Don't pay them off vs stop being nitty

Jimmy3150Jimmy3150 Red Chipper Posts: 362 ✭✭
1/2 cash game
Hero has tight image, 200BB
Villain is ABC TAG, never seen him make a move, 200BB

Hero opens to 12 in EP with :Jh:Jd
Villain quickly calls in MP
CO and button both call

Flop :4h:7c:9s (pot 51)

Hero cbet 35, villain calls quickly, others fold. I was immediately concerned about the 9 combos of sets here. He's more likely to have flatted me pre with 77 or 99 than a suited one gapper like 810 or 79.

Turn :4d

hero checks, villain hesitates, then checks.

River :8c

It's not a great river, if he floated me with 10J or 56 then he gets there, though both those holdings I think are unlikely. Hero checks, villain bets 70.

So I'm getting a pretty good price to call and I'm fairly under-repped with an overpair. Even though turn checked through, he is unlikely to be bluffing just because he's v ABC - so he's probably betting with what he thinks is the best hand. I can beat 1010, he doesn't have an overpair to my JJ as I think he would have at least considered a 3-bet pre. So I think he probably has a boat. Can I make a tight fold here?


  • David Kimweli Jr.David Kimweli Jr. Red Chipper Posts: 161
    I wouldn't hero fold this river because even an ABC villain might think pocket 6's/5's/A9s were safe to value bet when the turn was checked through. When you add those combos to his pocket T's you can call the river pretty profitably.
  • SaintsTigersSaintsTigers Red Chipper Posts: 238 ✭✭
    edited September 2016
    In the future I'd be more careful about how you interpret his snap call. While you were instantly worried about sets, yet there're are only 9 combos of those on the flop. If he plays suited A9 suited, there are 3 combos of TPTK out. Plus 6 combos of pocket 10s, to say nothing of the huge amount of straight draws given the coordinated texture of the board.

    Also, since he's ABC/TAG you can safely bet/fold the turn. I'm not worried about him raising the turn with a draw since most players who want to raise with a draw do so on the flop.

    As played, I'd call the river. You checked twice after taking an open pf, cbet flop line, making your hand really under represented.
  • Riverboat BillRiverboat Bill Red Chipper Posts: 454 ✭✭
    I just paid somebody off. It sucks. I am pissed. Mad. Ready to fight. Going to kick my dog. It's bad. Awful.

    Well, it has been a long time since I did it. A real long time. That's improvement. I made a decision to call. I looked at the pot and decided I needed to be right x amount of times. So, maybe it's not as bad.

    But I was barreling the hand? That's how I take down a lot of pots. Do I want to give all those pots back so I can be a NIT? I don't think so. Still, I don't like it. I can do better. The player I called was a tag/nit. Oh well. If I want my money back, time to go win it.

  • Jimmy3150Jimmy3150 Red Chipper Posts: 362 ✭✭
    Awesome rant :-)
  • BoilerAceBoilerAce Red Chipper Posts: 429 ✭✭✭
    Take this with a grain of salt because I'm still learning. I don't post my opinions much on hands but I want to play along.

    From what you've said, I think its very likely that the villain has A9 suited in this position or pocket 10s. I think the villain is just as worried about his hand as you are. I would have fired another barrel on the turn to see what happens....and you probably would have won it right there. And I would have folded to a reraise (because he has a set or QQ).

    However, since you checked the turn, the tough decision is now on the river....a really tough decision because other draws could have been hit and you are out of position. I would have bet $50 for value to but the decision on him and folded to a reraise. This is what I would do but maybe it's that awful probe bet that everyone frowns upon. I would like to get opinions on that.

    Since you checked, I don't think $70 is a huge bet by now you are in bind. I probably would nit fold here but that's just saving money when I'm in a bind and not knowing know what the right play is (conservative play).
  • PokernoobPokernoob Red Chipper Posts: 87
    Like others have said, just bet-fold turn if you think villain is ABC. There are a bunch of hands he can call the Flop with. His check on the Turn does not mean full house.

    A6s-AJ, JT, K9, K8, KT, QJ... Basically overcards going for a pair/backdoor draw. I wouldn't worry about sets. Size your bet good so you can fold with confidence.

    I wouldn't mind bet-folding the River as well. Check-call is fine as well. If he shows up with a full house, he lost value by playing passive. No big deal. Next hand.
  • Mike VMike V Red Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
    edited September 2016
    I think you are good here a large percentage of the time. I think his checks really cap his range. Why did you stop betting the turn or river? Pretty sure if you bet the turn, he folds. If not, fire on the river for value.

    If he has a set on the flop you get re-raised and for sure you get re-raised if he turns a full house. His bet at the end just looks like a stab at a pot that nobody seems to want.
  • Mr. DontMr. Dont Red Chipper Posts: 370 ✭✭✭
    First of all, don't worry about sets, it's hard to make it but it was my first concern when I got raised. He could call pre and post flop with any pair, draw, over card...

    Based on your description, I feel more likely he has 79, counterfeited turn?? You don't want to pay off but can't fold to bet or raise everytime.

    Turn card was actually good card cause now you're ahead over 79. More value bet spot for me, I think turn check was somewhat mistake.
  • Jimmy3150Jimmy3150 Red Chipper Posts: 362 ✭✭
    edited September 2016
    I'm starting to wonder whether London games are nittier than most others. I thought that this player would only call a £35 cbet with a strong range in a multi-way pot, even top pair no kicker he may consider folding, at least he would have more of a decision that he would need to think about - so I thought the quick call was skewed towards strength hence I went into a showdown value mindset.

    However ... my passive line on turn and river is also a function of some current run bad (running overpairs into sets a lot...). I agree I should be betting turn here.
  • Jimmy3150Jimmy3150 Red Chipper Posts: 362 ✭✭
    I did end up calling on the basis that I was getting a good price plus if I start folding overpairs on this kind of board run out I'm becoming a nit/exploitable. He did have 77 for the boat. Slightly frustrating to have paid him off after my initial read on the flop was correct; these spots are all about minimising loss.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    One thing you guys are overlooking is that while it's easy to bet/fold the turn, it's not so easy to know what to do when your turn bet is called and now he bets into you on the river. Maybe you want to put that in the same category as bet/fold the turn, I don't know. But there is a difference in that scenario, because in that scenario villain saw you back off and check a street.

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