Call a shove with the best hand (atm) or fold to equity draw

thedubonic1thedubonic1 Red Chipper Posts: 3
edited December 2014 in Online Poker Hands
In this hand I have the best hand preflop and on flop and put to a decision knowing that villain might have a strong equity draw.

$25.00 NL Texas Hold'em -

Seat 5: Button : Villain ( $19.38 ) - VPIP: 32, PFR: 20, 3B: 2[*]0, AF: 5.3, Hands: 41
Seat 6: sb: Hero ( $32.09 )

Hero posts small blind [$0.10].
Player7 posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ :Qh:Qc ]
Player8 folds
Player9 folds
Player2 folds
Player3 folds
Villian: raises [$0.75]
Hero raises [$2.65]
Player7 folds
Player5 calls [$2.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ :2d , :Ts , :Js ]
Hero bets [$4.31 USD]
Player5 raises [$16.63]
(Here I put him on a draw because he pushed earlier with a small flush draw.)

Hero calls [$12.32]
Player5 shows [ :Ks , :Qs ]
Hero shows [ :Qh , :Qc ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ :5s ]
** Dealing River ** [ :Jd ]

Player5 wins $36.85 from main pot

My question is knowing that my hand is best preflop and on the flop, but a 2/1 dog to the river. How could I have played this differently ?

Do I fold if we know villain has the worst hand now but more equity in the whole draw with over 15 outs?


  • thedubonic1thedubonic1 Red Chipper Posts: 3
    The exact equity for villain's hand of :Ks:Qs is 63.03%
    And my hand of :Qc:Qh is 36.03% to showdown.

    Even though I am a winner as of when the chips go in.

    This situation doesn't come up often but is it better to fold if you have an idea your opponent has over 13 outs?
  • Morgan_BMorgan_B Red Chipper Posts: 262 ✭✭
    It depends how much money is already in the pot. If you're risking $12 to win $24 you need 33% equity. If there's more money in the pot to begin with (or if the raise isn't as large) it makes the call more attractive. It's tough to know exactly how many outs your opponent has and it takes 14 to become a slight favorite. So if you have a pair and put your opponent on an ace high flush draw with 12 outs you always want to put your money in. Even if you know they have 15 outs there's almost always enough already in the pot to justify going all-in.

    I think you might be able to fold to the raise if you consider the range he's shoving with. It's either a big draw or a set. :As:Qs may be your best case scenario unless you think he's shoving with top pair ( :Ah:Jh ). Having said that I probably would have played it the same way, yikes! I'd like to hear what everyone else thinks.

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