Fancy play syndrome [4nl]

Andrew MalewskiAndrew Malewski Red Chipper Posts: 70 ✭✭
I think I should avoid these plays and be more value oriented, but I really can't do anything about it, especially if I think my opponent is weak. As you would see in the following hand regs have stopped to believe me at all, maybe that's because of my wwsf stat of 50 lol.
Ok, the current guy is a 35/26 loose passive reg with af of 1,7 and squeeze in BB of 10%, so I thought I would be well ahead of his range if I call his squeeze preflop.
UTG opens for 0,12$, folds around and I call on BU w :Ac:Js
folds to BB (villain) which makes it 0,50$, UTG folds and I call.
FLOP (1,14$)
:5d:8d:9h
Villain bets 0,56$ (71% CB stat in 3B pot) and I got really suspicious he doesn't have a real hand here, as his bet size doesnt seem to be protected. At the same time, I could easily have 99-JJ, so I decided to go for a bluff raise to 1,68$ with my two overs and fold to a jam. UTG (suprisingly) calls. When he calls I dont really put him on a strong hand. If he had an overpair, he would jam, same with sets, straights and nut flushdraws. So anything he could realistically have is some weird pocket pair like 66 or 77 or just two overcards which do not believe me, but yet I think I could get him to fold these by the river.
TURN (4,50$)
:Tc
What an amazing card to continue bluffing! Not only it makes my range significantly stronger (TT now has set and JJ now have overpair+OESD), it gives me some equity if he decides to call with his junk. So he checks and I jam for 1,82$ effective, but unfortunately he calls with :Ah:Kc ... What a disaster :(
RIVER (9,06$)
:Qd
So I got lucky this time and made my straight by the river, but I think I should avoid doing this in future, especially against this guy lol. Bluffing these donkregs would cost me money in the long term. Any thoughts about this hand? Would you play fit or fold from the flop against him or you'd fight for the pot like I did?

Comments

  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    edited December 2016
    What are the stats of UTG ? Which will impact if i 3bet him or not with AJ on BUT.

    When you decide to call BB preflop, on flop he got 24 combos of OvP and 24 combos of better Ax, maybe 3 combos of 99. I think this flop is good for the value portion of his range. I think that when you x/r this flop your nuts portion is so thin that V will rarely make a mistake. But it's NL4 so...

    I think i would prefer call Flop and bluffing Turn when he X into us on any diamonds or 6/7/T/J.

    But the Turn play will greatly depend on his tendencies to bet the Turn and his Cbet Turn%
  • Andrew MalewskiAndrew Malewski Red Chipper Posts: 70 ✭✭
    What are the stats of UTG ? Which will impact if i 3bet him or not with AJ on BUT.

    When you decide to call BB preflop, on flop he got 24 combos of OvP and 24 combos of better Ax, maybe 3 combos of 99. I think this flop is good for the value portion of his range. I think that when you x/r this flop your nuts portion is so thin that V will rarely make a mistake. But it's NL4 so...

    I think i would prefer call Flop and bluffing Turn when he X into us on any diamonds or 6/7/T/J.

    But the Turn play will greatly depend on his tendencies to bet the Turn and his Cbet Turn%

    His fold vs cbet was 75% so I decided not to + he barells a lot, so thats why I flatted there.
    Yeah, maybe call flop and bluff turn would be more optimal here. I just wanted to attack his weak sizing on the flop and pick up the pot right now, but it didnt work and I needed to work something out xD..
  • Andrew MalewskiAndrew Malewski Red Chipper Posts: 70 ✭✭
    apologies, UTG's *fold vs 3bet was 75%, not c-bet :)
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    edited December 2016
    I'm interested in his Opening percentage from UTG also. And his Fold to Flop Cbet%
  • Andrew MalewskiAndrew Malewski Red Chipper Posts: 70 ✭✭
    I'm interested in his Opening percentage from UTG also. And his Fold to Flop Cbet%

    Loose 15% open UTG fold to flop cbet SRP 61% 3BP 58%
  • Andrew MalewskiAndrew Malewski Red Chipper Posts: 70 ✭✭
    Also, don't you think that it's less likely that he folds on turn if you don't represent strenght on such board? What would happen if say I call the flop, he cheks the turn and I bet then he calls and river bricks off? Checking and giving up kinda sucks for me xD
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    15% is not that loose at 6 max .
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    edited December 2016
    Also, don't you think that it's less likely that he folds on turn if you don't represent strenght on such board? What would happen if say I call the flop, he cheks the turn and I bet then he calls and river bricks off? Checking and giving up kinda sucks for me xD

    Who cares, you're bluffing except that with this line you'll save some and i think that it will have the same effect Turn since i'll think it is more credible given your BUT call. You suspect him to whiff the flop, call flop and take his share of equity Turn when he X to you.

    Also wouldn't it be better if River bricks in facts if we bet Turn and he call?

    Maybe i'm out of bounds with this but i think i prefer this line.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    edited December 2016
    But looking back at pre flop dynamics, we miss an important element, stack size.

    And even if he is a loose player he is not a complete tard in the sense that he know he is OOP for the rest of the hands so i suspect his range to be stronger and depolarized here.

    When you decided to bluff him you are targeting specifically 2 hands AK/AQ since he'll probably never fold everything else on flop. Probably not a good spot given pre flop action to x/r bluff here.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    edited December 2016
    Regardless of how the hand played out i would take a note about him as he love AK and gladly go to showdown with it vs. a perceived strong range. So if he do this with AK he is probably doing it with AQ, maybe even AJ and he is probably, practically never laydown TP Aces on a non obvious Straight/Flush board. So now value the hell out of him. Even with K high boards probably.
  • Andrew MalewskiAndrew Malewski Red Chipper Posts: 70 ✭✭
    You absolutely nailed it, now I'm thinking you're 100% right, especially considering stack size which I didn't really pay attention to during the hand. Appreciate your feedback :)

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