Folding a set

GarrettGarrett Red Chipper Posts: 54 ✭✭
edited January 2017 in General Concepts
Effective stacks = 200

Hero has Pocket 8's on the button. Table limps around (6 limpers including hero).

Pot = $10 after drop

Flop comes: 86K - checks around to hero who bets $15. Villain calls from EP and the rest of the table folds.

Turn comes 7 and villain checks. Hero bets $40. Villain raises to $80.

Hero ?

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Comments

  • The MuleThe Mule Red Chipper Posts: 778 ✭✭✭
    You are getting 4:1 if I am following correctly. Unless your opponent has KK, you have 10 outs to a full house on the river, which is a 22% probability. You can make this call purely on pot odds.

    There is also a good chance you are ahead - your opponent could be raising two pair (76s or 87s for example), a lower set, or even top pair or an overpair that was trying to slow play and is getting a bit worried now the board is getting scarier. Is it more likely your opponent would call an overbet on the pot with a gut shot, or bet one of these hands on a straight board ?

    I think you have a clear call, and maybe even should call a bet on the river depending on the run out, bet size, your opponent's tendencies etc.
  • Steve007Steve007 Red Chipper Posts: 363 ✭✭✭
    Definitely would never fold here. Not trying to be rude and just saying what I think. I think folding is really terrible here.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,583 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2016
    Now we all know the dreaded combination of the mini-raise and the turn check-raise from the unschooled poker player. It means real strength. But you also have to determine what they think is "real strength" because this can play in your favor.

    If your opponent has a straight, then this is a clear call. Since we can remove 2 cards from the deck that don't match the board cards, we are even slightly more likely to make our boat on the river than usual (you remove 2 cards from the deck that are not a K, 8, 7 or 6, which is good for you).

    If we assign a preflop range to villain of 54, 95, and T9, then there's about a 23% chance we make our boat on the river. That's 3.4:1 ! You're getting exactly 4:1 on your call, so this is an obvious call even if your opponent has the nuts and even if you can't win another penny on the river.

    We can debate what other hands he might have including 2 pair or sets, and which set is the more likely set if he has a set. But most of that is going to be in our favor so it's not going to change the answer. (If you add 77/66 to his preflop range and his turn min-raising range, then you have 31%, and if you add KK/77/66 to that range, you have 29.5%).

    Even if we are to believe that villain's preflop range is exactly KK, 54, 95 and T9, and even if we are to believe that KK is still as likely as normal even though he just limped, you're still 21.5% and better than 4:1, again counting 0 implied odds if you hit.
  • KrisKris Red Chipper Posts: 58 ✭✭
    edited August 2016
    This is clearly at least a call, but I'm interested in what you guys think of how we proceed. A call leaves us about $100 behind in a pot that will be $200, and an all-inclusive from V would make the pot $300 OTR. Are there any potential benefits to raising all in on the turn, or is it definitely a call? Supposing we call, do we check and call any and all river cards? What rivers do we consider betting? And are there any rivers we would check/fold?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Kris wrote: »
    This is clearly at least a call, but I'm interested in what you guys think of how we proceed. A call leaves us about $100 behind in a pot that will be $200, and an all-inclusive from V would make the pot $300 OTR. Are there any potential benefits to raising all in on the turn, or is it definitely a call? Supposing we call, do we check and call any and all river cards? What rivers do we consider betting? And are there any rivers we would check/fold?

    Hard to answer this question without knowing anything about the villain. Does villain spaz with bottom 2? Is the villain a huge calling station who fishes gut shots? Is the villain a nit who slow played 66?

    If villain checks the river i am jamming
    If villain jams i need to know a little bit about the villain to determine if i am calling.
    If he bets like $50 i don't see how i can ever fold getting 5 to 1.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭


    Video might help a little. I think split ships 88 on the turn in your hand.
  • golfer0110golfer0110 Red Chipper Posts: 12 ✭✭
    What hand was V holding and what happened on the river?
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,583 ✭✭✭✭✭
    OK so we've established that calling is profitable, folding is relatively unprofitable, and that leaves raising as the potentially optimal play. Nice link from Austin with some interesting explanation by SS. Personally I probably just stick it in on the turn, but that comes down to reads as to what villain would play this strongly. I discount KK, but we've all seen it so of course it's possible. If his range is KK (discounted), 66, 77, 87, 86, 76, T9, 54 and 95 (discounted but possible), then let's roughly say 21 combos we're beating now, say 2 combos of KK we're losing to and realistically can't catch up to, and maybe 36 combos of straights we can still beat on the river. I seriously doubt villain is ever folding 54 here, but then I doubt he's folding anything at all in that range.
  • Shinobi71Shinobi71 Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    OK so we've established that calling is profitable, folding is relatively unprofitable, and that leaves raising as the potentially optimal play. Nice link from Austin with some interesting explanation by SS. Personally I probably just stick it in on the turn, but that comes down to reads as to what villain would play this strongly. I discount KK, but we've all seen it so of course it's possible. If his range is KK (discounted), 66, 77, 87, 86, 76, T9, 54 and 95 (discounted but possible), then let's roughly say 21 combos we're beating now, say 2 combos of KK we're losing to and realistically can't catch up to, and maybe 36 combos of straights we can still beat on the river. I seriously doubt villain is ever folding 54 here, but then I doubt he's folding anything at all in that range.

    Im thinking would he limp with KK?I wouldnt.The 7 on the turn and he check raises did he make a straight?
    With all the possible ranges villain might have you lose to three KK,45,910 I used 31 total. Villain will make the straight 4.14:l, full house 68.5:1. Hero will make the full house 4.10:1.
    With all that info I agree with jeffnc just shove on the turn apply the pressure now make him make that tough call I'm guessing something like 2:1 post odds to call.

  • GarrettGarrett Red Chipper Posts: 54 ✭✭
    I shoved the turn and villain had 9Ts
  • KrisKris Red Chipper Posts: 58 ✭✭
    Garrett wrote: »
    I shoved the turn and villain had 9Ts

    I think this is totally fine, you had good equity against a made straight and there was also a chance you were ahead. Just a cooler, IMO.
  • Shinobi71Shinobi71 Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    You made the right decision mathematically.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,583 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I guess it's not really so clear if shoving is best. It's hard to imagine what can happen on the river to keep the rest of the money from going in, one way or another. The more I think about it, it seems to be kind of a wash on the turn. Maybe I'm wrong.
  • GarrettGarrett Red Chipper Posts: 54 ✭✭
    I actually tanked for a good bit on the turn thinking about whether to call or shove.

    My logic at the time was that my money is going in on the river regardless, so I might as well shove on the off-chance that I can get him to call with some draws that might not call on a blank river...
  • Shinobi71Shinobi71 Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    I guess it's not really so clear if shoving is best. It's hard to imagine what can happen on the river to keep the rest of the money from going in, one way or another. The more I think about it, it seems to be kind of a wash on the turn. Maybe I'm wrong.

    The all the money would have went into pot either the turn to river. If hero called villain would have shoved the river. Overall tough decision to make you have a set against a possible straight or straight draw.

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