going with your gut vs math

JulesJules Red Chipper Posts: 441 ✭✭✭
Well cool...first tourney post in this section. :) I played a $30 bi on Bovada last night. This isn't a real ground breaking hand question, but it's something I face and need to work through.

blinds 200/400/40 15 min levels 5k ss

Me HJ: 23,335 (58bb) :Ah:Jd
Villain CO: 18,513 (46bb)
SB: 3144 (8bb)

BT and BB both extremely short as well < 10 BB range

I raise to 1207
CO 3 bets to 2986
SB ships

Pot 8057
so I have to call 1937

Now I know this should be an easy call mathematically right? But villain was playing super tight and when he snap 3 bets I paused and had a bad feeling. I hadn't been overly active either, but definitely had played more hands then him/her. Before I continued in the hand I started to think ahead about villain's range. Because he hadn't played a hand in a while I had him in a 3-5% range. So if I just flat here what do I do on the flop if I miss or even if I hit? If I hit my J and villain has QQ or KK then what? Also can villain come over the top and re raise if I flat?? (something I wasn't sure about) So when do we go with our gut vs the math that doesn't lie? Thanks!

Comments

  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2016
    Pros:
    SB's shove doesn't reopen the betting to the CO.

    Cons:
    If you call, you're oop vs. V2 (in CO) who's got a boatload of chips
    If you call and hit your hand, V2 has range advantage (he should have a better Ace or a pair stronger than a J)
    Unless you hit KQT, trips or three :HEART:s — it would be hard for you to continue with your hand if V2 c-bets flop.


    I'm not sure the math says for you to call.
    But let's check:

    we can assume CO is calling
    so if you call, pot is 9432
    it's 1937 for you to call

    you're getting almost 5 to 1 to call
    If SB is shoving with 13% of hands - which include all suited Aces, AK-AJos, all pocket pairs and KQs, KJs and QJs for good measure...
    and
    CO is 3-betting with 5% of his range which include 66+, AKs-AJs

    we've got almost 25% hot cold equity...
    so this makes it a call...

    (if we range V2 at 3%, TT+, AJs+, we've got 20% equity)


    BUT

    because one player behind us still has chips (a lot of chips) - there's no guarantee that we'll be able to realize our entire hot/cold equity... meaning we may have to fold on the flop

    for all we know, SB - who's shoving knowing that he's getting called by at least ONE player - has got us already smoked and we're just playing for a side pot.

    I'm not one to advocate for MUBs - but in range vs. range, I don't see us faring very well (esp. against TWO ranges!)
    I see AJos as being a hand like 99 or JTs - that's strong enough to raise from HJ but can't really stand a 3- or 4-bet.
    (Although, heads up... I call SB)

    if we call - pot is nearly 10K and we're left with ~21K.
    I sort of agree with you that I don't see much value in flicking in 2K more in hopes to hit the perfect flop and hold.
    If I knew both Vs to be spewy and LAGgy - then it's an easy call. But when you say CO's range is so tight, I'd find a muck.

    The math behind seeing all 5 cards says to call.
    But there's no guarantee that we will see anything more than the flop - so I think your instincts here are correct. Fold is a good choice.



    BTW - Welcome to RCP's NEW Tournament Section!!
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,004 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2016
    Yeah fold. @kagey dissected it pretty well.

    If villain in CO is a loose 3 bettor we could 4 bet jam and be compensated vs the short stack w/ all the dead money in pot.
  • JulesJules Red Chipper Posts: 441 ✭✭✭
    Wow! I honestly didn't think this was the answer I was going to get! Thought I was going to be told don't be so nitty!!:) @kagey great break down and @Monad I'm glad you agree. :) I'm pretty stoked to know my thought process PF was on target. I second guessed myself when I saw the result. CO actually 3 bet me with A6o and the SB had same hand as me. So we would of chopped, but I'm wondering if I could have created a nice side pot with CO?
  • DianaDiana Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    @Jules great hand to bring to the forum as I enjoyed reading and learning from it. Very educational and in depth walk through with @kagey and additonal comments from @Monad.
  • GazelligGazellig RCP Coach Posts: 74 ✭✭
    I really like the analysis in this thread, but there's one thing that hasn't been discussed yet and that's that the 3-bettor is not incentivised to bet postflop since there's no side pot (if I read the hand correctly). He should, in theory, play pretty honestly post flop and as such you should be able to realise more of the hot and cold equity talked about here. Great thread, interested to hear what you think about that.
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,004 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2016
    Gazellig wrote: »
    I really like the analysis in this thread, but there's one thing that hasn't been discussed yet and that's that the 3-bettor is not incentivised to bet postflop since there's no side pot (if I read the hand correctly). He should, in theory, play pretty honestly post flop and as such you should be able to realise more of the hot and cold equity talked about here. Great thread, interested to hear what you think about that.

    @gazellig That's also a good point, but we have to have a very disciplined/thought out post flop plan if we flop TP and villain continues aggression having invested 15% of our stack pre. Do we just default stack off with tp here this shallow against an unknown, or nit-fold if villain breathes on it? Both seem like very shitty options, so I just avoid the situation most chances I get.
  • JulesJules Red Chipper Posts: 441 ✭✭✭
    Monad wrote: »
    @gazellig That's also a good point, but we have to have a very disciplined/thought out post flop plan if we flop TP and villain continues aggression having invested 15% of our stack pre. Do we just default stack off with tp here this shallow against an unknown, or nit-fold if villain breathes on it? Both seem like very shitty options, so I just avoid the situation most chances I get.

    This is why I posted. Both thoughts went through my head. As I mentioned,that was already clarified by @kagey, wasn't sure if villain could come over the top if I flatted. And then as @Monad said do I want to be committing my stack when flopping TP. If I take a more passive path of check call...do I continue turn and river? Why would I call flop to only fold turn/river to further aggression? Even though my call mathematically would be correct...I felt the call would commit me. Spots like this make wonder if this why I have never won a live tourney. Online yes, but not live.

    @Gazellig you really think the flop would keep him honest? If you say in theory it would. Then in theory I should have called.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,669 -
    edited August 2016
    Jules wrote: »
    Monad wrote: »
    @gazellig That's also a good point, but we have to have a very disciplined/thought out post flop plan if we flop TP and villain continues aggression having invested 15% of our stack pre. Do we just default stack off with tp here this shallow against an unknown, or nit-fold if villain breathes on it? Both seem like very shitty options, so I just avoid the situation most chances I get.

    This is why I posted. Both thoughts went through my head. As I mentioned,that was already clarified by @kagey, wasn't sure if villain could come over the top if I flatted. And then as @Monad said do I want to be committing my stack when flopping TP. If I take a more passive path of check call...do I continue turn and river? Why would I call flop to only fold turn/river to further aggression? Even though my call mathematically would be correct...I felt the call would commit me. Spots like this make wonder if this why I have never won a live tourney. Online yes, but not live.

    @Gazellig you really think the flop would keep him honest? If you say in theory it would. Then in theory I should have called.

    Commitment thresholds in tournaments are different. I don't mind folding pre, but for the reasons Gazellig gives concerning the dry side pot you should be able to negotiate the hand okay post-flop if you call.

    Your pre-flop raise size seems large for a tournament, but maybe fashions are trending in this direction again?
    Moderation In Moderation
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,004 ✭✭✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    Jules wrote: »
    Monad wrote: »
    @gazellig That's also a good point, but we have to have a very disciplined/thought out post flop plan if we flop TP and villain continues aggression having invested 15% of our stack pre. Do we just default stack off with tp here this shallow against an unknown, or nit-fold if villain breathes on it? Both seem like very shitty options, so I just avoid the situation most chances I get.

    This is why I posted. Both thoughts went through my head. As I mentioned,that was already clarified by @kagey, wasn't sure if villain could come over the top if I flatted. And then as @Monad said do I want to be committing my stack when flopping TP. If I take a more passive path of check call...do I continue turn and river? Why would I call flop to only fold turn/river to further aggression? Even though my call mathematically would be correct...I felt the call would commit me. Spots like this make wonder if this why I have never won a live tourney. Online yes, but not live.

    @Gazellig you really think the flop would keep him honest? If you say in theory it would. Then in theory I should have called.

    Commitment thresholds in tournaments are different. I don't mind folding pre, but for the reasons Gazellig gives concerning the dry side pot you should be able to negotiate the hand okay post-flop if you call.

    Your pre-flop raise size seems large for a tournament, but maybe fashions are trending in this direction again?

    The point about lowering raise size is a good one. Standard is still 2-2.5x BB, and I don't foresee see that changing.
  • JulesJules Red Chipper Posts: 441 ✭✭✭
    @TheGameKat & @Monad I adjust my raise sizes most of the time by the number of blinds I have. For instance when we are early in a tourney 100bbs + and no one folds I like to raise anywhere from 3-5bbs. I still get callers, but fewer. As stacks change and blinds get more expensive I adjust. Also I will raise to whatever size it takes to collect pots pre or only get 1 caller. Kind of like the pain threshold @Christian Soto talks about. Nobody folds pre anymore. It's tough and this why I have worked so hard on my post flop game. Typically I am in the 2-2.5 range. Any thoughts in regards to that strategy?

    In this particular hand I was hoping to isolate the SB. Didn't think the 2nd largest stack to my left would spaz 3 bet me with such a crappy hand. When you do raise a little larger, particularly in online donkaments against a short stack, most players get out of your way knowing you can possibly take the player out. If you are 3 betting in that particular situation it's for good reason. At least that is how I would interpret it. Why would I raise there to fold to barely another 2k? I just found myself in a weird spot. Of course after I saw the result I wish I would of flatted... :( Even if I would have popped it to only 1 k the situation wouldn't have changed. It really seems that most of the time the math is correct....just kills me!!! This is where the balance in a tourney is the toughest for me. And this why this hand was nagging at me. No room for error. I really like the thoughts you guys have put out there.
  • akashraakashra Red Chipper Posts: 12 ✭✭
    Gazellig wrote: »
    I really like the analysis in this thread, but there's one thing that hasn't been discussed yet and that's that the 3-bettor is not incentivised to bet postflop since there's no side pot (if I read the hand correctly). He should, in theory, play pretty honestly post flop and as such you should be able to realise more of the hot and cold equity talked about here. Great thread, interested to hear what you think about that.

    Good addition/point.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Gazellig wrote: »
    I really like the analysis in this thread, but there's one thing that hasn't been discussed yet and that's that the 3-bettor is not incentivised to bet postflop since there's no side pot (if I read the hand correctly). He should, in theory, play pretty honestly post flop and as such you should be able to realise more of the hot and cold equity talked about here. Great thread, interested to hear what you think about that.
    A player in position who's 3-betting light (or a made hand) would probably not play "honestly" post flop.
    Had he simply called OP's raise - then I'd be more inclined to agree.
  • GazelligGazellig RCP Coach Posts: 74 ✭✭
    The guy who 3-bets still has to have the best hand at showdown versus the shortstack so it makes no sense for him to try and bluff you out. He'd essentially be betting to potentially win nothing.
  • Matt BerkeyMatt Berkey Red Chipper, RCP Coach Posts: 278 ✭✭✭
    people cray cray though

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