1-2 NL - Need help with some Math

Jcolz23Jcolz23 Red Chipper Posts: 14 ✭✭
My stack - $250 Button
High Jack - $140

Bread and butter situation 3 limpers. I raise $15 Preflop w A6spades - 3 callers / Pot ~$60

Flop - A22 (2 Hearts)
-check check (High Jacks 2nd hand) donk bets
$15...I felt my Ace was good so i raise to $55

*was that a correct amount to chase flush draws out? $55 to win $130
-flush 36% is 2-1? It close

Or should i have made it bigger?

Back to the hand. Fold fold
High Jack moves in for $128
So thats $73 to me to win $130
Almost 2-1

What should i be thinking in this spot?
I was trying to think of how many times do i have to be right here to make this be a
positive + EV play.

Im all ears fellas.




He spoke n put me on Kk or Qq range.


Comments

  • tripletiretripletire Red Chipper Posts: 323 ✭✭✭
    Your sizing was correct to push players off of a flush draw, It's a lot closer if they have any more equity like an ace (I don't know if the ace on the board was a heart).

    But I believe with this limited information that your table is not particularly good, and don't understand card odds or even pot odds, so they might be just as happy calling with their flush draws.
  • Jcolz23Jcolz23 Red Chipper Posts: 14 ✭✭
    Thanks for getting back to me. The Ace was a heart.
    I wound up calling the $73 on top to win *$243. ( I made a mistake saying $130). He wound up turning over A4 and the run out was 5,6 and i won the pot.

    I usually dont raise preflop with A rag, even if it is suited but i was mixing up my game a little. For this particular session i was implementing some Red chip advice to never limp and look for bread and butter spots. I found myself in a sticky situation thinking he could have my Ace out kicked. But my read on him was he looked weak. It was his second hand. He limped then called my raise preflop so i didn't put him on a strong Ace. Then his 25% donk bet just was weird. All in all it worked out but i just wanted some input on what other factors to consider. I would definitely like to use more pot control next time and shoot for showdown value.
  • tagliustaglius Red Chipper Posts: 290 ✭✭
    2:1 means you need to be good 33%. (2:1 is another way of saying "one out of 3")

    The key point in your writeup is that you thought your ace was good so you raised, but raising because we think we have the best hand isn't one of the valid reasons to bet. We should raise only when we think we have the best and also that the villain will call with worse. This is the definition of betting for value. As it turns out, that's exactly what happened, so it worked out for you. What we need to do to decide if this was a good raise is enumerate all the hands he might have played this same way, then add up how many of those hands we're beating vs. how many are beating us. If we're beating over 50%, then our raise was a good one.

    We can assume since the villain went to the wall with A4 that he would do it with any ace (the only ace worse is A3 on this board), so now we just have to figure out all the Ax he could have here that he would have limped pre with (this depends on the player type - a nit might limp with AQ or even AK, lots of other players would raise those so we could rule them out). If we can enumerate all the Ax he can have, we can just count all the ones we beat vs. all the ones that beat us, and that's the start to figuring out if we're raising for value or not (we know he's not folding any ace).

    After we get all the Ax, we can go to flush draws - we'll have to count logical combos and then make a guess if he shoves all of the them or maybe just some. We're beating all those - so the more we can add, the more we're making our raise a value bet.

    Then we can add other stuff he might shove - some middle pairs, maybe - a desperation shove hoping we don't have an ace. Maybe 34 or 45 (gutshots), certainly any 2x he might have (though he might not shove any of those, most people tend to slowplay trips and may not even have donked out with them).

  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,712 -
    Jcolz23 wrote: »
    My stack - $250 Button
    High Jack - $140

    Bread and butter situation 3 limpers. I raise $15 Preflop w A6spades - 3 callers / Pot ~$60

    Flop - A22 (2 Hearts)
    -check check (High Jacks 2nd hand) donk bets
    $15...I felt my Ace was good so i raise to $55

    *was that a correct amount to chase flush draws out? $55 to win $130
    -flush 36% is 2-1? It close

    The math is off here.

    $60 in pre
    $15 donk
    $55 from Hero
    $130 is indeed in the pot.

    Villain does not need to call $55 though.

    Villain needs to call $40 since he has put in $15 already.

    Don't for get there are implied odds also.
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,588 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I don't think you're thinking about the hand correctly, in spite of the fact that it turned out OK. You're trying to calculate odds (although incorrectly, as Doug pointed out) with 2 cards to come, but you're not all in so there's more poker to be played. Also, hardly anyone understands the math at 1/2 so it doesn't matter - they're not folding a flush draw. The point is to give them bad odds, not "chase them off".

    Also, you should post in Live Poker Hands next time :)
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    My thoughts: the raise on the flop and the all-in call were correct, but you might have made them for the wrong reasons.
  • david wdavid w Red Chipper Posts: 54 ✭✭
    {quote] What should i be thinking in this spot? [/quote]

    This is what I would be thinking. I smashed this flop. I'm a head of the same amount of kickers I'm behind and if my kicker is behind there is a strong chance the turn or river will rectify that.

    At this point i'm not concerned about flush draws because whenever an A shares the suit of the flush draw the it makes flush draws less likely (by quite a bit) .

    No one can have a pair plus a flush draw.
    No one can have an Ace plus a flush draw.

    My biggest concern is a hart coming and killing my action.

    I would not raise this bet.
    There is no hand in my range that I would raise for value.
    There are two players behind and I want the over calls.

    That's my thoughts.

    I'm glad you won the pot.

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