Hand 2:XX on JT3
Ninjah
Red Chipper Posts: 1,136 ✭✭✭✭
Frequency exploit: The player in the CO plays fit or fold postflop (71% FvFCB) so I want to open a lot of hands against this type of player. Facing two short stack loose-passive players on the button and in the small blind, I have to consider how I’m going to proceed postflop. Preflop, if either of the two short stacks 3-bet, I’m willing to stack off with 88+, AQ and AK as larger pocket pairs and big Aces perform better against a short stack’s range. Preflop range: AA-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KJo,QJo,AKs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s 20.7% 274 combos
Workbook Questions: Preflop, I will raise AT, KJ, and 33.
Flop:
Down to 241 combos on the flop. I will c-bet OESD, FD, overcards, and top pair +. I am betting 157 combos for a 65.1% frequency, expecting to iso the loose-passive short stack and expecting the CO to fold. On a range neutral board, I want to continue to control the hand by betting and applying pressure on my opponents.
Workbook Questions: Bet Jx, Tx, and check 99.
Turn:
CO calls flop and loose-passive player folds. Since we already know that CO plays fit or fold based upon his FvFCB stat and that he has a float percentage of 0, he connected with this board in some way. I narrow his range down to Jx, Tx, straight draws, and flush draws as I believe he would raise sets/two pair on the flop with flush draws and straight draws on board. Although I believe that he is capped at one pair and I am not, he has enough Jx and Tx combos in his range that we are about even equity on the turn. Since his range is capped at one pair and still contains a lot of draws, I am continuing to apply pressure by firing 103 of 157 combos on the turn for a 65.6% frequency. I am not looking to check-raise here since he only bets the turn a small percentage of the time and we are at high risk of letting him check back and actualize his equity.
Workbook Questions: Bet AA, Bet TT, Bet XcYc
River:
Down to 102 combos. On the river, I am continuing to apply pressure with a lot of my range as I feel his range is just too weak to call a third barrel. He also has a low WTSD % meaning that he is very likely to fold on a river that did not improve his hand. I am betting my overpairs, two pairs, sets, and Jx. I do not have any single pair Tx hands that made it to this point. I am betting KQ while checking Ax (for showdown value for his missed draws). I am betting 86 out of 102 combos for an 82.3% frequency.
Workbook Questions: Preflop, I will raise AT, KJ, and 33.
Flop:
Down to 241 combos on the flop. I will c-bet OESD, FD, overcards, and top pair +. I am betting 157 combos for a 65.1% frequency, expecting to iso the loose-passive short stack and expecting the CO to fold. On a range neutral board, I want to continue to control the hand by betting and applying pressure on my opponents.
Workbook Questions: Bet Jx, Tx, and check 99.
Turn:
CO calls flop and loose-passive player folds. Since we already know that CO plays fit or fold based upon his FvFCB stat and that he has a float percentage of 0, he connected with this board in some way. I narrow his range down to Jx, Tx, straight draws, and flush draws as I believe he would raise sets/two pair on the flop with flush draws and straight draws on board. Although I believe that he is capped at one pair and I am not, he has enough Jx and Tx combos in his range that we are about even equity on the turn. Since his range is capped at one pair and still contains a lot of draws, I am continuing to apply pressure by firing 103 of 157 combos on the turn for a 65.6% frequency. I am not looking to check-raise here since he only bets the turn a small percentage of the time and we are at high risk of letting him check back and actualize his equity.
Workbook Questions: Bet AA, Bet TT, Bet XcYc
River:
Down to 102 combos. On the river, I am continuing to apply pressure with a lot of my range as I feel his range is just too weak to call a third barrel. He also has a low WTSD % meaning that he is very likely to fold on a river that did not improve his hand. I am betting my overpairs, two pairs, sets, and Jx. I do not have any single pair Tx hands that made it to this point. I am betting KQ while checking Ax (for showdown value for his missed draws). I am betting 86 out of 102 combos for an 82.3% frequency.
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Comments
Hypothetical - say you fire the turn 100% of the time...how do you think the river normally plays out? (You don't have to answer that here - but that's how you would take the range analysis and then reflect to then create a strategic response to his ranges)
I know you said I didn't have to answer it here but I would like to. Honestly I should be firing 100% of the time on a turn card like this since his range is very face up. When it comes to the river, this would present me with more opportunities to bluff when it bricks out and Villain doesn't go to showdown enough.
The first thing i look for when i consider opening from the HJ is how likely CO and BUT will playback. Is BUT defending a lot the most profitable position in Poker? Does CO noticed that i try to steal HIS position+BUT? If they start to playback i will certainly modify my opening range and maybe start to limp big hands and big broadway cards in the intention of playing aggressively post and/or 4bet to a 3bet.
In this case i notice that CO have a 7% 3bet, which is just a bit over standards in 6max i think. Also, everybody is shortsatcked so it will greatly impact which kind of range i'll open. We've got 2 calling stations in BUT and SB and a more standard taggish player in BB although he is shortstack which could lead me to think he is not a super strong player but i only got 40 hands on him.
Frequencies Exploit : CO fold 71% to FCb's, so i'll fire a lot of boards that dont favor the drawing portion of his range when he Flat call my 2bet. But i'm aware that he is more on the calling station side of the spectrum overall so in the case he doesnt fold to my Cbet, i'll have to 2nd barrel more often to make him fold the SDV portion of his range on very specific Turn.
PREFLOP OPENING RANGE :
22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, ATo+, A5o-A2o, KQo, QJo, Jto
23,4% - 310 combos
QUESTION :
“What would you typically do with the following?”
I open AT.
I open Kjs but ditch Kjo
I open 33.
On flop i Cbet 2Pairs, 3 of a kind, TP, Over pair, FD, OESD. I think that a dynamic flop like this will greatly appeal to those 2 players considering their tendencies of calling preflop. So basically i'll bet all my value into them + Big combo draws that could outraw them.
FLOP CBET RANGE :
QQ+, JcJh, JdJh, JdJc, ThTs, TdTs, TdTh, 3h3s, 3d3s, 3d3h, AhJh, AcJc+, Ac9c-Ac4c, Ac2c, AdJd, KQs, KhJh, KcJc, KdJd, QhJh, QcJc, QdJd, Jh9h+, Jc9c, Jd9d+, 98s, 8c7c, 7c6c, 6c5c, AcJh, AdJh, AdJc, AsJh, AsJc, AsJd, AhJc, AhJd, AcJd, KQo, QcJh, QdJh, QdJc, QsJh, QsJc, QsJd, QhJc, QhJd, QcJd, JhTs, JcTs, JcTh, JdTs, JdTh, JhTd, JcTd
So it account for 98 combos which represent 32% of the previous range.
QUESTION :
“Given the SB’s stats and stack-size, are you more likely to CB or check with the following hands?”
I bet with Jx
I bet with AcKc and AcKx
I X 99
On Turn I'll bet practically the same range but not the OESD portion of it. But i think it's debatable, since V is not beting a lot of turns so do we need to have a x/r range here? I could be interesting to know his Float Turn %. Since V have a high fold to Cbet Flop and that he called our Cbet Flop, i think he is in the SDV portion of his range, so i like the sizing here with all of our range. Important thing is V doesnt went to showdown a lot and he more often good than not at showdown so it will greatly impact how i will play river with the value portion of my range. But since V is so rarely going to showdown i dont expect him to bluff me very often when i bet into him River, so i'll shove any clubs river except the J of clubs. I'll bet into him with my sets, straight and TP/OvP which i'll fold to a raise(TP/OvP) and probably x/c 2P.
MY TURN BET RANGE :
QQ+, JcJh, JdJh, JdJc, ThTs, TdTs, TdTh, 3h3s, 3d3s, 3d3h, AhJh, AcJc+, Ac9c-Ac4c, Ac2c, AdJd, KhJh, KcJc+, KdJd, QhJh, QcJc, QdJd, Jh9h+, Jc9c, Jd9d+, 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c, 6c5c, AcJh, AdJh, AdJc, AsJh, AsJc, AsJd, AhJc, AhJd, AcJd, QcJh, QdJh, QdJc, QsJh, QsJc, QsJd, QhJc, QhJd, QcJd, JhTs, JcTs, JcTh, JdTs, JdTh, JhTd, JcTd
I bet 80 combos which represent 82% of the previous range. I feell like it is too much here.
QUESTION :
“The turn card is a total brick to the board. Would you rather bet or check-raise with the following?”
Since V dont give a lot of action Turn i'd rather bet with all 3 here.
On the River i'm following the plan, so i will rarely have bluffs here specially with V tendencies to show the goods really more often than not River. I'll bet all sets, 2P, TPTK, OvP. Probably x/f the rest of it.
BETTING RANGE RIVER :
QQ+, JcJh, JdJh, JdJc, ThTs, TdTs, TdTh, 3h3s, 3d3s, 3d3h, AhJh, AcJc, AdJd, JhTh, JdTd, AcJh, AdJh, AdJc, AsJh, AsJc, AsJd, AhJc, AhJd, AcJd, JhTs, JcTs, JcTh, JdTs, JdTh, JhTd, JcTd
It accounts for 48 combos which represent 60% of the previous range.
QUESTION :
“You decide to fire the river as well. Are you more likely to bet or check the river with the following?”
I check with KQ/Tx and Bet with the TPTK portion of Jx
I am wondering if i have to much of semi-bluffs/bluffs in my range Turn vs. this type of V ?
I dont know why i thought that BB was shortstack, for an obscur reason i thought that full Stack was 100$ because of our stack of 150$.
Hand 2: In hand 2, we are facing a Villain who plays a very fit-or-fold style postflop. This hand was an excellent example of how an opponent's play on a certain type of runout caps their range and how we should apply maximum pressure when the runout doesn’t favor their range and we are uncapped. I haven’t studied enough in this area but this hand gave me a glimpse down that rabbit hole as I continue to work on improving my understanding of the game.
You can click on the pictures.
Before our action:
Villian's missed hands: KQo (12 combos), KQs (4 combos), 7c6c (1 combo).
Villian's weak check-behind hands: 98s (3 combos), 8c7c (1 combo), QJs (3 combos)
Villian's calling/value-bet hands: AJo (9 combos), KJo (9 combos), KJs (3 combos), AJs (3 combos). Villian will bet 42 / 49 combos if we check. 17 / 42 will be bluffs.