in position vs. unknown

persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,095 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited July 2014 in Live Poker Hands
Tables have just combined, my image is meaningless to new player who is the villain. He is early middle aged and looks both serious and a little foolish at once. I cover him.

Effective stacks are about 600, stakes 2/5, late weekday night at small card room. A player has posted, and as not everyone new is quite settled in, the table is seven handed while racks are transferred.

I open Ace :heart 10 :club over a limp from a short stacked player to 25. I do not like A10o particularly from EP, but with the limp, less players to worry about, and the unknown players, I think it will play well and straightforwardly, particularly against the shortstacker should it come to him, since he was already at my table and my image is strong.

Poster folds but I pick up a call from the villain in the small blind, so pot is 65.

Flop is 10 :diamond 4 :spade 7 :spade

Villain leads for one hundred. This is a strange bet, but fits his description, I suppose. I can imagine a typical range being all spade draws, in particular 65 spades, 47 betting to protect, but I am zeroed in on the idea that he has top pair, which is the usual donk lead hand. He could have top pair and a spade draw, which would explain his decision to overbet. I decide that since I don't know him in the least, I should call and evaluate turn. Pot is 265

Turn is the J :diamond , so 10 :diamond 4 :spade 7 :spade j :diamond

Villain again leads 100, a bet that is almost as strange as the first. Often weaker players will set a price on a draw, such as weak lead followed by same bet, but this is huge bet followed by same bet, and I have no idea what is going on, but I am focused in on the idea that he has the same hand as me. I don't think he same bets J10 or any truly strong hand the same amount because now two draws have come in. So I call and pot is 465.

River is the 9 :diamond , for 10 :diamond 4 :spade 7 :spade J :diamond 9 :diamond

Now villain checks. I believe his hand is face up as one pair, and very likely my same hand. I move in for the remaining 350 or so. Thoughts?

Comments

  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,032 -
    If you pinpoint the flop donk for $100 to be top pair and/or draws...why not just raise there for value?

    The turn is usually going to be ugly given the texture (any 3-8 either fills a straight or starts putting up a 4-to-a-straight board. any K/Q/J can improve two pairs and/or give draws a higher 1 pair. any spade gets awkward. etc.) And if he's going to overbet donk the flop with a hand like QT, I don't see him folding if you raise it to $275...
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,095 ✭✭✭✭✭
    At the time, I didn't raise because the bet was so large, so eccentric, and because the guy is completely unknown to me, I wanted to see how the hand developed; but point taken.
  • Golden14Golden14 Red Chipper Posts: 56 ✭✭
    Against a complete unknown where I don't have a good gauge on his tendencies, I am most likely going to give up on the flop. There are a couple of different reasons for this: a) our hand is not that strong and b) on a board as textured as this one, it seems that the villain is most likely overbetting the board for our protection with a hand such as two pair or a set.

    What is your plan if a spade comes and the villain bombs the turn?

    I am all for sticking around the flop when the conditions are favorable, but this doesn't seem like that sort of spot to me.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,095 ✭✭✭✭✭
    @golden14 If a spade comes I am folding; this is one more group of hands I cannot beat and is part of the range I have assigned him, rightly or wrongly. He has to put me on a hand that can call such an absurd bet, and one that's very possible could include the nut flush draw with over cards, given my position, so if he bets, he's likely to have a very strong hand, flush or not.

    I think 47 or more likely 107 suited is possible on the flop, but I do not see him betting a set this hard, so I dismissed a set. I also discount two pair because I am unknown to him; he does not have to donk it up in the blinds with a goofy hand in this spot. However, and again, he is completely unknown to me and anything is possible.
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,785 -
    persuadeo wrote:
    I open Ace :heart 10 :club over a limp from a short stacked player to 25. I do not like A10o particularly from EP, but with the limp, less players to worry about, and the unknown players, I think it will play well and straightforwardly, particularly against the shortstacker should it come to him, since he was already at my table and my image is strong.

    If this is a competent short stacker, this is a terrible move. The fact that the shortie limped tells me he is not competent. I am not a fan of opening ATo anywhere but on the button and very adventurous cut-offs.
    persuadeo wrote:
    Pot is 65.
    Flop is 10 :diamond 4 :spade 7 :spade

    Villain leads for one hundred. This is a strange bet, but fits his description, I suppose. I can imagine a typical range being all spade draws, in particular 65 spades, 47 betting to protect, but I am zeroed in on the idea that he has top pair, which is the usual donk lead hand. He could have top pair and a spade draw, which would explain his decision to overbet. I decide that since I don't know him in the least, I should call and evaluate turn. Pot is 265

    Underpairs too. I see plenty of people think that the Ten is hard to hit so their 99 is probably good. I see the overbet as weak. This is very similar to the thought process of top pair, weak kicker here. I don't see this as Flush draws as much. Maybe a massive check raise with big straight flush draws. James idea of raising seems solid.

    persuadeo wrote:

    River is the 9 :diamond ,
    for 10 :diamond 4 :spade 7 :spade J :diamond 9 :diamond

    Now villain checks. I believe his hand is face up as one pair, and very likely my same hand. I move in for the remaining 350 or so. Thoughts?

    Are you ever getting called by worse here? I seriously doubt that. When you call down two streets and every draw comes in I would rather you think of this as a bluff than a value bet.

    You have got some showdown value here against the range that checks the river. I am not sure you have showdown value versus the hands that check-call you on the river. I think check the river and be done with it.
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  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,032 -
    Doug Hull wrote:
    Are you ever getting called by worse here? I seriously doubt that. When you call down two streets and every draw comes in I would rather you think of this as a bluff than a value bet...

    Especially on a 4-straight board with zero history, +1
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,095 ✭✭✭✭✭
    1. Short stacker is completely incompetent, limping every hand, I am isolating him specifically.
    2. I DO NOT want a call on the river, to be sure! I am specifically trying to fold out a chop, as I believe his hand is one pair, and I can't get any value from K10 anyway.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    @Persuadeo

    Whether I like the play or not, the fact that you shoved river to push your opponent off what you thought to be a chop, shows some high level thinking.

    Now, I want you to think about this statement you wrote, "I should call and evaluate turn." A lot of players say this, but all this phrase really means is that you are bluff catching. You are hoping he stops betting. If your opponent bet $230 on many Turn cards, you'd likely fold. Given his range, you may be making a mistake there. (OBV I don't know this for sure as I don't know your game like that, but generally this is the case) This is just the Turn, if you somehow find a call there, there is still another street.

    If you gauge his range to be such that you beat, or one that you can get him to fold out now or later, then why not consider raising flop? I know his lead was big but you rate to have the best hand often enough here and when he folds you likely fold out a hand which had decent equity against your hand. By flatting, you allow yourself to make mistakes on an array of run outs.

    I would say Raise/Fold flop would be the best line.

    Remember no hand has value until showdown.

    I'm curious to know what you think? :D
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,095 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I have quite a few thoughts but most relevant, i was worried about getting committed with a raise, but it sounds like you think i have room to fold. It sounds like i should be raising or folding the flop at this point.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    Yeah looks like u had 550 behind going into the flop. He leads for 100 and you raise to ~265, when he shoves even though the price is sick- you're up against a super strong range and you should fold.
  • Equus AsinusEquus Asinus Red Chipper Posts: 1
    Raising the flop is perfectly reasonable, however many of the hands that would call/donk-lead are inferior to TPTK, and will possibly bet the turn, while folding to a flop raise. It is a bit higher risk to call given the board texture, but probably more valuable vs. hands like KT or QT, which OP suspected primarily.

    When the J comes on the turn and he makes this same bet, this small bet is not likely JT, but I think JT is still a reasonable possibility, as is T9, or 8T or 78, or 99 as earlier suggested. This is highly dependent on player specific knowledge, which you have none unfortunately.

    The spade flush is a possibility, but wouldn't you expect a turn check if that was his holding?

    The 9 falls on the river, which completes many of the hands he may have, but it makes the flush (which you essentially represented) so he could potentially check his 8 and all 2p because he fears the flush.

    Any 8T will likely call the shove.
    JT and 9T will likely call the shove.

    AT, KT, QT would probably fold. However, playing just against AT for that much money seems unnecessarily risky to me. Given card removals, there are only 6 possible combinations of AT left so you might have fixated on that hand irrationally. Unless you think he can fold 2p or the 8, to a repped flush, shoving might be a losing play.

    Its a tough spot though for sure. Many hands that check the river also beat you and whether they call is player dependent. This is clearly a bluff vs his represented weakness, and that is a pretty good play because he has shown declining commitment to put money into this pot.

    My prediction is that it was not an easy call for him if he decided to make it.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,095 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Alright, so thanks to everyone for the feedback. A few follow-ups:
    1. Does my bluff represent anything? I'm not going to say if I won, lost, or chopped, but it turned out that my assessment on the river was very close to correct. However, I was just playing my opinion of his range versus the board with my bluff, and looking back, I'm wondering if I told much of a story by the river. Further, if I rep nothing by playing this way, then it makes the suggested raise/fold line even better.
    2. A visiting pro happened to be joining the table as well, and was taken aback by the hand. He said, "I know what you are trying to do, but [your opponent] backs into a bunch of stuff there." I thought that my opponent would continue to bet for value, maybe even make another "same bet" if he had improved against my passive line. I was surprised by this; one of the big themes of this hand is that we are both completely unknown to each other, and that he villain should usually play fairly straightforwardly or at least not expect me to bluff shove the river; what do you think of this fellow's opinion?
  • tagliustaglius Red Chipper Posts: 290 ✭✭
    I like using your position and showdown value on the river with a check.

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