Hand #26: JJ on Q6346

OutlierOutlier Red Chipper Posts: 158 ✭✭

$1/2
EP1 limps
MP2 Hero raises to $12 with :Jh :Jd
CO calls
BB calls
EP1 calls

EP1 Open Limping Range: 41%, 498 combos
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BB Calling Range: 15%, 183 combos
0pf95uqqb95y.png

EP1 Limp-Calling Range: 100% of previous range, 498 combos
I went with 100% because EP1 is now closing the action and getting the beloved "pot odds."

Flop ($50) :Qh :6c :3s
BB checks
EP1 checks
Hero bets $30
CO folds
BB calls
EP1 folds

BB Check-Calling Range: 57%, 92 combos
2qt9hn4yvhdj.png

Turn ($110) :Qh :6c :3s :4d
BB and Hero check

BB Turn Checking Range: 91% of previous range, 91 combos
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Top Pair? Checks
Pair+Draw? Checks
Sets? Checks

River ($110) :Qh :6c :3s :4d :6d
BB leads $100
Hero?

Villain River Betting Range: 26.5% of previous range, 27 combos
yyfax67j9k42.png

Top Pair? Maybe AQ for this sizing; would expect smaller sizing for Q-X
A Full House or Better? Bet

What would you do with JJ here? Fold.
Need 32% equity on call, have only 28%. And that 28% includes villain betting JJ and TT, which I find very unlikely but threw in for the sake of argument.

The large bet sizing suggest a polarized range, except that there are very few bluffs with which villain gets to the river due to both player type and the dry flop texture. Thus the polarized range is largely weighted toward monsters.

Comments

  • tfaziotfazio Red Chipper Posts: 819 ✭✭✭
    IMHO I don't agree with BB flatting range here. Also you he dosen't have QQ as it was not included in his pre flop range.
    TT-22,AJo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AJs-A6s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s
    Also he is more likely to check JJ TT than turn it into a bluff
  • BadgerBadger Red Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    I read weak TAG as fairly nitty so I had his flatting range at 18.6% and 226 combos but I can totally see tfazio's range as well (24.9% 330combos). The odds are great and if he hits a hand the EP1 will pay him off.

    On the flop:
    Top Pair and Set I think he check calls trying to keep in terrible EP1
    But I do think he bets 77 to see if its good and "protect" the hand.

    On the turn:
    Top Pair safe to check fairly dry board
    Pair+Draw I would bet to try to get two streets of value if my draw hits and a nice 2 barrel semibluff, he is a weak tag so he probably checks and tries to get there cheaply
    Set I think should and would bet

    On the river:
    I think this hand example is trying to tell me to fold due to the difference in equity (his range has it) and he has a lot of queens and boats in his range. But I really hate folding to one bet after the other player has taken such a passive line and there is only one over with a dry board.
    I just keep getting hung up on the check on the turn, if he had a set shouldn't he have bet it? I think most players would wouldn't they? Then the river is pot sized which is heavier than I would expect a value bet to be.
    Normally I would call here about 50% of the time as a bluff catcher. Is that too high a percentage? Should it be more like 20%?


  • OutlierOutlier Red Chipper Posts: 158 ✭✭
    @tfazio:
    1. BB Flatting Range: I guess it comes down to how you interpret the term "weak TAG." That could mean he tries to play TAG, but he's not great at it and tends toward the more common loose passive. But I think "weak TAG" could also mean too nitty, which is how I would describe my game a few years ago--trying to play TAG, but missing too many spots and just too nitty. This is the basis of my tigter preflop calling range than you. The difference in our preflop flatting range probably comes down to our definition of this term "weak TAG."
    I have not seen your analysis of this hand, but my guess is that our differing start points won't matter that much end, due primarily to the very dry flop. Combine this with the very polarized river action, and I bet we both end up with a very narrow river range for villain.

    3. You're right that I did not include QQ in his preflop range. This was one of those hands in which, as I worked through it, I ended up with hardly anything in villain's range by the river. So I went back and adding hands, throwing in some fraction of QQ, which is why you see it on a later street. If you look closely, there are only 0.75 combos of QQ showing, 1/4 of the three possible.

    3. I also agree that he would more likely check JJ or TT than bet them. I threw them in to lean toward the conservative side. In other words, I initially had so little equity against his range on the river that I began to invent some hands like JJ and TT to see if I could give myself enough equity to call. The point of JJ and TT is to show that even against these additional (unlikely) hands that I tie/beat, I still don't have enough equity to call.
  • OutlierOutlier Red Chipper Posts: 158 ✭✭
    @Badger I think a case can be made for bluff catching the river, but it would come down to the villain. Two big things I inferred from "weak TAG": 1) he doesn't bluff enough. If weak TAGs in your game are throwing in the occasional weird bet on the river (betting maybe because they don't know what else to do) then you can make a case for bluff-catching, as the river action is very polarizing. It's just that flop is so dry, what's he check-calling the flop with (especially with EP1 still to act)?
  • Mike VMike V Red Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
    If he calls JJ and TT, why wouldn't he also call with 99-77? The Q on the board beats all of those pairs and if we aren't holding a Q then all those pairs are probably good.

    Once we check the turn, he is now free to bet any hand in his range, including JJ-77, which give us around 42% equity and a +EV call.
  • OutlierOutlier Red Chipper Posts: 158 ✭✭
    @Mike V ok, let's put 77-JJ in his range. When he bets river, is it for value or as a bluff? Turning 2nd pair into a bluff is not happening at $1-2, so let's say it's for value. What is he hoping to get called by that he beats? Only Ace-highs...so why would he ever bet this large, almost pot? I'll give you that he bets these hands sometimes, but probably a bet of $40-70.
  • Mike VMike V Red Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
    Outlier wrote: »
    @Mike V ok, let's put 77-JJ in his range. When he bets river, is it for value or as a bluff? Turning 2nd pair into a bluff is not happening at $1-2, so let's say it's for value. What is he hoping to get called by that he beats? Only Ace-highs...so why would he ever bet this large, almost pot? I'll give you that he bets these hands sometimes, but probably a bet of $40-70.

    Very good point. I'll have to go back and re-work it.
  • Aka DubsAka Dubs Red Chipper Posts: 33 ✭✭
    I had my ranges a bit tighter than outlier, but got to the same decision on the river. its super polarizing, and I think he checks 77-jj trying to get to showdown and is never bluffing with them. from your ranges(and mine) he has very little that he bluffs with. there are no missed FD's, and and 45 was the only draw on the flop, so he would have to be advanced enough to turn a pair into a bluff. add to that that a weak tag is never leading the turn with QQ only looking to checkraise it 1/2 the time, he has boats and trips plus in his range, its a snap fold.

    there are definitely players I would call this against, just not a weak/nit TAG.

    Is anyone ever betting the turn here? I would 90% I think, and might shover other rivers depending on the comfort level of the weak tag. I would bet any river 8,9,10,J, K, A, 2 I think. If he is weak, he is going to have a hard time calling with Q10, QJ, 1010,99,88. of these, the under pairs fold the turn bet of 65, and if he looks super uncomfortable and calls, I have to bet the river as a merge bluff to get value from his bluff catchers (77-1010) and push him off a weak Q. thoughts?
  • Aka DubsAka Dubs Red Chipper Posts: 33 ✭✭
    edited October 2016
    Badger wrote: »
    I read weak TAG as fairly nitty...I just keep getting hung up on the check on the turn, if he had a set shouldn't he have bet it? I think most players would wouldn't they? Then the river is pot sized which is heavier than I would expect a value bet to be.
    Normally I would call here about 50% of the time as a bluff catcher. Is that too high a percentage? Should it be more like 20%?

    I agree that this player is nitty, and almost never bluffing the river. as a weak/nit/passive, he is looking to check/call each street, very rarely he will be checkraising this turn with QQ, but that is discounted for rarity. you have to look at what he can be bluffing with on rivers, and here there are no busted straight draws, no missed flush draws, nothing with out showdown value that he needs to bluff with. virtually no hands that a weak/nit would have called the flop with need to bluff, so I would never call this river from this type of player.

    bluff catching depends 1 on the villain, and 2 on the board texture, both of these are against you here.

    now switch this to a agro 20 something asian kid that likes to be in pots and is someone that you have seen make moves. he can flat the flop with suited ak,aj, a10, less with j10s, 78s cards that are looking for good turns to continue on, and check to you, take the free river, and bluff with all of these when he misses. he also might have a random 6 that he called the flop with, but his range is much much wider and this is where you should be looking at bluff catching.
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,310 ✭✭✭✭
    I came to the same conclusion as most of you guys---folding seems correct on the river. Of course, this is very dependent on your interpretation of this player's type. Unfortunately, we don't know much about this player. However, I don't think he's making it to this river with many weak hands. I think his call on the flop should carry some strength since EP1 likes to go to showdown a lot. Add that to the fact that he also has my bad ass in position, he's going to need something decent to continue.

    I found it strange that the initial poster excluded 54s from the BB's check call range. I wouldn't think this player would check fold or check raise that hand--it's the best draw available on this board.

    Anyway, I think the BB arrives to the river with mostly QX, trip sixes, and maybe the 75 straight. Of course, he's going to have the 33 boat and quads from time to time.

    The only thing I can't think of--does this player have any bluffs in his range at the river? I can't think of any hands that a weak TAG would turn into a bluff in this spot--especially since a weak TAG, in my mind, would tend to not bluff enough.

    So, I think I fold here, and can sleep just fine.
  • NuttedNutterNuttedNutter Red Chipper Posts: 44
    HAND #26

    EP1 NEVER FOLDS OPEN LIMP RANGE: 99-22,ATo-A2o,KJo-K2o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T7o,98o-97o,87o-86o,76o,A9s-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s,65s,54s

    %FORM: 45.7%
    COMBOS: 560

    CO Boring Tag more likely to call or 3bet w/..

    TT? Call. Reason is because it appears to me that his name "boring" implies he's sort of just waiting around for hands. There's nothing mentioned of him 3betting a ton and there's 3 other players behind. EP1 Never Folds should be concerning to him since if he were to 3bet w/ intentions of isolating it would seem a bit better to do from the BTN and EP1 in a later position. If he were described as a "solid" tag I suppose I'd be more inclined to think he's more capable of 3betting this spot.

    AQ? Call. Again similar reasoning, doesn't strike as a player that's likely to put much pressure on anyone.

    AXs? Call. Same as above.

    CO BORING TAG PF CALL RANGE: JJ-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s,76s

    %FORM: 20.3%
    COMBOS: 249

    Would BB Weak Tag call w/..

    Suited Gappers? Yes I'd say up to 3 gappers since it says "weak" tag. I assume he might be a bit reluctant to play 4 gappers. This combined w/ BB special factor, being priced in and expecting EP1 Never Folds to be in he's likely playing a wide range, but as the name implies "weak" probably on the conservative side of the spectrum so I'd say up to 3 gappers.

    Axs? Yes. All.

    Unsuited Connectors? Yes but not all. I'd say from 76o+

    BB WEAK TAG PF CALL RANGE: JJ-22,AKo-A8o,KQo-K8o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o,87o,76o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-74s,65s-63s,54s-53s,43s

    %FORM: 38.8%
    COMBOS: 475

    Would EP1 just limp/call w/..

    Strong PP's? Yes. 22-99

    Strong Broadway Hands? Yes from JT+

    Weak Hands? Yes. Hands like Ax, Kx, suited connectors, some gappers.

    EP1 NEVER FOLDS LIMP CALL RANGE: 99-22,ATo-A2o,KJo-K2o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T7o,98o-97o,87o-86o,76o,A9s-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s,65s,54s

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 100%
    COMBOS: 560

    :Qh :6c :3s

    What does BB do w/..

    TP? Bets. Even though it says "weak" to mean passivity I still think knowing that EP1 will call w/ worse than a Q I think he would just bet here. If he were a "strong" or "solid" tag I'd be more inclined to think he's capable of check raising a hand like AQ here while allowing me (the PFR) to bet maybe a worse Q, JJ, TT, etc. being that EP1 Never Folds will likely continue w/ weak Q's, 99-77, a 3, 55, 44, 22. So I don't think BB has a Q here.

    Sets? Check Raises. I think a weak tag in the BB knows enough about the spot that he views it as a higher EV situation to allow me (the PFR) to bet what I would w/ 3 others in the hand w/ an extremely sticky station in EP1. He probably knows that I wouldn't just cbet as a bluff here w/ AK, AJ or something. I think he knows that I'd bet w/ here for value w/ pairs looking to get EP1 hu mainly. Since he likely knows that I'm probably not just gonna fold the flop and at least call once w/ a hand like AQ, KK+, JJ, maybe TT.

    77? C-c's maybe even folds. Since he's gonna be on the tight passive side of the spectrum I think he'd be more reluctant to call, but he may call once and give up on turn to a bet when an overcard or something falls.

    BB WEAK TAG FLOP CALL RANGE: JJ-77,54s
    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 6.79%

    COMBOS: 29

    T: :4D:

    Does BB check or lead w/..

    TP? Checks if he decided to C-C flop. I don't think he would have a hand like AQ. With the flop dynamic he likely would've C-Red that hand he could've even 3bet it pf, but no 3bets. If he just called w/ AQ on flop then I think he would likely bet it here, so it's more likely that if he even has any strong Q's like KQ at best he probably would bet it. Maybe w/ hands like QJ-Q8 he'd be afraid he could be beat to AQ or KK+ himself and would elect to check his entire TP ranged capped at KQ.

    Pair+draw? Checks. He's not the type to play weak pair plus draws aggressively.

    Sets? Would bet. But I don't think BB has three of a kind 4's since I didn't think it would've called flop and 3's and 6's would've either lead or C-Red flop.

    BB WEAK TAG CHECK TURN RANGE: JJ-77,54s

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 100%
    COMBOS: 28

    R: :6D:

    BB leads for $100 on river does he have...

    TP? No. It doesn't make much sense to have any TP's by the river since hypothetically I think he would've at least sometimes 3bet pf w/ AQs. Any strong Q would've likely bet the flop with 3 others in the hand, especially being that EP1 would've called w/ a wide enough range of hands. No raise on flop so I don't think he has AQ and by turn if he decided to just C-C flop w/ hands like KQ-QT then I'd think that on the turn he would have lead.

    Full house or better? No. Same deal I think w/ all those people in the hand he would've bet or C-Red flop with a set of 6's, 3's. I didn't think he'd call a flop bet w/ 44, and if he did he would've bet for value with a turned set of 4's, so I don't think he has 4's full and it doesn't make much logical sense for him to have quad 6's either since again would've bet or C-Red flop w/ set of 6's.

    The only thing that makes sense to me now is a missed draw. 54s that called as OESD on flop, checked turn, missed on river, got frustrated since there's no other way to win the hand and since turn went ch/ch he might think that I don't have a Q as I'd have probably bet it on turn. Nevertheless, that seems to make sense to me, that this bet is often a bluff.

    BB WEAK TAG RIVER BET RANGE: JJ-77,54s

    %OF PREVIOUS RANGE: 100%
    COMBOS: 28

    What would you do with JJ here? Call. I need 47.6% equity. So I need to be correct in calling almost half the time here. I have 98.2% equity and my hand serves as a bluff catcher here and since I think that's what he's likely doing w/ a missed draw I'm getting a good price to find out. If he played a Q passively for 2 streets and then just went for big value on river and I'm beat, then I'm beat, however it doesn't make much sense that he'd play a Q like he did given the dynamic on previous streets.



























  • AcesaladAcesalad Red Chipper Posts: 240 ✭✭
    Start with EP1. What kind of range do you think he open-limps from UTG? Consider if he would open-raise hands like TT+ and AK, or if his open-limp is more indicative of non-monster starting hands.
    I think he limps very wide but not with AA, KK or AK. Terrible players are not positionally aware and wouldn't pass up raising those hands.
    %-Form 47.8% #Combos 634
    Villain's Range:
    QQ-22,AQo-A2o,KQo-K7o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o-97o,87o,76o,65o,54o,AQs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q4s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s
    9zquh2hc84oa.png

    EP1 limps, you raise to $12, and the CO calls.
    When building the CO’s calling range consider if they are more likely to call or 3bet with hands like:
    TT? Call
    Ace Queen? 3Bet
    AXs? Call, Except AQs+
    %-Form 25.9% #Combos 334
    Villain's Range:
    JJ-22,AJo-A9o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AJs-A2s,KQs-K8s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s
    20uvtyoxo0wy.png

    BUT folds, SB folds, and the BB calls.
    Try to get inside the BB’s head when building their range. If they expect that EP1 will call as well, would they call with:
    Suited Gappers? Yes
    AXs? Yes
    Unsuited Connectors? Yes
    %-Form 38.6% #Combos 512
    Villain's Range:
    JJ-22,AQo-A9o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o-T8o,98o-97o,87o-86o,76o-75o,65o,54o,AQs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s
    pqvhy2ustmct.png

    You raise a limper to $12 and the CO and BB call
    Consider which hands EP1 would limp/re-raise with. Would they just limp/call with:
    Strong Pocket Pairs? Yes
    Strong Broadway Hands? Yes
    Weak Hands? Yes
    % of Previous Range 100.0% #Combos 634
    Villain's Range:
    QQ-22,AQo-A2o,KQo-K7o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o-97o,87o,76o,65o,54o,AQs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q4s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s
    wnwn8gdcpl0b.png
    There are 4 players to a $50 flop
    Flop:
    :QH: :6C: :3S:
    Given the flop texture and the fact EP1 is behind them, what do you think the BB does with:
    Top Pair? Check-Call
    Sets? Check-Call
    77? Folds
    % of Previous Range 24.0% #Combos112
    Villain's Range:
    JJ-66,33,AQo,KQo,QJo-Q9o,54o,AQs,KQs,QJs-Q9s,54s
    l0r2u1y8q5pf.png

    Turn:
    :4D:
    Once EP1 folds on the flop and you are heads up on the turn, do you think BB checks or leads with:
    Top Pair? Leads
    Pair + Draw? Leads
    Sets? Checks
    % of Previous Range 16.7% #Combos 18
    Villain's Range:
    66,33,54o,54s
    fo73rbrspfco.png

    River:
    :6D:

    Keeping in mind that the BB did not lead on the flop or turn AND the bet size on the river, do you think the BB has:
    Top Pair? No
    Full House or Better? Yes
    % of Previous Range 25.0% #Combos 4
    Villain's Range:
    66,33
    nw4eafyxbc6t.png

    What do you do with JJ here? Fold
  • Tim STim S Red Chipper Posts: 3 ✭✭
    I'll start with what my read of "Weak" TAG is, since this seems to be one of the biggest assumptions here: he can't really deviate from ABC strategy, knows his hand chart and pot odds, but isn't going to do anything crazy, floats and bluffs are rare unless on tilt. From that...

    EP1:
    99-22,AJo-A2o,KQo-K8o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T7o,98o-96o,87o-85o,76o-74o,65o-63o,54o-53o,43o-42o,32o,AJs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q4s,JTs-J5s,T9s-T6s,98s-95s,87s-85s,76s-74s,65s-63s,54s-52s,43s-42s,32s
    60%, 730 combos

    When building the CO’s calling range consider if they are more likely to call or 3bet with hands like:
    TT: Call
    AQ: Call
    AXs: Call if boring

    JJ-22,AQo-AJo,KQo,AQs-A2s,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s
    13%; 157 combos

    Try to get inside the BB’s head when building their range. If they expect that EP1 will call as well, would they call with:
    Key is they’re getting ~ 4:1 on a call assuming UTG calls
    Suited Gappers: Call
    AXs: Call
    Unsuited Connectors: depends on what weak means, but some of them, yes

    JJ-22,AJo,KQo-KJo,QJo,AJs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,[50]JTo,T9o,98o,87o,76o,65o[/50]
    18%; 220 combos

    Consider which hands EP1 would limp/re-raise with. Would they just limp/call with:

    Strong pocket pairs: QQ+ re-raise, which more conclusively removes them from range
    Strong BW: AK, AQ either open raise or re-raise, so also more conclusively removed from range
    Weak hands: Wouldn’t know to re-raise as a bluff. Basically his range hasn’t changed

    FLOP:
    Given the flop texture and the fact EP1 is behind them, what do you think the BB does with:
    Top pair: bets, expecting a call from EP1
    Sets: definitely bets or check raises
    77: could check/call

    JJ-77,KQo,QJo,76o,65o,A6s,KQs,QJs-QTs,86s,76s,65s-64s,54s
    32%; 63 combos

    Once EP1 folds on the flop and you are heads up on the turn, do you think BB checks or leads with:
    Top pair: Check, because I don't have him getting here with AQ
    Pair + draw: Check
    Sets: Leads, if he ever gets here with any

    JJ-77,KQo,QJo,76o,65o,A6s,KQs,QJs-QTs,86s,76s,65s,54s
    97%; 60 combos

    Keeping in mind that the BB did not lead on the flop or turn AND the bet size on the river, do you think the BB has:
    Top Pair: Could, but think he’s trip 6’s+
    Full House or better: would bet here, but I see him betting any boat earlier as a set

    KQo,QJo,76o,65o,A6s,KQs,QJs-QTs,76s,65s
    54%; 33 combos

    I don't even really want to give him top pair, mostly see him doing this with trips+ or maybe KQ. For this hand specifically it doesn't as much matter, as both beat us. Even if we give him all 24 combos of pocket pairs we beat, he still has 33 combos of Top Pair+.

    What would I do?
    Fold
  • Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
    Hand 26
    Preflop: I would have to put Never Folds in EP1 on a wide range. His stack size after two hours is healthy enough to have opened UTG with a bet if he had had pocket premiums. So I cap his range at 31% (376 combos) TT-22,ATo-A7o,KJo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,76o,65o,ATs-A2s,KJs-K8s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-74s,65s-63s,54s-53s,43s. Open limp is indicative of non-monster hands. I raise to $12.

    Boring Tag in the CO calls and he has the second biggest stack. This is also indicative of non-monster hands. I put a boring Tag on a tighter range, calling with TT, AQ, and Ax, 20% (248 combos) TT-88,AQo-A9o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,AQs-A8s,KJs-K8s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s.

    BB calls, getting 3 to 1 pot odds. BB expects EP1 to call, and never raise. I assign a capped wide range of some suited gappers, some Ax and some unsuited connectors 21% (261 combos) JJ-66,AQo-A9o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,AQs-A8s,KJs-K8s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s.

    EP1 calls with no strong pairs, no strong broadways and plenty of weak hands. I kept him on my original range estimation.

    Flop :Qh :6c :3s
    BB does not have QQ, I took them out of his range Preflop. He would have checked a set of 6s, and checked sevens. I took him off JJ too and the range is 24% of previous (57 combos) 66,AQo,KQo,QJo-Q9o,AQs,QJs-Q8s.

    Turn :4d
    EP1 folds I check and BB checks back, the 4d helped neither of us, obviously and I think I have the winning hand at this point. BB is on a crazy draw or he has a Qx or 66 or maybe I should have left JJ in his range and this is a chopped pot. He remains on the same range and combo numbers as previous. I think he would have bet top pair after I showed weakness with a check, and he would not have bet a lesser pair with a draw and he might have bet his set of 6s for value but didn’t. I starting to feel confident about my JJ and realizing that I have been coming to this conclusion with a lot of the hands in the workbook. I am I doing this right?

    River :6d
    There goes my confidence when BB bets $100, nearly pot size and is this now quad 6s or a pair of queens? Either way, I’m beat or getting bluffed. I rule out quads and a full house just because, so I am down to my JJ vs possible QQ. Flopzilla is giving me 0% chance of winning. Would a weak Tag bet the river with a bluff? Yeah. I am getting 2 to 1 pot odds but I old anyway. Equilab gives me nadda chance for winning. I fold, although this contradicts some of my earlier assupmtions.

  • bogata XLbogata XL Red Chipper Posts: 29 ✭✭
    BB overcall range PRF
    I think QQ+, AK he will raise and AQ 50% of the times

    22-JJ
    A2s-AJs
    AQ filter 50%
    AJ
    KTs+
    97s+
    87s+
    87o+

    189 combo's 15,4%

    FLOP
    I think BB will x/raise his sets, so I exclude them out of his range.
    Lower pocketpairs he will fold.

    BB Flop call range
    TP = 23 combo's
    PP 77 - JJ = 25 combo's
    MP A6s = 3 combo's

    51 combo's 27,4% of his prf-range

    TURN
    44 is not in his range, so no sets.
    57 for the straight is not in his range

    BB Turn check range
    TP = 23 combo's
    PP 77-JJ = 25 combos
    MP A6s = 3combo's

    51 combo's 100% of his floprange

    RIVER
    He has 2 combo's A6s that make trips.
    He has 23 combo's TP.
    In total 25 combo's that beat us.

    25 combo's pocketpairs below TP 77- JJ we beat or split.

    Would he bet almost potsize with trips?
    Possible
    Would he bet almost potsize with TP?
    Possible
    Would he bet potsize with PP below TP?
    I don't think so. Normally when turn goes check check they can lead out with a pocketpair, but they bet 50%potsize.

    When I put a filter 50% on the pocketpairs below TP, flopzilla gives me 33% equity.
    The price is also about 33%.
    But without further reads I think the best thing to do here is FOLD.
    Without crazy bluffs probably we are beat.
  • Shawn JShawn J Red Chipper Posts: 55 ✭✭
    $1/$2. EP1 sat down two hours ago and has proven himself to be a terrible player. He simply hates folding and goes to showdown very often.

    Preflop: 9 handed, EP1 NEVER FOLDS open limps, folds to Hero MP2 w/ JJ, we bet $12, CO BORING TAG calls, BB WEAK TAG calls, EP1 calls. Pot $50

    EP1 NEVER FOLDS limp call Range
    eyiiy1ivhsn7.png

    BB WEAK TAG Calling Range
    ocz9humwoo4v.png

    FLOP: Pot $50
    z9m1bv3mv4xx.png

    2 checks, we bet $30, the CO folds, the BB calls, and EP1 folds

    I assume BB would lead out with all top pair, to get value from weaker Q's, under pairs, and draws from EP1. He'd check/call all two pair, sets because it's a dry board with no flushdraws or scary straight draws, try to induce a bet. he may also call with under pairs thinking we have under pairs or missed AK, Axs.

    TURN: Pot $110
    qm1nd6o6aks8.png

    We both check. BB Range is 100% of previous. Still may have strong hands that were hoping for us to continue betting. No possible Flush draws available and unlikely we could have a straight draw in our range. He checks to induce.

    RIVER: Pot $110
    BB Bets out $100. I strongly assume he has us beat here 100% of the time with either trips, straight, or full house. I don't think he has enough BALLS or sophisticated as a player since he's WEAK TAG to lead out for big with a Under Pair or missed draw. I would think He'd prefer to take an under pair to showdown. If he does bet those hands, we're roughly 54% equity or more. Yes, it's a call, since we're getting 2.1:1 or 32% equity, but again, I don't think he's brave enough to bluff it, even though we shown extreme weakness and given up on the turn and river. My intuition says fold, if I know he's capable of bluffing missed draws or over valuing under pairs, it's a call all day.

    ALL VALUE RIVER RANGE
    l31mi5gkw57c.png

    ONLY BETTING BIG WITH UNDER PAIRS AND VALUE HANDS RANGE
    4ubwt39xwudb.png

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