75s Semi-Bluff 866 Board

MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,004 ✭✭✭✭
edited August 2016 in Live Poker Hands
Game 1/2/4. 8-handed. Play has been loose pre flop but pretty ABC post flop so far. Villain has been at table for a couple orbits (he seems reggish/familiar with other players). Maybe limped in a handful of times but nothing notable from him yet, so I figure him as being on the weak-loose spectrum & a decent target to float. BTN limping is not my usual play, and I would've rather isolated the weak-loose limper, but the second limper (no reads) was sitting on only like 12-13BB and I didn't want to get myself in some sort of raise/face short stack shove/be forced into awkward spot if players behind flat as well. Maybe that just means I should fold preflop, but I hate folding my BTN if not forced to w/ a playable hand. Thoughts on post-flop line generally? Any thoughts on overbetting river? Effective stacks 100BB.

Hero (BTN): :7h:5h

Villain (UTG) calls 1BB, fold x 2, HJ calls, fold, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls

Flop (5BB): :8c:6d:6s

Villain bets 5BB, fold, Hero calls, fold x 2

Turn (15BB): :2c

Villain checks, Hero bets 13BB, Villain calls

River (41BB): :5c

Villain checks, Hero bets 37.5BB

When villain pots flop he could have 6x (obviously), 8x that's trying to shut out overcards or "protect" against draws. I figure his actions on turn will clarify his range a bit. The check weights his range toward 8x in my mind, and while I know a single barrel will not suffice (especially on a harmless 2), I figure a 2nd barrel OTR will be very tough to call for 8x if I'm not completely off-base about my player profile. I don't think my rivered pair has any showdown value whatsoever.

Thanks.

Comments

  • ChibberChibber Red Chipper Posts: 378 ✭✭✭
    The villain is almost always betting 6x on the turn when a flush card shows up. The 5c should be good card for you as it not only completes the BD flush, but also brings in straights and 65 for a FH. However, you're repping a pretty narrow range on the river. Most players with 6x are checking back the river, because they can't have a flush. The only real flush you should have is 79cc.

    If you think the villain has a fold button your river bet should be enough to fold an 8, but if he is sticky and can read hands you'd have to over bet.
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,004 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2016
    Chibber wrote: »
    The villain is almost always betting 6x on the turn when a flush card shows up. The 5c should be good card for you as it not only completes the BD flush, but also brings in straights and 65 for a FH. However, you're repping a pretty narrow range on the river. Most players with 6x are checking back the river, because they can't have a flush. The only real flush you should have is 79cc.

    If you think the villain has a fold button your river bet should be enough to fold an 8, but if he is sticky and can read hands you'd have to over bet.

    I think I'm repping good 6x's OTR as well w/ the bet, because really why should a backdoor club draw slow me down at all? At best villain has 1-2 combinations of those (as do I in theory, as you've pointed out). Maybe I bet a little less against someone I know is competent to sell 6x a bit more. But I think a player who is weak (and probably not a great hand reader, but prone to seeing monsters under the bed) with 8x will worry about 6x alot. I could be wrong.

    Good analysis though, thanks for input.
  • dirty moosedirty moose Red Chipper Posts: 482 ✭✭✭
    I think you answered your own question here. 57s isn't a hand you want to play against short stacks. This is a hand you want to play as deep as possible.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 777 ✭✭✭
    "This is a hand you want to play as deep as possible. "

    And with initiative. I will raise preflop anyways . If I get shoved on here, I will call, probably lose, not show my hand and move on. If I think it will happen with a 30-50 BB I will fold preflop
  • BotswanaNickBotswanaNick Red Chipper Posts: 696 ✭✭✭
    edited August 2016
    Monad wrote: »
    But I think a player who is weak (and probably not a great hand reader, but prone to seeing monsters under the bed) with 8x will worry about 6x alot.

    I feel like a bit of a broken record from some other posts, but I would just say I want to feel pretty good about my read before pulling the trigger. There is a subset of weak players who are weak tight and can fold, there is also a subset who are weak-loose and tend to station any reasonable bet with their "top two". I like that you take the reads you have and try to use them, I just tend to be more conservative and wait for more info before I take what I see as a somewhat exploitative line. Either way though this is a very reasonable bluff.
  • RoyRoy Red Chipper Posts: 48 ✭✭
    57s isn't a hand you want to play against short stacks. This is a hand you want to play as deep as possible.

    I agree with the above comment. These are the type of hands that I am finding myself eliminating from my calling limp/calling range in short stacked 1/2 games. Much prefer to focus on Broadways for Value and Pocket Pairs/Some suited Ax for implied odds.

    Unless 100BB+ deep they seem only get me in trouble as I'll find myself in similar situations and semi bluffing with absolutely no fold equity due to player types and stack sizes. Had a very similar hand last week where I had the exact same hole cards ( :5h:7h ) and the flop came out :6h:8h:Js . Won't get into the specifics but I ended up 4 betting Out Of Position and getting shoved on by Villain with a set of sixes on the Flop. He had 3bet min-raised and I could have easily just called getting great odds instead of 4betting when he never folds here.

    Miller and Hull just did a good podcast on this very subject.
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,004 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2016
    For the people folding pre
    Monad wrote: »
    But I think a player who is weak (and probably not a great hand reader, but prone to seeing monsters under the bed) with 8x will worry about 6x alot.

    I feel like a bit of a broken record from some other posts, but I would just say I want to feel pretty good about my read before pulling the trigger. There is a subset of weak players who are weak tight and can fold, there is also a subset who are weak-loose and tend to station any reasonable bet with their "top two". I like that you take the reads you have and try to use them, I just tend to be more conservative and wait for more info before I take what I see as a somewhat exploitative line. Either way though this is a very reasonable bluff.

    Yes, a fair point as usual.

    I actually like @sullyooo suggestion to fuck-it-raise-pre-anyway, but I probably rather have something like Ax, K9, etc. (plus gives me more of a re-jam isolate option)

    For fold preflop folks arguing that we "aren't deep enough", by limping pre I'm keeping the SPR super small vs. the other players, and the effective stacks are therefore pretty deep, while avoiding a weird all-in confrontation pre w/ the short stack. We're folding because 1/4 villains is short? I also have the best position (and therefore information) at the table. We don't have initiative which sucks, obviously, but not all scenarios can be built around having initiative (as hard as I try). But again, your point is well taken and I do not fully disagree, just defending my thinking process a bit.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I am surprised to see so many weak tight comments about this hand. I am on the other side of the fence than most here.

    Just one question. When you list the blinds at 1\2\4 and say 100bb you are talking about 400 effective stacks or straddle of 4 and 200 effective stacks. I am assuming its $400.

    My preflop range here for completing the blind on the button is very wide here because of either weak players or loose players. It sounds like this game plays very similar to mine and if that's the case the players are super easy to read. I would even complete some Kxs and 32s here. I am not playing to make hands. I am playing to bluff some flops with position. For example 57s on K63 with one of the same suit. If players check to me here on the btn this is a rather easy spot to take a stab with gutter and bdfd. Everyone on here seems to have watched the course right? What's Miller's btn range? 75s should be playable hand on the btn for 100bb+. With that said I am not calling a raise with 75s, but im either limping behind or isolating large like $32 (8x) after three limpers.

    Post flop.
    Flop I like the flat call on the flop with the blinds still to act behind you.

    Turn
    With the villain being utg he has a lot of small pocket pairs as well as some monsters that he might of tried to get fancy with like AA. There are many 6x in his range utg while your range should be uncapped. Very solid turn bet imo.

    River
    This is where it becomes villain dependent. If i feel he is on 8x i am firing large. If i feel he has a slow played AA i might give up because people are stubborn. I do like the fact of an overbet here. Some times you run into 97 but even a weak 76s is going to struggle to call you here. I think you can fold out some 6x and some over pairs and all 8x hands. River is ($164) with about $320 behind. Its a little awkward for an overbet unless it's a jam if my math is correct. I was thinking like $240 but leaving yourself with $80 i am not sure how that looks.
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,004 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2016
    Austin wrote: »
    I am surprised to see so many weak tight comments about this hand. I am on the other side of the fence than most here.

    Just one question. When you list the blinds at 1\2\4 and say 100bb you are talking about 400 effective stacks or straddle of 4 and 200 effective stacks. I am assuming its $400.

    My preflop range here for completing the blind on the button is very wide here because of either weak players or loose players. It sounds like this game plays very similar to mine and if that's the case the players are super easy to read. I would even complete some Kxs and 32s here. I am not playing to make hands. I am playing to bluff some flops with position. For example 57s on K63 with one of the same suit. If players check to me here on the btn this is a rather easy spot to take a stab with gutter and bdfd. Everyone on here seems to have watched the course right? What's Miller's btn range? 75s should be playable hand on the btn for 100bb+. With that said I am not calling a raise with 75s, but im either limping behind or isolating large like $32 (8x) after three limpers.

    Post flop.
    Flop I like the flat call on the flop with the blinds still to act behind you.

    Turn
    With the villain being utg he has a lot of small pocket pairs as well as some monsters that he might of tried to get fancy with like AA. There are many 6x in his range utg while your range should be uncapped. Very solid turn bet imo.

    River
    This is where it becomes villain dependent. If i feel he is on 8x i am firing large. If i feel he has a slow played AA i might give up because people are stubborn. I do like the fact of an overbet here. Some times you run into 97 but even a weak 76s is going to struggle to call you here. I think you can fold out some 6x and some over pairs and all 8x hands. River is ($164) with about $320 behind. Its a little awkward for an overbet unless it's a jam if my math is correct. I was thinking like $240 but leaving yourself with $80 i am not sure how that looks.

    It's a 1/2 game w/ a 4 straddle. I'm at about 120BB, villain is at 100BB, short-stack guy was like 12-13BB, which initiated the limp. No straddle this hand.

    Any overbet on the river is basically a shove I think because my final bet already represents over 50% of 100BB effective.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Some people count the straddle as effective blind. I am just a little confused as which way you are counting the pot. $4 = 1 bb or 2bb?

    I think shove is fine on this river and agree that your 5 doesn't have show down value unless villain has T9.

    Low stake game I would have trouble calling with anything here but a full house vs a 2x pot over bet.
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,004 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2016
    Austin wrote: »
    Some people count the straddle as effective blind. I am just a little confused as which way you are counting the pot. $4 = 1 bb or 2bb?

    I think shove is fine on this river and agree that your 5 doesn't have show down value unless villain has T9.

    Low stake game I would have trouble calling with anything here but a full house vs a 2x pot over bet.

    2 = BB. So $200 effective.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Hero (BTN): :7h:5h

    Villain (UTG) calls 1BB, fold x 2, HJ calls, fold, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls

    Flop (5BB): :8c:6d:6s

    Villain (99bb) bets 5BB, fold, Hero (covers) calls, fold x 2

    Turn (15BB): :2c

    Villain (94bb) checks,
    Hero bets 13BB,
    Villain calls

    River (41BB): :5c

    Villain (81bb) checks,
    Hero bets 37.5BB

    I think I like an over-bet way more than a regular bet on this river.... I am trying to imagine if 8x is folding here given the run out. Would have to be a nit like me. Has to call $75 to win $157. Where as calling $162 to win $244 he should likely fold. Or in some low stake players mind they are thinking $162 to win $82? Why so much? Even if they think they are good still end up folding because they dont have nuts or close to it. A lot of players don't factor in your bet as money they win. Just whats in the pot vs your bet.

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