JJ + Turning my hand into a bluff

AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited August 2016 in Live Poker Hands
Villain pretty loose aggressive and has run up a stack of about $1500. I am sure he thinks he is playing well, but he is just a super luck box either out flopping people or just making a crazy amount of hands. Estimated style is around 60/30. Usually his bets represent what he has. Made hands are 50%+ pots and 2nd pair or draw type hands are like 1/3 pot size bets.

Hero's image has been nitty. Only showed down AA and a set so far.

$1/$2
UTG (Tag $300) open $15
UTG2 (villain $1500) calls $15
Hero ($225) :Jc :Js calls $15

*Here UTG is a loose player but a tight opener like a 40/8 style which is why I elected to flat instead of squeeze. Also typical raise size is $10, so opening $15 is usually top of his range.

Flop ($45) :Ad :6h :7h
checks x3

Turn ($45) :Ad :6h :7h :3d
UTG check
UTG2 bets $30
Hero calls $30
UTG folds

River ($105) :Ad :6h :7h :3d :9d
UTG2 thinks for about 10 seconds and bets $35
Hero snap raise to $100
Villain $65 to win $240 (4 to 1)

I don't hate my raise size, but don't love it either because I am basically only repping a flush here. Player is a bit loose, but I know any type of raise is hard to call with Ax or two pair here. I don't expect him to fold a flush or straight obviously.

On the turn I thought he was on some type of draw or possible had 7x maybe Ax, but thought Ax would bet the flop. On the river I was 99% sure he didn't have a flush because I never seen him bet small with a made hand.

Line check / thought process?

Comments

  • Renato_LRenato_L Red Chipper Posts: 190
    edited August 2016
    I think I get what you're trying to accomplish with your line. Your bet size is such that it looks like a value bet that you want villain to call, therefore folding out Ax type of hands, including up to AK, is that correct?

    Whether villain believes you and your line is successful is villain dependent. Is villain a nitty, thinking type? If so, there is merit to your line. If not, then I'd just turn JJ into a bluff catcher and call, rather than turning it into a bluff.
  • NotamNotam Red Chipper Posts: 53
    I prefer treating JJ as a bluf-catcher here. Without a deeper read, I don't generally expect folds from LAGs that are running well and playing with a LOT of "house money." We're getting 4:1 and there are plenty of hands held by villain that call a $15 pre-flop open and stab OTT and OTR here that we beat. 88-TT and maybe some blown straight draws and FDFDs come to mind.
  • Ranceg29Ranceg29 Red Chipper Posts: 145 ✭✭
    Agree with Notam. You said he had a bet sizing tell that smaller bets were weak and here he bets 1/3 pot in which your JJ stand to be good plenty. I wouldnt want to see if hes capable of folding two pair here. Even an Ace prolly gives a crying call.
  • David Kimweli Jr.David Kimweli Jr. Red Chipper Posts: 161
    I agree with Notam and Rance's analysis of the hand. You have a strong read on villain that he'd rarely take this line with Ax and never with flushes, so what hands are you trying to fold out with your raise? You already noted that his sizing OTR defines his range to busted draws and weaker pairs he's betting for thin value. In the unlikely event villain does have A/WK I rarely see him folding given the odds he's getting on the raise.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I agree with the overall advice given our odds and his sizing tell.

    I think the question becomes which is more profitable

    A) bluff catching and running into Ax or a small 2 pair hand that bet small because they were scared of the flush

    B) turninf JJ into a bluff and getting Ax to fold majority of the time?

    Villain ended up having A9 here for river two pair which i was pretty surprised with the line he took even though it is pretty standard... Just didn't see him doing it. Given the fact he tanked called top 2 raising here maybe larger might be more profitable than bluff catching vs regs..maybe raising to $120 and polarizing our range more.

    Later i learned this villain does not like to fold much. He made a smart move and cashed out once his stack dropped from 1500 to 1k and his overall luck started to run out. Good job by him financially.
  • billconklinbillconklin Red Chipper Posts: 102 ✭✭
    The board has an overcard, three to a flush, and the possibility of a straight, however remote.

    You have inferences of a certain style villain plays, but "60/30" tells you he is a LAG. In the end, the inferences turned out not to be correct at least in this hand. His bet sizing led you down the wrong path.

    Against a LAG, generally, my approach with second pair in such circumstances as this is to regard my hand is having showdown value, and not regarding it as a "value hand."

    Why not just call his bet on the river and show your hand down?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The board has an overcard, three to a flush, and the possibility of a straight, however remote.

    You have inferences of a certain style villain plays, but "60/30" tells you he is a LAG. In the end, the inferences turned out not to be correct at least in this hand. His bet sizing led you down the wrong path.

    Against a LAG, generally, my approach with second pair in such circumstances as this is to regard my hand is having showdown value, and not regarding it as a "value hand."

    Why not just call his bet on the river and show your hand down?

    Felt like I was beat, but also felt like he wasn't strong enough so I can get him to fold. End of the day I need to remind myself people at the casinos don't come to fold and I just need to be patient and value bet heavy. Avoid the thin value bluff spots to reduce the variance.

    I played a hand yesterday where I was in the BB with 96.
    Flop ($8) AK2r
    Hero leads $10
    Mp calls
    Turn and river go check check both bricks.

    Villain shows down J8o. Apparently fishing for runner runner straight. 95% of the time I think my bet takes down this pot if he doesn't have Kx or Ax hand. I was shocked to see J8. That was my only bluff of the night and glad i learned very cheaply that this player could not be bluffed and doesn't have a fold button.
  • billconklinbillconklin Red Chipper Posts: 102 ✭✭
    Sure. Maybe a second barrel on the turn, instead?

    Personally, I like to bluff on earlier streets and have a hand that has some equity if called.

  • AshleyAshley Red Chipper Posts: 50
    edited August 2016
    sorry... didn't know it was live.......
    But I agree with everyone that just bluff catching is fine. However, making a small raise may entice a loose player to call with weaker Hands. such as 9X or TT.
  • Renato_LRenato_L Red Chipper Posts: 190
    Austin wrote: »

    Felt like I was beat, but also felt like he wasn't strong enough so I can get him to fold. End of the day I need to remind myself people at the casinos don't come to fold and I just need to be patient and value bet heavy. Avoid the thin value bluff spots to reduce the variance.

    This statement is cash money...

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