Hand #20

dmansendmansen Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
Given that V is a Solid TAG, I don’t think we can include many non-flush-draw bluffs on the flop, and on the turn everything gets there, making this an easy fold. If we fold and V shows a hand like TT, we can re-evaluate our reads.

CO OPEN: RANGE (26.7% of preflop range)(327 combos)
AA-22,AKo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s

Gave CO a wide, strong range that plays well IP.

MP1 CALL: RANGE (43% of preflop range)(527 combos)
JJ-22,AQo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o-T8o,98o-97o,87o-86o,76o-75o,65o-64o,54o,AJs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q5s,JTs-J6s,T9s-T7s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-74s,65s-64s,54s,43s

MP1 is opening a very tight range, limp-calling a ton.

AT? Limp-call
77? Limp-call
J9s? Limp-call

:4h :Th :Kh

CO has 283 combos after flop removal

CO FLOP RAISE: RANGE (14.4% of preflop range)(40.75 combos)
AA-KK,TT,44,9h8h,9h7h,8h7h,8h6h,7h6h,7h5h,6h5h,AhKc,AhKd,AhKs,AhQc,AhQd,AhQs,AhJc,AhJd,AhJs,QhJc,QhJd,QhJs,AhTc,AhTd,AhTs,Ah9c,Ah9d,Ah9s,[50]QhJh,Qh9h,Jh9h[/50],[25]AhQh,AhJh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah3h,Ah2h[/25]

I don’t think CO often raises here with the nut flush, but I wanted to leave a few combos in just in case.

Top pair with no heart? No, would call.
Made flushes? Most often lower made flushes
The naked Ah? Yes, V has this a lot.

:5h

38.5 combos after card removal

CO RIVER SHOVE: RANGE (62.3% of flop range)(24 combos)
AhAc,AhAd,AhAs,AhKc,AhKd,AhKs,AhQc,AhQd,AhQs,AhJc,AhJd,AhJs,QhJc,QhJd,QhJs,AhTc,AhTd,AhTs,Ah9c,Ah9d,Ah9s,[50]QhJh,Qh9h[/50],[25]AhQh,AhJh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah3h,Ah2h[/25]

All flushes? Would probably check with lower ones, see what we do on river.
Sets? Never, too scared of the Ah or Kh.

Would you call $320 as-played? No, we have 22% equity.

Comments

  • misfit 1misfit 1 Red Chipper Posts: 1 ✭✭
    The limp with 44 in EP is debatable but ok. But there is no way you can call a $20 raise ($5 already in pot from limp) with small pair, out of position & not knowing what other limper is going to do with pot odds only at best 3--1. To me it does not matter what happens on next streets as I am out of pot
  • OutlierOutlier Red Chipper Posts: 143 ✭✭
    Used @dmansen's comments as a template as my analysis agreed with his in many spots.

    CO OPEN: RANGE (13% of preflop range)(160 combos)
    6fn9l6g4gza8.png

    Gave villain a way tighter range than @dmansen here. My reasoning was that if he is aware of table dynamics, he's not expecting to barrel fit-or-fold players off hands, so he has to be a bit more value-heavy. I threw in some suited connectors that he might raise to get position in the hand.

    MP1 CALL: RANGE (43% of preflop range)(523 combos)
    1eo9fsvorigg.png

    MP1 is opening a very tight range, limp-calling a ton. If he's never folding, there are probably tons of hands which look appealing to him preflop

    AT? Limp-call
    77? Limp-call
    J9s? Limp-call

    :4h :Th :Kh

    CO FLOP RAISE: RANGE (20% of preflop range)(28 combos)

    mvuhrdkz5viy.png

    This sizing does not indicate a raise that's trying to get a fold. The only "drawing" hands I have for him here are Ah-X hands with which he's trying to see a free turn.

    Top pair with no heart? No, would call.
    Made flushes? Most often the nut flush, would bet a bit larger to charge high hearts in our hand
    The naked Ah? Yes, V has this a lot.

    :5h


    CO RIVER SHOVE: RANGE (100% of flop range)(28 combos)
    9zw1n9cmdm4d.png


    All flushes? Would probably check with lower ones, see what we do on river.
    Sets? Probably not, though maybe he's shoving not to have fold top or middle set.

    Would you call $320 as-played? No, we have 20% equity.
  • NuttedNutterNuttedNutter Red Chipper Posts: 44
    HAND #20

    CO SOLID TAG RANGE: AA-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s,76s

    %FORM: 24.4%
    COMBOS#: 299

    Would MP1 Never Folds l-c w/..

    AT? No I believe he would raise a hand like this. AT+ I think he'd raise A2-A9 I think he'd l-c due to his passive nature. He likely has been one of the big contributors to all the loose postflop action described.

    77? Yes. Would l-c w/ any pp 22-99. TT+ probably raises.

    J9s? Yes. Would l-c w/ similar hands as well like T8s.

    MP1 Never Fold RANGE: 99-22,A9o-A2o,K9o-K2o,Q9o-Q2o,J9o-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o,A9s-A2s,K9s-K2s,Q9s-Q2s,J9s-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s,65s,54s

    %FORM: 41.2%
    COMBOS#: 505

    :4h :Th :Kh

    Does CO's raise size indicate..

    TP no heart? Yes. I think a hand like K9s, KJ raises to $150. Maybe KQ, AK he raises to $180. I assume CO solid tag raises to this size because he views it as a WAWB situation, for example he perhaps thinks I could've l-c w/ a hand like KQ. So he wants value from weaker K's, T's,99-77, fd's, str8draws but could fear being outkicked or is just being cautious because of the board texture and the fact that I could've flopped a flush. So I think that he just doesn't want to commit a full standard 3x raise?

    Made Flushes? Yes I believe so. I think the raise size is in order to make it look a bit weaker so that hands like weaker K's, T's,99-77, fd's, str8draws can call w/o fearing a flopped flush as much.

    Ah? No. I believe w/ the nut fd he would raise at least 3x in order to have more FE against me.

    VILLAIN RANGE: AA-KK,TT,AKo,KQo-KTo,AKs,KQs-K9s,AhQh,AhJh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah3h,Ah2h,QhJh,Qh9h,Jh9h,9h8h,9h7h,8h7h,7h6h

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 29.6%
    COMBOS#: 76

    T: :5h

    Would CO Solid Tag go ai w/..

    All Flushes? No. Just the nut flush. I think the reason he jammed turn is because all my flushes just got there. I think he thinks that I have the 2nd nut flush and would be reluctant to fold. So I don't think he would do this w/ weaker flushes. If he had a weaker flush I think he would've bet smaller in order to entice my previous flop range to continue.

    Sets? No I think he checks-behind sets due to the board texture and my flushes likely getting there on turn. Furthermore I think he would've raised bigger on the flop w/ a set of KK, TT.

    VILLAIN RANGE: AcAh,AdAh,AsAh,AhQh,AhJh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah3h,Ah2h,AhKc,AhKd,AhKs

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 18.7%
    COMBOS#: 14

    Would I call $320 as played? No. I don't have proper odds to call and even if I did I don't think he's bluffing here often at all. So I fold.

    Will check to see how others got on w/ this hand..










  • AcesaladAcesalad Red Chipper Posts: 240 ✭✭
    The CO is very aware of the table dynamics and almost certainly expects his preflop raise to get called - if nothing else by MP1. Given that, what range do you think the CO raises?
    This would kind of depend. The CO is a solid TAG, he may want to raise a little wider range since he thinks he will get called by a very wide range and he has position, but I don't think he would make it too wide since the CO has less than 100 BBs.
    %-Form 39.7% #Combos 526
    Villain's Range:
    AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o-T8o,98o,87o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s
    As expected, MP1 limp-calls preflop. When building their range consider what they would do with the following:
    AT? Call
    77? Call
    J9s? Call
    %-Form 80.4% #Combos 1066
    Villain's Range:
    QQ-22,AQo-A2o,KQo-K2o,QJo-Q2o,JTo-J3o,T9o-T4o,98o-95o,87o-85o,76o-75o,65o-64o,54o,AQs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J2s,T9s-T2s,98s-92s,87s-82s,76s-73s,65s-62s,54s-52s,43s-42s,32s
    Flop:
    :4H: :TH: :KH:
    When building the CO’s raising range, heavily consider the size they raised to. Does this raise indicate:
    Top Pair With No Heart? Yes, because of the possibility we don't have hearts.
    Made Flushes? Except the nut flush, he would want to string you along if he had it.
    The Naked Ah? Yes, as a semi-bluff
    % of Previous Range 32.3% #Combos 150
    Villain's Range:
    AA-KK,TT,44,AKo,KQo-K9o,QJo,AKs,KQs-K7s,QJs,AcQh,AdQh,AsQh,AhQc,AhQd,AhQs,QcQh,QdQh,QsQh,Qh9h,Qh8h,AhJc,AhJd,AhJs,Jh9h,Jh8h,AhTc,AhTd,AhTs,QhTc,QhTd,QhTs,Ah9c,Ah9d,Ah9s,Qh9c,Qh9d,Qh9s,9h8h,9h7h,Ah8c,Ah8d,Ah8s,8h7h,8h6h,Ah7c,Ah7d,Ah7s,7h6h,7h5h,Ah6c,Ah6d,Ah6s,6h5h,Ah5c,Ah5d,Ah5s,Ah4c,Ah4d,Ah4s,Ah3c,Ah3d,Ah3s,Ah2c,Ah2d,Ah2s
    Turn:
    :5H:
    The turn card fills up all the flush draws. Would the CO go allin here with:
    All Flushes? Only the nut flush I think, he would be thinking you likely called the flopped with Ah
    Sets? No, I don't think with 4 hearts out there
    % of Previous Range 26.4% #Combos 39
    Villain's Range:
    AcAh,AdAh,AsAh,AhKc,AhKd,AhKs,AhQc,AhQd,AhQs,AhJc,AhJd,AhJs,AhTc,AhTd,AhTs,Ah9c,Ah9d,Ah9s,Ah8c,Ah8d,Ah8s,Ah7c,Ah7d,Ah7s,Ah6c,Ah6d,Ah6s,Ah5c,Ah5d,Ah5s,Ah4c,Ah4d,Ah4s,Ah3c,Ah3d,Ah3s,Ah2c,Ah2d,Ah2s

    Would you call $320 as-played?
    No, I think he has the flush and I don't have the odds to chase the boat.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,285 ✭✭✭✭
    PREFLOP
    I merely agree with the ranges of @dmansen and disagree with @Acesalad . If CO knows he is going to get called at least by MP1, he want a playable range and not too weak hands (like too weak SC or suited gapers).
    I would add but some more suited blockers.

    CO Preflop bomb's range:
    yb8yarz03slr.png

    FLOP
    CO is a good TAG. Meaning he understands the strength of his range v. a donkbet. What will he raises against a donkbet? Depends on what he see into the donkbet.

    I think Hero donkbet flushes, FD, 2P (KTo), sets (44) and OESD.
    So against that, CO will raise great hands, inclusive weak flushes (but AhXh: not threaten and he doesn't want Hero to fold), sets and 2P; plus FD.

    I don't think Villain will be too crazy about his raising range as his raise, if called, is preparing a turn shove.
    c7kq22ul4vf3.png


    At contrario to others, I'm not sure he will give action with a naked TP. I think he may be cautious and fold ; and will float or raise if Hero as an aggro image or has donkbet some times already.


    TURN
    The problem I see is that V has almost no bluff. The 4th :HEART: may complete a flush for both of us, and any bet is an all-in (320$ into 400$). Does a good TAG bet (which will be all-in) with KK, KT, AK or QJ without :HEART: against an eventual flush from Hero? Not sure. And a check from Hero doesn't mean Hero doesn't hold a :HEART: (even :AH: ).

    So the all-in is imho 100% value oriented, betting nut flushes (AhXx) and 2nd nut (QhXx), and checking / SDV with his other holdings, including weak flushes (in case we have a stronger :HEART: we slowplay).

    Same as others, we fold as we don't have enough equity (21.9%) to the pot odds (30.8%).
  • akashraakashra Red Chipper Posts: 12 ✭✭
    Curious... Looking over relatively quickly. I too don't see many hands Villain is bluffing with here, but simultaneously being a solid TAG whom we would assume would consider our range .. with what everyone thinks makes up the majority of his range here AhX which makes a lot of sense for the most part - however, would he feel the need to fast play it so and risk folding us out whereas our range doesn't have much equity to draw out .. I mean we never have KK, never have TT...
  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 427 ✭✭✭
    HAND #20

    Preflop CO would expect calls but also would expect a lot of fit or fold play post flop. And if he does hit he speculative hands he would likely get paid off. Good spot to be fairly wide raising in position.
    MP1 as a never fold player likely plays any 2 suited all Ax and all PP plus trash. He would have open raised AJo+ and JJ+
    CO: AA-55,AKo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s
    %FORM: 28.9%
    COMBOS#: 379

    MP1:TT-22,ATo-A2o,KJo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,ATs-A2s,KJs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J2s,T9s-T2s,98s-92s,87s-82s,76s-72s,65s-62s,54s-52s,43s-42s,32s
    %FORM: 43.3%
    COMBOS#: 531

    :4h :Th :Kh

    FLOP: When considering CO reraise range it is also important t think about our donk bet range. This is weak hands that want a fold on the flop (Kx some 10x) that will bet fold. Then we have Made hands that don't want to give a free card (2pr, weak flushes} The bet/call maybe fold on turn hands.. And lastly the never fold on Any turn hands.. Sets and good flushes and strong flush draws. Hands we don't bet here are Air and Nutflush. So alot of our range if it doesnt fold to a flop raise will fold to a turn bet. CO raise size is my standard non allin raise so it doesn't glean much info but is a very committing bet for future streets. As CO I would raise JJ+ and all Nut and 2nd nut flush draws, and OESD as can blush if flush does hit or make a straight. I also am raising with Made flushes as I don't want a scare card on turn to kill the action and not get money in the pot.

    AA-TT,AKo,KQo-K9o,QJo,AKs,KQs-K7s,QJs,AhQh,AhJh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah3h,Ah2h,AcQh,AdQh,AsQh,AhQc,AhQd,AhQs,Qh9h,AhJc,AhJd,AhJs,Jh9h,AhTc,AhTd,AhTs,QhTc,QhTd,QhTs,Ah9c,Ah9d,Ah9s,Qh9c,Qh9d,Qh9s,9h8h,Ah8c,Ah8d,Ah8s,8h7h,7h6h,6h5h

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 37.5%
    COMBOS#: 142

    T: :5h
    Turn: This is a card that potentially hits both ranges. But also puts a lot of pressure on both ranges. Hero has less than a pot sized bet left so would likely fold all weak hands like top pair and likely even two pair. Maybe even weak made flushes but doubtful. So CO bets most everything when checked to with top pair and over pairs being weighted at half the time.

    VILLAIN RANGE: KK,TT,KTo,KTs,AcAh,AdAh,AsAh,AhQh,AhJh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah3h,Ah2h,AhKc,AhKd,AhKs,AcQh,AdQh,AsQh,AhQc,AhQd,AhQs,KcQh,KdQh,KsQh,QcQh,QdQh,QsQh,QhJh,Qh9h,AhJc,AhJd,AhJs,KcJh,KdJh,KsJh,QcJh,QdJh,QsJh,QhJc,QhJd,QhJs,JcJh,JdJh,JsJh,Jh9h,AhTc,AhTd,AhTs,QhTc,QhTd,QhTs,Ah9c,Ah9d,Ah9s,Kc9h,Kd9h,Ks9h,Qh9c,Qh9d,Qh9s,9h8h,Ah8c,Ah8d,Ah8s,8h7h,7h6h,[50]AKs,KQs-KJs,K9s-K7s,AdAc,AsAc,AsAd,AdKc,AsKc,AcKd,AsKd,AcKs,AdKs,KdQc,KsQc,KcQd,KsQd,KcQs,KdQs,QdQc,QsQc,QsQd,QcJc,QdJd,QsJs,KdJc,KsJc,KcJd,KsJd,KcJs,KdJs,QdJc,QsJc,QcJd,QsJd,QcJs,QdJs,JdJc,JsJc,JsJd,Kd9c,Ks9c,Kc9d,Ks9d,Kc9s,Kd9s[/50]
    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 77.5%
    COMBOS#: 110

    Equity Range: 55.826%
    Equity Hand: 44.174%
    Tie: 8.368%
    +EV $99.73 to call



  • Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
    Hand 20
    Preflop: a hyper aware Solid Tag opens for 6 BB in the CO. I see him having a speculative hand and wanting to knock out limpers, Preflop. He is at 22% (277 combos) JJ-22,AJo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s.
    I call, Never Folds in MP1 calls with AT, 77 and J9s, a range of 23% (283 combos) AA-22,AKo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A5s,KQs-K8s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s.

    Flop :4h :Th :Kh
    I have a set and fear a heart flush so I bet more than a half pot ($60) hoping to shake off the other two. Never Fold in MP1, folds and the CO raises my bet by almost 3X, playing on my fears of a heart flush. He may be semi bluffing and holding a Kx or have a one heart card and hedging with a fd. He is tough and aggressive so I’d expect him to bet top pair with no heart, made flushes and a naked Ah included within a 34% of the previous range (85 combos) TT,KQo-KTo,QJo,KQs-K9s,QJs,AhJh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah3h,Ah2h,Qh9h,AhJc,AhJd,AhJs,Jh9h,AhTc,AhTd,AhTs,QhTc,QhTd,QhTs,Ah9c,Ah9d,Ah9s,9h8h,9h7h,8h7h,8h6h,7h6h,7h5h,6h5h,5h3h.

    Turn :5h
    Very scary board for both of us. I’m still feeling he is semi-buffing a Kx. That if he has a heart he still may be worried that I have a have a bigger heart. Equilab gives my trips a nearly 3% win rate advantage (and I’m surprised and happy to know this). TAG bets all of his flushes and sets and has a 48% of previous range (39 combos) TT,KTo,KTs,AhJh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah3h,Ah2h,KcQh,KdQh,KsQh,QhJh,Qh9h,AhJc,AhJd,AhJs,QhJc,QhJd,QhJs,AhTc,AhTd,AhTs,QhTc,QhTd,QhTs,Ah9c,Ah9d,Ah9s.

    I would take a chance on this and call his all-in because I don’t fold sets and I’ve decided he is on a Kx.

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