Fold with QQ preflop against fish

rjevskiyrjevskiy Red Chipper Posts: 90 ✭✭
edited March 2015 in Online Poker Hands
This is the hand

Holdem NL ($0.10/$0.25)
Seat 1: BB ($28.34 in chips)
Seat 2: UTG (Villian1) ($15.00 in chips)
Seat 3: UTG+1 ($33.33 in chips)
Seat 4: UTG+2 ($17.43 in chips)
Seat 5: HJ (Villian2) ($25.78 in chips)
Seat 6: CO (Hero) ($24.85 in chips)
Seat 7: BUT ($9.15 in chips)
Seat 8: SB ($57.80 in chips)
SB: Post SB $0.10
BB: Post BB $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [ :Qd:Qc ]
UTG: Call $0.25
UTG+1: Fold
UTG+2: Fold
HJ: Raise $1.00
CO (Hero): Raise $3.60
BUT: Fold
SB: Fold
BB: Fold
UTG: Allin $14.75
HJ: Fold
CO (Hero): Fold


Have 3K hands with Villian1 in UTG. He is VPIP: 21, PFR: 7, 3Bet: 2 (24/999), 4Bet: 5 (4/86), Limp/Raise: 4 (3/79), Limp/Call: 80 (63/79), ATS: 18 (55/298).
I had time and did look at his HUD and did see that from EP he is more aggressive from EP like his 4Bet overall 4/86 but from EP its 3/7 and his Limp/Raise only comes from EP. He has 4Bet+ Range showing KK (3 times).
I felt that he had a hand range KK+, AK and therefore I folded.
Now that I am looking at PT4 and how this Villian plays I see that he Raised with KK+ and did not limp but did limp with AK (but only 8 hands). I did find 4 cases when he did limp and went ALLIN but only one shows his cards which is JTs from EP.
Was it a mistake to fold?

Comments

  • Chacarron91Chacarron91 Red Chipper Posts: 20
    Hi Rjevskiy,

    Mathematically you have to call. Vs a range of QQ+,AK(worse case scenario range here that doesnt factor in random JTs or small PPs spazz) you have 40.2% EQ.

    The equation we use to figure out if we call or fold here is " Risk/(risk+Reward)" we need to call 11.4(the risk) and the rewards is (his)15 + (HJ) 1 + (our) 3.6 + (blinds) .35 ... so

    11.4/11.4+ (15+3.6+1+.35) = 11.4/(11.4 + 19.95) = 11.4/31.35 = 36% ... so we need 36% Eq and we have 40.2 (and rememebr this EQ is not factoring the random spazz's he does)
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,057 -
    If you've seen him do this with JTs before, then snap it off imo.
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