Hand #21
dmansen
Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
CO OPEN: RANGE (20.4% of preflop range)(250 combos)
77-22,ATo-A9o,KJo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,A5s-A2s,K9s-K4s,Q9s-Q6s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s,65s,54s
CO opens loose here but not with the strongest hands
BTN FLAT: RANGE (36.7% of preflop range)(450 combos)
99-22,AJo-A2o,KQo-K8o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,A9s-A2s,K9s-K2s,QTs-Q2s,JTs-J2s,T9s-T5s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-75s,65s-63s,54s-53s,43s
TT+? 3b
AQ+? 3b
Ax? Flat all AJ and lower
BTN FLAT 3B: RANGE (30.4% of preflop range)(373 combos)
88-22,AJo-A2o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,T9o,A9s-A2s,K9s-K3s,QTs-Q4s,JTs-J4s,T9s-T5s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,43s
99? Re-raise
JTs? Call
KQ? Call
328 combos with card removal.
BTN CALL FLOP: RANGE (64.9% of preflop range)(213 combos)
77-44,AJo-A7o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,T9o,A9s-A7s,K9s-K8s,QTs-Q4s,J9s-J4s,T9s-T5s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-75s,65s
Pair + Draw? Raise JT, flat others
Top pair? Call
Two pair or better? Call 2p, raise sets
I’m giving myself a worst case scenario. I think V often raises with straights, two pair, etc.
208 combos with card removal.
BTN SHOVE TURN: RANGE (23% of floprange)(48 combos)
44,AJo,QJo-QTo,T9o,QTs,J9s-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s
Second or third pair? Check
Draws? Bet OESDs
Again, giving myself a worst case scenario here. We’re getting 2-1 on the river bet, so we need about 33% equity, which we have, even against this tight range. In reality I think V shoves here much more often, making this a clear call.
77-22,ATo-A9o,KJo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,A5s-A2s,K9s-K4s,Q9s-Q6s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s,65s,54s
CO opens loose here but not with the strongest hands
BTN FLAT: RANGE (36.7% of preflop range)(450 combos)
99-22,AJo-A2o,KQo-K8o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,A9s-A2s,K9s-K2s,QTs-Q2s,JTs-J2s,T9s-T5s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-75s,65s-63s,54s-53s,43s
TT+? 3b
AQ+? 3b
Ax? Flat all AJ and lower
BTN FLAT 3B: RANGE (30.4% of preflop range)(373 combos)
88-22,AJo-A2o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,T9o,A9s-A2s,K9s-K3s,QTs-Q4s,JTs-J4s,T9s-T5s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,43s
99? Re-raise
JTs? Call
KQ? Call
328 combos with card removal.
BTN CALL FLOP: RANGE (64.9% of preflop range)(213 combos)
77-44,AJo-A7o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,T9o,A9s-A7s,K9s-K8s,QTs-Q4s,J9s-J4s,T9s-T5s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-75s,65s
Pair + Draw? Raise JT, flat others
Top pair? Call
Two pair or better? Call 2p, raise sets
I’m giving myself a worst case scenario. I think V often raises with straights, two pair, etc.
208 combos with card removal.
BTN SHOVE TURN: RANGE (23% of floprange)(48 combos)
44,AJo,QJo-QTo,T9o,QTs,J9s-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s
Second or third pair? Check
Draws? Bet OESDs
Again, giving myself a worst case scenario here. We’re getting 2-1 on the river bet, so we need about 33% equity, which we have, even against this tight range. In reality I think V shoves here much more often, making this a clear call.
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Comments
I have CO opening a "bimodal" range here: a few monsters he wants to make sure no one folds to preflop and then a weaker range he'd rather not play for as large preflop as he will be oop to someone not folding.
BTN FLAT RANGE: (36.5% of preflop range)(447 combos)
TT+? 3b
AQ+? 3b
Ax? Flat all AJ and lower
BTN FLAT 3B RANGE: (31% of preflop range)(384 combos)
She did not come to the casino to fold, so I have her folding only weak offsuit aces, which would be dominated by the AK that she puts me on here...
99? Call
JTs? Call
KQ? Call
BTN CALL FLOP RANGE (60% of preflop range)(198 combos)
Pair + Draw? Call
Top pair? Call
Two pair or better? Call
This is where there could be considerable differences in how different players interpret "super spewy." At $1/2 the spewy players do so a lot more later in the hand. They might open a super wide range, but have almost a zero 3-bet frequency. That's how I'm modeling this villain. I've value-owned myself often on draw-heavy boards like this because they don't raise hands I would on this board--I would raise all two pair, sets, AJ vs certain opponents. But because the nuts is a straight, I find many villains just call here with anything that's not the nuts, even though they don't ever plan on folding.
BTN SHOVE TURN RANGE (43% of flop range)(83 combos)
Second or third pair? Check
Draws? Bet OESDs and backdoor flush draws
I have 62% equity vs this range. Even if villain doesn't shove any draws, my equity is still around 58% because I have villain shoving all J-X (they spewed with bottom pair so top pair is the nuts here for her!). Clear call.
I think CO is raising to $8 here because since he's aware of the table dynamic he likely has been opening a lot in lp and wants to iso the spewy btn, however has 2 other solid players behind and risks getting 3bet. So perhaps he's opening a wider range here since he's aware that super spewy is calling just about ATC.
CO Tag open to $8 vs $12 RANGE: AA-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A2s,KQs-K6s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s
%FORM: 24.4%
COMBOS#:299
BTN 3bet or call w/..
TT+? 3bets
AQ+? 3bets
AX? call
Super Spewy VILLAIN RANGE: 99-22,AJo-A2o,KQo-K2o,QJo-Q2o,JTo-J2o,T9o-T8o,98o,AJs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J2s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,43s
%FORM: 56.2%
COMBOS#: 689
Would BTN 4bet or call 3bet w/..
99? Call
JTs? Call
KQ? Call
Super Spewy VILLAIN RANGE: 99-22,AJo-A2o,KQo-K2o,QJo-Q2o,JTo-J2o,T9o-T8o,98o,AJs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J2s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,43s
%FORM: 56.2%
COMBOS#: 689
Considering texture btn more likely to raise or call w/..
Pair+draw? Call.
Top Pair? Raise.
2pair+: Raise.
VILLAIN RANGE: 99-22,ATo-A7o,KQo,KTo-K7o,QJo-Q2o,JTo-J7o,T9o-T8o,98o,ATs-A7s,KQs,KTs-K7s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s
%OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 65.2%
COMBOS#: 386
T:
BTN more likely to check or bet w/..
2nd or 3rd Pair? Bet. A lot of her 2nd and 3rd pairs contain gutshots and she's not folding those.
Draws? Bets. Spew factor, tilt, got in 80bb w/ bottom pair.
VILLAIN RANGE: 77-55,33-22,ATo-A7o,KQo,KTo-K7o,QJo,Q9o-Q2o,JTo,J7o,T9o-T8o,ATs-A7s,KQs,KTs-K7s,QJs,Q9s-Q2s,JTs-J9s,J7s,T9s-T8s,97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s,QsTs,Ts7s
%OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 87.6%
COMBOS#: 332
Would I call $160 as played? Yes. I need 41% equity vs his range and I have 81.71% and she's almost always bluffing here w/ a draw or turning a 2nd/3rd pair+draw into a bluff.
I think the TAG's range is rather wide. He knows the Spewy player will call and go deep into a hand with all kinds of weak hands, the smaller bet size is because he knows he doesn't have to risk as much since she will call anything.
%-Form 49.9% #Combos 662
Villain's Range:
AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K7o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o-97o,87o,76o,65o,54o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q4s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s
The button appears to be tilting due to losing the previous hand. Do you think they 3bet or call these hand types:
TT+? QQ+ 3Bet
AQ+? 3Bet
AX? 3Bet AQo+, AJs+, call remaining
%-Form 70.9% #Combos 940
Villain's Range:
JJ-22,AJo-A2o,KQo-K2o,QJo-Q3o,JTo-J5o,T9o-T6o,98o-96o,87o-86o,76o-75o,65o-64o,54o,ATs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J2s,T9s-T2s,98s-92s,87s-84s,76s-74s,65s-63s,54s-52s,43s-42s,32s
You 3bet to $35 and only the button calls.
When building this range consider the hands the button would re-raise with. Would they re-raise or call with:
99? Call
JTs? Call
KQ? Call
%-Form 54.6% #Combos 724
Villain's Range:
JJ-22,AJo-A2o,KQo-K6o,QJo-Q7o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T7o,98o-96o,87o-86o,76o-75o,65o-64o,54o,ATs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T7s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s-42s,32s
Flop:
On such a connected texture consider whether the button is likely to raise or call with:
Pair + Draw Call
Top Pair? Call
Two Pair or Better? Raise
% of Previous Range 31.2% #Combos 196
Villain's Range:
TT,77,AJo-ATo,KJo-KTo,QJo,Q9o-Q8o,JTo,T9o-T8o,97o,87o,76o-75o,ATs,KJs-KTs,QJs,Q9s-Q8s,JTs,J7s,T9s-T8s,97s,87s,76s-75s
Turn:
The turn card changes very little. Do you think the button is more likely to check or bet with:
% of Previous Range 56.6% #Combos 111
Villain's Range:
TT,ATo,KTo,JTo,T9o-T8o,76o-75o,ATs,KTs,JTs,T9s-T8s,76s-75s,KsJs,QsJs,Qs9s,Js7s,9s7s
Would you call $160 as-played? I am getting 2 to 1 on my call and am a 3 to 1 favorite to win so this is an easy call.
The turn is an easy call: if she is able to pay 88BB with bottom pair, she is gonna shove almost all her "value" hands (to "steal" the pot against an apparently none made hand). Also I think that if Hero dub, she may call with a range almost as wide (less weak pair but with many draws) - and we are still way ahead.
2 things I disagree:
CO Opening range
CO is aware of table dynamic, is a TAG, and so surely not a stupid player. I think his range rep either a drawing hand / marginal drawing hand which wants to see a cheaper flop or, sometimes, KK-AA which wants to be called (or raises by super spewy).
I do it exactly like that when I think my Villains aren't smart enough to notice I'm using unbalanced ranges :)
Super Spewy play
She is spewy, loose, and tilted. I expect her to raise all of her "value" hands, whatever street it is.
Preflop, I think she will 3-bet CO pretty wide (QQ+, AJ+, KQ), thinking she is ahead or just to scoop the pot (fear of being outdrawn). But when Hero 3-bet, she will call with a wide range - almost all of her 2-bet calling range.
Flop: I agree she will for sure raise all 2P+. Not sure about TP (so only call)
Turn: will raise all her "value" hand to "steal" the hand from a Hero with overcards.
Surprisingly, I am finding that CRAI might be the most profitable. I am looking for feedback and other assumptions. Here are mine
1. Flop
a. If Hero Bets
i. Villain Raise: 2p, set, tp – because afraid of being drawn out
ii. Villain Calls: str8t, 1pair<tp,oesd,gutshot – slow plays near nuts, but calls weaker hands
iii. Villain Folds: everything else
b. Hero Checks:
i. Villain Bets $75: str8t, all pairs, 2p, sets, oesd,gs
1. Hero Raises All-In and Villain Calls with: str8t, all pairs 9 and higher, 2p, sets, oesd, gs
2. Hero Calls: move to turn
2. Turn: Non 2 Flush
a. Hero bets
i. Villain Raise: 2p, set, tp – because afraid of being drawn out
ii. Villain Calls: str8t, 1pair<tp,oesd,gutshot – slow plays near nuts, but calls weaker hands
iii. Villain Folds: everything else
b. Hero Checks:
i. Villain Bets: str8t, all pairs, 2p, sets, oesd,gs
ii. Villain Checks
3. Turn: 2 Flush
a. Hero bets
i. Villain Raises fd, str8t, 1p, 2p, set because either has or afraid of flush draw
ii. Villain Folds: everything else
b. Hero Checks:
i. Villain Bets str8t, all pairs, 2p, sets, oesd,gs
ii. Villain Checks; everything else
Button as tilted and spewy would 3bet 1010+ and AJo+Also going to call very loose. Button call after all lol. Calls 3bet with entire range.
CO OPEN: RANGE (18% of preflop range)(221 combos)
CO: 88-22,KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,A9s-A2s,K9s-K2s,QTs-Q7s,J9s-J7s,T8s-T7s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s
BTN FLAT: RANGE (67.8% of preflop range)(831 combos)
99-22,ATo-A2o,KJo-K9o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J7o,T9o-T6o,98o-95o,87o-84o,76o-73o,65o-62o,54o-52o,43o-42o,32o,ATs-A2s,KJs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J2s,T9s-T2s,98s-92s,87s-82s,76s-72s,65s-62s,54s-52s,43s-42s,32s
TT+? 3b
AQ+? 3b
Ax? Flat all AJ and lower
FLOP: BU already shown willing to call with weak hands. May not 3bet monsters as it is a dry flop and wants to get even. So setting 2pr+ at 50%
BTN CALL FLOP: RANGE (53% of preflop range)(441.5 combos)
77,ATo-A7o,KJo-K9o,QJo,Q9o-Q8o,JTo,J7o,T9o-T8o,T6o,97o-95o,87o-84o,76o-73o,65o,ATs-A7s,KJs-K7s,QJs,Q9s-Q2s,JTs,J7s-J2s,T9s-T8s,T6s-T2s,97s-92s,87s-82s,76s-72s,65s,[50]99-88,QTo,J9o-J8o,T7o,98o,QTs,J9s-J8s,T7s,98s[/50]
BTN SHOVE TURN: RANGE (83.5% of floprange)(368.5 combos)
77,ATo-A8o,KJo-K9o,QJo,Q9o-Q8o,JTo,J7o,T9o-T8o,T6o,97o-95o,87o-84o,76o-74o,ATs-A8s,KJs-K8s,QJs,Q9s-Q8s,Q4s,JTs,J7s-J2s,T9s-T8s,T6s-T2s,97s-92s,87s-82s,76s-74s,As7s,Ks7s,Qs7s,Qs6s,Qs5s,Qs3s,Qs2s,7s3s,7s2s,6s5s,[50]99-88,QTo,J9o-J8o,T7o,98o,QTs,J9s-J8s,T7s,98s[/50]
Turn: When we check we give green light to BU to bet and they have already shown willingness to go with even weak pairs, so likely to bet all draws too except naked gutshot. This is a snap call for us with 73% equity
Preflop: TAG in the CO opens for four BB ($8) when usually he’d open for $12. I read this as him testing the us, him having a less than stellar speculative hand. Alternatively he may have a monster and hopes for a spew from Spewy on the BU which he can then 4B and take down the pot early. So the TAG in CO is on a wide range for now 43% (529 combos) AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K7o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o,87o,76o,65o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s.
Super Spewy on the BU is titling in a way that has her taking desperate stabs at the pot so yes, she would bet TT, AQ and AT+ the fact she calls puts her in a capped range that eliminates the best of Broadway 24% (296 combos) TT-66,ATo-A7o,KJo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,ATs-A2s,KJs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s. I do not think she re-raises 99, JT, I have taken KQ out of her range.
Flop
Spewy is desperate, did not connect with the board and is just stubbornly hoping for a draw. My pressure with a pot sized bet ($75) is lost on her and serves to intimidate but somehow it’s not enough. She would have bet a pair with a draw, top pair, two pair or better. I remove only sets from her range 61% (146 combos) TT,77,ATo,KJo-KTo,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,ATs,KJs-KTs,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s,76s-75s
Turn
The all in is just more tilted desperation when the 4s hits the board. Her very best hope is a fd on the river. SO she does not bet second or third pair but hopes for a spade on the river. My jacks and their kicker hold. She is on 78% of previous range (115 combos) TT,ATo,KJo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,ATs,KJs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s,76s-75s,Qs9s,9s7s.
In Equilab my hand equity is 62% and her range equity is 38%.
I would call her $160.