question on what happens if we shove the river on hand 18.

Aka DubsAka Dubs Red Chipper Posts: 33 ✭✭
edited September 2016 in Live Workbook (Vol 1)
I went through the process of the hand in the hand thread, but I wanted to post a interesting thought that I had for discussion.

The hand goes: we open 99 utg and get called in 3 spots. the flop is 245 with a spade fd. We bet 25 into 40, and get called by an unknown in position, everyone else folds. turn is another 5, which we check, and op checks behind. River is an A of hearts, we check and op bets 3/4 pot of 70. as played its a crying call dependant on the amount of busted fd's we believe is in his range.

The question here is: Should we be be considering shoving the river, at least part of the time?

If he is a nit/ typical 1/2 - 2/5 tag that can bet fold the river (and only really reads his hand), we should be able to get him off of a ace here, and any pp he happened to bet for value on the river. We should get him off of a6 to aq, which is 78 combos/40% of his range BUT is the majority of his value range, but its too weak to call a jam. (sometimes he might call with aq, but there will be other times that he bet/folds jj or 1010, but over all I think this is a good estimation)

Our range can contain AA, although its not the standard way to play it. regardless, most people at live 1/2 & 2/5 live are only really reading their hand and their hand strength. this is player dependant, and I wouldn't do it all the time. It would be 145 more into a pot of 230. if this works 1 out of 3 times we show a $85 profit, and does not take into account the times that he is bluffing and we would have won regardless. is the math correct here?

I would like it better if we were in middle position as we would have more 5's in our perceived range, but that doesn't matter if they are only reading their hand. Also we are a perceived nit, if op is paying attention, op would only believe we shove with the stone nuts. we need a player that just plays their hand and doesn't hand read too well, or is just super nitty to pull this off.

Just wondered people's thoughts on this line.

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