Preflop spot

cfasteddiewcfasteddiew Red Chipper Posts: 3
Hello, first post.

This is from a live tournament $400 entry with a big guarantee, I'm in hijack and have 23 bb, to my left are 3 accomplished professional tournament players, and a regular 2/5 and 5/10 player from the host casino. I have AdQd. I have raised to 2.5 bb 4 out of last 6 hands and picked up pots uncontested.

Blinds 75/300/600
folds to me in HJ, I open to 2.5bb (AdQD)
cutoff folds, button calls (professional player with over 200k in live cashes this year)
sb (20bb) calls (very well known tv player, has been frustrated with my recent raises)
bb (43bb) 3 bets to 7.5 bb (well known online and live tournament player has only played 6-7 hands in 3.5 hours of play and has showed down AK, QQ, KK, made a fold to me earlier but was not happy about it and seemed ready to play a hand against me)

ME: ?

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,669 -
    This is a fascinating spot given the apparent competence of the players and the fact you have a pretty wild image. The button flat is so weird I would level myself into thinking he is trying to induce a squeeze with a monster and fold.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • eevee23eevee23 Red Chipper Posts: 42 ✭✭
    Easy fold unless you want to YOLO jam
  • akashraakashra Red Chipper Posts: 12 ✭✭
    Interesting hand. Lol, I don't think it's an "Easy Fold" given his image, the action, and although the given player has been playing tight and suddenly raises... This player is: "well known online and live tournament player" --

    Given that label and the current situation Loose open, cal, call -- doesn't it look like a great time to exploit his image with a slightly looser range?

    Although GameKat makes a great point. Curious the limp behind there is peculiar... Guessing hero shoved?
  • BotswanaNickBotswanaNick Red Chipper Posts: 696 ✭✭✭
    At first glance I was thinking this was an auto-shove spot. However, I think its a good point that both button flat and small squeeze seem designed to induce. Do we know if this would be the 'standard' squeeze size from bb in this situation? What is button's stack size? If its down in the 20ish range like you and sb, then BB is committing his stack with this 3bet. But if BU has him covered, he might be giving himself room to fold to a shove there. I'm still hard-pressed to fold a hand this strong with our current image. I'm probably shoving and complaining about how bad I play after getting snapped off.
  • LukaLuka Red Chipper Posts: 216 ✭✭✭
    eevee23 wrote: »
    Easy fold unless you want to YOLO jam

    That's awesome, I've never heard YOLO jam, I like it!
  • cfasteddiewcfasteddiew Red Chipper Posts: 3
    At first glance I was thinking this was an auto-shove spot. However, I think its a good point that both button flat and small squeeze seem designed to induce. Do we know if this would be the 'standard' squeeze size from bb in this situation? What is button's stack size? If its down in the 20ish range like you and sb, then BB is committing his stack with this 3bet. But if BU has him covered, he might be giving himself room to fold to a shove there. I'm still hard-pressed to fold a hand this strong with our current image. I'm probably shoving and complaining about how bad I play after getting snapped off.

    BU had about the same if I remember the bb had by about 2-3k in chips, I tanked for longer than I ever really do and had a tough time thinking this was anything other than a squeeze. This appeared to be standard 3bet, even though I only had a few examples to go off of. Another detail was that he had just wrapped up a 1 hour massage and looking back this could have been time for him to open up a bit, I really failed to add that into the equation and think that might have the reason he played so tight early.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2016
    Wow, what a spot. I don't think you could really be faulted for either folding or shoving. One problem with folding is "OK, you guys finally caught me" and they think you're just raising light all the time, which makes future steals harder to get away with. Another argument in favor of raising is that 3 players who are better than you (presumably) have position on you so this is a good time to take a slightly -EV gamble. In effort to knock one or both of them out of the tournament. Calling doesn't really sound terrible either to either try to hit the flop or else do a stop-n-go and hope he has something he'll fold.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm still hard-pressed to fold a hand this strong with our current image

    Yeah, the odd thing is the small size of the 3-bet. Is that based on our image (weak), or based on the strength of his hand (strong)?

  • BotswanaNickBotswanaNick Red Chipper Posts: 696 ✭✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    Yeah, the odd thing is the small size of the 3-bet. Is that based on our image (weak), or based on the strength of his hand (strong)?

    If he is a as strong a player as OP gave him credit for, its based on neither. He's chosen that sizing as the smallest size that can leverage everyone's entire stacks. No one can just flat the 3bet other than maybe button, they will be forced to shove. This is most likely his standard sizing for this situation.

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    Yeah, the odd thing is the small size of the 3-bet. Is that based on our image (weak), or based on the strength of his hand (strong)?

    Or the stack sizes involved? lol

  • JulesJules Red Chipper Posts: 441 ✭✭✭
    I have raised to 2.5 bb 4 out of last 6 hands and picked up pots uncontested.

    I want to play where you are playing because I never get uncontested pots for 2.5 blinds at 300/600 and especially not 4 out of 6 hands.

    I wouldn't flat here. You would have to call 3k more out of your 13,800 stack. I would "YOLO jam" or fold. But as @jeffnc points out if you fold it may look like you got your hand caught in the cookie jar. When facing a squeeze out of the blinds you would think it signifies strength, but playing guys at that level...they are capable of squeezing lite. Tough spot.

    Because of where the 3 bet is coming from I understand considering a fold. But I feel like it so tough to fold a hand like AQs with 23 bb so early in an event. Is this a re-buy tourney? If so re buys should still be available since you are probably in level 7 or 8 or you could re-buy next flight ? If that were the case I would ship it! Come to think of it I was in a similar situation a year ago and the girl had KK against my AQs.

    YOLO Re-buy! :)
  • halfday1halfday1 Red Chipper Posts: 4 ✭✭
    Ok I take a stab at this assume it is a 9 handed table have not read any other responses

    Blinds 600/300…75

    Action:

    Folds to Hero in the HJ with AdQd has 23BB Commitment = 6.9BB

    HJ Hero bets 2.5BB
    CO Folds
    Button Calls Stack size ?? (Professional) Calls 2.5
    SB Calls 2.5 and has 20 BB
    BB 3 Bets to 7.5BB TAG Pro Has not been active

    Pot=((75*9/600)+7.5+7.5)= 16.1BB: ES=20.5BB(Hero); SPR=1.3

    Discussion:

    Ok the pot now represents ~79% of you stack, the simple question here is either fold or shove as calling is out of the question (>5% of your stack) So now the question is to fold or shove. To me this is a clear shove. My feeling is that V-3 raise here is most likely a squeeze play especially in light of his image and the fact you have taken the lead 4 out of the last 6 hands. You appear to be LAG and here is a perfect spot for him to execute this play.

    So First I ask you what was the plan for your hand, in other words how were you going to play the hand??

    Second What range would you give villains; Specifically V-3. V-3 is a Pro so I would expect him to have a 3-bet steal range so here would be a 3-bet steal range I would expect to see from a pro (AA-JJ,44-22,AKo-AQo,AKs-AQs,A9s-A6s,K9s-K4s,QTs-Q9s,JTs,T8s,97s,87s-86s,76s,65s) this is approx. a 10.4% range which will randomly hit approx. 36% of the time. He will Flop 3 of a kind ~3.9% of the time; 2pair1.32% of the time; Over Pair 8.9%; TP 10.7%; PP below TP 4.0%; Middle Pair 6.4%; Weak Pair 15.1%; Ace High 18.7%; no made hand 28.8%; Over cards 16.0%; OESD 3.0%; Gutshot 8.6%; Nut Flush draw 0.3%; and a 2 card FD 6.7% of the time.
    I think giving him a 3-bet range of just QQ+AK is just to narrow especially in this situation as IMO it is a perfect spot for a squeeze play, which any pro should recognize and especially this villain as he has been playing tight and as the big stack to enforce his move.

    Third in light of my analysis of V-3 and his move how does my hand hold up against his range
    So My Hand is good about 54% vs V-3 46% with a 7.6% possible tie.

    My BE= (5.0/(16.1+5.0))=23.5%

    When I play a tournament I play to win I try to avoid difficult decisions by not putting myself in them in the first place. That being said when I do decide to get involved I follow the fundamental theorem of poker which is to put your opponent to a meaningful decision for his chips. So in this case I am 4-bet shoving my 20.5BB sack maximizing my fold equity. Villain now has to decide if he wants to risk 50% of his remaining stack. Am I going to lose sometimes? Yes, but I am winning more than loosing

    So I shove


    Hope this was helpful
    Thx for posting

    Doc

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