Folding AA on the flop when facing an over bet?

Lisa SimpsonLisa Simpson Red Chipper Posts: 8
edited January 2017 in Live Poker Hands
It was 1-2GBP NLH at Hippodrome Casino, London. One player was very active pre and played very good post flop IMO. All other players was tight passive. Opponent opened the pot with a 12 bet. I re-raised to 30 with :Ah:Ad , it was folded around and he called. Flopped was :3d:5d:9d . Opponent bet 300. First time he made such an over bet and it got me thinking.... he said "oh, I mis calculated the pot". We had been playing at the same table for two hours and we both was deep stacked. I had approx 1000 and he approx 700 at start of this hand.

I did reraised him AI and he called. He had :3s:3h and floped tripps. Turn and river did not helped me and I lost the pot.

I did not think he mis calulated the pot. The big overbet made me think he had KK, QQ, JJ, TT with a diamond - at least I hoped for that when I continued.

Was it a terrible play by me when reraising AI? I don´t think calling was a good option. Best play was probably to fold, or?

I do guess opponent put me on a hand I had, AA, KK or QQ when he called pre flop. So in that perspective, his over bet on the flop was a good play from his part, or...?


  • tagliustaglius Red Chipper Posts: 290 ✭✭
    I think this is ok. You are correct that villain can probably have a worse overpair with a diamond also, and in these cases you have him crushed.

    I would make your 3bet bigger, more like $35 than 30. Not because we want 33 to fold, just for more value.
  • rjevskiyrjevskiy Red Chipper Posts: 90 ✭✭
    I would for sure made 3-Bet like 40-45 pounds. Seems like he is loose player and would call it. On the Flop you have 35.6% equity against his set and you are getting 1.2 on a Flop to call (360 pot and to call is 300). You only invested 30 pounds into this and now risking 670 pounds. I am not sure I would call or raise. I would Fold. Dont forget, on the Flop you have 60 pound pot and SPR is 11.5 ( you did say he had like 700 pounds). This is very big SPR and I dont think top pair is strong enough for such large pot. You do have a draw to nut which adds to your equity. However, I myself would tend to put him on set.
    Here is other possible Equity against his possible ranges
    You have 62.7% against KK+,99,55,33,7h6h,6d4d,AcKd,AhKd,AsKd
    You have 73.8% against 99+,55,33,KdQd,QdJd,JdTd,87s,76s,64s,AcKd,AhKd,AsKd

    I would say it would all depend on your read on him if he is able to semi-bluff or simply does understand that you have QQ+ and trying to get you stockup
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,300 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Please don't post results in the hand history; it biases the opinion. I had a long post in response but discarded it.
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,069 -
    Your stack off looks fine. Like you said, there are combos of pair+diamond that you think he may take this line with and there are only 9 combos of sets (and even against a set we have a sweet chunk of equity).

    +1 to everyone else would makes the preflop 3bet larger strictly for value =)
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  • goodtimesgoodtimes Red Chipper Posts: 61
    You two were pretty deep - whats your 3bet range look like usually here?

    more importantly how does villain view it?

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