Hand 12

BadFrog1BadFrog1 Red Chipper Posts: 136 ✭✭
PREFLOP: RANGE (8.75%)(116 combos)

5c3kohv5zyfa.png

I decided to go linear here for a couple reasons:
  1. 3bet bluffs are less effective, particularly OOP, when stacks are deep
  2. Our 5x open makes a wide flatting range less desirable for BB both because they're not getting great odds on a call and because the large sizing makes it more likely that we have a strong range. Lack of a wide flatting range reduces the desirability of polar 3bet range.

:As :Qh :3s

FLOP: RANGE (47% of previous range )
(32 combos -- after card removal)

gbirl19w9qks.png

This flop is great for the preflop range I assigned. The worst hands BB has are 6 combos of gutshots, which they're cbetting along with their many combos of top pair, two pair, and sets. This leaves their checking range a little weak, but it does have many hands that could call at least two streets.

:7c

TURN: RANGE (94%-of previous range)
(30 combos)

kf5b9ibdvku8.png

This turn doesn't change anything in either player's ranges. I have BB continuing to bet everything except their worst top pair combo.

I wouldn't read anything into the bet sizing. Our read on this player is that they're a "solid TAG", so I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they're using the same bet size with their full range.

:9d

RIVER: RANGE (40%-of previous range)
(12 combos)

i7euf61kdk4e.png

The river is another total blank. I have them checking back their worst top pair and their bluffs.

Does she check any hands that crush you? No
Can she check/call worse hands No
What happens if you bet $300? She'll fold her 6 combos that we're ahead of and call her 6 combos that tie us. This is 0EV.
What happens if you bet $500? She'll fold her 6 combos that we're ahead of and might fold her ties sometime.
FINAL ANSWER: CHECK OR BET Check

Comments

  • AcesaladAcesalad Red Chipper Posts: 240 ✭✭
    PREFLOP: RANGE
    AA-99,AKo-AQo,KQo,AKs-AQs,KQs
    (%-form 6.3%)(# combos 84)
    I am assigning basically a premium range here because I don't see the solid TAG is bluffing much out of position here.

    :As :Qh :3S:

    FLOP: RANGE
    AA-QQ,AKo-AQo,KQo,AKs-AQs,KQs
    (%-of previous range 70.6%)(# combos 36)
    This flop hits her range hard and I think she is making a half pot bet with everything that has a piece of this flop and flush draws.

    :7C:

    TURN: RANGE
    KK,KQo,KQs
    (%-of previous range 50.0%)(# combos 18)
    This is a brick but she bets half pot again. I think with a strong hand such as TPTK, two pair or a set she would be bigger for value and discourage flush and straight draws.

    :9D:

    RIVER: RANGE
    KK,KQo,KQs
    (%-of previous range 100.0%)(# combos 18)
    Since this is essentially a brick and my assumption is she bet half pot on the turn with all her relatively weak hands, I think she checks them all too on the river hoping to see a showdown.
  • OutlierOutlier Red Chipper Posts: 158 ✭✭
    PREFLOP: RANGE (13%)(156 combos)
    p256te49xu0l.png

    Previous posters make a strong case for villain 3-betting a tight range, but I widened her range just to see how it would work itself out (and to explore what SplitSuit said in the hand description about ranges getting wide in resteal situations). I don't think our open to 3x or 5x changes much at this stack depth; plus, I assume $25 is our standard open.

    Ignore the filter on AK and KJo at this point--they didn't come into play until later in the hand.

    :As :Qh :3s

    FLOP RANGE: 63%, 75 combos
    eklypc10x59n.png

    She is continuing with most of her range. I think she would assume us still to have a pretty wide range, so she thinks she can get value from worse. She's also betting some hands like 77-99 once for equity protection, although that may be a suspect inference. I also had her continuing with only the KJo combos with the Kh in them.

    :7c

    TURN RANGE (42%-of previous range) (30 combos)

    gjw8rvtn73m6.png

    The half-pot bet twice does seem a bit weak to me. I gave her the benefit of the doubt and left most of her strong hands in there, though. I think the half-pot bets might indicate that she also has flush draw hands with which she's trying to give herself a price.

    :9d

    RIVER: RANGE (80%-of previous range)
    (12 combos)

    rt1402m2ixep.png

    Does she check any hands that crush you? No*
    Can she check/call worse hands? Yes
    What happens if you bet $300? She will call with her entire range to bluff catch vs busted draws.
    What happens if you bet $500? She will call with all Q-X and A-X hands, but fold the 7-X and 9-X hands.
    FINAL ANSWER: CHECK OR BET: Bet $500

    My river bet must be good better than 50% of the time when called for it to be profitable (I am laying myself 1:1 odds on the river bet, since I do have the option of just checking back).

    My hand is 81% vs her entire range with which I had her checking the river. Betting $300 yields a profit of .8*300 = +$243.

    If I take out her weakest pairs of 7-X and 9-X and put myself only up against single Q-X and A-X hands, I am 75%. Betting $500 yields .75*500 =+$375, more +EV than betting $300.

    *Villain could do a great job protecting her river check range: if she checks the AK combos without the Ks (making it more likely I have Ks-Xs busted flush draws), my river equity drops to 59%, making it tough for me to bet at all.

    o0dy8j0rv7z3.png
  • OutlierOutlier Red Chipper Posts: 158 ✭✭
    Kudos to @BadFrog1 for doing screenshots of the ranges--I think this makes it much easier to read.
  • Briax24Briax24 Red Chipper Posts: 44 ✭✭
    Solid TAG Villains re-steal range: AA-88,AKo-ATo,KQo,AKs-ATs,A5s-A2s,KQs,87s,76s
    (% of form: 11%) (Combos:146)
    I think she is going to 3-bet with AJ, KQ, and 99. I think a Solid TAG has a wider three betting range than most players but not like 17-20% more like 8-12%. This Villain should take the opportunity to bluff most of her boards that have high equity or backdoor potential. Hence the AG part of TAG.

    :As :Qh :3s

    Solid TAG Flop Betting Range: AA,QQ,AKo-ATo,AKs-ATs,A5s-A2s,KsQs,8s7s,7s6s
    (% of previous range: 49.4%) (Combos: 43)
    She is likely to bet all of her top pair. She might be one and done with the weaker kickers, but I think if she wants to put money in the pot at all with those hands she would think “the earlier the better” so as not to give free cards to flush draws and broadway.
    I think she bets all of her flush draws as well. This isn’t a big part of the range I assigned her because she is Ace heavy pre-flop. Really only KQss, 87ss-76ss. Holding the Ace of Hearts is nice here because she will not hold many backdoor heart bluffs.
    I think she bets all two pair and better, some Villains may give a free card with AA or AQ but as a Solid Tag she should have enough of a bluffing range to get called a bit light and if she wants to play a big pot with these stacks it’s imperative she get some chips in on the flop.

    :7c

    Solid TAG Half Pot Turn Bet: AA(1/2),QQ(1/2),AKo-AJo,AKs-AJs,A3s,KsQs,8s7s,7s6s (1/2 of two pair holdings)
    (% of previous range: 53.5%) (Combos: 23)
    I think she bets with some of her top pair now. She may go for a pot controlling line with like AT or A5-A2. Maybe even AJ sometimes. From her perspective it may be tough to get three streets and still be good with these kind of hands.
    The only Qx she still has in my estimation is KQss which she very well could bet on the turn.
    I think her bluffs here are KQss and 87-76ss. The latter hands have picked up a little more equity to go with their flush potential and it may be valuable to fold out KK or some Qx that Villain may hold. Besides you gotta have some bluffs and these are really the only ones she can choose from.
    The half pot sizing may fork her range a bit. If it does, I think the sets and two pair can be removed from her range. I’m going to give her half of them and continue.

    :9d

    Solid TAG River Check: AJo,AJs,KsQs,8s7s,7s6s
    (% of previous range: 39.1%) (Combos:9)
    Does she check any hands that crush you: No, maybe some AK
    Can she check call worse hands: Maybe KQ, There is some chance she got here with a weaker Ace than I am giving her credit for. If she bet half pot on the turn with AT or worse then she could be calling. I think she folds some of this stuff.
    What happens if you bet 300: I think she folds her draws and calls with the AJ I left in her range possibly some worse.
    What happens if you bet 500: She may start to fold AJ and other Aces that she arrived here with.

    Check or Bet: I think we should bet based on the range I have allotted her. This is an opportunity to blow her off of our exact hand and I think getting value owned here is balanced by the times she gets to this spot with hands that we beat like AT. In fact I may be shrinking her turn range too much and she may have several hands we can beat. If she folds a chop, fantastic, so I think betting on the bigger side seems reasonable. It’s weird to turn AJ into a bluff because it has some good showdown value but I don’t expect a check raise here really ever. It’s a combination a value bet and bluff I think.

    @BadFrog1 If you think she is folding chops and better to the $500 bet then isn't it prudent to bet?


  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,921 ✭✭✭✭
    I agree with the ranges previously posted (especially from @Outlier ), so I won't put my down.

    I've nonetheless an important question: what if we face a check-raise on the river? In other words, is it correct to analyze a "very solid TAG" playing so straightforwardly ???
    Esp. if our image is LAG/LAGish/aggrotard, she could try to induce us to bluff with a weak(er) hand (like a busted flushdraw, QX or marginal A).
  • bluedragonbluedragon Red Chipper Posts: 5
    I play this very similar to BadFrog, but with a wider Ax Range; what do you all think.

    Since we look like a button steal, I don't think she gives us credit for a hand and has a wider opening 3Bet range.

    99+, A5s+, AJ+, KTs+, KQo, 124ish combos, (no card removal, I have a mac, pokercruncher)

    I do not think she would bluff very often; but if she did, this would be a good spot.

    Flop :As :Qh :3s

    Bets $75 into 150

    TP: Yes,
    FD: Yes
    2Pair: Yes

    Perhaps she would bet more; but with I don't put to much into the CB bet size here.

    I do not change her range, I think she would bet 100% of her range against us here since we are on the button, her fear of our hand is not big at this point.

    Range 124 combos ; same as above. 100% of previous range.

    Turn: :7c

    She Bets $150 into $300;

    Her Bet size and the fact that we called the flop makes me think she has a medium strength hand that she thinks is ahead and wants to get to showdown; I think this because the narration says she has played aggressively in the past, vs. if she was stronger she would play stronger.

    Would she bet
    TP: Yes
    QX: Yes
    Bluffs: Yes if she thinks we floated to be ornery.

    Range: A5s-AKs, KJ, KQ, AA-99 98 Combos All strong...

    River :9d

    Check AA? No, she would have bet, I am not afraid of AA because of the two exposed; her aggressive past.

    Check AK? Yes, She could have AK and is afraid we have AQ.
    Check 2Pair? NO. I think she would bet 2 pair, staying aggressive to get $ in the pot; probably betting $300.

    Range: KK, KQ, KJ, A5s-AJs, 99-JJ 96 combos

    Hands she checks that crushes: AK, maybe...
    Hands she would check/call with that are worse: A5-AT,
    Bet $300: I think she calls unless she was on pure straight or flush draw; then she folds
    Bet $500: I think she folds entire range remaining
    Final Answer: I bet $300; I want a call and hope she has A with bad kicker or QK

    $300 Bet: Equity: 30%
    Equity I have: 76%
    EV: (.76*600)-(.24*300) = +$380

    thoughts?
  • NuttedNutterNuttedNutter Red Chipper Posts: 44
    HAND #12

    Player described would indicate to me that she's probably not bluffing that often and has been playing a straightforward game. There's nothing really indicating that she's bluffing often or restealing very wide in this spot, however if we just assume she's going for a resteal then I'd say she's more likely to 3bet AJ, KQ, 99 oop. I'd say she is 3betting pretty snug here leaning towards more value though and not that many junk hands in her resteal range...

    RANGE: AA-77,AKo-ATo,KQo-KJo,QJo,AKs-A9s,KQs-KTs,QJs,JTs,T9s

    %FORM: 13.3%
    COMBOS#: 176

    :As :Qh :3s

    BB bets flop w/...

    TP? Yes. AT+, A9s-AJs, AKs

    Flush Draws? Yes. I'd say she's capable of semi-bluffing w/ some hands like Ts9s-JsTs, KsTs-KsJs, which give additional equity w/ a gutshot and also w/ her other pair+fd hands like QsJs-KsQs.

    Two pair or better? Yes. Those are powerful value hands in her range worth 3 streets and being that there are a few ways I could draw to a straight or flush w/ some hands in my range and also call w/ a TP hand like I have like AJs and being that she's oop I don't think she would consider a C-R in this spot or would slowplay w/ those hands.

    RANGE: AA,QQ,AKo-ATo,AKs-A9s,KsQs,KsJs,KsTs,QsJs,JsTs,Ts9s

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 42.3%
    COMBOS#: 60

    T: :7c

    Would she bet 1.5x pot 2x w/...

    TP? No I think she would bet closer to pot something like 3/4... OR that she's got a hand like A9s, ATo/s that's weary of a WAWB situation and is afraid I've got her outkicked or perhaps she c-c w/ those hands, but AJ, AK would bet more I think.

    Qx? Yes I think here w/ hands like QJs-KQs she would more likely bet a size like 1.5x and also w/ specifically QsJs-KsQs she has the 2nd and nut flush draws.

    Bluffs? Yes. The only bluffs in her range left that make sense are the flush draw hands Ts9s-JsTs, KsTs-KsJs, which give additional equity w/ a gutshot and also w/ her other pair+fd hands like QsJs-KsQs.

    RANGE: AA,QQ,AKo-ATo,AKs-A9s,KsQs,KsJs,KsTs,QsJs,JsTs,Ts9s

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 100%
    COMBOS#: 60

    R: :9d

    Would BB x river w/..

    AA? No. Would bet.
    AK? No. Would bet.
    2pair? No. Would bet.

    RANGE: AA,QQ,AKo-ATo,AKs-A9s
    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 89.8%
    COMBOS#: 53

    Does she x any hands that crush you? No. W/ 2pair+ I don't believe she would risk me checking-behind a hand like I have or better.

    Can she ch-call worse hands? Maybe w/ hands like AT-AJ, I think she would still bet AK here though.

    What happens if I bet $300? If I bet 1.5x pot then she would need to fold 33% of the time. However, w/ a hand like AJ she has exactly 33% to call the bet and we would tie about 18% of the time.

    What happens if you bet $500? If I bet $500 she would need a higher amount of equity closer to 83% and she only has 33% w/ the best hand she could c-c w/ which is AJ. So we would need her to fold like 47ish% of the time which I think she would. I could have a hand like AK here.

    FINAL ANSWER: Bet! Get her off a chop. Checking accomplishes nothing but tying w/ her. Turning our hand into a bluff here is a better option.

    Cool exercise. Logic check anyone? Ty.








  • mbehr1983mbehr1983 Red Chipper Posts: 635 ✭✭✭
    I went on the tighter and more straight forward side but you all make some good points
    Pre flop I didnt go wide but maybe I should of
    AA-TT,AKo-AQo,AKs-AQs
    4%
    combos 48
    :As :Qh :3s
    flop range AA-QQ,AKo-AQo,AKs-AQs
    % 50
    combos 24
    Top pair yes
    Flush draws she didnt have any in the range I assigned
    2P+ yes
    Turn :7c
    Turn AA,QQ,AKo-AQo,AKs-AQs it dropped KK but I think she could be pot contolling with those
    % 75
    combos18
    TP yes
    Qx yes
    Bluffs she doesnt have many left in her range I assigned
    River :9d
    AA,QQ,AKo-AQo,AKs-AQs
    100%
    18 combos
    AA no check
    AK no check
    2pair no check
    Does she check hands that beat you no
    Can she check call worse no
    Bet 300 I think she calls as I have assigned her a very A heavy range
    Bet 500 same as above I think she just goes for 3 streets with all hands a ranged her on
    Check or bet? I have showdown value here so just going to check back here and see what she is up to
    I like the arguments about betting but I choose not to


  • AcesaladAcesalad Red Chipper Posts: 240 ✭✭
    Ranges can get very wide in resteal situations. When building her resteal range ask yourself if she is more likely to call or 3bet with hands like AJ, KQ, and 99. Is she going to bluff often being OOP with deep stacks?
    AJ? 3Bet
    KQ? 3Bet
    99? 3Bet
    Bluff Often? No
    %-FORM 8.9% #Combos 118
    VILLAIN'S RANGE:
    AA-88,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-A9s,KQs,QJs
    Flop:
    :AS: :QH: :3S:
    Based upon the range of hands the BB would 3bet preflop, do you think she bets the flop with these hands?
    Top Pair? Bets
    Flush Draw? Bets
    Two Pair (or better) Bets
    Since she's a solid TAG I think she CBets her entire range on this flop.
    % of Previous Range 100.0%, #Combos 90
    VILLAIN'S RANGE:
    AA-88,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-A9s,KQs,QJs
    Turn:
    :7C:
    The BB bets $150 and you call.
    Does her bet sizing tell you anything about her hand? Would she bet half-pot twice with these hands?
    Top Pair? Yes
    Qx? No
    Bluffs? Some
    % of Previous Range 65.6%
    COMBOS 59
    VILLAIN'S RANGE:
    AA,QQ,99-88,AKo-AJo,AKs-A9s,KsQs,QsJs
    River:
    :9D:
    Based upon the line the BB has taken and the ranges you have assigned - would the BB check the river with these hands?
    AA? No
    AK? No
    Two Pair? No
    Unless she is looking to check raise I do not see why she would check any of these hands.
    % of Previous Range 21.1%, #Combos 8
    Given the range you think the BB has, answer the following questions:
    Does she check any hands that crush you? Not unless I think she will check raise
    Can she check/call worse hands? Not Really, There aren't many
    What happens if you bet $300? She folds
    What happens if you bet $500? She folds
    FINAL ANSWER: CHECK OR BET? Bet
  • MattPMattP Red Chipper Posts: 98 ✭✭
    edited July 2017
    What's so interesting about this workbook and this discussion is that it shows me how much people have widely divergent ideas of that a "Solid TAG" or "Super Aggro" player is... I'm amazed that so many people think a a solid TAG has such a wide 3-bet preflop range. [FWIW, I gave villain 78 combos preflop] It's entirely possible that you're all right and my estimate is wrong, but it's quite an eye-opener.

    The other thing I'm realizing is that even with my own math coming up with the conclusion that betting $500 should be +EV here, it's hard to honestly say that I'd shove out a $500 bet at a live table in this spot. It's one thing to speculate here and come to this conclusion and be confident that I started with an accurate range for the villain. A lot of this math and logic relies on the starting assumptions for villains range being right — if you're off, you're crushed and just spewed $600 or so with top pair, decent kicker...

    Am I the only one struggling with this?
  • Laurence CLaurence C Red Chipper Posts: 28 ✭✭
    edited July 2017
    Assign a range to a very solid TAG can be trick, it all depends on what one may think a solid TAG means. The range I assign here for Villain is wide because Villain understand the steal from button tactics.
    Villain's Range: AA-TT,22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KJo,AKs-A9s,KQs-KJs,K4s-K2s,Q6s-Q2s,J7s-J6s,T7s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s [16%]

    Flop :As :Qh :3s

    Bets $75 into 150
    Based upon the range of hands the BB would 3bet preflop, do you think she bets the flop with these hands?
    Top Pair: Bet
    Flush Draws: Check-Raise
    2 Pair (or better): Check-Raise
    Villain's line of check-raising if Hero bets on the flop helps to disguise the strength of Villain's range.
    Villain's range on the flop: AA,QQ,AKo-ATo,AKs-A9s,Q3s,KsQs,KsJs,Ks4s,Ks2s,Qs6s,Qs5s,Qs4s,Qs2s,Js7s,Js6s,Ts7s,9s8s,9s7s,9s6s,8s7s,8s6s,8s5s,7s6s,7s5s,6s5s,6s4s,5s4s [35%]
    Turn:
    :7C:
    The BB bets $150 and you call.
    Does her bet sizing tell you anything about her hand? Would she bet half-pot twice with these hands?
    Top Pair? Yes
    Qx? Yes
    Bluffs? Yes
    Villain's Range: AA,QQ,AKo-ATo,AKs-A9s,Q3s,KsQs,KsJs,Ks4s,Ks2s,Qs6s,Qs5s,Qs4s,Qs2s,Js7s,Js6s,Ts7s,9s8s,9s7s,9s6s,8s7s,8s6s,8s5s,7s6s,7s5s,6s5s,6s4s,5s4s [100%]

    River:
    :9D:
    Based upon the line the BB has taken and the ranges you have assigned - would the BB check the river with these hands?
    AA? Yes
    AK? Yes
    Two Pair? Yes

    Villain's must bet these hands for value on the river. Why? Because if Villain only bets on the river with bluffs, and check with monster hands, this becomes very exploitable in the future.
    Villain's range: AJo-ATo,AJs-ATs [29%]

    Given the range you think the BB has, answer the following questions:
    Does she check any hands that crush you? No
    Can she check/call worse hands? No
    What happens if you bet $300? She folds
    What happens if you bet $500? She folds
    FINAL ANSWER: CHECK OR BET? Bet

    P.S. what would you do if BB bets on the river?
    $300? $500?
    My logic here would be I fold if Villain bets $300 and call if bets $500, why?
    A half bet pot disguises the strength of BB range, so it becomes very difficult for me to decide whether it is a bluff or not. Of course, this is assuming she will also bet half pots with her monster hands. So this bet size becomes very difficult to decipher: monster hand or bluff?
    A $500 is asking to be looked up. In this case, I would shove on the river instead of calling the $500. If a small size of bet can make your opponent fold, why would you want to risk a larger size bet, since you will get called with hands which beats you.
  • SicSemperSicSemper Red Chipper Posts: 105 ✭✭
    I'm super late to the party, I know, but I just got the workbook for Christmas. This was the first hand where I felt like I was fairly far afield from the forum, so I just wanted to pop this up here in case anyone is still looking and had feedback:

    PREFLOP RANGE
    AA-99, 22-44, 54s-98s, 86s-J9s, Q9s, A2s+, K5s-K7s, KJs+, AJo+, KQo
    14.5%, 178 combos

    I play 1/2 in Vegas, and just am almost never in steal/resteal situations. I haven't really developed a range of my own for 3-bet restealing, so I'm defaulting to the Miller resteal range from The Course. It's kind of a careful range that probably matches an average decent low-stakes player's percentage, though not necessarily construction.

    With these stacks, I think we normally want to play a merged range, but I'm probably going to be a bit more cautious here because I don't want to level myself here.

    :As :Qh :3S:

    FLOP RANGE

    Does BB bet top pair: Yes
    Flush draws: Yes
    Two pair-plus: No

    KK, 54s-98s, 86s-J9s, Q9s, A2s, A4s-AJs, AKs, K5s-K7s, KJs-KQs, AJo, AQo, KQo

    AA-QQ,AKo-AQo,KQo,AKs-AQs,KQs
    55.2% of previous, 79 combos

    Even on a dynamic board, in this situation I think 2p-plus is crushing this flop, and I think a TAG type is going to check sets and two-pair to induce in most situations. I also think top pair and queens are strong enough for a TAG to bet, but underpairs, JJ-99 have to be cautious. The draws are good for two barrels here. If I'm V, I'm thinking a hero is going to pay off enough on an ace if the draw comes in enough to make barreling profitable.

    :7C:

    TURN RANGE

    Would V bet half pot with top pair: Some
    QX: Yes
    Bluffs: I'd be surprised

    KK, A2s-A9s, K5s-K7sm KJs-KQs, KQo, Q9s, 86s-T8s, 54s-98s
    59.6% of previous range, 46.5 combos

    I'd expect her to shade higher with a strong kicker here hoping to suck in weaker aces. Half pot feels like the draws, second pair, and weak aces to me.

    :9D:

    RIVER RANGE

    Would V check with AA: N/A
    AK: No
    Two pair: I think some percent of the time, she might check to induce this river. The draws bricked and the V has played this in a way that doesn't show a ton of strength with two half-pot bets in a button/blind situation. I assigned 20% to any combos that hit two pair on the turn or river.

    KK, A2s, A4s-A6s, A8s, K5s-K7s, KJs-KQs, J9s-86s, 98s-54sA7s, A9sQ9s
    92% of previous, 41.4 combos

    Not much changes here, to me, except I'm taking out a few of the better ace combos.

    Given V's range:

    Does she check any hands that crush you? A couple occasional two-pair combos
    Can she check/call worse hands? Yes, especially the weaker aces and likely a few better queens
    What happens if you bet $300? She makes a crying call with weak top pairs, good queens, maybe kings
    What happens if you bet $500? She folds all but the induced 2p hands and possibly the top-of-remaining-range aces if she's deeply suspicious
    Check or bet? Fire away.
  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 455 ✭✭✭
    PREFLOP: RANGE
    AA-99,AKo-ATo,AKs-ATs,[55]KQo,KQs[/55]
    (%-form 6.84%)(# combos 83.8
    Preflop: As a Solid TAG resteal range out of position will still be fairly tight. These players tend to prefer post flop than pre.

    :As :Qh :3S:
    FLOP: RANGE
    QQ,AKo-ATo,AKs-ATs,[55]KQs[/55]:a15c1a153:a16:a15b1:a16
    (39%-of previous range # combos 32,85)
    Flop" BB certainly bets top pair to pair and draws. checks under pairs and top set

    :7C:
    TURN: RANGE
    KK,AKo,AJo-ATo,KQo,AKs,AJs-ATs,KsQs
    (100%-of previous range)(# combos 32.85)
    Turn: from flop betting range would bet entire range on the this turn

    :9D:
    RIVER: RANGE
    KK,AKo,AJo-ATo,KQo,AKs,AJs-ATs,KsQs
    (96%-of previous range)(# combos 31.5)
    River: Bets all 2pr or better. bets AK 76%

    Yes can check call hands that crush me, and check call worse. A half pot bet folds out worse and called by better with few hand I beat. 500 bet agan only folds out hands I beat or chop with, I CHECK behind
  • Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
    Hand 12 Section 2
    Preflop: I open AJs for $25 and get 3B $75 TAG in BB perhaps thinking I am trying a steal. Her re-stealing OOP while deep stacked seems unlikely against my relatively deep stack. I think she would have called with AJ, KK, or 99, not bluffed. I put her on a range of 20% (270 combos) AA-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s. I call with AJs.
    Flop :As :3s :Qh
    She bets with top pair, does not continue with flush draws and bets with two pairs. Her range is 17% of previous (35 Combos) AA,QQ,33,AKo-ATo,AKs-ATs.
    Turn :7c
    She continues betting $ 150 with sets, two pair and top pair. She would not have bet Qx nor would she be bluff with an AQ on the board and me continuing. She is 100% of previous (35 combos)
    River :9d
    The solid TAG BB checks, and I conclude she has an AT and has started to concede the hand to my possible holding of an Ace with a higher kicker. She would not be conceding if she held AA, AK or two pair. She does not check any hands that crush because she would want me to fold so she does not have to show her hand. She does not check call a worse hand because she is convinced I have a hand and she calls if I bet $300 because of 2 to 1 pot odds but folds to a $500 bet for the same reason. She is 100% of previous (35 combos)
  • Naïm TerracheNaïm Terrache Red Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
    Hand #12

    PreFlop Range : AA-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,[30]JTs,T9s,98s,87s[/30]

    All PP and BWs / 78s-JTs 30% of the time on resteal, due to her solid image.

    % Form 17.9 / Combos 238

    Flop Range :
    AA,QQ,33,AKo-ATo,AKs-ATs,KsQs,KsJs,KsTs,QsJs,QsTs,[30]JsTs,Ts9s,9s8s,8s7s[/30]


    Based upon the range of hands the BB would 3bet preflop, do you think she bets the flop with these hands?
    Top pair? Yes
    Flush draws? Yes
    Two Pair (Or Better)? Yes

    The fact she bets half pot could mean a polarized range consisting of nuttish combos and big draws/semi bluffs.

    % Form 25 / Combos 42

    Turn Range :
    AA,QQ,33,AKo-AQo,AKs-ATs,KsQs,KsJs,KsTs,[30]JsTs,8s7s[/30]


    Does her bet sizing tell you anything about her hand? Would she bet half-pot twice with these hands?
    Top pair? Yes
    QX? Some yes, some no. Suited ones yes.
    Bluffs? Only semi-bluffs (flush draws)

    % Form 70 / Combos 28

    River Range : AKo,AKs,AJs-ATs

    Based upon the line the BB has taken and the ranges you have assigned - would the BB check the river with these hands?
    AA? No
    Ace King? Yes
    Two Pair? No

    Given the range you think the BB has, answer the following questions:
    Does she check any hands that crush you?
    Can she check/call worse hands? 8 Combos of AK
    What happens if you bet $300? Only get called by better, best option is split with AJs as she probably folds AT
    What happens if you bet $500? Same

    FINAL ANSWER: CHECK OR BET? I would check this hand.

    Thoughts?
  • Joe DoreJoe Dore Red Chipper Posts: 2 ✭✭
    I think, if V is smart then they will flat with any broadway since it crushes our steal range. I have V on a much more polarized range leaning heavily on bluff. Basically hands that play well but can't call OOP

    V;22-88/ KK+/ A2-9s/ 43s-TJs/ 53s-T8s 10.7% 142 combos

    Flop As Qh 3S pot 150 SPR around 9

    This flop is going to be really hard for us to continue unless we get a piece of it so I have V cbetting 1/2 with their entire range. only has to work 33% of the time and 67% of the time we're likely going to fold so

    V: 22-88/ KK+/ A2-9s/ 43s-TJs/ 53s-T8s 100% 126

    Turn 7c V bets 1/2 pot. Sizing wise I don't think V is working hard enough to put their entire stack in so I'm leaving out sets and 2 pair hands. I feel this is really polarized to TP hands and semi bluffs, leaning heave on the SB.

    V: A2ss/ A4-6ss/ A8-9ss/ 54s/ 65ss-TJss/ 64ss - T8ss 28% 33 combos

    River 9d

    no V is in a WA:WB situation. Smart player checks to induce a bluff from a missed draw to really increase the EV of them making a call. EV for V if btn bets missed draws - 57.14% or 18.92% going up against another A
  • Shawn JShawn J Red Chipper Posts: 59 ✭✭
    $2/$5. The BB has proven herself to be a very solid TAG, playing most of her hands aggressively but not getting out of line. She doubled up earlier when she got it all-in preflop with AA against another player's AK

    9 handed, folds to Hero on BTN w/ AJhh bets $25, BB 3Bets to $75, Hero calls.

    I put BB on a balanced 3Bet range of strong hands and weak bluffs.
    w68ewfdrjswr.png

    FLOP POT $150
    vp4zz82mb8ja.png

    The BB bets $75 and we call

    I assume she'll continue with Top Pair, Flush Draws and Two Pair or Better

    TURN POT $300
    fnptrvs0rhu8.png

    The BB bets $150 and we call

    I assume she continues with her stronger top pairs and 50% of her flush draws

    RIVER POT $600
    Range BB Checks
    bextbmcn6ug3.png

    Range BB bets
    6b3dcmnnwkat.png

    The BB Checks

    I assume she bets her strong made hands, bets half her top pairs, bluffs with her missed flush draws, and checks her showdown weak pairs.

    My hand has 50% against her checking range and only 30% against her betting range. I choose to Check since I believe I won't get better to fold or worse to call.
  • Troy HTroy H Red Chipper Posts: 36 ✭✭
    I believe that a TAG is going to play a merged 3betting range OOP BVB. I do think that it will be a little tighter than when they are in position, however, due to the deeper stacks I have included things like KJs and KTs.

    45ffi8khpvj8.png

    I believe that a TAG would understand that they have range advantage on this type of board. This would mean they would bet gut-shots for 2 streets as well as Qx flushdraws.

    On the river, I believe that they will try to bluff catch with their AK hands, bet everything else, and then fold Qx hands to a decent sized raise. The only Qx hands that continue were they ones with flush draws.

    If the opponent bet the river it would be interesting because I think they could have all combos of KJ in their range. Depending on how much they bet would determine if I was to call or not.
  • AP07AP07 Red Chipper Posts: 22 ✭✭
    The turn bet is the street that tells us the most in my opinion. Most TAGs in live games are three betting a value heavy range OOP and AJ even suited doesnt match up that great but is also a little too strong to fold. If she checked turn I would bet confidently. But the turn bet almost always tells us we're beat. The river check would still make me tempted to go for thin value but it's super thin.

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