Red Chip Poker Break Even Fold Equity Calculator

DrivenDriven Red Chipper Posts: 2
Please tell me what I am missing. To get a Break Even Fold Equity Percentage I believe the Money Won using Hero's Estimated Equity Percentage When Called plus Money Won using Hero's Break Even Fold Equity Percentage minus the Money Lost using Hero's Losing Percentage (100% - Estimated Equity Percentage - Break Even Equity Percentage) needs to Accumulate to Zero which shows an Expected Value Equal Zero.

On Red Chip Poker Fold Equity Calculator the following appears:
Pot = $300
Shove Amount = $350
Estimated Percent Equity When Called = 18%
Calculated Fold Equity To Break Even = 36%

When I run the numbers from the website of the above numbers I get the Following with an EV +$64:
Win 18% x $650 = +$117 (Win Pot + Villain Calling Bet)
Win 36% x $300 = +$108 (Win Only Pot, Fold Equity Percentage and Winnings)
Lose 46% x $350 = -$161 (Lose Hero Bet)

When I run the numbers using my formula I get the Following with an EV +0:
Win 18% x $650 = +$117
Win 26.154% x $300 = +$78.46 (Fold Equity Percentage and Winnings)
Lose 55.846% x $350 = -$195.46

Appreciate your input.

Thank You.

Best Answer

Answers

  • DrivenDriven Red Chipper Posts: 2
    I do believe the Break Even Fold Equity Percent for the post is 26%, 26.154% to be exact, not 36%. The proof is in the numbers below which return an EV of 0 using 26.154%. When Hero Shoves All-In Hero has 3 possibilities other than Villain Calling with a Tie and Splitting the Pot. Those three possibilities are as follows:
    Win Pot($300) + Villain Calling Bet ($350), Based on 18% Pot Equity When Called
    Win Pot($300) , Based on Villain Folding
    Lose Bet($350), Villain Calls With Best Hand

    Win 18% x $650 = +$117
    Win 26.154% x $300 = +$78.46 (Fold Equity Percentage and Winnings)
    Lose 55.846% x $350 = -$195.46
    EV=0, $117 + $78.46 - $195.46.

    Red Chip Poker Break Even Fold Equity Calculator results in an EV of +$64:
    Win 18% x $650 = +$117 (Win Pot + Villain Calling Bet)
    Win 36% x $300 = +$108 (Win Only Pot, Fold Equity Percentage and Winnings)
    Lose 46% x $350 = -$161 (Lose Hero Bet)
    EV=+$64, $117 + $108 - $161.

    If I am incorrect please disprove the hand summations above.

    Thank you.

  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,034 -
    You are 100% correct that there are 3 possible outcomes:

    Hero shoves, they fold, we win $300
    Hero shoves, they call, we win $650
    Hero shoves, they call, we lose $350

    The frequencies for those actions are (using the 36% breakeven #)

    First result, 36%
    Second, =(1-.36)*.18 = 11.5%
    Third = (1-.36) * (1-.18) = 52.5%

    So the total formula is

    ($300*.36) + ($650*.115) - ($350*.525) = -$1, or pretty darn close to $0

    As such, 36% Breakeven is the correct number. If we solve using 26% we get -$48.

    I'm not 100% sure where your formula/setup broke down...but hopefully that helps you get in there and spot it =)

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file