# Red Chip Poker Break Even Fold Equity Calculator

Please tell me what I am missing. To get a Break Even Fold Equity Percentage I believe the Money Won using Hero's Estimated Equity Percentage When Called plus Money Won using Hero's Break Even Fold Equity Percentage minus the Money Lost using Hero's Losing Percentage (100% - Estimated Equity Percentage - Break Even Equity Percentage) needs to Accumulate to Zero which shows an Expected Value Equal Zero.

On Red Chip Poker Fold Equity Calculator the following appears:
Pot = \$300
Shove Amount = \$350
Estimated Percent Equity When Called = 18%
Calculated Fold Equity To Break Even = 36%

When I run the numbers from the website of the above numbers I get the Following with an EV +\$64:
Win 18% x \$650 = +\$117 (Win Pot + Villain Calling Bet)
Win 36% x \$300 = +\$108 (Win Only Pot, Fold Equity Percentage and Winnings)
Lose 46% x \$350 = -\$161 (Lose Hero Bet)

When I run the numbers using my formula I get the Following with an EV +0:
Win 18% x \$650 = +\$117
Win 26.154% x \$300 = +\$78.46 (Fold Equity Percentage and Winnings)
Lose 55.846% x \$350 = -\$195.46

Thank You.

• I do believe the Break Even Fold Equity Percent for the post is 26%, 26.154% to be exact, not 36%. The proof is in the numbers below which return an EV of 0 using 26.154%. When Hero Shoves All-In Hero has 3 possibilities other than Villain Calling with a Tie and Splitting the Pot. Those three possibilities are as follows:
Win Pot(\$300) + Villain Calling Bet (\$350), Based on 18% Pot Equity When Called
Win Pot(\$300) , Based on Villain Folding
Lose Bet(\$350), Villain Calls With Best Hand

Win 18% x \$650 = +\$117
Win 26.154% x \$300 = +\$78.46 (Fold Equity Percentage and Winnings)
Lose 55.846% x \$350 = -\$195.46
EV=0, \$117 + \$78.46 - \$195.46.

Red Chip Poker Break Even Fold Equity Calculator results in an EV of +\$64:
Win 18% x \$650 = +\$117 (Win Pot + Villain Calling Bet)
Win 36% x \$300 = +\$108 (Win Only Pot, Fold Equity Percentage and Winnings)
Lose 46% x \$350 = -\$161 (Lose Hero Bet)
EV=+\$64, \$117 + \$108 - \$161.

If I am incorrect please disprove the hand summations above.

Thank you.

• You are 100% correct that there are 3 possible outcomes:

Hero shoves, they fold, we win \$300
Hero shoves, they call, we win \$650
Hero shoves, they call, we lose \$350

The frequencies for those actions are (using the 36% breakeven #)

First result, 36%
Second, =(1-.36)*.18 = 11.5%
Third = (1-.36) * (1-.18) = 52.5%

So the total formula is

(\$300*.36) + (\$650*.115) - (\$350*.525) = -\$1, or pretty darn close to \$0

As such, 36% Breakeven is the correct number. If we solve using 26% we get -\$48.

I'm not 100% sure where your formula/setup broke down...but hopefully that helps you get in there and spot it =) 