Hand #15

dmansendmansen Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
Note: I exported the ranges from Flopzilla without suits. The combo counts don't match up to the ranges you see here (suits explained in comments).

This hand deals with wide donking ranges. It's difficult to put this player on a range. If we had specific tendencies it would be easier - does he lead with draws or always check-raise? Etc. I played a bit with the turn / river ranges. He needs to start betting a really really tight range for folding to be correct.

1/2

Weak TAG opens CO $10 ($655)
Range: AA-55,AKo-ATo,KQo-KJo,QJo,JTo,AKs-A9s,KQs-K9s,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s
186 combos
15.2% of preflop range

Hero calls BTN :Jc :9c ($450)

Never folds calls $9 from SB ($580)
Range: TT-22,AQo-A2o,KQo-K5o,QJo-Q7o,JTo-J7o,T9o-T8o,98o-97o,87o-86o,76o-75o,65o-64o,54o,AQs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J4s,T9s-T6s,98s-95s,87s-85s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s-42s,32s,[50]JJ,AKo[/50]
702.5 combos
57.3% of preflop range

Give him 50% of AKo and JJ for possible 3bets

AQ? Call offsuit, 4bet AQs 25%
TT? Call
KTs? Call

Flop: :Jd :Jh :7h

SB leads $20 into $30

Range: AJs,KJs,QJs,[50]TT-88,AKo,AJo,KJo,QJo,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o,JTs-J8s,J6s-J4s,T9s-T8s,98s,AhQh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,KhQh,KhTh,Kh9h,Kh8h,Kh6h,Kh5h,Kh4h,Kh3h,Kh2h,QhTh,Qh9h,Qh8h,Qh6h,Qh5h,Qh4h,Qh3h,Qh2h[/50],[25]97o,87o,76o-75o,A7s,K7s,Q7s,T7s,97s,87s,76s-75s[/25]
75.25 combos
10.7% of flop range

Things get tricky here. I think he’d check-raise often with manyflush draws. I gave him 50% of all FDs, 7x hands, gutshots, and TT-88.

I have JJ, J7, and 77 all checking.

We give him some jacks to account for check-raises.

Jx? Mix of lead and check-raise
Flush draws? Similar to Jx
88 or 7x? Bet 25%

Hero check-raises to $60
SB calls

Range: [50]AJs,KJs,QJs[/50],[25]AJo,KJo,QJo,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o,JTs-J8s,J6s-J4s,T9s-T8s,98s,AhQh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,KhQh,KhTh,Kh9h,Kh8h,Kh6h,Kh5h,Kh4h,Kh3h,Kh2h,QhTh,Qh9h,Qh8h,Qh6h,Qh5h,Qh4h,Qh3h,Qh2h[/25]
23.75 combos
31.5% of flop bet range

I think he’ll 3bet the flop with many jacks and good flush draws. 7x hands fold.

Jx? Flat some
Flush draws? Flat some, 3bet some
Air? Fold stuff without equity

Turn: :3s ($150)

Range: [50]AJs,KJs,QJs[/50],[25]AJo,KJo,QJo,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o,JTs-J8s,J6s-J4s,T9s-T8s,98s,AhQh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,KhQh,KhTh,Kh9h,Kh8h,Kh6h,Kh5h,Kh4h,Kh3h,Kh2h,QhTh,Qh9h,Qh8h,Qh6h,Qh5h,Qh4h,Qh3h,Qh2h[/25]
23.75 combos
100% of flopcall range

I couldn’t think of which hands to remove from his range here. He’ll want to continue betting with almost everything. 1/2pot supports that this isn’t a huge value hand.

Full Houses? No (and most would have check/raised flop)
Flush draws? Yes lots

River: :Kc ($290)

SB bets $150

Range: [50]QJs[/50],[25]QJo,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o,Q6s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,T4s,98s,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,KhQh,KhTh,Kh9h,Kh8h,Kh6h,Kh5h,Kh4h,Kh3h,Kh2h,QhTh,Qh9h,Qh8h,Qh5h,Qh4h,Qh3h,Qh2h[/25]
21 combos
89.3% of turn bet range

Again, I can’t figure out which hands don’t bet. I removed KJ and AJ figuring he’d bet bigger for value, and some of the worst jacks which may check.

Should you fold? No, we have like 87% equity against this range
If no, should you call or go all in? Almost always call. He has very few worse jacks in his range.

Comments

  • OutlierOutlier Red Chipper Posts: 143 ✭✭
    $1/2
    Weak TAG opens CO $10 ($655)
    VILLAIN PREFLOP RANGE: 12%, 147 combos
    Villain 1 could be a bit wider here, but since he was described as weak, I took out suited connectors and such.

    d06sv87b8vya.png

    Hero calls BTN :Jc :9c ($450)

    Never folds calls $9 from SB ($580)
    VILLAIN 2 PREFLOP CALLING RANGE: 58%, 716 combos

    gffn6h7tb61b.png

    4-bets AQs, AK, JJ+

    AQ? Call offsuit, 4bet AQs
    TT? Call
    KTs? Call

    Flop: :Jd :Jh :7h

    SB leads $20 into $30

    VILLAIN FLOP DONKING RANGE: 24%, 163 combos

    vnwylzumgdx2.png

    He bets anything he thinks has equity here: any pair, flush draw or J-X. Still a wide range, though his continuing range is a small portion of his preflop range since he SO wide preflop.

    I would think he would slowplay all full houses, but I threw in the J7 and 2 combos of 77 as part of the spazziness of this kind of unpredictable player.

    Jx? Mix of lead and check-raise
    Flush draws? Similar to Jx
    88 or 7x? bet

    Hero check-raises to $60
    SB calls

    vicayql7bh9b.png

    I don't think villain is folding many pairs here. He calls all 7-X and even some 33-66 since they are still good vs flush draws.

    NOTE: I had issues on this hand (like in hand 14) with villain's range being so weak from street to street that I went back and added in stronger hands like J-X and a few full houses just to air on the conservative side, though I think it's unlikely he ends up with many of those at all.

    Jx? raise some, flat some
    Flush draws? Flat some, 3bet some
    Air? Fold stuff without equity

    Turn: :3s ($150)

    VILLAIN TURN FLOP LEADING RANGE: 79%, 103 combos\

    yileed5vuun1.png

    I characterized this villain very similar to someone I played a week ago, who rarely folded and bet multiple streets with any kind of equity, even if it made no sense--as if his mantra was to bet every time with anything just because...

    With that in mind, he's betting all his 88-TT, 7-X hands, and even some 33-66.

    Full Houses? yes, but he has only 2 combos
    Flush draws? the ones that picked up a pair or gut shots

    River: :Kc ($290)

    SB bets $150

    VILLAIN RIVER DONKING RANGE: 85%, 85 combos
    r0lqilr1v4na.png

    I just left all his strongest hands (strong J-X, 77, and KJ) in his range, even though these are unlikely. Even then, my hand is still 85% vs his range.

    Should you fold? NO! We are 85% vs his range.
    If no, should you call or go all in? Go all in. It's very difficult for him to have air or monsters. His bet sizing on the turn and river indicates to me a very medium strength hand. Busted flush draws are a significant portion of my range and he may think 7-X is a fine bluff catcher vs a bluff-raise from me on the river. I have such an equity advantage, villain's hand looks very medium strength, and he doesn't like to fold. I am good WAY more than 50% of the time when called here, so I should bet.
  • Mike VMike V Red Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
    edited August 2016
    I got a little more conservative range for the villain at the end leaving him with 18 combos. We are still a 3/2 favorite, so shoving is the right play, but he will show up with a better hand about 40% of the time. So if you are a conservative player, you might want to just call down. I am aggressive so I'm shoving almost every time here and of course I will have my re-buy ready to go when I hear the words, "I call," and he shows me KJ of hearts for the nuts on the river.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,281 ✭✭✭✭
    edited November 2016
    I kinda agree with the ranges of @Outlier and @dmansen so I won't post mine (except if demanded)

    Considering SB: I think he is an unpredictable fish, and the table is tilty with a lot of chips flying, thus this kinda implying he could be spewy. And be able to lead flop and T with weak pair and some no made hands. (So @Mike V , why would you see Villain more conservative?)
    It's possible he gives us a C-R, but I don't see him being able to do it smartly but more to gamble a hand he likes (even if with little equity) or to bluff.

    Since we hit set on the flop, I only think from this point "how can I stack him?". Hence I'm happy to see him leading and happy to go all-in on the turn . There are some case he could beat us with some JX or 77 combos, but we crush most of his hands (even if he honestly bet the river i.e. with boat, set and a lucky King-top pair)
  • NuttedNutterNuttedNutter Red Chipper Posts: 44
    HAND #15

    Given the description of table dynamics I'd give the CO a more value oriented range.

    VILLAIN RANGE: AA-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A9s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s

    %FORM: 19.8%
    COMBOS#: 242

    SB Never Folds 3bet or call w/..

    AQ? Call. If SB hasn't 3bet much yet playing a lot of hands/very active then I'd assume SB is calling. I think that for this player AQ is right on the cusp of whether they'd call or 3bet it. If he hasn't 3bet much then I'd assume the times he has it's been for strictly value QQ+ and maybe AKo/s but might even flat sometimes or always.

    TT? Call. I believe if SB isn't 3betting AQ then I think he'd think that TT is a hand similar to AQ and that he'd rather just call than 3bet.

    KTs? Call. I believe SB views this hand as less valuable than TT's and AQ therefore it's more likely he'd call vs. 3bet here.

    SB VILLAIN RANGE: AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K2o,QJo-Q2o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s,76s,65s

    %FORM: 53.9%
    COMBOS#: 660

    :Jd :Jh :7h

    SB lead or c-r w/..

    JX? Lead. As described he's active, yet not 3betting much so there's not much indicating that he's aggressive at all. I think a more laggish aggro type or a solid tag player would be more inclined to c-r JX here. I think w/ Jx he just simply thinks "oh a Jack. Bet." Maybe sometimes he c-c's JX.

    Flush Draws? Leads. I'm sticking w/ my initial read that this type of player being that there's not much to describe his aggression factor other than he hasn't 3bet much but is active. So if there's not much indication in that regard I'd say he'd either lead w/ FD's because he doesn't know what else to do w/ it other than c-calling. He hasn't been described as a tricky or calculated player for that matter... just that he never folds and is in a lot of pots so I'm leaning more towards loose passive tendencies mixed in w/ "not very experienced I dunno bet".

    88 or 7X? Leads. Same reasoning as above leads because he either thinks since he's hit the board he can bet anything he hits for value and is likely the type that's only familiar w/ the absolute value of his hand vs relative value. Probably not thinking much about my range.

    VILLAIN RANGE: AA-QQ,TT-77,AJo,A7o,KJo,K7o,QJo,Q7o,JTo-J8o,AJs,A7s,KJs,K7s,QJs,Q7s,JTs-J8s,87s,76s,AhKh,AhQh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,KhQh,KhTh,Kh9h,Kh8h,Kh6h,Kh5h,Kh4h,Kh3h,Kh2h,QhTh,Qh9h,Qh8h,Qh6h,Qh5h,Qh4h,Qh3h,Qh2h,Th9h,Th8h,9h8h,6h5h

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 22.1%
    COMBOS#: 131

    SB more likely to flat or re-raise w/..

    JX? Re-raise. I think a player of this type is the type that likely thinks JX no matter the kicker is the nuts and fears being outdrawn to a few draws present.

    Flush Draws? Flats. I think he does this w/ 100% of his FD's. If I thought he wasn't capable of c-ring his nut flush combos then I don't think he'd re-raise them here. Again there's not much info given to lead me to believe he's an aggressive player.

    Air? Flats. If he's described as "Never Folds" then I suppose in his mind he will find an excuse to call in this case I think hands like T9, T8, 98, overcards like AK, AQ, KQ and even all suited diamond hands giving him a 2card backdoor fd.

    VILLAIN RANGE: AA-QQ,TT-77,AKo-AJo,A7o,KQo-KJo,K7o,QJo,Q7o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o,AKs-AJs,A7s,KQs-KJs,K7s,QJs,Q7s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s,76s,AhTh,AdTd,Ah9h,Ad9d,Ah8h,Ad8d,Ah6h,Ad6d,Ah5h,Ad5d,Ah4h,Ad4d,Ah3h,Ad3d,Ah2h,Ad2d,KhTh,KdTd,Kh9h,Kd9d,Kh8h,Kd8d,Kh6h,Kd6d,Kh5h,Kd5d,Kh4h,Kd4d,Kh3h,Kd3d,Kh2h,Kd2d,QhTh,QdTd,Qh9h,Qd9d,Qh8h,Qd8d,Qh6h,Qd6d,Qh5h,Qd5d,Qh4h,Qd4d,Qh3h,Qd3d,Qh2h,Qd2d,6h5h,6d5d

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 40.1%
    COMBOS#: 238

    T: :3s

    1.5x turn bet indicates hands like...

    Full Houses? No. I believe w/ a full house he would bet closer to pot size since it is the turn and there's only 1 street left to get stacks in, it would make more sense to start building a pot bigger.

    Flush Draws? Yes. I believe a 1.5x bet w/ a FD makes sense. My reasoning falls back on the same logic I'd think that his particular player is likely thinking.. that he doesn't know what else to do w/ his semi-bluff so he elects to bet hoping for a fold or that I'll call and he'll river a flush.

    VILLAIN RANGE: AA-QQ,TT-77,AJo,A7o,KJo,K7o,QJo,Q7o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o,AJs,A7s,KJs,K7s,QJs,Q7s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s,76s,AhKh,AhQh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,KhQh,KhTh,Kh9h,Kh8h,Kh6h,Kh5h,Kh4h,Kh3h,Kh2h,QhTh,Qh9h,Qh8h,Qh6h,Qh5h,Qh4h,Qh3h,Qh2h,6h5h,6d5d

    % OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 71%
    COMBOS#: 169

    R: :Kc

    Should you fold? No
    Should you call or go ai? Hmm. Good question. To call I have more than enough equity required but if there is still a small part of his range that I think he'd call and live up to his name "never folds" then I think I'd go all-in.

    My reason is well a part of his range on the turn was suited KX of hearts. If I thought he'd likely re-raise any JX on flop then I don' think he has it on the turn, full houses he would have bet bigger on turn so I don't think he has those often at all.

    So there's nothing really to fear that beats me. His range shrinks up to KX of hearts that just rivered TP or maybe thinks K7 is the nuts.

    I think SB Never Folds is capable of calling an all-in so I should give him the chance to pay me off.

    VILLAIN RANGE: K7o,K7s,AhKh,KhQh,KhTh,Kh9h,Kh8h,Kh6h,Kh5h,Kh4h,Kh3h,Kh2h

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 11.7%
    COMBOS#: 19

    Interested to see if others thought along the same lines or totally different...







  • uncleB118rusuncleB118rus Red Chipper Posts: 33 ✭✭


    HAND #15 DATE 22.01.17
    NOTES:


    THEIR PREFLOP RANGE

    CO range: AA-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo,AKs-A7s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s

    So, admitting that the table is quite tilty – and we have a guy with a high fight% - if we put him more on an agro side (players like that usually are like that), so yes he would probably 3 bet cards like this, so lets assign his range here

    SB range : 88-22,AJo-A2o,KJo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AJs-A2s,KJs-K5s,QJs-Q7s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T7s,98s-96s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s,54s

    %-FORM

    19%
    COMBOS

    #228
    SECTION TWO TEMPLATE

    THEIR FLOP RANGE
    So, we have a weak villain here – weak players usually if they smash the boards – they never bet – they get to check minraise or something like this mode. – so lets take out all monsters from his range. Lets go forward – so, giving that fact that board is paired – he might add some bluffing hands in his range – any middle pair he would probably bet as well and FD of course

    88,66-22,A7o,A7s,K7s,Q7s,T7s,97s,
    87s,76s-75s,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,
    Ah3h,Ah2h,KhTh,Kh9h,Kh8h,
    Kh6h,Kh5h,QhTh,Qh9h,Qh8h,Th9h,Th8h,9h8h,9h6h
    ,8h6h,6h5h,5h4h,[50]ATo-A8o,A6o-A2o,AcTc,AdTd,AsTs,Ad9d,As9s,Ac8c,Ad8d,As8s,Ac6c,Ad6d
    ,As6s,Ac5c,Ad5d
    ,As5s,Ac4c,Ad4d,As4s,Ac3c,Ad3d,As3s,Ac2c,Ad2d,As2s[/50]


    % OF PREVIOUS RANGE

    46%
    COMBOS

    #149


    THEIR flop RANGE
    After reraise

    After Reraise the guy who never folds – would never fold anything that has at least a bit of equity. He might call or fold some of his A high hands, so lets remove some of them after reraise
    His range now looks like this

    88,66-22,A7o,A7s,K7s,
    Q7s,T7s,97s,87s,76s-75s,
    AhTh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,
    Ah2h,KhTh,Kh9h,Kh8h,Kh6h,
    Kh5h,QhTh,Qh9h,Qh8h,
    Th9h,Th8h,9h8h,9h6h,8h6h,6h5h,
    5h4h,[15]ATo-A8o,A6o-A2o,AcTc,AdTd,AsTs,Ad9d,As9s,Ac8c,Ad8d
    ,As8s,Ac6c,Ad6d,As6s,Ac5c,
    Ad5d,As5s,Ac4c,Ad4d,As4s,Ac3c,Ad3d,
    As3s,Ac2c,Ad2d,As2s[/15]

    % OF PREVIOUS RANGE

    72%
    COMBOS

    #108
    Notice that reraise is totally valid vs this type of villain – he almost never folds and even if he folds here – folds complete garbage – that he would not bet on future streets anyway, plus he might call with garbage now as well

    THEIR TURN RANGE
    So, even if he would call flop reraise with
    Air – he would least likely lead turn with no equity. So its almost never a pure bluff. Full house? If it is – its only 33 that he could play this way – anything else we discount from him by his play on previous streets. FD? Yes, most likely AXh
    So its basically FD and 33

    % OF PREVIOUS RANGE

    25%
    COMBOS

    #26
    Notice that he has quite a lot FD combos, because of his wide opening range!!!

    THEIR RIVER RANGE
    So after reraise on flop – he would least likely lead turn with second or low pair – he would most likely check call or check fold on turn (more inclined check call, cuz he never folds, lol)))) JX – he would not lead on flop – he would check raise it, 33 – he would bet larger on river, so most likely he has KXh – TP with K – so he has nothing in his range that beats us – we hould go all-inn

    SB river range: KhTh,Kh9h,Kh8h,Kh6h,Kh5h



    % OF PREVIOUS RANGE

    20%
    COMBOS

    #5

    So, as you notice @NuttedNutter, my thought process is almost the same as yours))
    Quite interesting hand, allowing to narrow down the range up to 5 combos basically
  • foxxxerfoxxxer Red Chipper Posts: 100 ✭✭
    $1/2

    Weak TAG open CO to $10, Hero calls on BTN with :JC: :9C:
    Player who never folds calls from SB

    I'm only eliminating QQ-AA for 3-bets, and I think a good % of passive 1/2 players would just call w. QQ here.

    PF Range: JJ-22,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J3s+,T5s+,95s+,85s+,74s+,63s+,53s+,42s+,32s,A2o+,K4o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T7o+,96o+,85o+,75o+,64o+,54o,43o (786, 64%)

    Flop ($30) : :JH: :JD: :7H:

    SB bets $20, Hero raises to $60, SB calls

    Jx? Some leads, usually check
    Flush draws? Lead 75%
    88 or 7x? Bet all 88-TT, 60% 7x

    Most players seem to just love to slowplay or x/r with trips here, so I'm discounting plenty of Js and all full houses. The type of player who is donking a J for value would probably 3-bet AJ and KJ as well, so I'm keeping QJ-J8 only. I'll keep all 7x with a kicker above 6, all flush draws better than 6-high, and a couple random gutters.

    I think a passive 1/2 V is never 3-betting here with less than a J, so a call maintains the whole donk range.

    Flop range: TT,88,Ad7s,Ad7c,Ah7d,Ah7s,Ah7c,As7d,As7c,Ac7d,Ac7s,AhKh,Kd7s,Kd7c,Kh7d,Kh7s,Kh7c,Ks7d,Ks7c,Kc7d,Kc7s,AhQh,KhQh,Qd7s,Qd7c,Qh7d,Qh7s,Qh7c,Qs7d,Qs7c,Qc7d,Qc7s,JsTd,JsTh,JsTc,Js9d,Js9h,Js8d,Js8h,Js8c,AhTh,KhTh,QhTh,JsTs,Td9h,Td9s,Th9d,Th9s,Ts9d,Ts9h,Tc9d,Tc9h,Tc9s,Td7s,Td7c,Th7d,Th7s,Th7c,Ts7d,Ts7c,Tc7d,Tc7s,Ah9h,Kh9h,Qh9h,Js9s,Th9h,9d9h,9d9s,9h9s,9d7s,9d7c,9h7d,9h7s,9h7c,9s7d,9s7c,Ah8h,Kh8h,Qh8h,Js8s,Th8h,9h8h,8d7s,8d7c,8h7d,8h7s,8h7c,8s7d,8s7c,8c7d,8c7s,Ad7d,As7s,Ac7c,Kd7d,Ks7s,Kc7c,Qd7d,Qs7s,Qc7c,Td7d,Ts7s,Tc7c,9d7d,9s7s,8d7d,8s7s,8c7c,Ah6h,Kh6h,Qh6h,Th6h,9h6h,8h6h,7d6d,7s6s,7c6c,Ah5h,Kh5h,Qh5h,Th5h,9h5h,8h5h,7d5d,7s5s,7c5c,Ah4h,Kh4h,Qh4h,7d4d,7s4s,7c4c,Ah3h,Kh3h,Qh3h,Ah2h,Kh2h,Qh2h (146, 19%)

    Turn($150): :3S:

    SB bets $75

    Full Houses? None make it here
    Flush draws? Yes

    It's hard to imagine V leading for $75 after getting check-raised with a 7. Even though this is half pot, most $1/2 players don't reliably bet based on the size of the pot, and $75 starts to get into "serious bet" territory. I do think the blank would embolden bad players with 88-TT and flush draws however. The few Js that are left would keep firing as well.

    Turn range: TT,88,Ad7s,Ad7c,Ah7d,Ah7s,Ah7c,As7d,As7c,Ac7d,Ac7s,AhKh,AhQh,KhQh,JsTd,JsTh,JsTc,Js9d,Js9h,Js8d,Js8h,Js8c,AhTh,KhTh,QhTh,JsTs,Ah9h,Kh9h,Qh9h,Js9s,Th9h,9d9h,9d9s,9h9s,Ah8h,Kh8h,Qh8h,Js8s,Th8h,9h8h,Ad7d,As7s,Ac7c,Ah6h,Kh6h,Qh6h,Th6h,9h6h,8h6h,Ah5h,Kh5h,Qh5h,Th5h,9h5h,8h5h,Ah4h,Kh4h,Qh4h,Ah3h,Kh3h,Qh3h,Ah2h,Kh2h,Qh2h (74, 49.7%)

    River ($290): :KC:

    SB bets $150

    One of the better possible rivers for us as some random Ks "get there" and the flush draw misses. I think V will bet a couple missed flush draws and all Js.

    Honestly I think this bet is the most interesting point in the hand, as the decision whether to call or raise on the river is a tough one IMO. Would V really bet $150 here with a K? Or would they be more likely to check/call? If V has no Ks, raising makes a lot less sense -- you're really only targeting like J8 and a ridiculously loose TT.

    River range: TT,AhKh,KhQh,JsTd,JsTh,JsTc,Js9d,Js9h,Js8d,Js8h,Js8c,KhTh,QhTh,Kh9h,Qh9h,Kh8h,Qh8h,Kh6h,Qh6h,Kh5h,Kh4h,Kh3h,Kh2h (27, 37.8%)

    Should you fold? God, no
    Call or go all in? Tough call. At the table I'd probably call, but going through this analysis I'm more inclined to shove.
  • AcesaladAcesalad Red Chipper Posts: 240 ✭✭
    The CO should not expect to get this steal through most of the time since the SB does not fold much preflop. Given that, what do you think the CO open-raises here?
    %-Form 14.5% #Combos 192
    Villain's Range:
    AA-77,AKo-ATo,KQo-KJo,AKs-A9s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s,76s
    The SB calls $9 more and the BB folds.
    The SB has been very active, but they have not been 3betting much. Do you think they would 3bet or call with
    AQ? Call
    TT Call
    KTs Call
    %-Form 62.9% #Combos 843
    Villain's Range:
    QQ-22,AQo-A2o,KQo-K2o,QJo-Q2o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o-97o,87o-86o,76o-75o,65o-64o,54o,AQs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T7s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-74s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s,32s
    Flop:
    :JD: :JH: :7H:
    When building a range that you think a player would lead with, ask yourself if they would lead or check-raise with:
    JX? Lead
    Flush Draws? Check-Raise
    88 or 7X? Lead
    % of Previous Range 23.2% #Combos 173
    Villain's Range:
    QQ-77,AJo,A7o,KJo,K7o,QJo,Q7o,JTo-J8o,97o,87o,76o-75o,AJs,A7s,KJs,K7s,QJs,Q7s,JTs-J7s,T7s,97s,87s,76s-74s,AhQh,KhQh,Th9h,Th8h,9h8h
    You raise to $60 and the SB calls.
    Think about the hands the SB would re-raise with. Are they more likely to flat or re-raise with:
    JX? Flat
    Flush Draws? Flat
    Air? Re-raise
    % of Previous Range 34.1% #Combos 59
    Villain's Range:
    JJ,77,AJo,KJo,QJo,JTo-J8o,AJs,KJs,QJs,JTs-J7s,AhQh,KhQh,Th9h,Th8h,9h8h
    Turn:
    :3S:
    Think not only about the fact that the SB lead into you on the turn, but also the fact that the size is about half-pot. Does this line indicate hand-strengths like:
    Full Houses No
    Flush Draws Yes
    % of Previous Range 8.5% #Combos 5
    Villain's Range:
    AhQh,KhQh,Th9h,Th8h,9h8h
    River:
    :KC:
    After you assign a range that the SB would take this exact line with, answer the following question:
    Should You Fold? No, I have him beat
    If no, should you fold or go all in? Go all in
    % of Previous Range 20.0% #Combos 1
    Villain's Range:
    KhQh
  • William HWilliam H Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
    I'm doing Hand 15. I would've thought that even a Pfish would have checkraised trip jacks on the flop as opposed to leading out. Am I giving fish too much credit here? I have so much to learn about this game. :(
  • Laurence CLaurence C Red Chipper Posts: 28 ✭✭
    William H wrote: »
    I'm doing Hand 15. I would've thought that even a Pfish would have checkraised trip jacks on the flop as opposed to leading out. Am I giving fish too much credit here? I have so much to learn about this game. :(

    It depends on the texture of the flop. The reason why a Pfish would lead on flop:
    :JD: :JH: :7H:
    It is because of the flush draw. These type of players do understand that if they bet, anyone with a flush draw in their hand will call, also, they are afraid to be drawn out.
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,844 -
    If you all are interested, I analyzed this hand in a multi-part series:

    http://www.splitsuit.com/how-to-build-poker-ranges-with-example
    My latest poker course brings the popular book 'Poker's 1%' to life- The One Percent
  • Russ IRuss I Red Chipper Posts: 67 ✭✭
    I completely butchered this hand. I have such a hard time getting MY ranges out of my head when trying to assign ranges to the opponent.
  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 427 ✭✭✭
    $1/2

    Weak TAG open CO to $10, Hero calls on BTN with :JC: :9C:
    Player who never folds calls from SB
    Preflop:CO bets a standard 28% range. SB likely only 3bets QQ+ AK
    27.4/97.2% 324/1191 Combos
    CO:AA-44,AKo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s

    SBJJ-22,AQo-A2o,KQo-K2o,QJo-Q2o,JTo-J2o,T9o-T2o,98o-92o,87o-82o,76o-72o,65o-62o,54o-52o,43o-42o,32o,AQs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J2s,T9s-T2s,98s-92s,87s-82s,76s-72s,65s-62s,54s-52s,43s-42s,32s

    Flop ($30) : :JH: :JD: :7H:
    SB bets $20, Hero raises to $60, SB calls
    40.8% of previous 486.4 Combos
    RANGE: TT-88,66-22,AQo-A2o,KQo-KJo,K7o,QJo,Q7o,JTo-J8o,J6o-J2o,T9o-T7o,98o-97o,87o,76o-72o,AQs-A2s,KQs-KJs,K7s,QJs,Q7s,JTs-J8s,J6s-J2s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s,76s-72s,KhTh,KdTd,Kh9h,Kd9d,Kh8h,Kd8d,Kh6h,Kd6d,Kh5h,Kd5d,Kh4h,Kd4d,Kh3h,Kd3d,Kh2h,Kd2d,QhTh,QdTd,Qh9h,Qd9d,Qh8h,Qd8d,Qh6h,Qd6d,Qh5h,Qd5d,Qh4h,Qd4d,Qh3h,Qd3d,Qh2h,Qd2d,Th6h,Td6d,Th5h,Td5d,Th4h,Td4d,Th3h,Td3d,Th2h,Td2d,9h6h,9d6d,9h5h,9d5d,9h4h,9d4d,9h3h,9d3d,9h2h,9d2d,8h6h,8d6d,8h5h,8d5d,8h4h,8d4d,8h3h,8d3d,8h2h,8d2d,6h5h,6d5d,6h4h,6d4d,6h3h,6d3d,6h2h,6d2d,5h4h,5d4d,5h3h,5d3d,5h2h,5d2d,4h3h,4d3d,4h2h,4d2d,3h2h,3d2d

    SB likely checks Jx 80% bets all other pairs and draws checks quads and full house. Also a good board to bluff at. With stacks this deep I think SB calls with most hands reraising only J10+

    Turn($150): :3S:
    SB bets $75
    80.8% of previous 255.8 Combos
    RANGE: JJ-99,66,22,A6o,KTo,T9o,A6s,K6s,T9s,86s,76s,65s-64s
    Full Houses? Yes
    Flush draws? Yes

    Good spot for V to donk draws so can set price. Also Value hands want to get more money in the pot but a big bet could force a fold. Easily overvaluing a pair higher than a 7x too. Not a horrible spot to bluff either trying to rep jx+. Tough bet to call without beating 7x and maybe without Jx

    River ($290): :KC:
    SB bets $150
    70.3% of previous 179.8 Combos
    RANGE:TT-88,33,A7o,K7o,Q7o,J9o-J8o,J6o-J2o,T7o,97o,87o,76o-72o,A7s,K7s,Q7s,J9s-J8s,J6s-J4s,J2s,T7s,97s,87s,76s-72s,Ah3h,KhQh,KhTh,Kh9h,Kh8h,Kh6h,Kh5h,Kh4h,Kh3h,Kh2h,Qh3h,Th3h,9h3h,8h3h,6h3h,5h3h,4h3h,3h2h


    River range: TT,AhKh,KhQh,JsTd,JsTh,JsTc,Js9d,Js9h,Js8d,Js8h,Js8c,KhTh,QhTh,Kh9h,Qh9h,Kh8h,Qh8h,Kh6h,Qh6h,Kh5h,Kh4h,Kh3h,Kh2h (27, 37.8%)
    With nearly 300 in the pot and Hero only having slightly more this bet does seem weak. Pretty obvious hero has at least Jx and all but never going to fold. But the half pot bet does get V to showdown cheaply if it keeps hero from shoving. Not likely a total bluff like a missed draw but more likely a hand that beats 7x.

    Should you fold? NO
    Call or go all in? Should shove but would likely call...
  • Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 24 ✭✭
    Hand 15
    Preflop: The predictable weak TAG in the CO opens for 5 BB and is likely not stealing due to SB’s never fold reputation. I put the CO on 15% (181 combos) AA-22,AKo-AJo,KQo-KJo,QJo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s. I call, SB calls, for a three-way pot.
    SB would have 3B AQ and TT but not KTs out of position. SB is on a 45% range (552 combos) AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K7o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o,87o,76o,65o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s.
    Flop :Jd :Jh :7h
    I now have the winning hand most of the time but I’m worried about getting out flopped by a flush. SB bets 2/3s pot CO folds. SB would have made this lead with any Jx, fd of 87+, 88+ and 7x. He definetly proceeds with his higher heat suited cards, 69% of previous range (55 combos) AA-QQ,77,AJo,KJo,QJo,JTo-J9o,AhKh,AhQh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,KhQh,KhTh,Kh9h,Kh8h,QhTh,Qh9h,Qh8h,Th9h,Th8h,9h8h.
    I raise to $60 which is 3Xhis bet but he still calls. He would have not raise (slow played) Jx but not fd or air. I keep him on the same range.
    Turn :3s
    The 3s likely did not help him but his ½ pot bet is a possible value bet for a full house but not a fd. He could have 77 or J7 or Jx but he’s not leading with a flush draw or over pairs. 100 % (55 combos) AA-QQ,77,AJo,KJo,QJo,JTo-J9o,AJs,KJs,QJs,JTs-J8s,AhKh,AhQh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah6h,Ah5h,KhQh,KhTh,Kh9h,Kh8h,QhTh,Qh9h,Qh8h,Th9h,Th8h,9h8h
    River :Kc
    I call because it leaves me with 70 BB and I don’t really know what is going on at this point but I suspect a full house from J7 or J3 or KJ.

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