Hand #26: JJ on Q6346
MP2 Hero raises to $12 with :Jh :Jd
EP1 Open Limping Range: 41%, 498 combos
BB Calling Range: 15%, 183 combos
EP1 Limp-Calling Range: 100% of previous range, 498 combos
I went with 100% because EP1 is now closing the action and getting the beloved "pot odds."
Flop ($50) :Qh :6c :3s
Hero bets $30
BB Check-Calling Range: 57%, 92 combos
Turn ($110) :Qh :6c :3s :4d
BB and Hero check
BB Turn Checking Range: 91% of previous range, 91 combos
Top Pair? Checks
River ($110) :Qh :6c :3s :4d :6d
BB leads $100
Villain River Betting Range: 26.5% of previous range, 27 combos
Top Pair? Maybe AQ for this sizing; would expect smaller sizing for Q-X
A Full House or Better? Bet
What would you do with JJ here? Fold.
Need 32% equity on call, have only 28%. And that 28% includes villain betting JJ and TT, which I find very unlikely but threw in for the sake of argument.
The large bet sizing suggest a polarized range, except that there are very few bluffs with which villain gets to the river due to both player type and the dry flop texture. Thus the polarized range is largely weighted toward monsters.