I can't fold this [SATTY wicked ICM situation with second nuts]

uglytunauglytuna Red Chipper Posts: 109 ✭✭
edited December 2016 in Tournament Poker Hands
I took one on the chin last night and I'm not here to tell you a bad beat story. I'm not looking for pity.

No one knows more than me that poker can be a brutal game. I'm numb to coolers, bad beats and poker variance, it's just part of this game. I've been on both sides of these beats just as every recreational, amateur and professional has.

I've accumulated countless hours, educating, absorbing and analyze poker hands in various different situations.

However I personally never been in a situation, in which I just witness a few hours ago. Never in all my years I've been playing, did I come across a scenario like this. This one left me feeling like I've been suckered punched.

If you allow me, I want to put you in my shoes and you can tell me what the correct play is. Then humor me what you would of done?

I blew my chance at a $10,000 seat plus air fare to this year’s WSOP Main Event. This one will sting for quite some time.

I'm my own worst critic and value any opinion of this hand history from anyone I respect in this game.

So yesterday I'm playing in a charity event which raises money for kid with disabilities. I'm such sucker for charities. I'm actually affiliated with this charity and have a small part in making this event a huge success.


This event had 153 players competing for two WSOP $10k Main Event seats. My expectations were never about winning a seat but rather playing my best and maybe put myself in position to win a seat.
Nearly 12 hours later, we are 4 handed and the next player out is guarantee a $1675 WSOP circuit event seat. 3rd place receives a Borgata $2700 championship seat.

I've put myself in good position to win one of these seats. I was sitting on a stack of 1.3 million. The chip leader (1.5 million) was a reckless LAG female player. She was a level one thinker and only saw her own cards. Scouting her for several hours she has zero to little disregard to what anyone else is holding or play post flop well.

Let me explain, 6 or 7 handed on the final table she flatted my opening raises OOP on several occasions and only to have her donk out on the flop with poor bet sizing. Numerous times I folded top pair, including AQ on an Ace high rainbow board.

Why did I make such tight folds? Well because we were the two chip leaders. I didn't want to tangle with the one person that can cripple me or eliminate me.

In one instance, she limped UTG and I flopped top pair with A8s and I check folded showing my top pair. I even made a comment that, if this was a regular tournament I would 3bet shoved in this spot because of her loose image. She was totally oblivious to any tournament dynamics at this point. The tournament dynamics at four handed were such as a Survivor format. Rather then your back room $50 bar game freezeout. She had no concept that she doesn't need to win every chip in play.

So I folded on numerous occasions while shorthanded. I only folded because felt like I had an edge on the field. Plus also the table stack sizes played a major factor too.

I don't think her antics tilted me but did slightly annoyed me because she didn't get it. She was the type who bets into a dry side point with Ace high. Her reckless style proved that she was fearless. Her aggression was based off hand values. That's what dictated how hard she pressed the action. She had no clue to other factors surrounding her such as stack sizes, game theory or any table dynamics.
So this history leads her, limping 80k UTG 4 handed from a 1.5 million stack. The button who has 350k folds. The SB with 400k completes his option. So with :Kh :3h in the big blind I was happy to see a free flop.

FLOP: :9h :5h :2h

The SB lead 125K into roughly a 250k pot.

I thought for bit and methodically and carefully raised to 250k. Figured this was the best way to induce / commit the SB to call off his remaining chips.

No sooner I raised, the chip leader instantly announced she was "Allin". My eyes grew wide upon her announcement. The SB slowly got out of the way and folded his hand.

She did it again, raising me this time now for all my chips without a second to consider any of her options.
It took me ten seconds to conclude that she DID NOT have an Ace high flush. Her range is so wide here. I felt very confident that she would of raised PF with any Ace as she had done in the past.

As I stood up in my seat, I told her, "I can't fold this!!!!". I'm sorry I can't fold nor good enough to let this hand go. I just have too much equity. I flopped the second nuts and I'm pretty fucking confident I'm two cards away from a 2015 WSOP Main Event Seat.

Very smugly, I announce CALL!!!!

She turns over a set of 5's and remarks, "OMG, I never thought you could possibly have a flush?"

Then again when did you ever consider what anyone holds, I said to myself.

This is the same girl who called off 80% of her stack with KT against KJ PF allin, earlier in the event.

So I walked away from the table, too nervous to see my fate. I was half way across the room when I heard her the dreaded scream of excitement. My head hung low upon the bad news.

I was greeted back to the table with apologies from the chip leader. I shook her hand and congratulated her and wished her well.

Call it a cooler, call it a bad beat I don't care. I'm not looking for pity. I'm here to ask you how bad did I blow this?

Can I fold this hand? Professional high stakes poker player and poker ambassador Jason Koon attended our event. He consoled me and remarked that nothing you can do there buddy. Then congratulated me for winning a $1675 WSOP Circuit Event seat.

Jason doesn't know who I am, nor does he probably care. He doesn't understand how seriously I take this game.

When emotions calmed down, I asked him later if I was supposed to fold that hand and indirectly to my question he told me a story. Jason proceeded to tell me how he busted 4th in a $25k satellite into last year for the One Drop Million Dollar buyin event. He busted 4th like me when top 3 were awarded seats and 4th got nothing. So he shook my hand and shrug his shoulders.

I still don't think his comments were truthful or he at the very least didn't understand the situation I was in.

Why? Because the more I think about this hand, the more I think I played it wrong. I don't think I'm good enough to lay down the second nuts with two cards to come. Is Jason really going to say yeah you blew it?

Anyways, poker is about edges, I had a huge edge when the money went in. Unlike prevous confrontations with her, my edge was no bigger than this spot.

Evidently, if I did somehow find a fold, I'm still left with just a bit over one million chips. I'll also be in good shape over the short stacks.

To be honest, when she went all in I only gave it only about 10 seconds of thought. Her limping range PF is so wide here. Can I really talk myself out into a fold again?

My biggest regret I made in this hand regardless if I won or not, I did not take my take my time and clearly think through all my options. I made my decision in just ten seconds. My only thoughts we re, if she had the nut flush or drawing with the ace of hearts. That's it !!! Just maybe, if I gave more thought to the situation and assess the short stacks situation. The blinds we so high that their fate would be determined very soon.

Now open admittedly to that, I'm not sure if I would still folded after considering all my options. My edge was so big here and she may be drawing dead a lot of the times here.

On the contrary, if I somehow found a way to fold and I still bubbled the Main Event seat, I will have the pain of regret, of not taking my chances with my second nuts.

Can you fold this? Hindsight it definitely screams fold. I'm the type of player who doesn't shy of bubbling, I always play for the win. Yet I don't get to play for $10k Main Event seats too often.

Comments

  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    if you fold this - then you should give up poker

    vs. a player that doesn't understand anything beyond her hand - you HAVE to call.

    sorry for the cooler.
  • JulesJules Red Chipper Posts: 440 ✭✭✭
    OK. I understand the frustration of playing against someone that doesn't know how to play and gets lucky. Super tilting. But you must remember we still need people like that in the game.

    Anyway that is not the issue. To call or not to call that is the question. I would of called, and then puked. Even if you had a suited ace it wouldn't have changed anything. You wouldn't even question your call. I was the bubble girl not long ago for a $5500 entry so I get it! I have relived that moment in my head so many times and it is beyond tilting. I had played all day and dodged a field of almost 600 entries and blew it. Anyway the upside is you did get the circuit ticket! Win that thing and go play the Main!
  • tagliustaglius Red Chipper Posts: 290 ✭✭
    edited December 2016
    You made the correct decision and got your chips in with a big advantage. The end.

    Nice hand.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    There are two distinct components here.

    1) Should you have called this individual bet? Answer: Absolutely. It was a cooler -- she had a good hand with outs, so it's nothing more than a "Nice hand" or "Nice hit" comment (which you offered graciously!).

    2) Should you have called this bet given the scheme that you laid out against her? Honestly, maybe not. You spent a lot of time explaining how you deliberately avoided playing her heads-up even for small pots even when you figured that you were ahead. You explained that you wanted her in the game as long as possible, meaning that you would be heads-up against her. Then, you went against that here.

    To me, if you were dead set on avoiding player her, then you needed to fold this hand almost without a second thought.

    The real question, IMO, is/was the wisdom of deliberately avoiding playing her...
  • tripletiretripletire Red Chipper Posts: 323 ✭✭✭
    The way you described this event is that top 2 get the exact same prize, so this needs to be treated accordingly. The two short stacks have 5 bbs and 4.375 bbs each, while you have 16.25.

    Pay jumps are massive, and the saying goes "the chips you stand to save are worth more than the chips you stand to lose" and that is magnified this late in a satellite. As tough as it sounds, I believe the best play is to fold to her jam. Believe me, I'd be sick about it too though
  • JoskroketJoskroket Red Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
    edited December 2016
    I'm sorry, but with ICM considerations and the bubble factor you can't call. I didn't calculate the exact risk premium, but it will be close for sure. Against her range, with the nut flush in her possible range, I wouldn't be suprised if it was a fold. Even behind she has 8 outs, 34%, and you have more than 16% risk premium.
  • foxxxerfoxxxer Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    Joskroket wrote: »
    I'm sorry, but with ICM considerations and the bubble factor you can't call. I didn't calculate the exact risk premium, but it will be close for sure. Against her range, with the nut flush in her possible range, I wouldn't be suprised if it was a fold. Even behind she has 8 outs, 34%, and you have more than 16% risk premium.

    This. Anyone saying this is an easy call and you just got coolered isn't factoring in ICM at all. If anyone knows ICM better than me and can calculate it in this spot I'd be really interested to know the results. I know due to bubble pressure there are spots in regular tourneys where it's OK to fold even KK in some situations, and the payout structure and chip stacks are such that I wouldn't be surprised if it's wrong to call an all-in with anything but the absolute nuts.

    I think the best way to handle it would probably be to have called behind flop and planned to do same on turn and river, fold to a diamond or paired board.
  • eugeniusjreugeniusjr Red Chipper Posts: 423 ✭✭✭
    It appears villain has the nut flush here. If you are folding the nuts then shouldn't we just say that villain should fold out all of his hands, except Aces, maybe KK? So, are you guys saying the mistake was preflop?

    Maybe the mistake was on the flop. Would you suggest he shove the flop with the nuts here? And when he shoves, does he hope for a fold?
  • foxxxerfoxxxer Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    edited December 2016
    ICMIZER only allows calculating preflop scenarios, but I just tried to set up a similar scenario with the given chipstacks and payout structure. For a placeholder I used 47% payout for 1st and 2nd and 6% for 3rd.

    To approximate a similar decision, I had hero open limp, then the SB call and the big stack jam from the BB. According to the results even KK is a pretty easy fold, with only AA being a call.

    Here are the results.
    http://www.icmpoker.com/icmizer/#CeiqHn
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,002 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 2016
    foxxer you have definitely hit the nail on the head on one important aspect of this hand - when we raise and create a bigger pot we need a plan that is in line with our goals - which is the error the OP fell into. Flatting is better, even though the result may have been the same, because at least then we are coherent and trying to protect our tournament equity rather than inducing action that may be regrettable.

    However, one thing that the OP is forgetting in his grief over this hand is that Edge is not a Guarantee. You can protect yourself only so much. For instance, when he earlier folded AQ to the fun player's lead, he probably let go of the best hand and cost himself tournament equity that may have mattered to how the tournament played out. Equity edge in a hand is factor as real as OP's skill edge, and the point is that both are measurable but Finite.

    In sum, there is no way to avoid the gamble that is inherent to the game, and this truth, I think, suggests that Koon was not brushing the OP off, but giving him frank and simple advice. Time to let it go.
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,769 -
    I am not sure the ICM was input right in ICMizer. Here is my take on it with my own calculations.

    At stacks of

    1,500,000
    350,000
    400,000
    1,300,000

    Payouts (assuming 2k for flights and such on top of $10k seat)

    $12k
    $12k
    $ 2.7k
    $ 1.7k

    Before this hand is dealt, the ICM values are:

    9.8k
    4.4k
    4.8k
    9.4k


    At the moment of decision there are are three situations we care about:

    FOLD
    CALL and win
    CALL and lose

    What are the chip stacks in these situations? We are the last stack of four, Villain is the first.

    Chips if Fold
    2035000 350000 195000 970000

    Chips if Win
    200000 350000 195000 2805000

    Chips if Lose
    3005000 350000 195000 0

    What is the ICM of these three possible outcomes?

    Initial ICM value for reference (in thousands of dollars)

    9.5702 4.5597 5.0561 9.1890
    Fold to jam

    10.8686 5.0337 3.4595 9.0132
    Win when we call

    4.7959 7.0961 4.7847 11.6983
    Lose when we call

    11.8791 8.6799 6.1410 1.6750

    For this to be a call, the weighted average of win ICM (11.6983) and lose ICM (1.6750) must be greater than folding ICM (9.0132)

    (11.6983 * win%) + (1.6750 * (1-win%)) = 9.0132

    or

    (11.6983 * win%) + 1.675 - (1.6750 * win%) = 9.0132

    or

    10.0233 * win% = 9.0132 - 1.675

    or

    10.0233 * win% = 7.3382

    or

    win% = 7.3382 / 10.0233

    or

    win% = 0.7321

    73.21% of the time we must be right here.

    That does not mean it is a fold, it means we need go to flopzilla.

    Lets give her a range based on this shove:
    Sets+ with all possible nut flushes

    We have 37% equity (not surprising against a literal nutted range)

    Lets give all the suited Aces, a smattering of suited connectors and gappers and sets.

    If she is jamming sets, made flushes seems very reasonable

    FrqMoWC.png

    We have 55% equity.

    Let's give her a bunch of naked nut flush draws (half of them actually, don't think it matter which half):

    dXzVNXy.png

    we have 62% equity.

    If we give her every naked nut flush draw we have 64% equity.

    What if we give her every worse flush, every nut flush draw, every set?

    JNcXRxH.png

    We have 72% equity.

    Break even was 73%

    This is one of those weird spots because of the
    • very steep payoff
    • two big stacks
    • two small stacks

    that ICM really bites you.

    It took me about an hour with advanced software to realize this was a fold. My intuition when I first read this was, 18BB, whatever, jam. Doing the math, slowly away from the tables, it looks like a fold. This is very non-intuitive if you have not done this analysis before.

    It was very hard to construct a range where we have the right equity to call. I don't think she was 'ICM owning' you, I think she just jammed a set then collected her equity versus second nuts.
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • foxxxerfoxxxer Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    Thanks Doug, this is going to be really useful for me in helping to understand what goes into ICM calculations... once I review and understand it.

    The only caveat I'll add about the initial calculations I posted is that I perceived OP to prefer the WSOP seats over the others more than just the factor of their increased buyins, and I tried to weight the payouts to reflect that.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    if you fold here - she will be jamming against you every chance she gets - forcing you to play like Gordon Vayo.
    there's meta in this game that no software can consider.

    If we can't call here with the 2nd nut flush - which guarantees us a win - then we're playing scared poker and we should just fold everything pre or shove.
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,769 -
    Kagey,

    I put a through mathematical analysis, the OP gave a definition of the characteristics of the Villain that precludes the kind of exploitive ICM owning that you fear.

    Just saying "I can't fold this hand because it is 'scared poker'" is not a rational argument. We can do better here.

    The crux of it is that winning barely increases your ICM, but losing crushes it. This is damn near a contrived example to show how counter-intuitive these spots are.
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Doug Hull wrote: »
    The crux of it is that winning barely increases your ICM, but losing crushes it. This is damn near a contrived example to show how counter-intuitive these spots are.
    agreed that this is as contrived as can be....

    but disagree here with your analysis
    we win this pot - then we've got 80% of the chips
    we're guaranteed 1st or 2nd... which is essentially the same

    the fact that chip leader was surprised that Hero was so strong tells me that she's shoving a lot lighter than your analysis.

    When you have a All In-shoving big stack - then you're saying the only play is to fold.
    But not just this hand... EVERY hand. Because there will almpst NEVER be a hand where we've got the nuts. So ICM has us folding everything when chip leader is shoving in the pot. (and once she notices we fold every time she shoves... and she will... we should just leave the table and allow ourselves to be blinded off)

    Here - We've essentially got the nut flush and she can have JJ, TT, 88, sets, two pairs and lower flushes. Take ALL the better flushes out of her range.... we're still 65/35.... still an ICM fold.

    Or give us the ace-high flush... do you fold then?

    I understand the math and how you got to your equations. But math is just part of the picture. Consider this: she turns over her hand.... do we call or fold?
    ICM says fold, right?

    So basically, ICM says "don't play poker." Right?

    If the pay jump of 4th to 1st was $100K to 3mil.... life changing money.... than I might be more inclined to play like Vayo. But in this spot where the pay is just an entry into a tourney... no real bankable money - I ain't ever folding.

  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,769 -
    Kagey,

    You are absolutely wrong.

    "When you have a All In-shoving big stack - then you're saying the only play is to fold."

    I am not saying that in general. I am saying that on this board, in this ICM situation. As @perseudeo mentioned, this is part of the reason not to raise the flop. We have to give the Villain a ridiculously wide range in this spot to call.

    But yes, we will fold a ton here, and that is correct.

    As it stands, we are already fairly a lock for the seat. Our ICM value is (in $1000's):

    Fold to jam

    10.8686 5.0337 3.4595 9.0132

    Win when we call

    4.7959 7.0961 4.7847 11.6983

    Lose when we call

    11.8791 8.6799 6.1410 1.6750

    The payout for winning this hand is basically walking away chips. But the loss of this hand throws away a ton of equity.

    If Villain showed me the set, I would fold (we have 65% equity, need 73%)
    If Villain showed me the NFD, the right move is to fold (we have 71% equity, need 73%)

    We gain about $2.6K by wining
    We lose about $7.3K by losing

    We need to win a ton more often than we lose to make this call, so yes, we are folding everything but the nuts here.

    Even more extreme, if we held the nuts and they shoved a set (and we knew it) we would still be right to fold! (we have 65% equity versus a set, it is not worth the risk!)

    So basically, ICM says "don't play poker." Right?

    In a lot of ways, yes it does, especially against the other big stack. There is nothing wrong with that. We are here to make good decisions, the decision is "don't risk your stack when the upside is small and the downside is huge.


    and once she notices we fold every time she shoves... and she will... we should just leave the table and allow ourselves to be blinded off


    There is nothing in the description that makes me think that is true for this Villain.

    Second, that is a completely reasonable road to victory for us.

    If Villain were playing like that (which she is not) then she will be doing that to the short stacks also. In that scenario, the shorties need to get lucky, we need to just wait for them to bust. You mentioned us just blinding off, but the other two will blind off far faster than us.


    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,769 -
    You said math is just part of the picture. In this spot, it is pure math. Give your assumptions, turn the crank see if we call. Math is the only thing that matters here.

    We have our target equity to call. Specifically show me a shoving range for this Villain that we have that equity.
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,130 -
    edited December 2016
    kagey wrote: »
    if you fold here - she will be jamming against you every chance she gets - forcing you to play like Gordon Vayo.
    there's meta in this game that no software can consider.

    If we can't call here with the 2nd nut flush - which guarantees us a win - then we're playing scared poker and we should just fold everything pre or shove.

    There's very little future meta in this particular spot - it could be over in a few hands. And it seems unlikely we'll ever play against this opponent again.

    Note too we don't really care if villain shoves on us at every opportunity. Our goal here is to finish second, not to get in a pissing contest.

    This situation is 100% math. If you deviate from the math you're making a mistake.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • SaintsTigersSaintsTigers Red Chipper Posts: 238 ✭✭
    I would've just called her flop bet. As played, in game, I call though I'm not crazy about doing so.

    Also, not sure why you'd fold those Ace hands for one flop bet unless you know you'd have to call turn and river barrels exposing your stack.
  • SaintsTigersSaintsTigers Red Chipper Posts: 238 ✭✭
    edited December 2016
    Also, I'm not sure it would've worked here v. this villain in this spot. But one time I flipped pocket aces face up after I jammed all in in a satty when we were really close to the payout. Didn't want to risk busting, and the preflop pot was big enough where my stack would most likely last until the money if I won. Last time I did it, I got the fold I wanted. But the floor gave me a one round penalty.

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