2 pair in 50K

mbehr1983mbehr1983 Red Chipper Posts: 635 ✭✭✭
Loose table my image is tight
Right after second break
Blinds 400/800 100 ante
Hero BB :Ah :7h
Mp1 15k raises 2200
Mp2 15k calls
CO 65K calls
Hero complete
F :As :7s :Kc
I check with plans to C/R
And MP1 bets 3K callx2
I raise 25k
MP1 all in
MP2 all in
CO call
T :Jh
X
CO all in
Hero???

Comments

  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    What are the stack sizes remaining?
  • mbehr1983mbehr1983 Red Chipper Posts: 635 ✭✭✭
    They are after V
    MP1 15K
    MP2 15K
    Co 65
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Sorry that I missed that before :).

    If my math is correct, then V has just shy of $40,000 left and, with his bet, there's over $100,000 in the pot. I'd call. Obviously, you could be behind any of the three players, but you could be ahead, as well. Even if you are behind, you have a few outs. Bottom line, if you only beat V, then you still make a profit this hand with your side-pot.
  • JulesJules Red Chipper Posts: 440 ✭✭✭
    Sorry but what was your stack size to start the hand?
  • mbehr1983mbehr1983 Red Chipper Posts: 635 ✭✭✭
    Jules wrote: »
    Sorry but what was your stack size to start the hand?
    I have 80k roughly was worried about getting all the details and forgot mine
  • JulesJules Red Chipper Posts: 440 ✭✭✭
    So you had 100bbs!! Sweet. I think you played the hand fine. I would call. What was your concern on the turn that you are questioning this hand?

    I hope you won the hand for that massive pot! :)
  • mbehr1983mbehr1983 Red Chipper Posts: 635 ✭✭✭
    I was concerned about the straight and if the line was most logical. :Qs :Ts never folding here and not sure about other straight or flushes. I was also wondering if it should be a fold because if he has a straight I have 10k or so where as if I find a fold on turn still double starting stack
    This was my thinking as well if I win this hand It sets me up well with half way through day 1. I called and the second big stack has QTss so
  • JulesJules Red Chipper Posts: 440 ✭✭✭
    He did have QTs?? :( Bummer.... I'm actually surprised he flatted your CR on the flop and he didn't get it all in then. I always seem to get myself in trouble in these spots as well. I don't know if I could find a fold. One thing that makes this a tough spot is it is a 4 way pot.

    If I calculated correctly there is 130k in the pot. You have about 53k by the turn and you would have to call off another 37800 to win 130k when villain ships. This would leave you with about 15k (18 bbs) and you still have outs. My math may be off. I don't know if we should be thinking well I think I'm beat and I should save chips and fold here. Or are we thinking the math is correct and I should call and hope to win this monster pot. I talked about this before in a previous post. If you know you're beat at the moment, but math says call what should you do? Go with your gut or go with the math?

    I don't think you played this so bad, but I've been wrong many times. I do not think as deep as @berkey11 and @Gazellig in regards to these kind of decisions. They are on a whole other level obviously. :)
  • JulesJules Red Chipper Posts: 440 ✭✭✭
    @mbehr1983 You have got me thinking. If you could only see the tiny little wheels in my brain.

    What if you would have led out half pot on the flop? Do you think the 2 shorter stacks would have shipped? Flat from CO most likely. If he flats 22k he prob would of flatted 12k from the middle position players and you could have come over the top putting the CO to a decision on the flop for all his chips.
  • mbehr1983mbehr1983 Red Chipper Posts: 635 ✭✭✭
    Yeah that may of been a better line. I think the two in the middle would just flat though pfish. First to act after me has A7o so he may ship it?
    Next has AQo he may ship? CO said he want going anywhere. I think if I lead and get that much action aI may find a gross fold. All in call call I can't be good here right? My thought in game was I was getting a good price with outs and if he is overvaluing 2pair I am chip leader. The side had nearly as much as the main
  • The MuleThe Mule Red Chipper Posts: 779 ✭✭✭
    With two passive fish behind you, how confident were you that you would get a chance to check-raise ? I think this strengthens the argument for leading.

    I think the CO calls on the flop mark him as most likely having a draw. He has very little incentive to bet his draws on the turn with two players already all-in for the main pot. Also his exact hand is probably the only realistic draw that the J on the turn improves to a hand he can value bet, except maybe KsJs. Therefore I think you need to shove the turn to charge the draws.
    Jules wrote: »
    He did have QTs?? :( Bummer.... I'm actually surprised he flatted your CR on the flop and he didn't get it all in then.

    With two players already all-in I don't think the second nut flush draw plus a gut shot has enough equity against a check-raisers range to shove. There's probably very little fold equity, and pushing out hero is unlikely to help villain's equity much (villain will still need to hit one of his outs to win). I expect calling the flop, thereby closing the action, and hoping to hit on the turn has a much higher EV.
  • JulesJules Red Chipper Posts: 440 ✭✭✭

    colldav wrote: »
    Jules wrote: »
    He did have QTs?? :( Bummer.... I'm actually surprised he flatted your CR on the flop and he didn't get it all in then.

    With two players already all-in I don't think the second nut flush draw plus a gut shot has enough equity against a check-raisers range to shove. There's probably very little fold equity, and pushing out hero is unlikely to help villain's equity much (villain will still need to hit one of his outs to win). I expect calling the flop, thereby closing the action, and hoping to hit on the turn has a much higher EV.

    Hmmmmm. Good point. So it looks like leading out on the flop would have been a better option.



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