Hand #23
Seemed fairly straightforward. We need to go for value on the river.
MP1 OPEN: RANGE (14.4% of preflop range)(177 combos)
AA-66,AKo-AJo,KQo-KJo,QJo,AKs-ATs,A5s-A4s,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s



151 combos with removal.
MP1 FLOP CBET: RANGE (39.7% of flop range)(60 combos)
AA,99,77,AKo-AJo,AKs-ATs,A5s-A4s,KcQc,KcJc,QcJc,JcTc,Tc9c,9c8c
Top pair? Bet
TT? Check
55? Check

60 combos with removal
MP1 TURN BET: RANGE (90% of flop range)(54 combos)
AA,99,77,AKo-AJo,AKs-ATs,KcQc,KcJc,QcJc,JcTc,Tc9c,9c8c
Top pair with non-nut kicker? Bet (maybe they check?)
Flush draws? Bet
55? Not in range.

54 combos with removal
MP1 RIVER CHECK BEHIND: RANGE (88.9% of turn range)(48 combos)
AA,99,77,AKo-AJo,AKs-ATs
Top pair? Check
Sets? Check
This player isn’t good enough to get value when the board gets scary. They check back everything except flushes.
Should we have lead the river? Absolutely. Checking is a disaster, especially when we played the rest of the hand so passively. We can bet/fold something like $100-$120 and get a crying call from sets, AK, maybe even AQ.
MP1 OPEN: RANGE (14.4% of preflop range)(177 combos)
AA-66,AKo-AJo,KQo-KJo,QJo,AKs-ATs,A5s-A4s,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s



151 combos with removal.
MP1 FLOP CBET: RANGE (39.7% of flop range)(60 combos)
AA,99,77,AKo-AJo,AKs-ATs,A5s-A4s,KcQc,KcJc,QcJc,JcTc,Tc9c,9c8c
Top pair? Bet
TT? Check
55? Check

60 combos with removal
MP1 TURN BET: RANGE (90% of flop range)(54 combos)
AA,99,77,AKo-AJo,AKs-ATs,KcQc,KcJc,QcJc,JcTc,Tc9c,9c8c
Top pair with non-nut kicker? Bet (maybe they check?)
Flush draws? Bet
55? Not in range.

54 combos with removal
MP1 RIVER CHECK BEHIND: RANGE (88.9% of turn range)(48 combos)
AA,99,77,AKo-AJo,AKs-ATs
Top pair? Check
Sets? Check
This player isn’t good enough to get value when the board gets scary. They check back everything except flushes.
Should we have lead the river? Absolutely. Checking is a disaster, especially when we played the rest of the hand so passively. We can bet/fold something like $100-$120 and get a crying call from sets, AK, maybe even AQ.
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Comments
I may be a bit high betting so many BDFD maybe the correct play is somewhere in bertween.
Thanks, good analysis. I re-did the hand with updated flop ranges. Frequencies look like: 66% cbet flop, 66% bet turn, checking behind with 80% on the river.
Weakest Broadway: JTs, KQo
Strongest Pocket Pair: AA
I interpreted the weak TAG as playing a bit tighter in this dynamic because the "donkey" in the CO is running hot and the TAG doesn't want to get sucked out on. It seems perfectly reasonable to assume that the TAG reacts oppositely by opening his range to get into more pots with CO, but I went with the former since the TAG is described as weak.
MP1 FLOP CBET RANGE (47% of flop range)(49 combos)
Top pair? Bet most
TT? Check
55? not in range
MP1 TURN BET RANGE: (49% of flop range)(24 combos)
Top pair with non-nut kicker? Bet AK and AQ-AT half the time
Flush draws? only combo draws
55? Not in range.
MP1 RIVER CHECK BEHIND RANGE (100% of turn range)(24 combos)
AA,99, AK, 50% of AQ-AT
Top pair? Check
Sets? Check
This player isn’t good enough to get value when the board gets scary. They check back everything except flushes. At the same time, they are probably not folding any of their range to a river bet as they are so value-heavy.
Should we have lead the river? Yes, have to lead river. Villain is so value heavy and $1/2 will have so much trouble getting to the river and folding a value hand.
my ranges are almost identical to outlier's.
I don't think a lot of weak tags will even bet the river with anything other than KQ or KJ of clubs. I have seen many nits just check those back, so I get to the river with very few flushes in their ranges.
all that being said, I think I am going for 80 and a bet/fold line on this river. Im not really every expecting to get raised and have to fold, my reasoning for the 1/2 pot is that going for 150 into a weak TAG just gets us folds from a lot of his value hands and he owns us with flushes.
MP1 weakest Broadway = JTo
Strongest Pair = AA
MP1 WEAK TAG RANGE PRE: AA-77,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A9s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s
%FORM: 18.6%
COMBOS: 228
CO UNKNOWN CALL RANGE PRE: JJ-22,AKo-A8o,KQo-K8o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o,87o-86o,76o,65o,54o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K8s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s,65s,54s
%FORM: 40.2%
COMBOS: 492
SB SOLID LAG CALL RANGE PRE: TT-22,AJo-ATo,KJo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs-A2s,KJs-K8s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s,65s,54s
%FORM: 20.3%
COMBOS: 249
Would Weak TAG CB into 4w pot w/..
TP? Yes. AT-AK
TT? No. Would check.
55? No. Would check.
WEAK TAG FLOP CB 4W RANGE: AA,99,77,AKo-ATo,AKs-A9s
%OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 29.9%
COMBOS: 59
T:
Would MP1 double barrel w/..
TP w/ Non-nut kicker? I think he would yes. Being that I'm in the BB and didn't 3bet I don't have to have AK/AQ every time, I could have worse Aces that could call, JJ-TT, Kc9c, fd's, 8cTc. If he's a weak tag perhaps he knows at least a bit about what would call his flop cbet.
Flush Draws? No.
55? No.
MP1 DOUBLE BARREL RANGE: AA,99,77,AKo-ATo,AKs-A9s
%OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 100%
COMBOS: 59
R: 5c
Does MP1 check or bet..
TP? I think being a weak Tag he's capable of checking back hands like AT-AJ, I would think he might be capable of betting thinly because of the flush to possibly get a call from a weaker Ace w/ intentions of folding to raise with hands as strong as AQ/AK, but more likely not since I assume that weak Tag implies tight and aggressive preflop but more inclined to lean towards passivity when it comes to river situations such as these w/ a few different hands I could have in my range. I think this is the type of player that would be more inclined to not want to risk getting raised. So yes he likely checks behind TP.
Sets? Again I think that w/ this board texture in his thought process by the river he's likely fearful of draws that got there and wouldn't want to risk getting raised.
MP1 RIVER CHECK BACK RANGE: AA,99,77,AKo-ATo,AKs-A9s
%OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 100%
COMBOS: 59
Given that, should you have lead the river? Yes because I think those hands are still capable of calling at least a 1.5x PSB.
Thoughts?
What is the strongest pocket pair they would do this with? AA
%-Form 10.3% #Combos 136
Villain's Range:
AA-55,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-AJs,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs
Flop:
Think about the range you assigned preflop, and then consider if a Weak TAG would CB into a 4-way pot with:
Top Pair? Yes
TT? No
55? No
% of Previous Range 40.0% #Combos 46
Villain's Range:
AA,99,77,AKo-AJo,AKs-AJs,JcTc
Turn:
After MP1 opens for $8 and then continuation bets in a 4-way pot, do you think they double barrel with:
Top Pair With A Non-Nut Kicker? Yes
Flush Draws? No
55? No
% of Previous Range 100.0% #Combos 46
Villain's Range:
AA,99,77,AKo-AJo,AKs-AJs,JcTc
River:
Given the previous ranges, do you think MP1 checks or bets:
Top Pair? Checks
Sets? Checks
% of Previous Range 100.0% #Combos 46
Villain's Range:
AA,99,77,AKo-AJo,AKs-AJs,JcTc
Given that, should you have lead the river?
No, because he is weak tight, he will not call with anything we beat. He will only call if we are wrong and he beats us.
EXCEPT: I don't see him barreling on the turn with less than AQ. I see him putting me on an Ace, and if I call flop I think he's worried I'd have AJ+.
Small difference, doesn't change the end decision to bet on river, but just a thought.
Preflop:
MP1 opens for four BB with a range of 19% (232 combos) JJ-88,AQo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs-A5s,KQs-K8s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s. The weakest Broadway hand is JTo and the strongest pair to open is JJ.
Flop
MP1 opens with 2/3 of pot ($20). They would open a four-way pot like this with top pair but not TT or 55. Their range is now 38% of previous (71 combos) AQo-ATo,AJs-A5s,T8s,97s,86s,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,Kc9c,Kc8c,QcJc,QcTc,Qc9c,Qc8c,JcTc,Jc9c,Jc8c,Tc9c,9c8c
Turn
MP1 continues with top pair regardless of the kicker and flush draws. 55 is out of his range. His range is 100% of previous (71 combos) AQo-ATo,AJs-A5s,T8s,97s,86s,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,Kc9c,Kc8c,QcJc,QcTc,Qc9c,Qc8c,JcTc,Jc9c,Jc8c,Tc9c,9c8c
River
MP1 checks he would not have bet top pair or sets but he would have called me had I bet. I don’t bet and I don’t know why. I myself would have shoved to get a fold and keep from showing my hand. My hand is a 92% favorite over his range
15.7 / 208
Flop Range : AA,99,77,AKo-ATo,AKs-ATs,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,QcJc,QcTc,JcTc
Think about the range you assigned preflop, and then consider if a Weak TAG would CB into a 4-way pot with:
Top Pair? Yes
TT? No
55? No
34.3 / 63
Turn Range : AKo-ATo,AKs-ATs,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,QcJc,QcTc,JcTc
After MP1 opens for $8 and then continuation bets in a 4-way
pot, do you think they double barrel with:
Top Pair With A Non-Nut Kicker? Yes
Flush Draws? Yes
55? No
85.7 / 54
AKo-ATo,AKs-ATs
Given the previous ranges, do you think MP1 checks or bets:
Top Pair? Check
Sets? No Sets in his range
Given that, should you have lead the river? Yes
88.9 / 48
In his video Split gives a weak TAG MP
all pockets
AJ+
KQ
142 cb 10,7%
He classifies a weak TAG as a nitty player that is postflop showdown-heavy. This kind of player is not thin valuebetting
Think about the fork in his range. What does he do with AJ offsuit? Openraise or openlimp or fold?
9hAc7c
When the A of the 2tone is on the board this tight nits don't have many FDs in their range.
He will cbet with
Sets 99, 77 AA 9cb
TP 39 cb 36%
FD with KcQc is only 1cb!
bdFD with KQhh, AJhh is also TP, AQhh is also TP and AKhh is also TP, 4cb
47cb 40%
Think about the 60% of the times that he CHECKS BEHIND. What possibilities does this give us on the turn?
In general he will not give much action on the turn either.
TURN
2d blank
FD is standard double barrel. Maybe he can get his opponent of a 2nd or 3rdPair.
Think about until which kicker he will 2ndbarrel his TP? On this drawheavy flopboard he will probably 2ndbarrel ALL his TPs.
Split also thinks about that we xraise all-in. In Fold Equity Calculator we can put the figures in. If we think that he will only fold his FD versus our all-in, our equity is 26%.
We need 43% of the times a fold to be break even.
If we think that he will only fold his FD, an all-in raise is burning money.
If we think that this weak TAG will only stack off with 2P , so he will fold all his TPs, an all-in is great.
His 2nbarrel range
Sets 9cb
TP 36 cb
FD 1 cb
46cb 98%
RIVER
5c so the flush arrives
He checks behind
We have to think about which hands he will check behind.
Split think that he will bet his sets even when the flush arrives. So sets are not in his check-behind-range.
Biggest part of his turnrange with which he goes to the river is TP
Most players are BINARY, that means they don't use weights. They don't for example 50% of the times bet TP Jkicker and 50% check behind TP Jkicker.
For example AQ TP Qkicker they always bet for value.
AJ TP Jkicker they always go for showdownvalue.
In this spot we think that he will bet his TP with Qkicker and Kkicker.
And offcourse his nutflush.
His check-behind-range river
TP Jkicker with AJ 12cb
26% of his turnrange
Versus this range we have 100% equity with our flush.
An unexpected showdown
This means your assumptions on previous streets were not correct. With the info you received on showndown, you now have to REFINE his ranges on previous streets.
For example he shows up with 2Pair with 97s.
That means that his openrange is much wider than you put him on.
Situation: $1/$2. I have only been at the table for 20 minutes and the CO has been the main source of action - taking middle pairs to the showdown in big pots.
MP1 (Weak TAG) Opens $8 (4BB). What is the weakest Broadway they would open for this size? What is the strongest pocket pairs they would do this with? 55+. I think they are opening A9+, KQ+ all suited broadways. I see them playing a non-polarized range and I don’t see any wheel A2s-A5s in weak TAGs range that depending on the game they may limp. I think they play pretty straight forward after the flop.
MP1 (Weak TAG) Range
13% 128 combos
55+, A9s+, KTs+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AJo+, KQo
CO (unknown) calls and SB (Solid LAG) call, I call with
Flop:
SB (Solid TAG) checks, I check, and MP1 (Weak TAG) bets $20. What do I think the a Weak Tag would cBet into 4-way pot with:
Top Pair? cBet to protect and think the field
TT? I think the they are cBetting TT+ checking their other pocket pairs
55? Check
MP1 has 11 combos of two-pair plus (A9 2 combos) (Sets 9 combos) about 7% of his range.
MP1 Range
71% of pervious range (90 combos)
KK-TT, AhAs, AdAs, AdAh, 9c9s, 9d9s, 9d9c, 7h7s, 7d7s, 7d7h, As9s+, AhTh+, Ad9d+, KhTh+, KcTc+, QhTh+, Qc9c, JhTh, Jc9c, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8h7h, 7h6h, 6h5h, AhKs, AdKs, AdKh, AdKc, AsKh, AsKc, AsKd, AhKc, AhKd, AhQs, AdQs, AdQh, AdQc, AsQh, AsQc, AsQd, AhQc, AhQd, AhJs, AdJs, AdJh, AdJc, AsJh, AsJc, AsJd, AhJc, AhJd
I am the only caller. There are two player to a $70 turn.
Turn:
MP1 opened for $8 and then cbets into a 4-way pot, do I think they double barrel with:
Top Pair with non nut kicker? Yes … generate most of your folds. I have not shown any aggression so I may not bet the turn to allow him to check-raise.
Flush Draws? NFD cbet, FD check
55? Not in range, would not have bet them on the flop.
MP1 (Weak TAG) Range
Villain (BB) Range
90% of pervious range (81 combos)
KK-TT, AhAs, AdAs, AdAh, 9c9s, 9d9s, 9d9c, 7h7s, 7d7s, 7d7h, As9s+, AhTh+, Ad9d+, KcTc+, Qc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, 9c8c, AhKs, AdKs, AdKh, AdKc, AsKh, AsKc, AsKd, AhKc, AhKd, AhQs, AdQs, AdQh, AdQc, AsQh, AsQc, AsQd, AhQc, AhQd, AhJs, AdJs, AdJh, AdJc, AsJh, AsJc, AsJd, AhJc, AhJd
I call the turn bet, There are two players to a $160 river.
I check and MP1 checks behind.
Given the previous ranges, do I think that MP1 check behind or bets:
Top Pair? Check. He does not want to see a check shove
Sets? If he as a set again I don’t see him wanting to face a check shove. I only see him betting his NFs.
Give this should I have donk bet on the river? All of his made flushes beat me (7 combos). I think if I bet and he NF he shoves (3) and calls with his non-NFs (4). No