22 triple barrel

AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
25NL zone

Hero UTG ($25) :2s :2h raise .85
3 folds
SB ($55) calls .85
BB folds

Flop (1.95) :Jc :4c :Qd
SB checks
Hero bets .97 (1/2 pot after rake)
SB calls

Turn (3.89) :Jc :4c :Qd :Kc
SB checks
Hero bets $2.94
SB calls

River (9.77) :Jc :4c :Qd :Kc :Tc
SB checks
Hero bets $7.27

On the flop there are a ton of hands he could have, but figure he only continues with FD, SD, Jx,Qx

Turn I figured it was a good bluff card if he has like AJ, AQ, J10 (no club), QT no club etc. I was planning on giving up if he called the turn

River Puts four to a flush and 4 to a straight. Here is where I wanted to use blockers. Qc very possible. AcJx, AcQx etc. However, I didn't think he would check a flush on the river with the ace of clubs. I think Qc would still hero call though.

Figured he has to fold all his 2 pair hands, most straights have to fold unless its Ac.

What are your thoughts on this line? Too aggro?
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Comments

  • BotswanaNickBotswanaNick Red Chipper Posts: 696 ✭✭✭
    I think the rationale regarding board texture and barreling all makes sense to me, the problem is that you have arguably the single worst hand to barrel with. Especially the bet on the turn, which would be better with a bare T or a bare club (or small pairs that include a club). If you are taking this line with this hand, then you are most likely taking it with your entire range (other than a few medium strength hands). I get the feeling that this happens to you a lot; you are a thoughtful player, but it feels like you are often coming up with rationale to barrel and barrel ad infinitum. I would suggest working on finding more spots to give up. Small pocket pairs make prime candidates, as they usually have almost 0 equity when called. To be honest, this flop is a bad cbet spot, although I admit when I am UTG vs a bb defend, I usually cbet 100%.
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,004 ✭✭✭✭
    edited July 2016
    The sicko in me likes it, but hard to tell without running some ranges, and I'm too lazy. Might be a total spew readless. I'd be betting bigger every street though if this is my plan. Plus a half pot cb gets looked up lighter on these drawy boards.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    because its zone I am usually 1/2 potting some what wet flops when I have little equity. If i have more equity I am betting 2/3 to 3/4 pot which is unexploited on anonymous tables.

    I agree the turn is not the best card to barrel I would much prefer something like a 7c. I was trying to polarize my range a bit on this turn. Only reason I don't like my turn bet is because if i bet the turn I should be betting most rivers and there are not a lot of great rivers I can bet.

    I like the bluff as my range is uncapped and I can have a lot of Qc and Ac in my range. He can as well, but his river check would take some of those out.

    As played he called me with KdTd and that's why I posted this hand. The call didn't make any sense to me. I put a lot of thought into this hand on what i am betting on the river and what I am checking back. Its basically only betting Qc and Ac in my range then other hands with like no showdown value; not many hands that I barrel twice that don't have showdown value on this river.

    This is just one of my rare triple barrel pure bluffs... I really can't think of what other hands I would have that play like this. 22-88 with out a club I guess ,but as I said its a rare barrel for me on this run out. 6 combos each, but if I take out all the pairs with out a club its only 21 combos then he loses to like 100 other combos i have that either check back or bet this river.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,008 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I was very curious about this one last night and was hoping villain made it to show down. That's a very sound call with all KT. Your line doesn't represent much vis a vis the board, almost exclusively the remaining AcQx combinations. Nothing else fits the parameters for what both can bet all three streets or needs to bet all three streets. Villain's turn call should slow down nearly every other hand and he is forced to call the extremely polarizing river.

    Great hand to post. As Nick and Monad suggest, it shows the dangers (and benefits) of ignoring the board.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    That's a very sound call with all KT.

    How is that a sound call? When you say 'sound call' you mean good call? Obviously this hand yeah, but I think that's extremely result oriented. Any triple barrels on this board calling KT he is going to be destroyed long run.

    Please explain your logic.

    Turn (3.89) :Jc :4c :Qd :Kc

    i'll start with the turn because my cbet on the flop is near 100%. My range for barreling the turn.

    Range:
    AJ (12 combos)
    AQ (12 combos)
    KQ (6 combos)
    QJs (2 combos)
    JTs (3 combos)
    AK (12 combos)
    JJ (3 combos)
    QQ ( 3 combos)
    KK (3 combos)
    TT (6 combos)
    44 (3 combos)
    AA (6 combos)

    This is a typical combo range for barreling for aggressive regulars. Let me know if you disagree with any of this range and why? I made this range based off a standard 11-13% preflop UTG range.

    River (9.77) :Jc :4c :Qd :Kc :Tc

    of that turn range which combos are betting this river?
    AcJx (4 combos)
    AcQx (4 combos)
    KxQc (3 combos)
    QcJx (3 combos) *not going to count this one since QJo is not in my preflop range UTG
    QJs (2 combos) *some times turn it into a bluff
    J10s (3 combos) *some times turn it into a bluff
    AcAx (3 combos)

    so we have 19 combos that bet this river and he is only ahead of 6 combos that might be turned into bluffs. In order for his call to be profitable I would literally have to be including 22, 33, 55, 66, 77, 88 that doesn't have a club (18 combos).

    So if I include those hands I have 13 value combos and when I feel a little crazy I have 24 bluff combos which is back wards of the usual 2 value bets for every 1 bluff rule of thumb.

    If I take out 22-88 from the range its a suicide call. All my other hands KQ, sets, straights, etc with out a club just get checked back.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Think I messed up on this part

    AcJx (4 combos)
    AcQx (4 combos)

    Should be 3 combos each I believe. C = A1 * A2. Where A = unseen cards.

    However combos are still roughly the same as I forgot to include A10s (4 combos) in my range on the turn but 0 combos of A10s that bet the river.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,008 ✭✭✭✭✭
    1. If you are an aggressive reg, your flop to turn range is much wider than what you list, which you demonstrably prove by showing up with underpairs and maybe even other hands that have backdoor equity, made their hand, but don't need to bet the river. The K is the key card. It is a barrel card which keeps this range betting once it chose to start, which it did not have to do on a board like this. Therefore, your real range (which you don't list) and your perceived range (which you do list) are different. So your range at the end is likely wider than you say it is and your bluffs:value ratio is higher than 2:1. More importantly, because of everything I've mentioned here your opponent will think differently than you do about what you show up with.
    2. More subtly, you don't have to barrel all these hands, at that. AcJx and other hands can ideally check the flop or turn in order to protect a checking range and pick up equity if needed. (perhaps, as you say, you have 0 checking range but I can't know that and is beyond the scope of this hand history.) So this ends up making you look even more polarized skewed toward unbalanced at the end and explains why I was very curious as to how villain would respond.
    3. Lasty, river play. Separate from all this, your bet on the end increases the polarization and skews you away from the second nuts, taking away some of your combos, because the flop floats that now end up on the river nutted shouldn't lead out necessarily. So it's a nice play to bet on the river, but removes some hands from your range- even some of the Qcxx hands. In other words, he should think you have to put him on a range which should be nutted some of the time after the turn call.

    In sum, the runout is a hard one to shell away on.
  • Jimmy3150Jimmy3150 Red Chipper Posts: 362 ✭✭
    IMO your opponent is playing the player not his cards; he clocks you as a LAG with multiple bluffs in your range and v capable of a 3-barrel, hence made the plan early on to call you down 3-streets despite board texture.

    Just as a comparison of playing styles (& maybe I'm just too passive...), but I would almost never cbet this board with a baby pair when checked to - I much prefer checking behind, taking a free card and maybe hitting the miracle set on the turn.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I have shared my utg range multiple timed on these forums. Kqjt board heavily favors my utg range to 2 pairs sets straights and flushes. How do you figure my rnage is 2 bluffs to 1 value?

    Also this hand is zone poker. Player cannot perceive me as a lag with no history.

    I broke down every combo.

    Flop like 100% cbet is profitable long term.

    2nd bullet on turns are polarized to made hands and draws.

    What part of my range is a lie if my ep range is
    AJ KQ J10s+ A10s+ 22+?

    Villains typical calling range
    22-TT, AJ+, KQ+ ATBs, 65s-KQs

    Go over villains range and let the math show how profitable it is. If he folds 22-TT 65s-98s then its profit. With half pot cbet i only need him to fold 33%. I'm sure he is folding around 50% on average.

    Also out of my preflop range let me know how you come up with 2 bluffs for 1 value with a polarized turn betting range.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,008 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 2016
    That line is a 5 am typo I can't correct given the website, but read in context you can see that I mean to say that you will have more bluffs than the 2:1 or 13:6 margin you give, which I make my case for throughout the post.

    I never said your UTG range, or anything else, is a lie. I said your continuing turn range is wider than you give, and which is self evidently true.
  • BotswanaNickBotswanaNick Red Chipper Posts: 696 ✭✭✭
    Austin, this is what I am talking about when I said earlier it feels like you are looking for reasons to continue betting, whether for value or as a bluff, and I worry it will end up leading to you just betting and betting and betting.

    Let's start with his river call. I see calls like this quite often. The rationale is as persuadeo says, there aren't many hands that most players 3 barrel for value, either in general or especially on this board. So if a player likes to 3 barrel as a bluff, they will have bluffs much more often here then value hands. But this is zone poker you say! No reads you say! You don't need a read on an individual villain, you can use Bayesian reasoning (even if you don't know what that is), to deduce that if value 3 barrels are very rare, then even if only some poeple are really bluffy and 3 barrel bluff a lot, then if you see a 3 barrel line from an unknown player, it is more likely to be a bluff than a value bet just by probability. The same kind of rationale can go for these 4 flush boards; many players are only betting the Ac for value, and many players like to bluff these boards when they have no club. Players will have no clubs much more often then they have the Ac, so even if not everyone plays like that, the number of bluffs can easily overwhelm the number of value bets for the total player pool.

    Now to address your turn barreling range, you listed a crazy value barreling range that includes hands like JT, AQ, AK, TT, etc. You forgot to list every single other hand in your range as bluffs, which given the fact that you barreled 22 are very likely to be included. But I think you are missing something very fundamental here. You say that you have a huge range advantage which allows you to barrel with immunity. But your range advantage is on the flop. After he calls your cbet, his range looks very different than before he calls your bet. But because you cbet 100%, you range still looks the same. There are a few bad players on Bovada that float these types of cbets too wide, but most good players know they need a strong hand to continue against your UTG range. So once they call the flop and this turn comes, you don't really have a great range advantage any more. And in particular, they have a lot more flushes and straights than you do. So you cannot be betting hands like AQ or JT, unless you are thinking of them as buffs. And if you do that, I will say one last time you risk just making every hand in your range a 3barrel here.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Turn (3.89) :Jc :4c :Qd :Kc

    Range:
    AJ (12 combos)
    AQ (12 combos)
    KQ (6 combos)
    QJs (2 combos)
    JTs (3 combos)
    AK (12 combos)
    JJ (3 combos)
    QQ ( 3 combos)
    KK (3 combos)
    TT (6 combos)
    44 (3 combos)
    AA (6 combos)

    @BotswanaNick

    When you listed JT and AJ type hands for value, they are not really value hands, but more of hands that I am bluffing with, but could still be thin value hands against J10. AQ I can get value from AJ, JT, Maybe a wider range like J10s or QT etc.

    Turn range is not necessarily black and white as either value or bluff. Its a balance of value, thin value, and Fold equity (bluffs).

    Everyone seems to think I am 3 barreling like crazy. I don't three barrel very often. I 2 barrel often. 3 barrels are more of nutted hands or combo draws that have a great river scare card.

    It seems like no one on this forum has a bluffing range on this turn. I understand it hits villain's range hard as well. He has a lot of Suited broadways, AJ, AQ, KQ, in his range. With those suited broadways he will have a lot of 2 pair and very little flush hands.

    Seems like no one bets the turn with out 2 pair + QJ or better. If villain held AQ, AJ, J10, QJ,KJ, KQ, etc with out a club. Do you really think they are fist pump calling the turn without a club? I mean i can easily have JJ, QQ, KK, ATs, & AcQc in my range which would practically have him drawing dead.

    If you see calls like this in your game all the time I guarantee they are massive losing players. I think it's much harder for me to have Ac or Qc by checking back on the turn.

    Lets say the turn was a Kh instead of a Kc how does my range change? I think now my range should change drastically because 2 pair is not going anywhere and there are less hands to be scared against; hence no flush possible.

    Turn (3.89) :Jc :4c :Qd :Kh

    Range:
    KQ (6 combos)
    QJs (2 combos)
    AK (12 combos)
    JJ (3 combos)
    QQ ( 3 combos)
    KK (3 combos)
    44 (3 combos)
    AA (6 combos)
    ATs (4 combos)

    I think my range goes from mostly value and some thin value on Kh turn compared to Kc turn, where I have way more bluffs. On the river however, if the turn was a Kh and player checked again I would imagine a lot of my checking back range could potentially make a substantial bet. Maybe something like 1.5x pot because his range is basically capped at 1 pair when he checks all three streets.

    I think this is the disagreement we are having. I am not sure if people are viewing the Kc as just a naked King which helps both mine and villains range and barreling with 22 is just atrocious at that point or they are separating the fact that the flush came in as a bluff opportunity.

    Also I would point out if the guy was on the BTN or CO the turn bet becomes even less favorable for my bluffing range because now he can have more low SCs which already have the flush compared to a SB calling range which consist of mostly high suited Broadways.

    I understand there are several "IFs" we can change in this hand. The point being though its UTG range vs SB calling range and that is what is being addressed when a 3 flush board comes in.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If you add up the combos from the Kc hand to the Kh hand its 71 combos vs 42 combos in terms of barreling range. 40% of my range disappears based on a turn heart K based on SB calling range.
  • BotswanaNickBotswanaNick Red Chipper Posts: 696 ✭✭✭
    Austin, do you see the Kc on the turn as better for your range or for villains?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Austin, do you see the Kc on the turn as better for your range or for villains?

    If villain is on the BTN or CO I would view it as better for him. Because he should have a tighter SB calling range I think the Kc is better for my range as I have more sets and straights in my range.

    I don't think he will have AT in his range, but I think he will have T9s. I can still have AT on the turn, but I dont have T9s (although a lot of regs would have T9s on the turn in their range). My range is capped at TJs preflop UTG.

    I have AK in my range where he wont have AK. I can also have KK in my range. His range improves with KJs (3 combos) and KQs (2 combos).

    In terms of combos I think the K adds more value combos to my range than his. It is really late (almost 5am) right now, but that is my current thinking.
  • BotswanaNickBotswanaNick Red Chipper Posts: 696 ✭✭✭
    edited July 2016
    At these stakes on Bovada, I'm not giving as tight a range to SB flat as if I knew we were facing a good player. You will definitely see some ATo here, and maybe even some T9o, definitely ATs and T9s, and plenty of broadway.

    I think the Kc is quite a bit better for villain than for hero. Sure, hero has more sets, but villain has more flushes and more straights. Not just that they have more combos, but that their range is make up of a higher proportion of those hands. And many of their hands that aren't straights and flushes are 2 pair or pair+draw (they have hands like QJ, KJ, KT). Overall their range is quite strong now. You asked before if I would have a bluffing range at all here. Sure, but we need to be quite selective with our bluffs, and they should all include a club or a T at absolute minimum.

    If we want to think about how to construct our betting range on this turn, we should start with our value range and then include a proportion of semi-bluffs to mix in. But part of our disagreement stems from how we see this board. I am definitely not value-betting AK on this board, probably not AA either. I don't even love value betting 2 pair here (I probably still would bet most two-pair, but hating life if I'm check-raised). So my value-betting range is quite small, and therefore I 'm only going to include a small number of bluffs as well. Even if we have a large bluffing range, 22 with no club does not belong in it IMO.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    @Nick

    Well thought out process and I am starting to agree more and more with what you are saying. Once I widen SB preflop calling range the Kc gets worse and worse. As I stated before I viewed his range on BTN or CO to be much wider and I wouldn't bet the turn Kc if he had position and wider range. If I move that same range to the SB which it looks like you have assigned to him (because of stakes) than we can agree the Kc is a bad turn based off preflop range. Which vs unknowns I probably should assign a bit of a wider range at micro stakes.

    Now back to what hands I should be barreling on the turn.

    Turn (3.89) :Jc :4c :Qd :Kc

    Range:
    AcJ (4combos)
    AcQ (4combos)
    KQ (6 combos)
    QJs (2 combos)
    JTs (3 combos) *maybe? *no club
    AcK (4combos)
    JJ (3 combos)
    QQ ( 3 combos)
    KK (3 combos)
    TT (6 combos) *not sure if I should bet TT on the turn with or without a club or if at all
    44 (3 combos)
    AA (6 combos) *same as TT should I bet AA with a club and check without? or vice versa?

    So with this range I don't have much of a total bluff range. A lot of Pair + FD or paid + SD and then quite a bit of value hands.

    Let me know what range you would use. I basically took out all the pure bluffs. Maybe i'll save those for more advanced levels and just focus more on value for now.
  • BotswanaNickBotswanaNick Red Chipper Posts: 696 ✭✭✭
    Hmm this is very interesting and I must admit for all my bloviating earlier, I do not have a strong handle on what our barreling range should be exactly. One of the reasons it gets complicated is that most of our hands with Ac also have a pair. So I'm not even sure, lets say we want to break up our AK and AA combos, is it better to bet or check AK with the Ac? On the one hand, AcKx is better to check back, because we are much less worried about giving a free card. On the other, it might be better to bet, because it could possibly stand up to a small checkraise?

    I'm looking more at your suggested range now. Do you not open ATs UTG? What about other suited Aces? And no T9s? If this is true, you literally have no straights or flushes in your range. If so, your range is in much worse shape then I was thinking, and you need to consider checking back your entire range. If we insist on a betting range, it should probably only include sets and a few AcJ and TT as bluffs.

    And a final note about lacking any "pure bluffs". It is generally ok to lack pure bluffs on the turn. When we bluff the turn, our priority should be finding the hands that aren't strong enough to check, but have the most equity when called. These hands are usually in the semibluff category. Once you reach the river, then the priority shifts. There are no more cards coming, so future equity is not longer significant. Now we want to pick our bluffs from the hands have the absolute lowest showdown value (or alternatively we could select hands that are blocking villains calling range). This is not to say that you should never have 'pure bluffs' on the turn, but when you start building your bluffing range, you start with hands with decent equity and go from there.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Right now i dont have T9s in my utg range..i do have A10s. I use to have 98s but i tightened up my utg range to ensure i have better SCs then villains when im oop. Also play vs unknowns don't have to open too wide.

    Utg
    22+, A10s+ AJo+ KQ+ J10s+

    Pretty much it. Very high card priority for low stakes.

    Straights i still have 4 combos of ATs possible on the turn.

    Flushes same ATs and AQs total 2 combos.

    I think bettting are AA and AK without a club is better for us since villain will be more likely to have a club himself so we get value from his draws where as if we have the Ac or Qc he can't have it and will likely only call with 2 pair..

    Bet no club for value
    Check back pair + club for pot control

    Sound right?
  • NikosNikos Red Chipper Posts: 117
    IMO this is a fantastic thread one of the most interesting i've seen lately. And it's been giving me freakin nightmares!

    I dont think i can shed light on this or say what's right or wrong, but here goes:

    a) Given my own tight UTG (<10%) OR I would never show up at SD with more bluffs than *perhaps* exactly TT. I would though cbet this flop almost 100%.
    b) I cannot begin to imagine how anyone would call w/ KdTd or anything less than a straight at the very minimum. I don't think V can have sufficient reads on hero making KTd a call.
    c) In fact I would have thought that KTd is not in Vs SB calling range. This has been a pain to pinpoint; i've seen books advocating a super-tight SB vs (competent LAG) UTG calling range of 88-QQ, AKo, AQs, KQs. In practice i'm both using and assigning a quite wider range on the SB (depending on V) including several med-SCs and some suited broadways.
    d) Given (c) and my version of Vs range I would tend to think i'm dead to the many straights/flushes in Vs range ott and not fire a 2nd barrel especially without a draw of my own. And even then i'd check back most of my hands with some SV (<=2pr) fearing a x/r.
    e) On rare occasions, e.g. on my birthday or xmas, it might seem like a great idea to barrel turn with air (inc small PP), overestimating how Kc helps my range instead of Vs.
    g) On those rare occasions that i reach river with air and given Vs passive line, I think the Tc makes me like heros jam repping more Ac than bluffs.

    Overall though I would tend to agree with @BotswanaNick and, from this post and others, i kinda feel @Austin might be a little too heavy on the betting side. The majority of the time i believe we shouldn't reach SD this way. I also think the reasoning at the time of play might be flawed:
    On the flop there are a ton of hands he could have, but figure he only continues with FD, SD, Jx,Qx
    and
    Villains typical calling range: 22-TT, AJ+, KQ+ ATBs, 65s-KQs

    but later this becomes
    Also I would point out if the guy was on the BTN or CO the turn bet becomes even less favorable for my bluffing range because now he can have more low SCs which already have the flush compared to a SB calling range which consist of mostly high suited Broadways.

    If hero thinks the former as V range, the Kc completes many flushes/straights and hero should probly shut down. If SCs connectors are not in Vs range then the bluff is more likeable. But it feels like hero might be betting for ambiguous reasons.

    One last thing is Vs line, which is equally debatable. I believe V would be raising sets otf, straights/flushes ott. So barring these (assuming they are in his range), V has bluff catchers or nuts. On this river his call makes me think he's just a station because hero has next to zero bluffs here (worrying as this sounds) and his bluff catchers have very little bluffs to catch.

    I'm rambling.. I can't reach a conclusion with this but it's been a fun post.

    Hands off to @Austin in any case; a ballsy play! Long as you don't do this every single time..

    kudos to @Austin for the great post and comments, @BotswanaNick, @persuadeo and the rest of you for sharing your insight.
  • BotswanaNickBotswanaNick Red Chipper Posts: 696 ✭✭✭
    edited July 2016
    I would love to hear some RCP coaches chime in here, they did tweet out this thread after all:) I'm on the limits of my confidence levels when figuring out exact turn barreling range (and my confidence level is already much bigger than is probably warranted:)

    Yeah, as you state Austin, you have 5 straight/flush combos in your range on the turn. Villain easily has 10-15 minimum and could have as many as 40 or more! We need to slow down in a big way. Also remember, when we are deeper to start, it can skew the kinds of hands he can call with from the small blind. Sure, as we get deeper, position becomes even powerful. But that can be negated when you have hands that can easily make the nuts, like suited Aces and suited broadways. (And also also remember, many bovada players at these stakes are just calling with all their "calling hands", without much thought to position, range, etc).

    Austin, as a side note, I think it would be good to work on getting more deep-stack protection hands in your range when you get over 100bblinds deep. I know you were only 100 deep in this hand, but especially when you get over 125 or 150, you need to have hands like T9s, A2-A5s, and maybe others to be able to play deepstack poker. I know this is zone, so its harder then usual to know if you will end up playing with deep effective stacks. But its a good habit to scan the entire table's stacks before you open, paying special attention to button and big blind. When I'm opening over 120 bb deep, I remove hands like AJo and perhaps even KQo, but add most suited Aces, T9s, 87s, 56s (to be able to have coverage on all flops without skewing range too far to suited connectors). This might not be the exact perfect range or anything, but the point is you need to be shifting your range as you get deeper. When I'm under 50bb deep, I remove all those hands, and even consider adding in ATo and KJo, because when shorter stacked, TPTK hands are usually fine to stack off with.
  • kytmagickytmagic Red Chipper Posts: 184 ✭✭
    This hand has got my brain exploding. I've tweeted the thread to @SplitSuit and he also thinks the V river call makes sense. I'm trying to decipher this.

    What's the final math on the whole hand for you, @Austin? Would you still c-bet this board 100%? How much of your range are you checking on the turn?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    @Nick

    Well thought out process and I am starting to agree more and more with what you are saying. Once I widen SB preflop calling range the Kc gets worse and worse. As I stated before I viewed his range on BTN or CO to be much wider and I wouldn't bet the turn Kc if he had position and wider range. If I move that same range to the SB which it looks like you have assigned to him (because of stakes) than we can agree the Kc is a bad turn based off preflop range. Which vs unknowns I probably should assign a bit of a wider range at micro stakes.

    Now back to what hands I should be barreling on the turn.

    Turn (3.89) :Jc :4c :Qd :Kc

    Range:
    AcJ (4combos)
    AcQ (4combos)
    KQ (6 combos)
    QJs (2 combos)
    JTs (3 combos) *maybe? *no club
    AcK (4combos)
    JJ (3 combos)
    QQ ( 3 combos)
    KK (3 combos)
    TT (6 combos) *not sure if I should bet TT on the turn with or without a club or if at all
    44 (3 combos)
    AA (6 combos) *same as TT should I bet AA with a club and check without? or vice versa?

    So with this range I don't have much of a total bluff range. A lot of Pair + FD or paid + SD and then quite a bit of value hands.

    Let me know what range you would use. I basically took out all the pure bluffs. Maybe i'll save those for more advanced levels and just focus more on value for now.
    kytmagic wrote: »
    This hand has got my brain exploding. I've tweeted the thread to @SplitSuit and he also thinks the V river call makes sense. I'm trying to decipher this.

    What's the final math on the whole hand for you, @Austin? Would you still c-bet this board 100%? How much of your range are you checking on the turn?

    I took my post from above which breaks down my usual combos for betting the turn.
    Austin wrote: »
    Right now i dont have T9s in my utg range..i do have A10s. I use to have 98s but i tightened up my utg range to ensure i have better SCs then villains when im oop. Also play vs unknowns don't have to open too wide.

    Utg
    22+, A10s+ AJo+ KQ+ J10s+

    Pretty much it. Very high card priority for low stakes.

    Straights i still have 4 combos of ATs possible on the turn.

    Flushes same ATs and AQs total 2 combos.

    I think bettting are AA and AK without a club is better for us since villain will be more likely to have a club himself so we get value from his draws where as if we have the Ac or Qc he can't have it and will likely only call with 2 pair..

    Bet no club for value
    Check back pair + club for pot control

    Sound right?

    When you said split said villains call makes sense i doubt split is calling this himself. If split does call here often on the river i don't think i could take his advice any more lol.

    There was a post where someone ran a bunch of all ins since 2015 given a certain situation..maybe someone can do this on their data base where
    Board = 4 straight true
    Board = 4 flush true
    Hero calls 2 pair = true

    And see if anyone is + money in these situations.

    I think villains call is atrocious here given my bet sizing. Im slowly increasing my bet sizing to be more polarizing where i either have it or I don't but villain calling like 80% pot has to be right very often to be profitbale. When you look at my barreling range usually its for me to have many bluffs on the turn where river doesn't improve my hand to better than his KT hand. I don't have a problem with villains flop or turn only the river call. This is not being result oriented either. I would be shocked if he aint busted yet making these calls.

    As stated above if i give villain a wider range the only problem i would have with this hand is my turn betting frequency. Bet check bet line would be better given this run out. Bet bet bet line just screams KT doesn't beat anything.
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,011 -
    Austin wrote: »
    ...i doubt split is calling this himself. If split does call here often on the river i don't think i could take his advice any more lol.

    I do call your river bet, here. You raised from EP which gives you very few nut flush combos and some few combos of QcXx.

    Compared to all the combos I assume you barrel away with and the fact that I don't think the average person bets the river with 2pr, sets, or weak flushes often enough - I assume there are enough bunk combos vs real combos to justify calling with 2pr.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    SplitSuit wrote: »
    Austin wrote: »
    ...i doubt split is calling this himself. If split does call here often on the river i don't think i could take his advice any more lol.

    I do call your river bet, here. You raised from EP which gives you very few nut flush combos and some few combos of QcXx.

    Compared to all the combos I assume you barrel away with and the fact that I don't think the average person bets the river with 2pr, sets, or weak flushes often enough - I assume there are enough bunk combos vs real combos to justify calling with 2pr.

    Point taken which is why i broke down all the combos above. RvR if im triple barreling entire range 99+ how does KT do? I think KT is only profitbale if im barreling 22-88. Doesn't happen often but fortunate for villain this was one of the times.

    I have 42 value combos listed in above... (do quick math in my head... Just posting from my phone). 5 combos that KT beat...

    That doesn't seem right... Just basing it off typical barreling range on turn and using the same range which barrels river 100%. If villain views me as maniac and calls KT here then i don't think its fair to say i won't barrel better 2 pairs and i only have air or nuts in my range. Can easily turn straights, sets, or 2 pairs into bluffs given if i expand SB calling range can push him off a lot of low flushes or 2 pairs himself.

    If villain called all sets or better ok now there are a lot more combos he can beat of mine but if i barrel KJ or KQ thats small chance he is good and pot odds don't justify a call.

    Once i take out 22-88 i don't see how villains call can be +ev at all.

    Ill look at this more tonight when im at home. See if i can break down the combos again.

    Can you please share your combos with my utg range that he beats?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Jc4cQdKcTc

    I raise utg vs sb calling range

    I triple barrel

    My utg range
    22+ \ ATs+\ J10s+ \ AJ+ \ KQ+

    Vs my triple barrel range Whats the worse hand you would call on the river given i bet 75% pot. Each street

    Just wanted to summarize it into one post for my Homework later vs sb calling KT.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    :Jc :4c :Qd :Kc :Tc

    My utg range
    22+ \ ATs+\ J10s+ \ AJ+ \ KQ+

    Turning barreling Range:
    AJ (12 combos)
    AQ (12 combos)
    KQ (6 combos)
    QJs (2 combos)
    JTs (3 combos)
    AK (12 combos)
    JJ (3 combos)
    QQ ( 3 combos)
    KK (3 combos)
    TT (6 combos)
    44 (3 combos)
    AA (6 combos)

    Even if I expand my turn barreling range to include hands with out a club the equity villain has with KT on the river is not enough vs my turn barreling range. If I include hands like AQ, AJ, AK and barrel the turn with those it only increases my value if villain is calling with 2 pair.

    Now lets say I am barreling 22, 33, 55-99 as well. If I bet the river with all of those hands that do not have a club and check back 22-99 that has a club that gives 24 combos of equity towards villain. Now using the range above and the 24 combos that villain bets with 22-99 (not counting 44 as that makes a set).

    Combos Villain loses to: 66

    Combos Villain beats: 29


    total of 95 combos on the river that we bet, again this is including if we bet 22-99 with out a club only!)Villain loses to 66 combos.
    SplitSuit wrote: »
    Austin wrote: »
    ...i doubt split is calling this himself. If split does call here often on the river i don't think i could take his advice any more lol.

    I do call your river bet, here. You raised from EP which gives you very few nut flush combos and some few combos of QcXx.

    Compared to all the combos I assume you barrel away with and the fact that I don't think the average person bets the river with 2pr, sets, or weak flushes often enough - I assume there are enough bunk combos vs real combos to justify calling with 2pr.

    Sorry Split we are just going to have to disagree. I listed my UTG range several times. I've been over this hand what feels like a million times. For KT to be profitable to call 3 barrels my UTG range would have to change a lot.

    If we are going to discuss this more please break down the combos based on my UTG range that bet turn and river. I think I was being generous including 22-99... Actually I did my math a little wrong as 99 makes a straight so even less combos on the river villain beats. I think its very unfair to say I wouldn't bet my 2 pairs but I would bet my 22 here on turn and river. Doesn't seem very logical as both hands are basically bluffs. Yes 2 pair has more showdown value yada yada, but not a lot of showdown value vs baby flushes which is why I think 2 pair can still be turned into a bluff. When I say vs baby flushes, we know villain didn't have a baby flush, but when we are betting the river we do not know what he has or doesn't have.

    I think the worse hand villain can call with is Ax or any club. I don't think sets or 2 pair are +EV.
  • BotswanaNickBotswanaNick Red Chipper Posts: 696 ✭✭✭
    Austin, I admire the perseverance but the stubbornness seems to be an issue. It doesnt seem like you are hearing what others are saying. You say you are barreling 95 combos on the river. This is insane. Perhaps you are doing that, but villain is not expecting it. As split, persuadeo, and others have said, most people are not betting Ax for value on the river in your spot, people often are checking back even a hand like 8c. So for those players that like to bluff at this board, their frequencies will be skewed heavily towards bluffs. Ask yourself honestly, are you betting a set here for value? Are you betting a straight? Perhaps you are, but the player pool in general is not.
  • kytmagickytmagic Red Chipper Posts: 184 ✭✭
    To me, Split is talking about the average person and not your new corrected range specifically. I don't think the average person turns the 2 pairs into bluffs either - at least not at the 25 NL level.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I agree on the average person and myself included. I am very stubborn but I am keeping and trying to open my mind to KT being a +EV call here which is why I expanded the barreling range as wide as possible based on my utg range.

    Average person is not betting 22-99 either on the turn.

    We talked about what hands average person bets here on the turn and it's almost exclusively value.

    So i ask you both based on my UTG range what bluffs does an average player have that fires 3 barrels on this run out? I can't find any hands in utg range that bet this river that KT beats. Even the utg that is bluffing beats KT for the most part. JTs QJs...average person doesn't bet those on the river... Average person doesn't bet a none club hand..so what can hero have that villain beats with KT?

    People keep saying they would call but I haven't got a clear answer as to why they would call and what they beat... Yes, I've heard the why as i either have the nuts or I dont.... But if i dont what are heros bluffs based on utg range?

    I seem more stubborn than usual because I'm not getting precise answers and i broke down all combos and math behind this hand several times. If im wrong then im wrong but i want to know why im wrong and why i should call KT here in the future when im on the other end of the spectrum. I mean its not a heads up match where ranges are wide and 2 pair becomes an easy call. Its utg rnage vs KT on a 4 straight 4 flush board.

    I honestly believe people are looking at this hand and thinking polarized betting rnage on the river and since there are only 2 realistic clubs i can have they think ok i have decent pot odds i call but they are not basing it off utg range and that's the main issue.

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