How should I be thinking in spots like this?

gwjones00gwjones00 Red Chipper Posts: 27
My first post!

Ran into this doozy on Sunday.

Game is 1/3NL. I have $300 on BTN. Villain covers from MP2. I don't have a lot of history with villain, but I know he's fishy - opens too wide preflop (basically any connected cards (suited and unsuited), gap connected (suited and unsuited), any pair, any two Broadways).

UTG raises to $11. Two callers to me. I call with :7h :5h . Preflop pot $43 less drop = $38.

Flop :7s :3c :5s. Checks to me. I bet $20. Original preflop raiser folds, field better folds. Villain check raises to $60. I tank and call. At this point I'm ranging villain on made hands (16 combos of 64, 3 combos of 33) and bluffs :As :XS:

Turn Jd. Villain now moves all in.

What to do!

Comments

  • YoukaiYoukai Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    Well lets run some numbers. Based on your raising range for him we have something like: AA-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo-J9o,T9o-T8o,98o-97o,87o-86o,76o-75o,65o-64o,54o-53o,43o-42o,32o,AKs-ATs,A5s-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s-42s,32s

    What kind of hands would he check-raise? I'm going to guess overpair+, OESD, and nut flush draws. I think he would probably lead with top pair and non-nut flush draws. So his check raise range is: AA-77,55,33,86o,75o,64o,53o,42o,A4s,86s,75s,64s,53s,42s,AsKs,AsQs,AsJs,AsTs,As3s,As2s

    On the turn what does he shove with? Lets say overpair+, nut-flush draw. We will take the OESD out as the bluffs he gave up on. So on the turn his range is: AA-JJ,77,55,33,75o,64o,53o,75s,64s,53s,AsKs,AsQs,AsJs,AsTs,As4s,As3s,As2s,8s6s,4s2s

    That makes our equity 50.22%. So if you accept my ranges and estimations then you are getting about even odds. You have $229 left in your stack and there is 387 in the pot you can win. You break even on 1-to-1 odds and you are getting 1.7-to-1. So based on the math it seems like a clear call. Having said that I think this might be a little optimistic. Live players tend to be tighter than this.

    So lets say he doesn't shove overpairs or two-pair since it's such a wet board. That leaves: sets, straights, and nut flush draws which I think is probably a little more reasonable. Now his range is: JJ,77,55,33,64o,64s,AsKs,AsQs,AsJs,AsTs,As4s,As3s,As2s,8s6s,4s2s

    With that being his range we are getting CRUSHED with only 24.79% equity making it a clear fold. So best case scenario we are getting good enough pot odds to call. More likely though we are in bad shape. As much as it sucks I think this is probably a "sigh and fold".
  • gwjones00gwjones00 Red Chipper Posts: 27
    Thanks.

    The thing that pained me about this hand was that I made a flop call without a turn plan, and then got lost when V shoved the turn.

    What I didn't do is slow down and think through the two questions: "Why am I calling the flop?" and "What will I do on the turn?"

    I ranged villain on made hands (16 combos of 64, 3 combos of bottom set, 1 combo each of top set and middle set), and nut flush draws (10 combos). So, I am twice as likely to be behind with top two.

    What I didn't do was consider that villain would take this line with an overpair. If we consider TT, 99 and 88 on the flop, that adds 18 more combos that we beat on the flop.

    Interested in hearing from the group about what people do to help make sure they range completely instead of just looking at the board and falling into a MUBs shell.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    gwjones00 wrote: »
    Thanks.
    I ranged villain on made hands (16 combos of 64, 3 combos of bottom set, 1 combo each of top set and middle set), and nut flush draws (10 combos). So, I am twice as likely to be behind with top two.
    in a raised pot you can typically reduce the 16 possible combos of gappers or connectors down to 4 - because suited gappers/connectors are most likely.

    top two is as strong as a set.
    against a wild player - this is one of those times you have to hold your nose and call.

    If V had :AS: :3S:, :6S: :8S: or hands such as these - he's never checking once he's started to bloat the pot. And all over pairs are shoving as well.
  • BotswanaNickBotswanaNick Red Chipper Posts: 696 ✭✭✭
    I agree with Kagey, I'm not feeling amazing about this, but I think you need to commit with a hand this strong. You are blocking sets quite hard, so unless villain is super passive, I don't think you can consider folding.

    Pre-flop, I don't completely hate the call but I would rather be deeper, only 100bb deep its going to be hard to make enough with big hands to counter all the times you wiff and must check/fold.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2016
    This is a pretty clear call. We are way at the top of our range.

    Our hand is beating a large number of his value shoves on Turn. We also block sets. It also beating all of his bluffs.

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