Hand #24

dmansen

I left KK in BB’s cold-call range to make things worse for us, but it doesn’t make much difference: only 1 combo left on the flop. It’s a clear call, BB’s range is very polarized by the river.

CO OPEN: RANGE (21.6% of preflop range)(264 combos)
AA-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo,AKs-A2s,KQs-K8s,K5s-K3s,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s

BB COLD-CALL: RANGE (5.84% of preflop range)(71.5 combos)
KK-88,AKo-AQo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KJs,QJs,[50]AA[/50]

KK+? AA 50%, left KK in to make things worse for us but it’s often a 4bet.
Ace King? Cold call
TT? Cold call

If there's an error anywhere, it's that I made BB's cold-calling range too loose. I'm going to re-do the hand with a slightly tighter range here.



60.5 combos with removal

BB CHECK-RAISE FLOP: RANGE (34.7% of preflop range)(21 combos)
KK,JJ,AQo,AQs,ATs,AsJs,QsJs

Top Pair? Would bet or check-call
Sets? Check-raise
Draws? Check-raise



21 combos with removal

BB BET TURN: RANGE (100% of flop range)(21 combos)
KK,JJ,AQo,AQs,ATs,AsJs,QsJs

Top pair? Bet with the nut flush draw
Sets? Bet
Draws? Bet
Bluffs? Don’t have any pure bluffs



BB SHOVE RIVER: RANGE (47.6% of turn range)(10 combos)
KK,JJ,AQs,ATs

Kx? Checks
Missed draws? Bet suited draws, check AQo

Would you call? Yes, our hand has 60% equity against this range.

tfazio

Well, hand #24 was one I did not get to so I took some time and went over it.
Part three is range vs range and is a little different but I went through it using AdKd
as was shown. IMHO
Ranges are similar pre flop altho I kept in AA KK not knowing if Villain had a 4 Bet range.
BB check raising similar but I did not have KJs I thought he would check raise this too.
I thought 100% turn betting may be too high. I had him betting 72% only 50% of gutshots. 100% turn bet makes his frequencies drop off to 47% betting
on the river check & folding 53% as AQo AcJC QcJc folds to a river bet from
hero. I had Villain turn betting 72% and river betting 60%
Interesting on the river, Villain is polarized and only has 7 value hands in my example (I included the AA over pairs which I did not eliminate pre as I could not guarantee a 4 bet range) From a GTO view Nuts Air vs Bluff catcher:
Making 1/2 Pot bet on river, Villain can only bluff with 25% (OBF) of his hands,
7 value 1.75 Bluff.
Hero must defend 66% (MDF). This makes more sense when you look at Hero's entire range in this spot as opposed to his holding. If Villain is Bluffing more than 25% than its a 100% call. Since player is unknown we should play more GTO.

tfazio

Had trouble posting file here is public link

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/3793460/Section2-Hand%20%2324.pdf

tfazio

Looked at it again with poker snowie and the problem is the turn call. Snowie has it a fold. On the river Villain has 4 combos of full house. If you give him 6 combos of bluffs you surely can call but I think that is way too optimistic. Poker snowie has only JJ from the turn on. It may be were giving Villain too much credit to be raising with all the gutshots and flush draws. He will have to bluff too much as we see on the river.I think my MDF and OBF numbers are outn the window given the aggressive actions. The whole hand smells of sets from the check raise.

Outlier

This is the first hand in which I had a bit of a problem with the set up: how can BB bet new to the table and have over 300 BBs? I know that there are uncapped $2/5 games, but they are unusual. In other words, typically I would be able to deduce a fair bit abou the BB if they just bought in for $1500 at $2/5...whateva whateva.

CO OPEN RANGE (12% of preflop range)(149 combos)


Again, I went with "weak TAG" = opening tighter than normal vs perceived spewy guy, but his reacting the opposite is also reasonable.

BB COLD-CALL RANGE (12% of preflop range)(149 combos)


KK+? I had villain 4-bet 50% of AA and KK, although I'm not sure I'd 4-bet with AA and KK all the time here 260 BB eff oop.
Ace King? Cold call
TT? Cold call

I decided to go with a typical live $2/5 villain, who in my experience call too liberally preflop. What's $75 if you have $1675 to start? Hence, the larger cold-call range preflop for the BB villain.




BB CHECK-RAISE FLOP RANGE: (18% of preflop range)(24 combos)


Top Pair? Would check-call most, but I threw in a few as a "let's see where I'm at" play
Sets? Check-raise
Draws? Check-raise, but small sizing discounts weaker draws as it does not appear that he is going for a fold with the small check-raise sizing.



BB BET TURN RANGE: (70% of flop range)(17 combos)



Top pair? AK only
Sets? Bet
Draws? Bet
Bluffs? Doesn’t have any pure bluffs



BB SHOVE RIVER: RANGE (67% of turn range)(11 combos)


Kx? Checks
Missed draws? Bet QTs only

The line is extremely polarized by the river. In live $2/5, my default assumption is that an unknown villain is not bluffing enough--ESPECIALLY in a huge pot vs unknown villain, it's very unlikely villain has more than a busted combo draw for bluffs--a hand like AsQs or QsTs. This is not online--most players don't just unload their stack with a triple barrel, especially vs unknown. There is the possibility that a) the BB is very competent or b) BB is a maniac. Both of these possibilities would add bluffs to villain's range, making the river decision tougher...

Would you call? No. Villain very polarized by river and unbalanced toward value. I need exactly 25% equity, and I ended up with 23% vs villain on the river.

Aka Dubs

Outlier wrote: »

"The line is extremely polarized by the river. In live $2/5, my default assumption is that an unknown villain is not bluffing enough--ESPECIALLY in a huge pot vs unknown villain, it's very unlikely villain has more than a busted combo draw for bluffs--a hand like AsQs or QsTs. This is not online--most players don't just unload their stack with a triple barrel, especially vs unknown. There is the possibility that a) the BB is very competent or b) BB is a maniac. Both of these possibilities would add bluffs to villain's range, making the river decision tougher...

Would you call? No. Villain very polarized by river and unbalanced toward value. I need exactly 25% equity, and I ended up with 23% vs villain on the river.

I had almost the exact same ranges. I agree a lot with this statement about live players. very few villains are just going to sit down and cold call pre, c/r, bet, bet on a bluff. I would fold the river without a very specific read, although he might have some bluffs in his range, he has way more value.

If you take 44 and kk out of his range its a call, but its still close by my math. its intersteding that we both disagree with dmansen from the top of this post

NuttedNutter

HAND #24

I think Weak Tag CO would be more inclined to open a more narrow range. Given my image, he's likely leaning towards the value end of the spectrum. If he were described as a Solid Tag I'd be more inclined to believe that he'd have a bit of a wider range w/ intentions of cracking an overpair or something. So he'd likely have a decent amount of sc's and smaller pp's. In this case though perhaps he has a few but not many of those. Something like...

CO WEAK TAG OPEN RANGE: AA-66,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s

%FORM: 16.1%
COMBOS: 197

Does BB Unknown fold, call or 4bet..

KK+? 4bet. Standard for value 3w action.

AK? Calls 50% of time, 4bets 50% of time. My reason is that well says he's new to the table and we don't know too much about him other than he's up a few buy-ins. Also I've been very active running good catching cards and the table has noticed my insanely aggro image so given that w/o other evidence of BB taking AK to SD. Also CO Weak Tag is still in the hand and is likely opening more towards the value side of spectrum. I'd say this is a reasonable read for the info given?

TT? Calls. Similar thought process as AK only w/ TT I believe it's likely right on the cusp of whether he'd 4bet or call. With a hand like JJ I'd be more inclined to assign it to be a 50/50 split between 4bet or call. However here w/ CO Weak Tag still in the hand he's likely more reluctant to 4bet and likely doesn't want to just fold as he still has decent equity in this spot.

BB UNKNOWN CALL 3BET RANGE: JJ-77,AQo-AJo,KQo,AQs-ATs,KQs-KJs,QJs-QTs,JTs,[50]AKo,AKs,KTs[/50]

%FORM: 7.35%
COMBOS: 90



BB Unknown more likely to c-c or c-r...

TP? Check Raise. I don't think he would just lead w/ TP given my image, I believe he'd want to allow me the change to cbet as a bluff w/ my perceived wider range. I could also have weaker K's, a Jack, fd and str8 dr type hands, QQ, TT-99 that could continue. Also being oop w/ the draws possible I could have in my range I'd think he'd want some equity protection.

Sets? Check raise. Same reasoning as TP?

Draws? Check raise. Although I don't know much about how BB Unknown plays draws, but I'm more inclined to think that w/ his fd's giving him about 47.5% equity and my perceived image thinking that I'd be more likely to be cbetting as a bluff, that he'd ch-r vs. call since he has a decent amount of FE.

BB UNKNOWN FLOP C-R RANGE: JJ,AKo-AQo,KQo,AKs-AQs,ATs,KQs-KTs,QTs,AsJs,QsJs,JsTs

%OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 52%
COMBOS: 39

T:

BB Likely to check or continue betting w/..

TP? Bet.

Sets? Bet

Draws? Bet. I think this since well the bet size is just slightly over half pot. I'd think that could be indicative of wanting to continuing as a semi-bluff and not wanting to commit a load of chips.

Bluffs? Bet. Other than his fd's I think he'd likely be thinking along the same fold equity advantage he'd have vs perhaps a weaker K, a Jack, QQ, TT, weaker fd's and str8draws.

BB UNKNOWN TURN BET RANGE: JJ,AKo-AQo,KQo,AKs-AQs,ATs,KQs-KTs,QTs,AsJs,QsJs,JsTs

%OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 100%
COMBOS: 39

R:

KX? Checks. He likely doesn't have AK since I have AdKd and it doesn't make sense to shove KTs, KQs as I could certainly have AK, AA, K's full, J's full. I could also have the previous range I mentioned of weaker K, a Jack, QQ, TT, weaker fd's and str8draws. I think he'd think that I might be capable of betting the river weak with KX which he'd call w/ KTs, KQs. He'd likely also think that I'd check-behind a J, QQ which he beats so it would seem that BB UNKNOWN doesn't have much incentive to shove KX.

Missed Draws? Goes all-in. He bet a bit over half pot on the turn. If he had a hand like AK, KQ he'd likely bet a similar or just a slightly bigger amount on the river as I'd think that he would want to go for some thin value against weak Kx, Jx, QQ, TT. I don't think he would just shove as that would accomplish just getting me to likely fold those hands. After all I've been described as "insanely aggressive" so I've been raising a lot, not calling a lot so I don't think BB UKNOWN views me as a player who would call a river shove w/ those hands. Other than that, there's no other way to win the hand w/ missed draws and if my read is correct that he views me as a player that wouldn't call w/ those hands, then he likely thinks he has enough fold equity for this to be a profitable shove and/or is just frustrated that he missed and is just going for it doesn't want to give up.

BB UNKNOWN RIVER ALL-IN RANGE: AQo,AQs,ATs,QTs,AsJs,QsJs,JsTs

%OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 56.4%
COMBOS: 22

Would I call this as played? Yes. I have 100% equity vs. his river bluff shove range.

Acesalad

Given your image, do you think it changes how a Weak TAG would open-raise from the CO? I think he would open a wider range, since he perceives you to be overly aggressive.
Do you think the CO is raising a very wide range of hands or a more narrow range? Very wide range
%-Form 39.7% #Combos 526
Villain's Range:
AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o-T8o,98o,87o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s

You 3bet to $75 and the BB cold-calls $75.
The BB is new to the table, but we still need to assign a range of hands. Do you think they fold, call or 4bet with:
KK+? 4Bet
Ace King? Call
TT? Call
%-Form 8.3% #Combos 110
Villain's Range:
QQ-88,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs

Flop:

BB checks, you bet $90, and BB check-raises to $220 total.
Consider the hands the BB would cold-call your 3bet with preflop. Are they more likely to check-call or check-raise:
Top Pair? Check-raise
Sets? Check-raise
Draws? Check-call
% of Previous Range 37.4% #Combos 34
Villain's Range:
JJ,AKo,KQo,AKs,KQs-KJs,AsQs,AsJs,AsTs,QsJs,JsTs

Turn:

Is the BB likely to check or continue betting with:
Top Pair? Bet
Sets? Bet
Draws? Bet
Bluffs? Check
% of Previous Range 100.0% #Combos 34
Villain's Range:
JJ,AKo,KQo,AKs,KQs-KJs,AsQs,AsJs,AsTs,QsJs,JsTs

River:

The turn and river do not really change the board texture at all. Do you think the BB checks or goes all-in with:
KX? Checks, This guy has played hand aggressively after the flop. I am giving him credit for a hand that beats KX.
Missed Draws? Checks
% of Previous Range 14.7% #Combos 5
Villain's Range:
JJ,KJs
Would you call this all-in as played? No, he played aggressively after the flop. He is an unknown so I have to give him credit for a hand stronger than mine.

Mark Fleming

Hand 24
Preflop: When facing the table image of an apparently aggressive BU, a weak TAG would open raise in the CO with a wide range. I think any experienced player would do the same. The weak TAG would not have done this 30 to 40 minutes prior, but is frustrated enough after an hour of my aggression, 28% (345 combos) AA-22,AKo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A5s,KQs-K8s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s. I 3B and the unknown in BB calls with a capped but tight range of 13% (158 combos). I take him off of 4B AA-KK,AKo,AKs. Leaving QQ in his calling range is questionable on my part. The TAG is squeezed out.

Flop
I am going to stick to my guns and say that he does not have AA. He does not have a king for obvious reasons. So it is QQ, or he has two reasonable high spades and he is trying to push me off my hand with his equity, in other words, a semi-bluff flush draw. Keeping the BB on PP below top pair (QQ) I assign the range of 22% of previous (30 combos) QQ,KQo-KJo,KQs-KJs,AsQs,AsJs,AsTs,QsJs,JsTs,Ts9s,9s8s,8s7s,7s6s,6s5s. I’ve already taken the possible set of jacks out of his range.

Turn
8c clubs helps neither of us. The $350 is him betting that I am pure aggression with no substance and a hold out for another spade and a hope for his QQ. My hand dominates his range 80/20 and pot odds are 3 to1+. I’ve already taken him off top pair and sets so he continues with 100% of previous (30 combos)

River
I’ve taken him off any king and say that he is all in with bluffs and 53% of previous (16 combos) KQo-KJo,KQs-KJs,9s8s,8s7s. The pot odds are still over 2 to 1, Equilab has me favored at 86/14 so I call. This is fun.

bogata XL

If CO knows that you are aggressive he will not open wide, because he cannot call your 3bets with medium or weak hands OOP.
CO- open range is tighter than normal
88+
A8s
ATo+
KTs+
KJo+
QTs+
JT
T9s
98s
146 combo's 11,9%

BB will 4bet with AA and KK. QQ and AKo I put on filter 50%

His overcallrange is
66-QQ
A8s-AKs
Ato-AKo
KTs+
QTs+
JTs
98s+
114,5 combo's 9,35%

FLOP
I think TP he will x/c.
I think BB will x/r with his Set JJ 3combo's.
With 2P KJ 2 combo's
With Nutdraws and 2ndNutdraws

60% of his range is Ahigh or weak pairs 66-TT

FD is only 10 combo's, I put a filter 90% ( the bottom FD he would x/c)
OESD is 4 combo's QTs
X/Raise-range BB
17,4 combo's 17,1 % of his preflop-overcallrange

TURN
He will bet his Sets and 2P
I put his FD and OESD on a filter 50%
11,2 combo's 64,4 % of his x/raise-range
Flopzilla gives my TPTK 42% equity versus this range.

So I can make the call of 1/2pot

RIVER
The draws bust
He will go all in with Set and 2P
He has hit trips 8 with A8s and 98s . In total 1 combo, because I has put a filter of 50%

In total 6 combo's that beat us.
If we put a filter of 50% on his busted draws then there are 9 combo's with which he continues all-in. That is 80% of his turn-range.

The price that we have to pay is $655 to win a total pot of $2620. Price is 25%
Our equity is 33%. (3 combo's we beat and 6 combo's beat us)
But it depends completely if we put busted draws in his range.
We can CALL.

If we knew that BB is a NIT that never has busted draws in his range, then we FOLD.
Versus an unknown I make the call.

Naïm Terrache

Given your image, do you think it changes how a Weak TAG would open-raise from the CO? Do you think the CO is raising
a very wide range of hands or a more narrow range?

Weak TAG : AA-22,AKo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A8s,A5s,A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s

The BB is new to the table, but we still need to assign a range of hands. Do you think they fold, call or 4bet with:
KK+? 4bet
Ace King? 4bet
TT? Call

BB : QQ-TT,AQo,AQs-AJs,KQs

Flop Range : JJ,AsQs,AsJs,[70]AKo,KQs[/70]

Consider the hands the BB would cold-call your 3bet with preflop. Are they more likely to check-call or check-raise:
Top Pair? Check Raise
Sets? CR
Draws? CR

TUrn Range : JJ

Is the BB likely to check or continue betting with:
Top Pair? No
Sets? Yes
Draws? No
Bluffs? Not in his range

River Range : JJ

The turn and river do not really change the board texture at all. Do you think the BB checks or goes all-in with:
KX? Not in his range
Missed Draws? Not in his range

AP07

This hand seems to come down to putting villain on an accurate check raising range. That's hard to do but against an unknown you can likely fold flop safely with no worries of getting run over. In overly aggro games it's just a call down spot.