Hand #17

dmansendmansen Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
This hand changes a lot depending on how V plays flush draws + do they slowplay monsters. River could be a call or fold imo.

1/2
EP2 Boring TAG limps
Hero ℅ raises $15 KhKc
EP2 calls
Range: 88-22,AQo,KQo,AJs-A6s,KJs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,[50]A5s-A2s[/50]
140 combos
11.4% of preflop range

EP2 should be limping tight here (TAG), and calling that whole range

Flop: :6d :4s :4d

EP2 checks, Hero bets $15 into $30, EP2 raises to $45
Range: 88-66,44,A4s,54s,AdJd,AdTd,Ad8d,Ad7d,KdJd,KdTd,QdJd,QdTd,JdTd,Td8d,8d7d,[50]Ad9d,Ad6d,Ad5d,Ad3d,Ad2d,Jd9d,Td9d,9d8d,7d6d,6d5d[/50]
38.5 combos
27.5% of preflop range

77? Yes, they could check-raise to protect against overcards
Flush draws? Yes, boring TAGs always check-raise
Boats Or Quads? More likely to slowplay those but I left them in

Hero calls

Turn: :9s

EP bets $60 into $120
Range: 66,44,A4s,54s,AdJd,AdTd,Ad8d,Ad7d,KdJd,KdTd,QdJd,QdTd,JdTd,Td8d,8d7d,[50]Ad9d,Ad6d,Ad5d,Ad3d,Ad2d,Jd9d,Td9d,9d8d,7d6d,6d5d[/50]
22.5 combos
58.4% of flop check-raise range

Identical range from turn minus 77 and 88. Good stack size for setting up a river shove.

Missed flush draws? Lead
Bluffs? Lead
Boats or quads? Lead to get stacks in

Hero calls

River: :Jh

EP2 shoves for $150 into $240
Range: 66,44,A4s,54s,Ad8d,Ad7d,Td8d,8d7d,[50]Ad9d,KdJd,QdJd,Jd9d,Td9d,9d8d,7d6d,6d5d[/50],[25]Ad6d,Ad5d,Ad3d,Ad2d[/25]
15.75 combos
70% of turn lead range

Boats or Quads? Shove
Air? Shove worse air, like 8-high flush draws

Would you call $150 more? We have 50% equity, we should be calling.

Comments

  • OutlierOutlier Red Chipper Posts: 143 ✭✭
    1/2
    EP2 Boring TAG limps
    Hero raises to $15 with KhKc
    EP2 calls
    VILLAIN PREFLOP LIMP-CALLING RANGE: 14%, 172 combos

    wwfx0mmwqpiv.png

    I'm reading a fair amount into the comment that villain has noticed we are iso-raising. I think his range includes all hands he wants to play, but not for big money until he sees a flop. Not sophisticated enough to limp call big pairs here.

    Flop: :6d :4s :4d

    EP2 checks, Hero bets $15 into $30, EP2 raises to $45

    VILLAIN FLOP CHECK-RAISING RANGE: 18%, 41 combos

    9d80p7qxzjcz.png


    77? Yes, they could check-raise to protect against overcards
    Flush draws? Yes, but only nut flush draws
    Boats Or Quads? Call to trap the "aggro" guy.
    Hero calls

    Turn: :9s

    EP bets $60 into $120
    VILLAIN TURN BETTING RANGE: 57%, 20 combos

    55ph2cr84g9a.png


    Identical range from turn minus TT and JJ--he would have pounded the turn with these to protect against flush draws. He's betting 77 and 88 to charge flush draws, but doesn't want to commit big money with them. He's betting his flush draws to give himself a price.

    Missed flush draws? Lead
    Bluffs? I have no bluffs for him except AsKs, which he leads.
    Boats or quads? Not in his range

    Hero calls

    River: :Jh

    EP2 shoves for $150 into $240
    VILLAIN RIVER SHOVE RANGE: 100%, 20 combos--same as on turn

    Boats or Quads? Not in range
    Air? Shoves. Frustrated that he didn't hit vs the aggro guy

    Would you call $150 more? I need only 27% equity, so easy call vs a range with which I'm 100%!

    Getting to the river with 100% equity is not realistic, so I went back to the flop and added all trips he has (A4s), all full houses, and even quads, plus the boats he picks up on the turn and river (99 and JJ). Even vs this range, I'm still 33%, so it's still a call. I think 33% is the bottom end of my equity, as I have villain check-raising only his nut flush draws on the flop--if he check-raises a higher percentage of his flush draws and shoves them on the river, my equity skyrockets.
  • OutlierOutlier Red Chipper Posts: 143 ✭✭
    @dmansen, I like you left all his quads and full houses in villain's range on this analysis. I do have a question for you on his turn range: what's your justification for removing 77 and 88, but leaving in TT-JJ for his single pairs with which he check-raised the flop? The $60 bet into $120 doesn't seem very strong, and I thought he would pound the turn with JJ and TT to protect vs flush draws.
  • Mike VMike V Red Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
    edited September 2016
    I went through this exercise and came to the same numbers that everyone else did, but my question is this.

    Why wouldn't I just fold here when I get re-raised on the flop? This guy has been very passive. He's limp-calling and only showing down one hand in a couple of hours. His flop folding frequency is too wide, so when he check raises it seems like A4 suited or possibly even a nutted hand. The chances of catching him here with anything that doesn't have us beat is slim.

    For the purpose of this exercise, I know you have us calling, but in the real world, would you fold after the check raise? Is so, why? If not, why not?
  • dmansendmansen Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
    @Outlier - I left those out of villain's preflop limping range because I assumed they'd open TT+. I could definitely see an argument for leaving them in
  • Aka DubsAka Dubs Red Chipper Posts: 33 ✭✭
    I have to agree with mike v. I ran the numbers a few different ways, and although its a profitable spot on paper, a lot comes down to how they play their fd's.

    from the description of "boring tag" I got old man or asian women (I play live in vegas and thats the pic i get of them) these types are not really getting out of line with fd's unless they have shown it before, I would just fold the flop and look for a better spot. I don't think we are really being exploited here enough to worry about it.

    But I have come back to this hand a few times wondering if I am giving up value.
  • NuttedNutterNuttedNutter Red Chipper Posts: 44
    HAND #17

    VILLAIN BORING TAG EP2 LIMP CALL RANGE: JJ-22,AJo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s,76s,65s

    %FORM: 18.8%
    COMBOS#: 230

    :6d :4s :4d

    Would EP2 Boring Tag l/c then c-r flop w/...

    77? No I don't believe so. I believe he'd do it w/ something a bit stronger a better overpair perhaps like 88 or 99-JJ. We've seen him go to SD w/ 77. While he's out of position and has an overpair to the board I'd say that he'd think 77 is just a bit too weak to protect w/ c-r even though he's likely aware of the fact that I've been isolating limpers somewhat wide and thinks I likely whiffed this flop w/ QT or something. I think he still thinks that perhaps c-calling w/ intention to float and bet a lot of turns is a safer and more conservative play w/ 77.

    Flush Draws? Yes. I believe w/ this specific hu dynamic, the board texture and position he likely sees this as a profitable play to c-r since he likely knows I'm cbetting as a bluff here w/ a decently wide CO range. I think he'd be the type of player to like bluffing w/ some equity and potential to make the nutflush and 2nd nutflush and so he likely thinks he has enough FE to make the play.

    Boat or Quads? No I think he'd c-call at least one street and possibly make this play on the turn. On the flop though assuming since we think he's at least somewhat of a thinking player and we assume he knows I've been isolating limpers a bit wide then he knows I'm going to cbet as a bluff w/ a large % of my range w/ this dynamic and board texture.

    VILLAIN RANGE: JJ-77,A6s,A4s,76s,65s,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad5d,Ad3d,Ad2d,KdQd,KdJd,KdTd,Kd9d,QdJd,QdTd,Qd9d,JdTd,Jd9d,Td9d,Td8d,9d8d,8d7d

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 28.6%
    COMBOS#: 62

    :9s

    What would EP2 bet $60 w/ and would would he do w/..

    Missed Flush Draws? Yes I'd say a 1/2 psb would be indicative of a missed FD. If he were value betting 9's full I think he'd like betting bigger here closer to pot. Likely same logic w/ a hand like A4s, TT-JJ he would want to build a bigger pot w/ a value hand. He'd bet a miss draw this way yes.

    Bluffs? I don't believe he would just bluff w/ absolute complete air. As mentioned I believe this type of player likes bluffing w/ at least some equity. In this case there are plenty of 9's that just turned tp+fd, a hand like Ad9d he certainly bets, being that he could still be beat to my overpairs I think he is more likely to shape his bluffs this way. I don't believe he turns hands like mid pair A6s, 76s, 65s or Ace high into bluffs though.

    Boat or Quads? No. Firstly, I don't believe he even has quad 4's or 6's full as I don't believe he'd c-r flop w/ them. I think w/ a hand like 9's full he'd bet much larger as opportunity to get stacks in shrinks up.

    VILLAIN RANGE: K9s,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,As6s,Ad5d,Ad3d,Ad2d,KdQd,KdJd,KdTd,QdJd,QdTd,Qd9d,JdTd,Jd9d,Td9d,Td8d,9d8d,8d7d,7s6s,6s5s

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 40.7%
    COMBOS#: 24

    R: :Jh

    Boat or quads? I don't think he shows up on the riv w/ boats or quads as I thought he wouldn't play flopped boats or quads on the flop the way he did. I also don't think 99-TT would play turn as he did. If he did happen to play it the way he did betting small on the turn then I suppose some small % of the time he could possibly play the riv like this w/ 9's full or J's full but I just think it is more likely he bets more on the turn w/ those hands. So I just don't think he has those hands here that often.

    Air? I think w/ missed flush draws he jams as there's no other way to win the pot hu. I think it's most likely he shows up w/ a hand like Ad9d.

    VILLAIN RANGE: K9s,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,As6s,Ad5d,Ad3d,Ad2d,KdQd,KdJd,KdTd,QdJd,QdTd,Qd9d,JdTd,Jd9d,Td9d,Td8d,9d8d,8d7d,7s6s,6s5s

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 41.7%
    COMBOS#: 10

    Call $150 More? Yes. I'd need 27.7% equity to make the call and against his range I have 100% equity. Moreover, hypothetically it seems even if I reverse the hand and add back in monsters (66, 44, A4s, 99, JJ) and merge it w/ the same range I thought he'd bluff shove riv w/, even then I still have 70ish% equity so I think it is a clear call..















  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,281 ✭✭✭✭
    edited January 2017
    Hi everybody,
    I've just been through this hand, and got very different results from you. Mostly because a) I think Villain would limp-call a much wider range. Even TT or JJ sometimes, because he is EP. B) I picture a boring TAG playing kinda ABC Poker (fold with air, bet for value and some bluffs in-between).

    PREFLOP
    As said, I think Villain call limp-call with a broad range of playable-but-not-great hands. He also has the advantage to close the action, which help to call with marginal hands (no danger of a raise).
    g239d0t370id.png

    36,2% for 443 combos

    FLOP
    :6D: :4S: :4D:
    Villain check-raise. I think he can do that with:
    - some monster hands (50% donkbet, 50% C-R);
    - all overpairs (as value and protection, if he think we would C-Bet often with overcards)
    - FD: only if looking for nutflush (AdXd and KdXd), if 2 broadway :DIAMOND: or if with some other equity (OESD/gutshot)
    I also think he might do it sometimes (10%) with total air as pur bluff.

    Range: 50% set or better (value); 50% overpairs (semi-bluff); 10% no made hands, good FD (bluff).
    ol64tb7rlz1c.png
    16% of previous range, 64,4 combos (on 406)

    TURN
    :9S:
    Villain leads.
    First of all, it's hard to say if 60$ i.e. 50% bet is a tell. We need to know him more. I would say it's not a tell and he is just used to almost automatically bet 50% of the pot.

    Then if he C-R (flop) for bluff and we call, I see him more on check-fold. He would lead only for value or if he has a very good equity. So:
    - Leads missed FD ? Only if with OESD, gutshot or Xd9d
    - bluff? Check-fold; he might eventually try to bluff us, but I think it would be a bigger bet (to make it harder to call)
    - boat/quads. He would lead. 50% pot? Depends on him. He could bet automatically 50%, or look to bet small and give us a good price to call (which also lead to stack in on the river)

    k2voh710vdww.png

    32% of previous range; 19,6 combos

    RIVER
    :JH:
    This jack doesn't change much, but kills the :DIAMOND: FD. Villain leads all-in for 150$.
    Some of you think he would lead with busted FD. I might disagree: his stack is too small. It would be a very good price to call; plus it's not scary (150 into 240). Plus we called flop+turn, so we surely have better than overcards (=higher risks of being called). Finally, he is a boring TAG, not a good TAG (who might lead in such situation) or LAG.
    Without busted FD and middle pairs, he only has monster hands. Even if the price if very good, I don't see him having enough bluffs / leading with busted FD to make it +EV call (we are almost always busted) and I would always fold.


    EDIT:
    Re-reading my post, I think I was too tight with his preflop range (which in fact looks more like a 3-bet range). Nonetheless this don't really change the analysis, it only gives him only a little bit tighter C-R range on the flop (less overpairs and FD+overcards).
  • AcesaladAcesalad Red Chipper Posts: 240 ✭✭
    Every time EP2 has limped during this session, he has ended up limp-calling. You have been isolating limpers during this session, and chances are EP2 is noticing. Given that, what kind of range do you think EP2 limp-called with here?
    %-FORM 21.3% #Ccombos 282
    Villain's Range:
    QQ-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A7s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s,65s
    Flop:
    :6D: :4S: :4D:
    Think about the hands EP2 would limp-call with preflop. Would they check-raise this flop with:
    77? Yes
    Flush Draw? Yes
    Boats or Quads? No
    % of Previous Range 24.4% #Combos 66
    Villain's Range:
    QQ-77,86s,76s,65s,AdKd,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,KdQd,KdJd,KdTd,Kd9d,QdJd,QdTd,Qd9d,JdTd,Jd9d,Td9d,Td8d,9d8d,9d7d,8d7d
    Turn:
    :9S:
    There are two major considerations. First, does $60 indicate anything about their range? And what would EP2 do with:
    The $60 bet indicates some weakness. I think TAG's only make big Turn bets when they have a strong hand, especially out of position.
    Missed Flush Draw? Bet
    Bluffs? Bet
    Boats or Quads? Bet Large
    % of Previous Range 66.7% #Combos 42
    Villain's Range:
    QQ-TT,AdKd,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,KdQd,KdJd,KdTd,Kd9d,QdJd,QdTd,Qd9d,JdTd,Jd9d,Td9d,Td8d,9d8d,9d7d,8d7d,8s6s,7s6s,6s5s
    River:
    :JH:
    What do you think EP2 would do with these hand strengths:
    Boats or Quads? All In
    Air? Fold
    Would You Call $150 More? No, I don't think he is bluffing here.
  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 427 ✭✭✭
    1/2
    EP2 Boring TAG limps
    Hero ℅ raises $15 KhKc
    EP2 calls
    24.4% of preflop range 299 combos
    Range: AA-22,AKo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s
    Assuming he is noticing the isolations then he could limp even big hands and as it is heads up likely wouldn't even 3 bet AA just call to trap.

    Flop: :6d :4s :4D: EP2 checks, Hero bets $15 into $30, EP2 raises to $45
    29% of preflop range 84 combos
    Range: AA-77,A6s,A4s,86s,76s-75s,65s,54s,AdKd,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad5d,Ad3d,Ad2d,KdQd,KdJd,KdTd,Kd9d,QdJd,QdTd,Qd9d,JdTd,Jd9d,Td9d,Td8d,9d8d,9d7d,8d7d
    With Hero making half pot bet seems like a standard Cbet on a hard board to hit. Would not raise Full house + ..tougher question is does he reraise trips but since so few combos for this not making it a factor. Yes reraise overpairs, tp and all draws.

    Hero calls

    Turn: :9S:
    EP bets $60 into $120
    100% of flop check-raise range 84 combos
    Range: AA-77,A6s,A4s,86s,76s-75s,65s,54s,AdKd,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad5d,Ad3d,Ad2d,KdQd,KdJd,KdTd,Kd9d,QdJd,QdTd,Qd9d,JdTd,Jd9d,Td9d,Td8d,9d8d,9d7d,8d7d
    .
    A portion of his range doesn't like that we called the reraise. He would bet all his range as he did reraise the flop and doesn't want to get bluffed off draws on the turn. Also the 9 doesn't hit any broadways we may have floated with.

    Hero calls

    River: :Jh
    100% of turn lead range 84 combos
    EP2 shoves for $150 into $240
    Range: AA-77,A6s,A4s,86s,76s-75s,65s,54s,AdKd,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad5d,Ad3d,Ad2d,KdQd,KdJd,KdTd,Kd9d,QdJd,QdTd,Qd9d,JdTd,Jd9d,Td9d,Td8d,9d8d,9d7d,8d7d


    He doesn't have quads. They would not have reraised flop. About 50% of his hands are value hands even though some are second best. And as all draws missed this is actually a good place to bluff too. I think he bets his whole range here as a lot of our range misses on the river too
    Yes a grudging call
  • bogata XLbogata XL Red Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
    This boring TAG didn't show any action in the last hours.
    His prf-limp-call-range I give him 160 combo's. AA, KK and AKs I exclude. Those hands we would probably raised after our iso.

    On the dry 2tone paired flop I put in his x/raise-bucket:
    FD's with a filter 50% (only the strong one's he will x/raise)= 13 combo's
    FH = 3combo's
    OP with a filter 50% = 18 combo's
    In total 34 combo's . 21,7% of his previous range.

    In the x/call bucket goes the Quad.

    Turn is a blank and his betsize is small, 1/2 pot.
    He has FH = 4.5 combo's
    TP 99 with A9s, T9s and 98s , I give 50%filter = 1.5 combo
    FD = 13 combo's , I give 50%filter

    Turnrange is 26.5 combo's. 81% of his previous range

    River is a blank and FD bust.
    He goes all in. This kind of passive player would not go all in with a busted FD and not with TP J. I put those hands in the check-bucket.

    In his all-in bucket I put 6 combo's FH:
    66 3combo's
    99 1.5 combo
    JJ 1.5 combo's (because I had the filter on 50%)

    3combo OP QQ

    In total 9 combo's. 34% of his turnrange.

    Flopzilla gives me 33% equity.
    The price that I have to pay is 150/540 = 28%

    Theoretically I can make the call.
    But versus this player that was inactive for a long time and then suddenly awakes, my gut says that my hand is not strong enough and I fold.

    Preflop he started with 160 combo's
    On the river he has 9 combo's left.
    This is 5,6%.

  • Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 24 ✭✭
    Hand 17
    Preflop: EP2 wants to slow me down on isolation bets, but he is a boring TAG who usually waits for a monster hand but was exasperated enough at one point to showdown with 77. Perhaps he is at that point again and limp-calls hoping for a draw. I have position on him. I put him on a range of 22% (264 combos) TT-22,AJo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s. I do not put him on any premium hands because I feel he would have bet more than the minimum. He may be boring, but he is also aggressive.
    Flop :6d :4s :4d
    When he check-raises me by 3x, it is not a full house, he would not be playing with a 6 and a 4 so I think maybe quad 4s or trip 6s. I put him on 24% of his previous range (60 combos) TT-77,44,86s,76s-75s,65s,54s,AdKd,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,KdQd,KdJd,KdTd,Kd9d,QdJd,QdTd,Qd9d,JdTd,Jd9d,Td9d,Td8d,9d8d,9d7d,8d7d
    Turn :9s
    A half pot bet indicates a CB where he did not improve, so he has the same hand as post flop. Missed flush draws CB, bluffs are CB and quads are CB. His range is 68% of previous (39 combos) TT-99,44,K9s,75s,54s,AdKd,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,KdQd,KdJd,KdTd,QdJd,QdTd,Qd9d,JdTd,Jd9d,Td9d,Td8d,9d8d,9d7d,8d7d,8s6s,7s6s,6s5s.
    River :Jh
    His all-in is either pure bluff (not likely), or at bare minimum, he has two pairs but probably trips or quads.
    I would call and get ready to re-buy. My hand has 45% equity, and the pot odds are 38%.
    His range is 28% (11 combos) 99,44,54s,AdJd,KdJd,QdJd,JdTd,Jd9d

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