TT 3-Way OOP Q55 vs BTN

MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 975 ✭✭✭
edited July 2016 in Live Poker Hands
Villain is fishy-maniac who plays a bit tighter/solid/ABC against me usually due to history, but often has a marginal range here when given greenlight otf. Check/call seems obvious on flop, but is our hand strong enough to CC 2-3 streets maybe for stacks? He will barrel off w/missed flush draws and turn pairs into bluffs sometimes ott and otr. Thoughts? Effective stacks are about 85BBe.

Hero: :Td :Ts

Hero (UTG) raises 5x, UTG+1 calls (A-Fish), Villain (BTN) calls.

Flop :Qs :5d :5s (15BB)

Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, Villain bets 13BB, Hero ???

Turn ??? River ???

Comments

  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 975 ✭✭✭
    edited July 2016
    Spoiler below, but as always prefer unprejudiced feedback:
    Hero folded not thinking his hand value could withstand 2-3 streets of aggression. With Qx Hero would not be folding most run outs.
  • EazzyEazzy Red Chipper Posts: 582 ✭✭✭
    For the most part against bad lews agro players this is the nuts and you check call it down...

    Its the same reason you ISO bad agro with hands like k9o rather then A3s....you want hands that can flop 2nd pair good kicker, because these are kind of the nuts against these players....

    Of course how aggro he is...may make differences....
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 975 ✭✭✭
    edited July 2016
    Eazzy wrote: »
    For the most part against bad lews agro players this is the nuts and you check call it down...

    Its the same reason you ISO bad agro with hands like k9o rather then A3s....you want hands that can flop 2nd pair good kicker, because these are kind of the nuts against these players....

    Of course how aggro he is...may make differences....

    I'm leaning in that direction. Ive ballparked about 43% equity over all streets. But to be fair there is no traditional "3rd pair" here, so TT is weaker than your usual "2nd pair" on an unpaired board vs a wide range.
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 975 ✭✭✭
    Also if the FD hits and he keeps betting are we more inclined to call down or give up (he merges quite a bit)?
  • David Kimweli Jr.David Kimweli Jr. Red Chipper Posts: 161
    Villian's near pot-sized bet on the Q-5-5 flop appears like an attempt to fold you and UTG + 1 out of the pot. I'm not sure why he would bet that strongly with QJ or QT, Qxs. You also have back-door flush draw equity so I would call the turn on most cards (even spades) and probably call the river depending on the stack sizes.
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 975 ✭✭✭
    edited July 2016
    Villian's near pot-sized bet on the Q-5-5 flop appears like an attempt to fold you and UTG + 1 out of the pot. I'm not sure why he would bet that strongly with QJ or QT, Qxs. You also have back-door flush draw equity so I would call the turn on most cards (even spades) and probably call the river depending on the stack sizes.

    Points taken, but IMO he doesn't understand showdown value in many spots and uses wrong bet sizing often, so Qx is in there more than you'd think.

    Also let's assume no backdoor flush. That could be a memory error on my part.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 2,514 ✭✭✭✭
    I think its call once and give up. I often use villains bet sizing in my games with a wide range on the btn when checked to.

    For example you raise $10 two callers
    Flop ($30) Qs5d5s
    Two checks
    Villain bets $25
    *i usually go with $20 here on this board but if one of the 5s was a 6s ill go 25.

    Range: 7d6d, 8d7d, 22-JJ, AdXd, 7s6s-AsJs
    Those are my bluffs
    Value A5s, QJs, KQs, AQo\s, 55, QTs (some times)

    When i put "s" i just mean suited not spades. Can figure out the combos later.

    Definitely a lot more bluffs on the flop in my range than value. There are not many QX hands in my range that are off suite besides AQ. I tend to fold most Qx hands.
    Typical 10% calling range preflop.

    I think bigger bets on the flop are pretty common in low stakes..turn and river bets get extremely small. People just think well i bet $20 on the flop i should bet a little bigger so now they do 25-30. Into a pot of like 70-80.

    Call once and be done i think..
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 975 ✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    I think its call once and give up. I often use villains bet sizing in my games with a wide range on the btn when checked to.

    For example you raise $10 two callers
    Flop ($30) Qs5d5s
    Two checks
    Villain bets $25
    *i usually go with $20 here on this board but if one of the 5s was a 6s ill go 25.

    Range: 7d6d, 8d7d, 22-JJ, AdXd, 7s6s-AsJs
    Those are my bluffs
    Value A5s, QJs, KQs, AQo\s, 55, QTs (some times)

    When i put "s" i just mean suited not spades. Can figure out the combos later.

    Definitely a lot more bluffs on the flop in my range than value. There are not many QX hands in my range that are off suite besides AQ. I tend to fold most Qx hands.
    Typical 10% calling range preflop.

    I think bigger bets on the flop are pretty common in low stakes..turn and river bets get extremely small. People just think well i bet $20 on the flop i should bet a little bigger so now they do 25-30. Into a pot of like 70-80.

    Call once and be done i think..

    If we check-call flop/give-up turn, aren't we just letting a barrel monkey rob us blind? Why not just fold flop and find a better call down spot (QQ5ss Q65ss etc.)?
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Call once and be done i think..
    This seems like a donation and not a plan to me.
  • JesseJesse Red Chipper Posts: 133
    @Monad any read on UTG+1? Is he the type that would always bet a Q and almost always c/fold a missed hand in this spot? If you fold the flop, does he call with 66?

    I'm just trying to gauge villain's relative willingness to just take a shot on the flop with any two given that there is a fishy 3rd player in the pot.

    @David Kimweli Jr. Some villains will bet ~pot sized to "charge the flush draws" when they hit top pair. They're not thinking about how to maximize value - instead they're looking to lock up a win with the side benefit of possibly getting someone to pay the maximum for the chance to "get there".

    You have the Ts in your hand, so I'm thinking you're blocking a lot of flush draws. He can have:
    AK (no 3bet?), AJ, A9-6,A4-2 (does he call with all these)
    KJ, K9(?)
    J9, 98,87, 76
    Maybe 13 flush draw combos?

    There are a lot of hands with Qx in em: AQ, KQ, QJ, QT(?)
    and maybe a 65 or A5s if he's playing those as well.

    Maybe some worse pairs betting for protection:
    99-66

    I'm thinking he has a bunch of bluffs that can continue to barrel and also a lot of Qx combos to back em up. I'm inclined to fold unless you think he's way crazier than I've imagined and want to grit your teeth and just call down.
  • La OnzaLa Onza Red Chipper Posts: 41 ✭✭
    Is V the kind of fishy-maniac who knows can find the fold button? If so, why not consider a flop check raise? You have equity with bdfd and 2nd pair to fall back on if called. I think that you can get better 2nd pairs, FDs, and weak Qx to fold out.

    Of course, if you have no fold equity with a raise, there's no point in it since you'd just be bloating the pot