Bad Spot

uglytunauglytuna Red Chipper Posts: 109 ✭✭
Last hand of rebuy period. Only one rebuy is allowed and I'm on my second bullet. Blinds 250- 500.

I'm Just below starting stack with 19,500. Add-on of 15K add on coming in 6 mins. I'm utg + 2.

UTG (TAG) opens for $1200, UTG stack is just covering me. UTG+1 goes all in as SS with $7400.

I have JJ. In my mind it's all in or fold. Went all in. Folds around, UTG tanks and eventually calls with QQ.
QQ holds and eliminates me from the tournament.

After reviewing, not sure what the correct move is?
(1) Fold? Do I just fold PF? Hold on and add-on to receive another 15K? Making my stack deeper again?
(2) Allin? Take the high variance route? Figuring my shove could get some folds with some dead money on the pot? Win this pot and I'm working with a deep healthy stack.
(3) Call? (1/3 of my stack) Take the passive route and turn my JJ into a medium pair and set mine? If I don't hit, I can simply fold to any bet and add-on later and still in the tournament?

Help / confused?

Comments

  • sparkyAAsparkyAA Red Chipper Posts: 160 ✭✭
    Tag UTG opens within 10 minutes of a pivotal point in the tournament, what is his range here? It is not a bad play, trying to isolate the short stack. If he open-pushed, I would feel better about it.

    If this is a fast moving event, I would be more inclined to make this all in. If it is a slower structure, I would take a lower variance route and wait for better spots.
  • JulesJules Red Chipper Posts: 440 ✭✭✭
    Well if you flat a little more than 1/3 of your stack here tuna what is your plan on the flop? If the flop is good for you then what? I think the result would be the same.
    It's a tough spot...

    If you fold and UTG had called the all in with tens you would have kicked yourself. I think you just got unlucky.

    I could be wrong... maybe someone like @Gazellig or @kagey have a better answer, but I feel it is an all in or fold?
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    i'm gonna give horrible advice until @Gazellig, @Jymaster11 or @Christian Soto come to offer their expertise. but what the heck?

    ok.
    UTG opens. (V1)
    UTG +1 — a SS shoves. (V2)
    We're UTG +2 and we've got JJ.

    Blinds are 250-500.
    so UTG+1 is like 15bb. (V2)
    we've got like 40bb.
    UTG has got 40+bb. (V1)

    okay, okay, okay... what can happen?

    a.) if we call. V1 folds and we're heads up against V2, who's range should be wider than ours. I think V2 can be shoving here with AK-ATs, all pps, KQs-KJs, maybe even QJs.
    (of course our JJ makes him having a J less likely). we flip... sort of, I see us as 60/40-ish with this range. but we're not out of the tourney.

    b.) if we call. V1 shoves and we HAVE to fold having lost ⅓ of our stack. And V1 flips with V2.

    c.) if we call. V1 calls. and we check it down to knock out V2.

    d.) if we call. V1 calls. And shoves the low-board flop and we have to second guess if he's doing it with TT or Ace-high (unlikely). We prolly have to fold here.

    e.) if we call and V1 calls. The flop comes A-high. V1 checks. We check. On the turn, he checks, we shove and get him to fold QQ or KK..

    f.) we shove and V1 folds. (back to scenario a)

    g.) we shove and V1 calls. V1 calls with a better hand. or calls with AK and spikes a winner. (whether or not we spike a J really isn't the point of this exercise, now is it?)

    Why all the scenarios?
    I'm trying see the future...?
    Basically, I think I'm fine with losing ⅓ of my stack against V2... without any knowledge of his range. (I'm guessing he's on his first bullet so he's got nothing to lose?)
    But I'm not happy about what V1 might do.

    What's bugging me is UTG's open.
    I've got no info on him.
    He's opening 2.5-ishX, which is a very standard tournament open.
    If V1 is a true tag - then his UTG open should be pretty tight... probably 5-6%-ish.
    But when we shove, I can speculate that his calling range shrinks to 2-3%-ish.
    So essentially, if we shove and he calls, we're smoked. right?
    So I don't like shoving.

    now let's say we call. and V1 calls.
    is he calling with his total 5-6%-ish opening range?
    I'd say he would.
    we just gave him great odds.
    problem with this: we're allowing him to realize his full equity.
    If he's got 99 and spikes a 9 on the river, we're gonna be pissed.
    (the good news is he probably only bets with nuts, so folding when he bets should be easy. PLUS, we've got position.)
    I don't think this is too horrible - we're either ahead or he's got 2-6 outs to beat us.
    I think I'd be okay with that...

    or if we call and he shoves.
    well, that's an easy fold.
    he's probably self-selecting to play the top 2-3% of his range as a 4-bet... maybe only AA or KK... so we lose chips and fold out our equity.

    so by calling, we should be forcing V1 to play "honestly"
    after all - he ain't gonna shove with 76s pre or on a Q73 board just because he can, now is he?

    folding?
    without further info, I don't see how this is ever +EV.

    based on my flawed logic, I think I'd just call.
    here's why:
    1.) RANGE: JJ plays great against V2's range. It also keeps V1's range wide-ish (when he calls).
    2.) HAND STRENGTH: we don't know what V1 will do. But even more importantly, we don't know what the rest of the table will do! Unless I know that there are a bunch of yahoos behind me who are just looking to 4-bet shove with any-two, flat-calling a 3-bet shove signals that we've got a MONSTER! That should garner some respect here.
    No?
    3.) PROBABILITIES: probabilities tell us that when we've got a pocket pair, the odds of someone else having pocket pairs increase.
    4.) POSITION: we've got position on V1 and with there being no side-pot, he's less likely to create a bigger pot with a worse hand.
    5.) STACK SIZE: we've got the perfect stack to shove on the flop/turn/river if we spike our hand or if V1 looks scared and we sense we can bluff. we can also absorb a 7400 chip hit and still be in the game if we've got to fold at any time.
    6.) HONESTY: as stated earlier, if V1 IS a TAG - he should play his hand face-up allowing us to play "perfectly."
    7.) ADD-ON: I don't mind taking a risk here for ⅓ my stack that I can replenish in 6 minutes.

    here's why it's bad:
    1.) we invite worse hands to come in and try and spike perfection. (But I think a 14bb pre-flop bet would reduce this substancially)
    2.) if ANYONE shoves behind... we probably have to fold out our equity and lose our chips.
    3.) we allow V1 to call and realize his entire equtiy.
    4.) it's kind of whimpy poker! and sort of gives away the strength of our hands to those paying attention.

    make no mistake... this is a risky line.
    is this an "exploitable" line?
    absolutely.
    would any player at you table do so?
    (unless this is a $1k tourney buy-in) me thinks, very unlikely.


    @uglytuna - the BIGGEST problem with this hand, is your lack of player information!
    if you've been there for what? 4 levels?, and have already busted out once, so you should have a plethora of info on player tendencies and ranges. (if you never changed tables, you should have been with these guys at least 2 hours, no?)
    "TAG" and "UTG+1" aren't good enough descriptors to help you make future decisions.
    we also need to understand how the table views you. This is important info too! So it gives us clues as to whether or not someone might make a move if you just call.

    without further info... I vote "call."
    of course I've seen the results which you should have put in a "spoiler"
    so my flawed analysis might have been influenced by the results.
  • sparkyAAsparkyAA Red Chipper Posts: 160 ✭✭
    Reading this a second time, this is a very interesting spot. I still believe if this is a slow moving tournament, it is a fold. The value of chips right now is much less than the value of chips in a few minutes (with the 15k add on). UTG is a TAG and, given the spot in the tournament, his range is very strong. UTG +1 is probably also strong, given he has 14 big blinds and could wait to add on and quadruple his stack. An interesting metagame spot to consider is whether these two have used their rebuy or not
  • uglytunauglytuna Red Chipper Posts: 109 ✭✭
    Great answer guys...

    Truly an interesting spot.

    The UTG is truly a TAG Player. I've have lots of history with this player. He probably open top 5-6% of his range as @Kagey has stated. I agree with Kagey assessment that he is only calling off with top 3% of his hands. So his calling range is exactly JJ+ and AK+. Against a range that is crushing mine.

    So I assume calling is probably best here because (1) it keeps me in the game (2) if V1 shoves, I can fold as knowing his calling range is crushing mine.

    So I assume my shove is probably the worst decision as call and folding are best options here.
  • JulesJules Red Chipper Posts: 440 ✭✭✭
    Wait wait wait! Not disagreeing with anyone, BUT if V1 also flats then what? Are you folding to a bet on flop? turn or river even if it all runs out pure for you? If so why are you flatting? This is important to think about. Is this TAG really folding QQ to aggression?

    You are calling just over 1/3 of your stack to do what?
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Jules wrote: »
    You are calling just over 1/3 of your stack to do what?

    play poker?
  • uglytunauglytuna Red Chipper Posts: 109 ✭✭
    I've emailed my friend aka Sugar D, who is semi-retired professional poker with long list of $2 million in poker winnings.

    I would like to share and discuss his answer?

    Sugar D, "Spot is too good to pass. It's human nature to not want to bust before the buffet, but you have to go with it. Implicit in my answer is that you never flat call here by the way."

    So I've responded with this

    "I want to know why can't we call here? You be advocating to me from past conversations that you should never flat call here or in similar spots.

    Is it because it -Ev? Too spewy, too difficult to continue? Is this to stay out of spots that are too difficult to navigate?

    Regarding tournament poker should our decisions in these spots be binary? Allin or fold?

    I can get the part that we should be ripping here most of the time. What about the time when V1 calls here with his upper part of his range? Do we shrug and chalk it up to a cooler when V1 calls?

    I've been conditioned to do exactly what you said. Rip it, you say but are their spots in tournament Poker that you just deviate from the standard play for outside factors?

    Curious?"

    Sugar D response was "Because JJ is vulnerable to the hands V1 would open/call 7400 with.

    Because calling 7400 and then folding when V1 shoves with AK is an epic fail."

    Still have trouble wrapping my head around Sugar D thought process. Thoughts? Do you agree with Sugar or not?
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    uglytuna wrote: »
    Sugar D response was "Because JJ is vulnerable to the hands V1 would open/call 7400 with.
    Because calling 7400 and then folding when V1 shoves with AK is an epic fail."

    Still have trouble wrapping my head around Sugar D thought process. Thoughts? Do you agree with Sugar or not?
    I think "conventional wisdom" says shove.
    which is why as said my advice may be horrible.

    in a Tournament of Champions or High Roller like what @Matt Berkey plays - I think it's shove or fold. But in lower level tourneys against passive or less experienced players, I think we could get away with just a call.

    I rarely see guys shove here with worse... although, I think, Jules had a hand or two where some goofy player got all aggro with much less than the nuts. (That's why knowing your player pool is so important)

    I like a flat-call - and betting most flops that V1 checks... depending on how we expect him to play.
  • JulesJules Red Chipper Posts: 440 ✭✭✭
    edited November 2016
    kagey wrote: »
    Jules wrote: »
    You are calling just over 1/3 of your stack to do what?

    play poker?

    LOL! :) Yes. So how do you therefore play poker from here? Like I mentioned above don't you think the result would be the same even with a flat? I feel like flatting is just a slower painful death.

    If you flat and V1 flats there is now over 22k in the pot. Don't know V1's stack size. You now have 12k behind. If you were V1 with QQ against your stack what would you do? He's not going anywhere. He bets 1/3 pot only lets say. Thats around 7k. You call? now you only have 5k left. Nah.... If he checks to you Tuna are you checking JJ on a lets say 397 rainbow flop against a TAG? Nah...

    If you flat and V1 ships now you fold? I don't like it guys. It is all in or fold for me. But maybe that is why I've never won a big tourney! :(

    Oh and @kagey I do agree a lot of decisions depends on player pool.

    And yes I agree with Sugar! Obv! :)


  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,008 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 2016
    uglytuna wrote: »
    I've emailed my friend aka Sugar D, who is semi-retired professional poker with long list of $2 million in poker winnings.


    Sugar D, "Spot is too good to pass. It's human nature to not want to bust before the buffet, but you have to go with it. Implicit in my answer is that you never flat call here by the way."

    Sweet. Sugar D sounds like the frosted nuts. Buffet psychology, and good poker advice.

    (I'm gonna tag @+stEVe and hope we can get some additional celebrity knowledge.)

  • Matt BerkeyMatt Berkey Red Chipper, RCP Coach Posts: 278 ✭✭✭
    Only read the op so apologies if I'm restating something that has already been said, but this is a clear fold. This is an effective bubble. You're I've hand away from purchasing 30bbs to add to your 40bb stack. Even if utg is only calling off a small amount of the time, it's still unnecessary risk for marginal gain, when that same gain will occur anyway moments later. The line is drawn by the increased edge of the purchased chips. This is a clear KK, AA only spot for you.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,008 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • JulesJules Red Chipper Posts: 440 ✭✭✭
    Only read the op so apologies if I'm restating something that has already been said, but this is a clear fold. This is an effective bubble. You're I've hand away from purchasing 30bbs to add to your 40bb stack. Even if utg is only calling off a small amount of the time, it's still unnecessary risk for marginal gain, when that same gain will occur anyway moments later. The line is drawn by the increased edge of the purchased chips. This is a clear KK, AA only spot for you.

    OK first of all I'm not quitting my day job! :)

    So @Matt Berkey if I understood correctly you are basing your decision on the opportunity of the add on? I honestly didn't even give this much thought.

    If that wasn't an option how would you proceed with the hand? Also if this was a tourney with only 30 min levels would that change your approach?


  • Matt BerkeyMatt Berkey Red Chipper, RCP Coach Posts: 278 ✭✭✭
    Levels wouldn't change my decision because in a vacuum this spot is incredibly close, but I think it's always a fold barring some specific info on the utg raiser of being way out of line. 40bbs is just too deep to be risking tourney life on the margin. The add-on just makes this a layup.
  • Jymaster11Jymaster11 RCP Coach Posts: 8 ✭✭
    I'm trying to find something to disagree with Berk on but I can't seem to in the situation described. The utg opener is just too tight so not only is his range narrower, so is utg2's. 88 is a fold 100% of the time vs this type of utg opener if I were utg2 and 99 would have me on the fence but I'd more than likely fold. By calling JJ you're just hoping to see TT/AK and that's just from the 14bb shover.

    Once you account for the add-on you're about to get, you can't really justify putting your stack in with less than KK.
  • GazelligGazellig RCP Coach Posts: 74 ✭✭
    I think what @berkey11 says about risking 40bb in a spot for a somewhat marginal gain (how marginal it is depends on the ranges of the two opponents) in a spot where you can add on in a few minutes for the same reward is spot on. The key difference in this tournament is that you have an opportunity to maintain (and improve) your equity without risk. If you get it in and bust it's game over and your equity is 0.

    We could run some numbers here and see what we should be stacking off with, but the key concept here is about risk and tournament equity.

    (OK I did it anyway... QQ+ if UTG+1 is shoving 99+,AQs+,AKo. But if UTG+1 is only shoving TT+,AK as @Jymaster11 suggests then QQ becomes more marginal (than KK; 0.96bb vs 6.35bb), albeit still pretty profitable)
  • Matt BerkeyMatt Berkey Red Chipper, RCP Coach Posts: 278 ✭✭✭
    @Gazellig isn't it's opening range important to consider? He has to be opening rather wide for even qq to be profitable correct (I don't mean chip ev in a traditional sense since we gain 40bbs just staying uninvolved. I mean more of in an icm non-traditional sense)
  • GazelligGazellig RCP Coach Posts: 74 ✭✭
    Yeah absolutely - I think you're right that we shouldn't be focusing on this spot in a traditional chip EV sense and perhaps my final comment was a little misleading - I believe QQ+ to be +cEV in a regular freezeout MTT (UTG opens 10.3%, 77+ ATs+ AJo+ KTs+ KQo QTs+ JTs, UTG+1 jams 3.5%, TT+ AKs AKo).

    We can model this spot as a 'fold here and you're guaranteed to make it to the next round' situation. I mean, if this was a satellite with 9 seats and 10 players left, we should definitely only be getting it in with KK+.
  • GazelligGazellig RCP Coach Posts: 74 ✭✭
    edited November 2016
    Gazellig wrote: »
    Yeah absolutely - I think you're right that we shouldn't be focusing on this spot in a traditional chip EV sense and perhaps my final comment was a little misleading - I believe QQ+ to be +cEV in a regular freezeout MTT (UTG opens 10.3%, 77+ ATs+ AJo+ KTs+ KQo QTs+ JTs, UTG+1 jams 3.5%, TT+ AKs AKo).

    We can model this spot as a 'fold here and you're guaranteed to make it to the next round' situation. I mean, if this was a satellite with 9 seats and 10 players left, we should definitely only be getting it in with KK+.

    Couldn't find the edit button. In the example I gave KK is very marginal, so it's probably an AA only spot, even though conventional wisdom would suggest just folding and having a 0% range here!
  • Matt BerkeyMatt Berkey Red Chipper, RCP Coach Posts: 278 ✭✭✭
    Gazellig wrote: »
    Gazellig wrote: »
    Yeah absolutely - I think you're right that we shouldn't be focusing on this spot in a traditional chip EV sense and perhaps my final comment was a little misleading - I believe QQ+ to be +cEV in a regular freezeout MTT (UTG opens 10.3%, 77+ ATs+ AJo+ KTs+ KQo QTs+ JTs, UTG+1 jams 3.5%, TT+ AKs AKo).

    We can model this spot as a 'fold here and you're guaranteed to make it to the next round' situation. I mean, if this was a satellite with 9 seats and 10 players left, we should definitely only be getting it in with KK+.

    Couldn't find the edit button. In the example I gave KK is very marginal, so it's probably an AA only spot, even though conventional wisdom would suggest just folding and having a 0% range here!

    Well, different from a satty we aren't immediately earning the max prize (the purchased chips aren't the same as first place as far as risk/reward is concerned), so a 0% range seems flawed. My guess is kk+ is correct.
  • GazelligGazellig RCP Coach Posts: 74 ✭✭
    Yeah the 0% range suggestion was for the satellite example and not the original spot - I recognise i've gone off on a bit of a tangent. I think the hardest thing to do here is actually model the spot and prove it mathematically.

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