Deep stack overpair

Big OwlBig Owl Red Chipper Posts: 170
edited January 2017 in Live Poker Hands
Trying to get a general understanding of these type of situations. 2/5 game at Aria, and I have around $950. Villain just moved to table couple hands ago so don't have reads other than he has me covered and is around 30. V limps UTG two more limpers I raise in sb to 35 with :Ah :Ad . All three limpers call.
Flop 140
:Kh :6h :4c I lead 100 UTG calls everyone else folds.
Turn 340. :Jd I lead 220. He calls

River 780. :Tc This is where I get a little lost. this board is pretty connected but problem is the same even if board isn't. I start feeling like v is slow playing big hands and if I bet river I'm pretty much committed to get it in. What do you guys do here?

Comments

  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    There is something missing from every street here that is adding up to confusion on the river: what could your opponent have? What are you targeting your bets at?

    Skipping all the deductions i might make in your shoes, i would arrive at a small value bet/fold, looking for a call from a few combinations of kx, specifically kq. My bet will be protected, because it will not look like i can fold, in case my fear of a limp/called set is legitimate, as odd as it would be on that board.
  • cmcneillycmcneilly Red Chipper Posts: 5
    I'm thinking a check/call is best. You don't want to bet and have him shove, but I think you are ahead more than half the time here. Plenty of AK and KQ hands in his range. You hate KJ, K10, but I'm not sure he would call a raise pre-flop with K10. I don't see many busted flush draws since you have the A and the K is on the board.

    This is probably one of those times where good players would say 'thin river bet', but I would be too afraid of a knucklehead thinking his TPTK are good and shoving over top of me.
  • Ed MillerEd Miller RCP Coach Posts: 330
    If you bet river you are ABSOLUTELY NOT committed to getting it in. This is the primary flaw in your thought process. When he raises the river, how often is AA good?
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    But we are betting correct Ed?
  • Ed MillerEd Miller RCP Coach Posts: 330
    But we are betting correct Ed?

    Yeah probably, but not like pot-sized or anything. You're basically trying to get AK or KQ to call. If I thought it were likely the player slowplayed the turn, then it might be a check. But on this board in a pot this size, that's fairly unlikely, and I like a bet/fold line here against your typical Aria $2-$5 rec player.

    You're going to be looking at hearts a fair bit... and b/c you hold :Ah there's a good chance when he calls the $220 on the turn that he's got a combo hand... :Qh :Jh , :Qh :Th , :Jh :Th :Qh :9h , :Jh :9h, :Th :9h . Problem with these hands is that they either don't call the river, or they drew out. But there's only a few combos... there's 6 combos of AK and 12 of KQ. In this game, there's a decent chance KT folds the turn for $220.

    If these assumptions are wrong and the player is significantly looser than this... then that's fine b/c now you can get river calls from Kx.
  • Ed MillerEd Miller RCP Coach Posts: 330
    If there were a legit chance to induce a bluff from busted hearts or from someone turning a jack or ten into a bluff... checking has more merit. I would not assume an unknown in Aria $2-$5 would make these plays often after this action however.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    Do you agree that merging here falls into the category of protecting our future bluffs as well as avoiding Hero making mistakes?
    Essentially it's OK that we expect a high number of folds.
  • Ed MillerEd Miller RCP Coach Posts: 330
    Do you agree that merging here falls into the category of protecting our future bluffs as well as avoiding Hero making mistakes?
    Essentially it's OK that we expect a high number of folds.

    This bet is good to the extent that KQ hates himself on the river. I'm not worried about busted hands folding out... I think KQ squirms at $2-$5 here even if you never bluff (though obv he should just fold KQ if he can figure out you aren't bluffing... $2-$5 players don't get there often) ... but yeah the turn kinda caps your opponent's range with these stacks and this board, which means that you should be able to bet a lot of hands on the river and cause pain.
  • Big OwlBig Owl Red Chipper Posts: 170
    So what do you feel is a good bet size with a 780 pot and 600 behind? Are we making a small bet of like 250 and folding to shove? Which means we put in 600 of 900 and then fold? I've always been an advocate of being less pot committed in live games since large bluffs are way less common.
    Also do our thoughts change if the river is :5c so even fewer draws are possible?
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    I'm starting to think the bet is too thin and we perform better by C/C his brick draws.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    Big Owl,

    If it's a 5c River I'm stacking off.
  • Big OwlBig Owl Red Chipper Posts: 170
    If we decide to check/call are we elastic or are we calling any size? We are kind of in a guessing game as the size gets bigger. He might bet 200-300 with a king, but it's very polarized if he just puts us in, and since most rec players don't bluff very often for that large I would lean to a fold.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Things to consider for a c/c or c/f line: Many players will not value bet a naked K, even a good one, so if you check here, you miss that value at least half the time, especially since he has more KQ than Ak; and not all will shove with two pair, but bet smaller for value as your hand now looks like one pair at best if you check, and which may trouble you if you face a $400 bet. Another discount to make is that many will not shove their broken draw as AK is clearly in your range even when you check, and simply give up.

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