analyze stats

racenutalwaysracenutalways Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
I did a print screen of my stats, this is just for the last 7 months, I started calling more PF and 3betting less as the regs have a low F3B these days. Not all, but many. My F3b is 72.53%, but my F3B when I open is 50.98%. might explain why the regs are 3 betting me J2s type hands. I have NEVER caught one reg 5bet shove as bluff, not once. My river call is high. but I use my HUD stats to make calls, if opponents river Afq is 20% and I'm holding 2nd pr, I fold, if their Afq is 35%+ I will call A high. My Cbet is weak tight, maybe because of the bumhunting and being involved with low fold to cbet stats. PLhE7u.jpg

Let me know how you would play me, would you call 72s PF and call flop and turn and bet river???? Would you call KTs in HJ vs my UTG open??? Would you 3bet me more then the average player??? Would you 3 barrel me for value or for bluffs or both??? Would you ?? anything you can add would be helpful.
My calling raises is killing me, I am not hitting hands, my bluffs are being picked off more often then I would expect given my turn and river Afq. VrpoYi.jpg
cMj7VY.jpg

Before Jan 2016, I was calling raises less and had positive winrate on my callsHtJc68.jpg
So what changed??? Let's take a look at stats before Jan 2016 and see if anything jumps out.
ORNPp7.jpg
I'll stop calling raises pre in the small blind, and stick to my fold or 3bet only strategy I've always had in the past and same goes for HJ and CO positions, it sure puts me in horrible situations.

some strange fun facts: in the last 188K hands, my KK was all in vs AA 18 times, my AA vs KK all in 18 times, AAvsAA 7 times, (seems like a lot)? OESD hitting turn 12.6%, flush draw on flop improving on turn 13.5%, flopping pair or better with big cards(AK,AKs) 27.93%.
You guys ahve yourself a very fine day, peace out.

Comments

  • David Kimweli Jr.David Kimweli Jr. Red Chipper Posts: 161
    One stat that stood out was your wide 2-bet calling range for EP, something in the range of .65. Compare that with your 2-bet calling range OTB which is only .1511, your play is completely upside down. The best way to fix this leak is to simply avoid limping in EP, while also trimming your 2-bet calling range in the SB which you've already pointed out.
  • racenutalwaysracenutalways Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
    that stat doesn't add up, CC is suppose to be when you have no money invested and call a raise PF so 65% UTg don't add up, I will have to ask PT4 about that.
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,082 -
    • You are defending steals by calling from the blinds A LOT (likely too much)
    • Your VPIP/PFR gap is too wide imo
    • You are winning too often at showdown (meaning you are likely getting to SD too strongly and thus folding too often before showdown)
    • Your Flop CB is very low, and even moreso considering how low your VPIP is.

    Run a filter for "call 2bet preflop" AND "saw flop". First see how negative that filter is and then flip through 30 hands or so and see if any common things are creeping in (floating too often vs CBs, bluff raising on bad boards, etc.)
    📑 Grab my custom poker spreadsheet pack right now.
    📘 Start the Preflop & Math Poker Workbook today.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Im confused on the ep stats. 3bet 17? How is that even possible. I haven't used pt or hm in a very long time.

    24\15\5

    I would drop 1 or 2% from ep and mp and open up a little more in co or btn.

    3bet of almost 6 can probably get it up to 8%. I understand regs are not folding much to 3bets so just use more value hands. 6% is fine though not a major adjustment.

    With a wide vpip and pfr gap i would imagine your calling range to be too wide. As split suit said your getting to the river with some strong showdowns so maybe calling flop with gutters or 2nd pair and calling turn and then folding river.

    I think vs you i would increase my cbet size since you have a wider range when i have strong hands. Lot of 2nd pair or top pair no kicker type hands.
  • racenutalwaysracenutalways Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
    My Cbet is weak tight, maybe because of the bumhunting and being involved with low fold to cbet stats.
    Yes I know my Cbet is weak as I wrote above. I don't chose to have my cbet at certain %. I base my Cbet vs opponents Fold to Cbet stat+CCPF%+ hand equity. I double and even triple the regs on a regular basis, Vs calling stations, not so much, I am a habitual bum hunter and stay away from reg tables unless they are weak tight regs. My pattern is to Cbet as bluff and semi bluff, TPWK, TPTK, sets, gutters. I check TPTK 20%, check sets 20%. I think "some" balance is important. I'll work on getting my Cbet to 60% at the very min. According to PT4, the average winning player's Cbet flop % at low stakes 6 max is between 54.4% and 81.1%.


    Your VPIP/PFR gap is too wide imo
    Yes, but that's primarily in the blinds and need to fold more vs LP steals I guess. But I don't think it's much of a leak. Post flop is way more important than pre flop IMO.
    According to PT4, it is good, not great, but good LOL
    xXK7w9.jpg






    You are winning too often at showdown (meaning you are likely getting to SD too strongly and thus folding too often before showdown)

    Yup, again I agree, but hero calling isn't gonna raise my BB/100??? All river calls are based on opponent's Af, Afq WTSD W$SD. I will NOT call pot bets
    form a nit-reg holding 2nd pair. I will call A high vs a high river aggression player. I'm a habitual bluff catcher. Can't always be right. But these micros/small
    stakes are very value heavy. I have been working more on this.

    You are defending steals by calling from the blinds A LOT (likely too much)
    I have no idea


    I don' think there is much I can change here.
    czLUYG.jpg

    With a wide vpip and pfr gap i would imagine your calling range to be too wide. As split suit said your getting to the river with some strong showdowns so maybe calling flop with gutters or 2nd pair and calling turn and then folding river.


    Thanks for your time. You're right about one thing, I do call down 2nd pr, but rarely fold once I do decide to call flop and turn. River might be based more on his/her river agg%, W$SD% and history. Gutters are NEVER called EVER EVER EVER, they are folded or 3bet, I 3bet gutters vs high Cbet% and fold vs low to ave Cbet%.

    I think vs you i would increase my cbet size since you have a wider range when i have strong hands. Lot of 2nd pair or top pair no kicker type hands.

    I notice many regs do this vs me. Makes it easier for me to decide if TPGK is worth continuing with or just let go. Bet sizing is important and I study your sizing and note them regularly. I also adjust my range vs those types. Remember I base my calling range to you RFI range, Cbet flop, Cbet turn, Cbet river percentage. I do not just call with out a plan.

    I would drop 1 or 2% from ep and mp and open up a little more in co or btn.

    Yes, my UTG and HJ range was a bit tighter and then I did a database analysis on my range and noticed many hands I was losing with so I have adjusted it to 12.67% UTG, 77+, AQo+ A2s+, AJs+, KJs+, KQo, 76s+
    in the Hijack I ad AJo, 44+. Yes, very nitty range, but database says stick with it.
    CO and BTN range I decided to open up more, CO is 27% and BTN is 37%. Winrate dropped significantly. This is where I have hard time doing adjustments. For 500k hands I win 26bbs/100 OTB with a range of 29.81%.
    Then I adjust my range to 37%, my winrate drops to 14.36bbs/100 in the next 190k hands. Playing nitty seems to get the job done better. If I get aggressive, my winrate faulters.
    This doesn't help LOLoh1OvH.jpg



    Thanks for the advice people you guys are great. I do need to work on more aggression, that's a given. I also need to bluff a LOT less at these limits, they just don't adjust or they adjust by playing tighter(exploitable).

    This isn't helping my winrate any LOL Y6QrD5.jpg
    This will change eventually I hope LOL. Good thing is straight draws are hitting just a wee bit more then they have in the last 6 years. But at the cost of flushes. Would be nice to see flushes, straights and sets near the normal line. One can dream.

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