Hand #18
dmansen
Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
Interesting spot on the river. Answer depends on how often MP1 turns fds into bluffs / how he sizes river value bets. At 1/2 this big bet looks bluffy to me.
MP1 PREFLOP CALL: RANGE (18.2% of preflop range)(223 combos)
JJ-22,AQo-AJo,KQo,QJo,JTo,T9o,AQs-A4s,KQs-K9s,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,[50]AKo,ATo,KJo,QTo[/50]
Discount AKo for 3bets, offsuit broadways 50% because he’ll fold those sometimes.
JJ, AK? Mostly call but 3bet AK 50%.
SB PREFLOP CALL: RANGE (4.04% of preflop range)(49.5 combos)
QQ-TT,AKo,AKs,[50]AA-KK,99-66[/50]
TT+? Flat TT-QQ, 3bet KK-AA 50%
AK? Call always
A5s? Fold
BB PREFLOP CALL: RANGE (51.5% of preflop range)(631 combos)
99-22,AQo-A2o,KQo-K6o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o-97o,87o-86o,76o-75o,65o-64o,54o,AQs-A2s,KQs-K3s,QJs-Q5s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T6s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-74s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s-42s,32s,[50]JJ-TT[/50]
These players love to call with anything when they’re “priced in”
TT+? 3bet 50% TT-JJ, 100%QQ-AA (little 3betting at this table)
Ace Queen? Call
Suited gappers? Call
FLOP CALL: RANGE (65%-of previous range)(143.75 combos)
88-66,33,A5s-A4s,87s,76s,65s,[50]55-44,22,AQo-AJo,KQo,QJo,JTo,T9o[/50],[75]JJ-99,AQs-A6s,KQs-K9s,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s[/75],[25]AKo,ATo,KJo,QTo[/25]
66+? Discount some combos cause people love to raise to protect against AK
Flush draws? Call like 50% of the time
Ace Jack? Bet 50%
TURN CHECK: RANGE (47.9%-of flop call range)(66 combos)
33,[50]AJo,KQo,QJo,JTo,T9o,AhQh,AdQd,AhJh,AdJd,AhTh,AdTd,Ah9h,Ad9d,Ah8h,Ad8d,Ah7h,Ad7d,Ah6h,Ad6d,Ah4h,Ad4d,KhQh,KdQd,KhJh,KdJd,KhTh,KdTd,Kh9h,Kd9d,QhJh,QdJd,QhTh,QdTd,JhTh,JdTd,Jh9h,Jd9d,Th9h,Td9d,9h8h,9d8d,8h7h,8d7d,7h6h,7d6d[/50],[25]99-66,AKo-AQo,ATo,KJo,QTo[/25]
Any 5? Bet it
Flush draws? Bet most
Overcards? Bet half
RIVER: RANGE (54.2%-of previous range)(31.25 combos)
33,[50]AJo,AhQh,AdQd,AhJh,AdJd,Ah4h,Ad4d,Th9h,Td9d,9h8h,9d8d,8h7h,8d7d,7h6h,7d6d[/50],[25]AKo-AQo,QJo-QTo,JTo,T9o,KhQh,KdQd,KhJh,KdJd,KhTh,KdTd,Kh9h,Kd9d,QhJh,QdJd,QhTh,QdTd,JhTh,JdTd,Jh9h,Jd9d[/25]
AX? Would check many of these, and would bet less than this large bet
KsTs? Bluff 50%
I removed a LOT of aces from his range with this sizing. If this is right, it’s a call, but we expect to lose a lot of the time with 50% equity.
MP1 PREFLOP CALL: RANGE (18.2% of preflop range)(223 combos)
JJ-22,AQo-AJo,KQo,QJo,JTo,T9o,AQs-A4s,KQs-K9s,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,[50]AKo,ATo,KJo,QTo[/50]
Discount AKo for 3bets, offsuit broadways 50% because he’ll fold those sometimes.
JJ, AK? Mostly call but 3bet AK 50%.
SB PREFLOP CALL: RANGE (4.04% of preflop range)(49.5 combos)
QQ-TT,AKo,AKs,[50]AA-KK,99-66[/50]
TT+? Flat TT-QQ, 3bet KK-AA 50%
AK? Call always
A5s? Fold
BB PREFLOP CALL: RANGE (51.5% of preflop range)(631 combos)
99-22,AQo-A2o,KQo-K6o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o-97o,87o-86o,76o-75o,65o-64o,54o,AQs-A2s,KQs-K3s,QJs-Q5s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T6s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-74s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s-42s,32s,[50]JJ-TT[/50]
These players love to call with anything when they’re “priced in”
TT+? 3bet 50% TT-JJ, 100%QQ-AA (little 3betting at this table)
Ace Queen? Call
Suited gappers? Call
FLOP CALL: RANGE (65%-of previous range)(143.75 combos)
88-66,33,A5s-A4s,87s,76s,65s,[50]55-44,22,AQo-AJo,KQo,QJo,JTo,T9o[/50],[75]JJ-99,AQs-A6s,KQs-K9s,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s[/75],[25]AKo,ATo,KJo,QTo[/25]
66+? Discount some combos cause people love to raise to protect against AK
Flush draws? Call like 50% of the time
Ace Jack? Bet 50%
TURN CHECK: RANGE (47.9%-of flop call range)(66 combos)
33,[50]AJo,KQo,QJo,JTo,T9o,AhQh,AdQd,AhJh,AdJd,AhTh,AdTd,Ah9h,Ad9d,Ah8h,Ad8d,Ah7h,Ad7d,Ah6h,Ad6d,Ah4h,Ad4d,KhQh,KdQd,KhJh,KdJd,KhTh,KdTd,Kh9h,Kd9d,QhJh,QdJd,QhTh,QdTd,JhTh,JdTd,Jh9h,Jd9d,Th9h,Td9d,9h8h,9d8d,8h7h,8d7d,7h6h,7d6d[/50],[25]99-66,AKo-AQo,ATo,KJo,QTo[/25]
Any 5? Bet it
Flush draws? Bet most
Overcards? Bet half
RIVER: RANGE (54.2%-of previous range)(31.25 combos)
33,[50]AJo,AhQh,AdQd,AhJh,AdJd,Ah4h,Ad4d,Th9h,Td9d,9h8h,9d8d,8h7h,8d7d,7h6h,7d6d[/50],[25]AKo-AQo,QJo-QTo,JTo,T9o,KhQh,KdQd,KhJh,KdJd,KhTh,KdTd,Kh9h,Kd9d,QhJh,QdJd,QhTh,QdTd,JhTh,JdTd,Jh9h,Jd9d[/25]
AX? Would check many of these, and would bet less than this large bet
KsTs? Bluff 50%
I removed a LOT of aces from his range with this sizing. If this is right, it’s a call, but we expect to lose a lot of the time with 50% equity.
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Comments
The way I did this hand looked completely different, I really had no idea where to go with it so I'll be interested on anyone's thoughts.
MP1 UNKNOWN
9.7%
119 Combos
45s+, A5s +, 55-TT, prob AK too to get action from worse Aces. Figure that's possible in a game with such little betting pre.
SB NIT:
7.6% (how narrow do these guys start?)
TT+ raise
AK: raise
A5s- call
45s+, A5s, Ats, Ajs, Aqs, 22-88
BB
SPEWY LAG
20.4%
270 combos
22-77
50% 88-AA)
75% (45s --JTs) JQs-Aks
46s+
74s+
7ks+
8js-ajs (80%)
A2s+
Ak, QJ, JT
And I could have gone wider here I think
***FLOP***
I Cbet with my 99, he calls.
I'm assuming this guy is ony calling with some sort of hit so I had him on this range:
34.5% of prvious
39 combos
55,66
45s,56s,67s,a5s
78spade-kAspade
9jspade-QAspade
A6spade+
***TURN***
I check, He checks behind
I'm thinking he bets with any 5. I think most of his FD's check because it's cheaper to draw. I'd figure that Over cards would Check here too. Actually they'd probably bet to fold me out. IDK
70.6 % checks
67spade -KAspade
J9 spade
TQ spade
Jk SPADE
A6-AJ spade
***RIVER***
He's honestly pretty balanced here IMO, but most of those Aces in his range are betting to get calls from worse that thinks He's bluffing the river card, and I'd say at least a third of the time he's betting with a missed Flush Draw, strictly because we have shown weakness and he would be aware that we don't know him that well so FE could be higher
Does anyone have any comment on this, I really felt it tought to first of all range this guys opening in a multiway pot, and I think that was the toughest part. Also, is a guy ever checking the turn here with overcards? I guess that's not out rageous, then the Ace can hit him cheap on the end and I've been broken. What about FD bluffs on the end, do you think 1/3rd weight is fair here?
Really appreciate the feedback Tim. I think you're right that my BB flat range is too wide, I'm going to prune some of those hands and try it again. I'm leaning toward a fold on the end now, I think V could easily bet a single pair of aces this way.
IMO, this player will bet all busted FDs on the river - I'd go up to 2/3 weight. Except, I don't think this V has busted FDs often, he would raise flop or bet turn with those. I think V will check many overcard combos on the turn that floated flop, looking to realize his equity when V hits a pair.
MP1 PREFLOP CALL RANGE: (22% of preflop range)(264 combos)
I see very little 3-betting at $1/2, even with AK.
SB PREFLOP CALL RANGE: (12% of preflop range)(143 combos)
TT+? Flat TT-QQ, 3bet KK-AA
AK? Call always
A5s? Call since it's a draw to the nuts, though this may be a wide for a nit.
BB PREFLOP CALL RANGE: (59% of preflop range)(691 combos)
These players love to call with anything when they’re “priced in” +1
TT+? 3bet 50% AK, TT-AA
Ace Queen? Call
Suited gappers? Call
The LAGs I encounter at $1/2 tend to play that way postflop. They will open with a wide range and bet and raise postflop, but preflop, they will just call. Their aim is just to get into the pot with a wide range of holdings, and we've set that up for them with this action, so there's no need in their minds to 3-bet.
FLOP CALL RANGE: (39%-of previous range)(97combos)
66+? Call 66-88, raise 99-QQ
Flush draws? Call with most, raise with the strongest like AKss, 76ss, A2ss
Ace Jack? fold
TURN CHECK RANGE: (70%-of flop call range)(65 combos)
Any 5? Bet, except quads
Flush draws? Bet backdoor cc draws only
Overcards? Check back
RIVER: RANGE (58%-of previous range)(36 combos)
AX? Bet AT+, check rest, but I like @dmansen's point about the large bet size being suspect.
KsTs? Bluff sometimes
I had villain bluffing 50% of his missed draws, but that's probably high. We need about 30% equity to call. Versus this range, I have 42% so it's a call. The call becomes breakeven for me when his bluffing frequency drops to below 33%.
I'm with you on flop and turn action. To answer your question about overcards, I don't think he bets them very often--less than 20%. Again, the average $1/2 player is passive and they're trying to hit hands, not win pots. So AQ on the turn is just Ace-high, so they check it back.
On the river, I'm not sure what you mean by villain being "balanced." You mean balanced with his value vs bluff range? IMPOSSIBLE! ;) I'm not sure any of us is balanced on the river, nor do we need to be...
(btw, how did you imbed the flopzilla charts?)
A poster on a previous Hand Reading Workbook hand gave me the idea for it. It's so much easier for me to read than the text version of the range. Just take a screen shot of Flopzilla using a screen shot app (Windows has a built-in one called Snippet; on a Mac, you can hit Shift-Command-F4 and it will turn the cursor to crosshairs that you can then use to highlight what portion of the screen you want to capture).
He then continues with 52%/236 combos
The turn he has 75%/178 combos
And then he finishes with 63%/113 combos
This low board texture causes them to get sticky with any over cards, over pairs and flush draws. When the Ace hit this is a rather easy fold because there are too many Aces in their range. I figure I have 10% equity, which leaves me with a negative EV play. They could be bluffing any draw or missed over cards, but I don't have the EV to call here.
No one has really said what our line looks like here, which was in the opening remarks. If we are read as a nit, our range is ak, aq, and 88+, which makes our hand face up.
Are we ever getting called by worse if we lead the river? NO, so then its a check/call to pick off bluffs, which makes me lean a bit more to call. I would have been happier with a $50 river bet though.
An interesting question here is should be be considering shoving the river, at least part of the time? If he is a nit/ typical 1/2 - 2/5 tag that can bet fold the river (and only really reads his hand), we should be able to get him off of a ace here. We should get him off of a6 to aq, which is 78 combos/40% of his range BUT is the majority of his value range, but its too weak to call a jam. it would be 145 more into a pot of 230. if this works 1 out of 3 times we show a $85 profit.
I would like it better if our image was not that of a nit, and if we were in middle position as we would have more 5's in our perceived range. we need a player that just plays their hand and doesn't hand read too well, or is just super nitty to pull this off.
Well being that I've been card dead opening from ep1 if he has been paying even a bit of attention I'd say w/o much of a description of MP1's player type profile other than the "table has been very active postflop but no 3betting" then I'd say combined w/ the fact that we've been dead I'm assuming he won't 3bet hands like JJ or AK this time. Also he still has 5 players behind him. He's an unknown and unless I have evidence or other reason to believe he'd 3bet those hands, then I assume he's going to elect to call instead.
VILLAIN RANGE: JJ-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s,65s
%FORM: 22.3%
COMBOS#: 273
SB Super Nit would they call or 3bet w/..
TT+? Call. I think this player type w/ the word "super" "uber" "ultra" etc says to me "my 3bets = QQ+/AKs maybe even KK+"
AK? Call. These super nit guys usually elect to call w/ AK vs. 3bet almost always as a default
A5s? Call. I think typically super nit types are usually more inclined to stay value focused and never really attempt to squeeze, 3bet lite, etc. it's just not in their nature. Not to say they're never capable of it, but it is very rare to see them ever get a bit "splashy" at least in their minds they likely view it that way.
SB VILLAIN RANGE: QQ-55,AKo-AJo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s
%FORM: 9.22%
COMBOS#: 113
Would BB Spewy Lag call or 3bet w/..
TT+? 3bet. Unlike the nit the BB Spewy Lag I assume has a much wider range and is more inclined put pressure not only me but the entire table.
AQ? 3bet. He likely views AQ like TT.
Suited gappers? 3bet. As described the table has been active but barely any 3betting. I'm assuming BB Spewy Lag is contributing to that activity and is capable of at least considering making squeeze plays and 3betting lite since the table is likely gonna give him credit so he probably thinks he has a decent amount of FE. IF he is even thinking of making calculated solid plays, with the word "spewy" I suppose he's likely more so the aggro not so calculated lag and not the solid one.
BB Spewy Lag VILLAIN RANGE: 99-22,AJo-A7o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AJs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,43s,32s
%FORM: 25.3%
COMBOS#: 336
MP1 likely to raise or call w/..
66+? Calls. I think if he didn't raise the top side of his range pf JJ+ being the best hand he'd call pf then he probably isn't gonna raise this flop even if he thinks he should for value/equity protection. Maybe he thinks since I raised utg and bet the flop w/ 3 others in the hand and that I haven't been active at all card dead that I likely could have something like 99+, AK, AQ, etc and that if he raises he's going to be crushed by my range.
Flush Draws? Calls. If I follow the same logic assuming that I think he's weary of raising 66-JJ because he might think he's likely up against 99-AA then w/ his fd's he probably thinks he doesn't have much FE. So I think he just elects to call.
Ace Jack? Calls. Again if I follow same logic then I don't think he sees much value in raising as he probably thinks there's not much FE and that I as well have hands like AJ that will probably continue facing a raise.
MP1 VILLAIN RANGE: JJ-22,AKo-ATo,AKs-A2s,87s-86s,76s,65s,KsQs,KsJs,KsTs,QsJs,QsTs,JsTs,Js9s,Ts9s,Ts8s,9s8s,9s7s
%OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 62.7%
COMBOS#: 163
T:
Would MP1 check or bet when checked to w/..
Any 5? Bet. It's the turn he'd have to start building a bigger pot against draws, the board is way too drawy so while I do think a lot of SSLNL players love to slowplay, I think here even this player has enough sense to bet the value of their hand when checked to, especially since I have plenty of hands in my range that will call.
Flush Draws? Check behind. I think he thinks that since I checked I probably don't have a hand like TT+ as those would continue betting turn. So maybe he thinks my turn check range is something like 66-99 and likely thinks that he doesn't have much FE still and that I might still call one more street w/ those hands.
Overcards? Check behind. Same FE consideration IF villain is even thinking about it all.
VILLAIN RANGE: 66,33,AKo-ATo,AKs-A4s,A2s,87s-86s,76s,65s,Ac3c,As3s,KsQs,KsJs,KsTs,QsJs,QsTs,JsTs,Js9s,Ts9s,Ts8s,9s8s,9s7s
%OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 78.6%
COMBOS#: 125
R:
Would MP1 bet w/...
AX? Yes
KsTs? No. I believe villain would fold because I didn't think he would semi-bluff turn for fear that he couldn't get folds from my 66-99. So I don't think he just decides now to bluff river w/o any other prior fold equity. The pot isn't that big since the turn went ch/ch so villain hasn't really invested that much into this pot, he's unknown, so there's not much indicating that he's capable of just randomly betting the river as a bluff w/ this hand unless it's just out of frustration no other way to win the hand and I checked. There's a lot more TP in his range vs. bluffs like the missed spade draws. 61.2% TP vs. 22.3% bluffs. I don't think he is bluffing here often at all.
VILLAIN RANGE: 33,AKo-ATo,AKs-A6s,A4s,A2s,Ac3c,As3s
%OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 68.9%
COMBOS#: 71
What would you do here as played? Fold. I need 39.1% equity to make the call and I only have 28.15% vs his range and I don't think he's ever bluffing here.
Do you think they would call with hands as strong as JJ or AK?
Or do you think those hands are going to get 3bet instead?
Since there has been zero 3Betting I would imagine he would call with hands as strong as JJ and AK.
%-Form 18.3% #Combos 242
Villain's Range:
QQ-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KJo,AKs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s,76s,65s
Think about the hands the SB would call you with. When building this range consider if they would call or 3bet with:
TT+? Call TT,JJ,QQ. 3Bet KK, AA
Ace King? Call
A5s? Call
%-Form 22.5% #Combos 298
Villain's Range:
QQ-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A2s,KQs-K8s,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s,76s,65s
Think about the hands the BB would call you with. When building this range consider if they would call or 3bet with:
TT+? Call TT,JJ,QQ. 3Bet KK, AA
Ace Queen? Call
Suited Gappers? 75s+
%-Form 33.9% #Combos 450
Villain's Range:
QQ-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s,54s
Flop:
Consider how MP1 would continue with the following hand strengths. Is MP1 likely to raise or call with:
66+? Call
Flush Draws? Call
Ace Jack? AJ spades only
% of Previous Range 31.4% #Combos 133
Villain's Range:
QQ-66,33,A5o-A4o,A2o,A5s-A4s,A2s,K5s,K3s,86s,76s-75s,65s,AsKs,AsQs,AsJs,AsTs,As9s,As8s,As7s,As6s,As3s,KsQs,KsJs,KsTs,Ks9s,Ks8s,Ks7s,Ks6s,Ks2s,QsJs,QsTs,Qs9s,Qs8s,JsTs,Js9s,Ts9s,Ts8s,9s8s,9s7s,8s7s
Turn:
Think about the hands MP1 is likely to check behind vs bet when you check to them. Would they check or bet:
Any 5? Bet
Flush Draws? Check
Overcards? Check
%-Form 38.1% #Combos 48
Villain's Range:
33,K3s,86s,76s,AsKs,AsQs,AsJs,AsTs,As9s,As8s,As7s,As6s,Ac4c,As3s,As2s,KsQs,KsJs,KsTs,Ks9s,Ks8s,Ks7s,Ks6s,Ks2s,QsJs,QsTs,Qs9s,Qs8s,JsTs,Js9s,Ts9s,Ts8s,9s8s,9s7s,8s7s
River:
The Ace on the river improves any nut flush draws and the straight draw. Would MP1 bet with:
AX? Yes
KsTs Yes
Form 97.9% #Combos 47
Villain's Range:
33,K3s,86s,76s,AsKs,AsQs,AsJs,AsTs,As9s,As8s,As7s,As6s,Ac4c,As3s,As2s,KsQs,KsJs,KsTs,Ks9s,Ks8s,Ks7s,Ks6s,QsJs,QsTs,Qs9s,Qs8s,JsTs,Js9s,Ts9s,Ts8s,9s8s,9s7s,8s7s
What would you do here as-played?
Since I think he betting his remaining range, either with a pair of Aces or a straight for value, or on a bluff for missed flush draws, I only need to win 44% of the time. I beat this range 55% of the time so it's an easy call.
MP1 UNKNOWN
24.4%
299 Combos
TT-22,AJo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,[50]QQ-JJ,AKo-AQo,AKs-AQs[/50]
I would assume he 3bets KK+ jj+and AQ+ say 50% depending on how much people are calling on the table and if he is type to multiway with these hands
SB NIT:
18.9% 231Combos
SB as a super nit only 3bets AA. But they do like calling with suited connectors and pairs. and broadways along with suited Ax
KK-22,AKo-AJo,KQo-KJo,QJo,AKs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s
BB
SPEWY LAG
65.4%
801 combos
JJ-22,AQo-A2o,KQo-K7o,QJo-Q7o,JTo-J7o,T9o-T7o,98o-97o,87o-86o,76o-75o,65o-64o,54o-53o,43o-42o,32o,AQs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J2s,T9s-T2s,98s-92s,87s-82s,76s-72s,65s-62s,54s-52s,43s-42s,32s
as a spewy LAG I expect to call with close to 65% 3betting qq+ and AK
***FLOP***
I Cbet with my 99, he calls.
79% of prvious
236 combos
TT-66,33,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A4s,A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,As3s
Raises all 2pr+ Calls with draws and overcards and PP also raises JJ+
***TURN***
I check, He checks behind
91 % checks 214.25Combos
TT-66,33,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A4s,A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,As3s
Bets all; 5x unless he is planning to bluff most rivers no reason to bluff turn Does he bet over pairs here? 75% yes
***RIVER***
34% of prev 72.5Combos
TT-66,33,AKo-ATo,AKs-A4s,A2s,75s,65s-64s,As3s
He checks behind all hands with showdown value. At 1/2 they don't bluff enough so his missed hands check too. Us checking the river says we dont have an A and we cant beat an A, Here really depends on read of player... Will he bluff his missed hands or not.. If yes then probably call if not then fold. We have under repped our hand strength. His bet size is more a value bet than a bluff.. I would fold we only beat bluffs and not enough info on the player to think he would bluff here
TT-66,33,AJo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs-A4s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,[50]AKo-AQo,AKs-AQs[/50]
222 of 255 I will look at the turn tonight
So yes I could eliminate A# from his range atleast after the turn check
22-QQ
A2s-AQs
A8o-AQo
BrBrs
KQo
KJo
T9s
On the flop he would 3bet TT-QQ 75% of the times
And the nutFD he would rais 75% of the times.
And the sets he would raise always.
Offsuited aces he will call because of the GS.
Nonnutted FD he would call
33 66 77 88 99 he would call
113 combo's. 64% of his previous range.
TURN The board pairs and he checks behind.
With A5 he would bet, trips 5, so I take that out of his range.
A3s = straight, he would bet, so I take that out of his range.
Nutted FD he would bet I think 75% of the times, so in Flopzilla I give those hands 25% that they are in his calling range.
He doesn't have mere overcards in his range anymore.
88-QQ he would probably bet
So his check behind range becomes quite small.
33 66 77
Nonnutted FD
Checkbehind range 35 combo's. 32% of his previous range
RIVER
Would he bet with a busted FD?
Is possible, but I don't think so.
66 and 77 he would probably check behind.
33 is straight he will bet for value.
I gave the filter to 88 -QQ, so there are some combo's in his range.
He can bet QQ. 88 - JJ he would probably check behind.
I gave the nutted FDs 25%-filter, so he has some Axs in his range.
His betting range is 11 combo's. 32% of his previous range.
I would fold in this spot. Our hand is not good enough.
Preflop: I am in EP1 with 99 and I open for $10 (5BB). I do not expect to get 3B and I do expect my opening in early position combined with my tight image to mean something to those who are paying attention. MP1 calls so I will assign a capped range to that, 16% (218 combos) TT-22,AJo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs-A9s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s.
Super Nit in the SB calls which he would do with TT+, AK and A5s. He gets a 12% range (154 combos) AA-88,AKo-AJo,KQo-KJo,QJo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s.
Spewy LAG calls in the BB and gets a capped wide range assignment including TT but not the pairs beyond that. He calls with AQ and suited gappers, a 27% range (358 combos) TT-22,AQo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AQs-A5s,KQs-K8s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s. It’s a four-way pot of $40 going to the flop.
Flop
I have top pair but no straight draw or fd and I bet almost a half pot. BB and SB fold and MP1 calls so I am now heads up with MP OOP. MP1 does continue 66+. He continues with fd and does not continue with AJo, 33% of previous range (64 combos) TT-22,76s,65s,54s,AsJs,AsTs,As9s,KsQs,KsJs,KsTs,QsJs,QsTs,JsTs,Js9s,Ts9s,Ts8s,9s8s,8s7s. This situation always makes me think of trips but I easily rule out two pair
Turn
The board pairs, another flush draw is possible and I check, they check. This is consistent with my fear of slow-played trips. They stay at 100% of the previous range (59 combos) TT-22,76s,65s,54s,AsJs,AsTs,KsQs,KsJs,KsTs,QsJs,QsTs,JsTs,Js9s,Ts9s,Ts8s,9s8s,8s7s
River
MP1 bets 2/3 of a pot, aces are still in his range and the threat of trips is consistent with this bet. He does not bet KTs, 32% of previous range (19 combos) 55-22,65s,54s,AsJs,AsTs
I would fold to conserve my stack, and because I think I am beat. I have 32% equity against his range and the pot odds are 43%
Preflop Range :
MP1 : TT-22,AJo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs-A8s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s
Super Nit :
JJ-22,AQo-AJo,KQo,AQs-ATs,A5s,KQs-KJs,QJs
Spewy LAG :
JJ-22,AJo-A2o,KJo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o-T8o,98o-97o,87o-86o,76o-75o,65o-64o,54o-53o,43o-42o,32o,ATs-A2s,KJs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T7s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-74s,65s-63s,54s-52s,43s-42s,32s
FLop Range :
TT-66,33,AsJs,AsTs,As9s,As8s,KsQs,KsJs,KsTs,Ks9s,QsJs,QsTs,Qs9s,JsTs,Js9s,Ts9s,Ts8s,9s8s,9s7s,8s7s,[25]AJo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AhJh,AcJc,AdJd,AhTh,AcTc,AdTd,Ac9c,Ah8h,Ac8c,Ad8d,KhQh,KcQc,KdQd,KhJh,KcJc,KdJd,KhTh,KcTc,KdTd,Kc9c,QhJh,QcJc,QdJd,QhTh,QcTc,QdTd,Qc9c,JhTh,JcTc,JdTd,Jc9c,Tc9c,Th8h,Tc8c,Td8d,9c8c,9c7c,8h7h,8c7c,8d7d[/25]
Consider how MP1 would continue with the following hand strengths. Is MP1 likely to raise or call with:
66+? Call
Flush Draws? Call
Ace Jack? Call 25% of the time
Turn Range :
33,AsJs,AsTs,As9s,As8s,KsQs,KsJs,KsTs,Ks9s,QsJs,QsTs,Qs9s,JsTs,Js9s,Ts9s,Ts8s,9s8s,9s7s,8s7s,[50]TT-66[/50],[25]AcJc,AcTc,Ac9c,Ac8c,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,Kc9c,QcJc,QcTc,Qc9c,JcTc,Jc9c,Tc9c,Tc8c,9c8c,9c7c,8c7c[/25]
Think about the hands MP1 is likely to check behind vs bet when you check to them. Would they check or bet:
Any 5? Bet but not in the range
Flush Draws? Check
Overcards? Check
River Range :
33,AsJs,AsTs,As9s,As8s,[25]AcJc,AcTc,Ac9c,Ac8c[/25]
The Ace on the river improves any nut flush draws and the straight draw. Would MP1 bet with:
AX? Yes
K♠T♠? Dont think so, or possibly as a bluff
I would probably fold
Situation: $1/$2 table has been very active post flop, but there has been almost zero 3betting pre flop. My image is very tight since I have been card dead. Hero is in EP1 with:
MP1 (unknown) calls. What do I think he calls my $10 open with 5 more to play, including a spewy LAG in the BB. Do I think they would call or raise with:
JJ? Call
AK? Suited raise, Unsuited call
Villain’s range
13% #176 combos
QQ-55, AQs-A9s, A5s-A3s, KTs+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AJo+, KQo
SB (super NIT) calls my open-raise. What would SB call or 3bet with:
TT+? Only raising KK+
AK? Call
A5s? Raise
SB Range:
10% #134 combos
QQ-22, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AKo
BB (Spewy LAG) calls
What hands would the big blind call with. I think they are calling very wide with almost any two cards since they are getting better then 3 to 1. When building range consider if they would call or 3bet with:
TT+? Call TT-QQ, 3bet KK+
AQ? Call
Suited Gappers? Call
BB Range
44% #578 combos
QQ-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q5s+, J6s+, T6s+, 95s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o
Four to flop in a $40 pot
Flop:
SB, BB check hero bets $25 (60% of pot), MP1 calls, the BB and SB fold (thank you). Consider how MP1 would continue with the following strengths.
66+ I think he is betting a fair amount of over pairs to protect against flush draws, straight draws, and over cards on the turn and river.
Flush Draws? Calling with FD (maybe trying to keep the spewy LAG involved.
AJ? Calling with two over cards.
Villain’s calling range (I think he would be trapping his loan set and wheel straights)
63% of pervious range #112
QQ-TT, 88-66, 9c9s, 5c5h, 5d5h, 5d5c, AQs-ATs, A3s, As9s, Ah5h-Ah4h, Ac9c, Ac5c-Ac4c, Ad5d-Ad4d, KsTs+, KcTc+, Qs9s+, Qc9c+, Js9s+, Jc9c+, Ts9s, Tc9c, 9s8s, 9c8c, 87s, 76s, 6h5h, 6c5c, 6d5d, AJo+; Weights: QQ:50%, JJ:50%, TT:50%, 99:50%, 88:50%, 77:50%, 66:50%
Villain checks, Hero cBets $15 (1/2 pot) and villain raises to $45 (pot).
There are 2 players to a $90 turn.
Turn:
Hero checks and villain checks behind. What is MP1 likely to check behind with. Would they check or bet with:
Any 5? Have to bet sets and quads here for value
Flush Draws? NFD bet, FD check
Overcards? Check
Villain range
75% of previous range #85 combos
QQ-TT, 88-66, 9c9s, Ah5h, Ac5c, Ad5d, KsTs+, KcTc+, Qs9s+, Qc9c+, Js9s+, Jc9c+, Ts9s, Tc9c, 9s8s, 9c8c, 87s, 76s, AJo+; Weights: QQ:50%, JJ:50%, TT:50%, 99:50%, 88:50%, 77:50%, 66:50%
Flop:
Ave on the river improves any NFD (I think he would have bet this on the turn) so he may think they help me.
Ax? Value Bet
KsTs? Bluff?
I check and Villain bets $70 into a $90 pot. 1.28 to 1. I need 48% equity to call. Here I think he is checking any of his missed draws and pocket pairs. Why face a 3bet for stacks here? I think he is betting any of AJ+ TT, JJ, QQ for value and maybe betting a few of his missed flush draws Kx Qx as bluffs. Looks to me like I only have 12% equity…fold.
Your Breakeven is 70/230, so about 30%!