call? Yes.

    What is the EV of this call?

    (.57*915) - (.43*270) = 521 - 116 = $405 Expected value when we make this call.

    Not sure if I did the EV calc right. I will check other's answers above! Jeez this thread is old lol hopefully people are still doing these things.

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