Folding AA to reraise on wet flop in 3-way late?

KnampfKnampf Red Chipper Posts: 162 ✭✭
edited September 2016 in Online Poker Hands
Hi

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/20818970_292D6D6C64
Me: AA Player 3: unknown

I have stats from P3 over 392 hands:
VPIP:16 PR:11
Fold to Steal:67
CB:65 FoldCB:83

Preflop: standard raise

Flop: I bet much because it was 3-way, to make draws pay. There are quite many. I folded because he would raise much that beats me, like two-pair, a set. He would bluff with some I beat, but I have the flush draw blocker ace. He can't have Adxd. Also, I expect to make his ranges smaller by betting so much. He has more value now. Player 2 seems weaker because of his stack.

How would you play, how did I play?
If P2 were to raise, what range would he do this with? I guess strong flush draws, two-pair, sets and he would flat call overpairs and maybe other pairs.

Comments

  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    first - I'm not sure your flop bet was "standard"
    most players seem to be betting .15 pre
    and you've even done so with your QQ in this hand
    so I think you made it .20 because you really liked your hand.

    next - betting flop...
    if you've watched some of the Brokos videos here - you'd see that the :TD::9S::3D: flop hits your opponent's range much harder than yours. It's called "range disadvantage." And when that occurs - it's not a bad idea to check the flop.

    but you did bet and got check/raised.
    Sure V could have TT, 99, T9 and 33 in his range.
    How many combos is that?
    3 combos of TT, 3 combos of 99, 3 combos of 33.
    If he's calling with T9s - then he's only got 2 combos - :TC::9C: , :TH::9H:
    so 11 combos beat us.

    But what also can V have that he check raises with?
    combo draws seem likely...
    :JD::9D: , :JD::QD: , :8D::9D: , :8D::7D: , :JD::8D:, :KD::9D: ... actually, most :9D::XD: seem to fit the bill.
    not to mention :KD::QD:
    But he might also do this with a lot of just naked str8 draws -
    like most QJs, J8s, 89s
    as well as
    ATs or even KTs.

    which brings me back to your flop bet
    when you have range disadvantage, wouldn't it be better to check?

    especially since you've got the :AD: -
    if the turn comes a :DIAMOND: - you're in line to have the nuts!

    I think looking at this hand in a vacuum - IMO your thought process is off.
    preflop bet too big.
    c-bet too ambitious
    fold too weak.

    But I don't play much online poker anymore - so maybe I'm off
  • KnampfKnampf Red Chipper Posts: 162 ✭✭
    edited September 2016
    I have two preflop sizes: 20ct from EP, 17ct from all others. I adjust sometimes. If players to my left are looser, I bet more as here. I said in one of my previous posts that I don't bet based on hand.
    Also, this hand is 3 months old. My poker has changed a lot since then.

    I think, I shouldn't check because he has so many draws and it's just too comfortable for him. Also, they were 2. At least one of them would call top pair or maybe mid pair, especially the smaller stack.

    I don't know how it's live, but at online micros, I think he wouldn't raise pair + backdoor straight draw by far. I just saw now, that he also has a flush draw... Ok, now I see how dangerous his draws are. It's if the flop has connected cards and is two-one. There are quite many draws which are even better than my hand but there are more which are clearly worse than AA and which would have a free card. At the micros, you are raised pretty rarely. That makes him stronger. I just think, that I can get value by their wide calling range. For every suited diamond combo you give him, there are 3 suited non-diamond combinations. He would have a pair or a far weaker draw he first has to be able to fold. And I can still fold if he hits the turn dangerously which he probably won't anyway. As you already said, if a diamond comes, I still have many outs even if he has a flush now. I have to admit that I was up to reevalute the turn if I am called.

    How about a third opinion?
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Knampf wrote: »
    I just saw now, that he also has a flush draw...

  • purdrewpurdrew Red Chipper Posts: 48 ✭✭
    I personally would have played this hard and fast. Raise pre, Bet/shove on the flop. If behind two pair or a set, we have outs. Tons of draws out there, not just nuts as Kagey correctly pointed out.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    edited October 2016
    @kagey
    kagey wrote: »
    if you've watched some of the Brokos videos here - you'd see that the :TD::9S::3D: flop hits your opponent's range much harder than yours. It's called "range disadvantage."

    How's that ? I'm curious. Because here i'll have 99-TT-33-9T, Every Aces suited in Diamonds, Every PP over TT, QJ, KQ

    I think we got tons of value and semi-bluffs here.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    kagey wrote: »
    if you've watched some of the Brokos videos here - you'd see that the :TD::9S::3D: flop hits your opponent's range much harder than yours. It's called "range disadvantage."

    How's that ? I'm curious. Because here i'll have 99-TT-33-9T, Every Aces suited in Diamonds, Every PP over TT, QJ, KQ

    I think we got tons of value and semi-bluffs here.

    Let's review:
    Hero raises from LP with :AH::AD: - 20
    Both blinds call
    Pot 60

    Flop is :TD::9S::3D:

    Both blinds check
    Hero bets 47
    SB folds
    BB raises to 135 (with 345 remaining)
    Hero's got 644 behind.


    we can have...
    3 combos of 99, TT and 33 for 9 total combos
    All :AD::XD: - 9 combos
    JJ+ for 24 combos
    QJs - for 4 combos
    KQs - for 4 combos
    for a total of 38 combos!

    okay...
    but how many combos did we open with?
    If we've got ALL AXdd - then we're also opening ALL AXcc, AXhh & AXss
    (same is true for KXdd & all other KXs....)
    If we're opening QJs and T9s - then we're also opening 98s, 87s, 76s, JTs... and maybe even 65s.
    If we're opening 33 - then we're basically opening ALL pocket pairs.

    When you consider our ENTIRE opening range... the 38 combos listed are a TINY % of what you will/should continue with. In fact, if you open only a select 17% of hands (which is kind of tight) - we're opening with 222 combos!
    And you think that continuing with 38 out of 222 combos gives us an advantage?

    @Adam Wheeler - this is not to say we're not playing a range that can hit this flop.
    While we've got a ton of pps and suited connectors in our range - let's face it, our range is A, K and Q heavy.
    On a T-high flop - our opponents stand to hold more of the lower cards (hence why they called and didn't 3-bet us) - and this flop hits them waaaay harder than it does us.

    This flop is "range disadvantage" for our entire opening range.
    Make sense?

  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    Now do the same for Villains
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    edited October 2016
    Let's breakdown this with ranges equity.

    BB called after SB flat call the CO opening raise so his range is probably really wide here.

    Let's say we open this :
    f3o2zxutfpij.png

    Let's say Villains call with this :
    gffnit6buyic.png

    On this Flop

    :9s:Td:3d

    Our equity vs. Villain's range going to turn is ~57%

    When we bet we do it with Value portion of our range and semi-bluff that flirt with 50% +/- Equity, so we do it with this :
    yaaewceugm7w.png

    So out of those 438 combos 170 are 50% or more in equity. Which account for ~39% of our entire range.

    Than when villain X/R he is doing it with Value and probably semis too, so let's assume that he got all his aces suited in diamonds in that x/r range here and OESD+FD in diamonds :
    ksq3xbxk6eqi.png

    It's 83 combos out of 484 combos so it's 17% of his entire calling range.

    Now with that x/r it defines clearly well what his range is and Now he is favourite but on flop its not even close to say that it gives him advantage i think.

    So this his our heat map in terms of equity facing his x/r :
    ysyo1p6n2vh9.png

    And this is his heat map :
    h740o6n906e0.png

    Notice that practically all he got in Value here and semis-bluff WE got it too in our range.
    That's why i really got difficulties to figure why we would be in a disadvantage on this flop since our range contains much more value than his as i showed you with combos %.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    edited October 2016
    kagey wrote: »
    On a T-high flop - our opponents stand to hold more of the lower cards

    As i showed with combos % that is not really relevant since he will have a lot more air in his range.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    kagey wrote: »
    On a T-high flop - our opponents stand to hold more of the lower cards

    As i showed with combos % that is not really relevant since he will have a lot more air in his range.

    LOL at V's calling range from the BB!
    Do you really think V is flatting a LP raise from the oop online with 36.5% of ALL hands???

    If you think V is calling with 32s, 42s and all kinds of trash... then, yeah - you're 100% right. This flop hits our range more than V's.
    We don't have range disadvantage.
    You win the argument.
    Congratulations.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    edited October 2016
    What FC range you give villain BB ? I'm up for discussion. BTW great reaction ! Is it something you always do ? You come in thread pitch 2 or 3 advices like ITS THE ANSWER and lol at everything else ?

    Even if Its a much narrower range for BB how come villain will beat us more often flop since we got all his value combos in our range too on flop ? That is the question i asked you and you didn't answered.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    edited October 2016
    Let's do this all over again than.

    Let's say Villain 3-bet CO in the BB with TT+, AQ+, AJs and KQs. So we are taking those hands out of his range flop.

    Lets give him the rest of the PP in his FC range and the rest of broadway connectors + some Mid SC and Aces suited.


    His Raise/calling range could look like this :
    t50tw4fwpq66.png

    Let's take the same OP raising range :
    3zti5yyfsxp8.png

    THE FLOP :
    :9s:Td:3d

    Our equity going to turn : ~48%
    Villain equity going to turn : ~52%

    We bet all our Value + Semi Bluffs that got a bit more than 50% on this flop :
    locc0i4424db.png

    Villain x/r in value :
    uw7oyw9ifl4p.png

    This is the heat map of our range after the X/R and we decide obviously to call or shove with only value here.

    So our range goes from that after the X/R :
    4hohypr1757p.png

    To this :
    fwlgsq4raoy3.png

    How does the flop is better for villain ?

    We will always have more value combos than villain and we will have the same value combos that villain got.





  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,296 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Adam, good work on this, but the measurement of range advantage is not merely one flop's interaction of all your value combos. Everyone's range will have some number of hands that interact with this board. Given that you will bet the hands you listed, which are a sliver of your overall combos, this means you are checking everything you have missed in order to come up with hands to bet. Your checking range is now garbage and further, you are just blasting in equity vs. equity on this board at a slight advantage, as you have shown.

    Over the long term, if you are checking 88% of your hands and giving up, or only continuing with 1/20th of your entire range against flop pressure, whether you have it now or not, is a big problem as you reiterate this situation, over and over. And then look at what happens with this extreme value heavy aggression - you end up not having any bluffs at all, when the runout could have aided significant parts of hero's range.

    Finally, to put it another way, you have about 21 combos in your heat map which demonstrably smash this board, whereas on AK2, you have literally dozens of hands. That is absolute range advantage, and using it will protect your continuing hands better than 1093dd can. That is range advantage in action: it's a spectrum that reflects the flop and community card runout.

    ***************************************************

    As for the hand itself, b/f Aces is not a good line. This is where using the board will help you. If your plan is to bet/fold, you can use any number of low equity hands to fulfill this function- especially if you are someone who would insist this board belongs to the PFR based on value combos. It would be better to bet/continue this hand in particular, recognizing all the draws that can apply pressure, or as Kagey is essentially suggesting, have a value checking range - especially so when the turn can dramatically improve a hand, as it can here.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    Thanks Persuadeo, i greatly appreciate this gold response. You could have just "LoL" but you didn't ;)
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    @Adam Wheeler

    in the theoretical game of range vs range, your calculations are now more accurate.
    as Brokos showed in his videos, whether we're tighter or V is tighter - it doesn't really change the equities drastically. In a range vs range calculation - we're close to even - before the flop. This we can agree on.

    But when the flop comes, this is where we'll just have to agree to disagree.
    Since we can agree that Hero should have most of the AKs, AQs, AA, KK, QQ and maybe AJs (because V just called Hero's bet) - then we can agree that when the flop comes with any A, K or Q... Hero probably has the strongest holdings, right?

    Ok - so when the flop comes with As, Ks and Qs - we can say that Hero has "range advantage" - meaning the flop hits Hero's range harder (and better) that it would V's.

    But what happens when the flop is T-high?
    According to our range - we should have some of those cards as well, right?
    In theoretical terms, yes.
    Yet in V's range - he should have the majority of these cards in his range, right?
    So you probably think that the board is "range neutral."
    But I don't see it that way.
    As I stated above- we should have "some" of these cards in our range - while V should have the "majority" of these cards in his.
    Advantage: the limpers/callers.

    Why?
    Because in the lowest limit games - guys are typically forking their ranges into the strongest range, which they open - and the medium range, which they limp/call.
    I found it rare to ever see a guy who opens with 33 (from any position).
    Yet I found it normal for someone to limp or call with 33. Same for T9.
    (Maybe you've experienced different action in your games?)

    You've got to remember, you're a smart, poker-studying player. 90% of players are not.
    Most of them have never thought to sit down and create a raising, calling or 3-betting range. They just react to the challenges as they come. They go with the flow.
    They look at their hand and consider: is this hand worth XX that was bet pre-flop? should I fold this? can I raise with this? (usually, in that order!)

    So in an opened pot that's c-bet, this board favors players that are limping or calling - rather than the aggressor. I see this board as hitting the callers more than the raiser.

    But why not ask @Knampf ?

    Maybe I'm off my rocker... What's HIS opening range?


    BTW - as far as ranges:
    I think V probably calls with this:
    9bxlw1h14vva.jpg

    and probably check/raises with this:
    rz4v0ft38ts6.jpg


    unless V and Hero have history, or Hero c-bets too much, or raises too much
    or whatever other leveling thing that may/could happen...
    I find it very rare for 2¢/5¢ players to make Galfond-like moves.

    because of this - since V has no clue of what our "range" is - and whether or not we're playing a "range" - he's going to be playing has actual hand.
    Since he's doing this, we should be doing the same.
    Besides... do we really bet TT or 99 here?
    Do we never, ever check back any hand here that's strong?
    (maybe we should)
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    edited October 2016
    @kagey @persuadeo Ok, thanks guys for the explanation. Since English is my second language I need to ask some questions sometimes specifically on theoretical topics.

    So basically what I see at first glance and what I understand is that even if we got a heavy broadway portion in our range that villain doesn't have, it gives us more combos overall and so even if we have the same "hit" portion on this flop, it hit Villains range in a bigger ratio% since he got less combos overall than us. So given we have a lot air in our range, it is weaker on a T high flop.

    Am I understanding this the right way ?
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    @Adam Wheeler
    yes.
    while flop hits both ranges, it hits V's range "harder" than it does Hero's.

    Sorry for the "LOL" - I thought you were just looking to win the argument.
    As you know - you can range anybody so wide that you can justify any action.
    But when you give players a more realistic range - the solutions are a little more obvious.
  • KnampfKnampf Red Chipper Posts: 162 ✭✭
    My opening ranges vary much. BB is pretty loose. I have in CO like 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,A8o+,KTo+,QTo+. I adjust to opponents.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    Thanks Persuadeo, i greatly appreciate this gold response. You could have just "LoL" but you didn't ;)

    Sometimes I just LOL. I shouldn't as a founder but hey...I give a lot too.
    A lil trolling is good for the building thick skin to the members.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    edited October 2016
    Thanks Persuadeo, i greatly appreciate this gold response. You could have just "LoL" but you didn't ;)

    Sometimes I just LOL. I shouldn't as a founder but hey...I give a lot too.
    A lil trolling is good for the building thick skin to the members.

    @Christian Soto I personally think that there is good spot to "lol" and not so good spot. It depends on the dynamics of the thread :)

    None the less if every time i get loled at i learn something new well..be it !

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