Hand 5: XX on QJ7

NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭✭
On a standard table, I wouldn’t open this light from UTG but I’m in a situation where I have several weaker loose-passive players at my table and will be willing to sacrifice preflop EV to play pots against them. Although one of the TAG players has position on me, the other one is in the SB and doesn’t call raises much and has a very narrow range when he does. My opening range on this table from UTG:

AA-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s,65s 274 combos 20.7% open

Workbook Questions: I would raise AT, KJs, and 98s

Flop: :Qc:Jc:7h

Down to 230 combos on the flop. Since only the blinds called, I’m in a great spot here with position, range advantage, and uncapped. SB’s calling range is filled with pocket pairs and Broadway cards while the BB is a loose passive player that has a lot of weak hands in his range. My primary focus on this hand will be on the SB since he has a more reasonable statline. I designed SB’s calling range as JJ-33,AQo-AJo,KQo,AQs-A8s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s.

Frequency exploit: Villain likes to peel the flop as he only folds to a c-bet 25% of the time. However, his WTSD is extremely low at 18% which means that he will fold out most of his range if multiple bullets are fired. Therefore I will be betting at a high frequency on the flop with the expectation of taking the pot when firing a second barrel.The more I bet the flop, the more hands I have available to bet the turn. Betting 188 out of 230 combos for an 81.7% frequency.

Workbook Questions: Betting AA, AKo, and 99.

When the SB check raises and does so at a frequency of 25%, he has a lot of draws and some air in his range as a 25% check-raise frequency is very high. He can have a set of Jacks and sevens only (3 combos of each) and only 3 combos of two pair so he only has a small amount of nutted hands at 9 total combos. He has more OESD and FD combos than nutted hands (15 total combos) and 27 combos of top pair which I will have good equity against with my shoving range here. Due to him having a high check-raise percentage, I also suspect that he will be doing this with second pair as well.

My shoving range: AA-JJ,77,AQo,KQo,KTo,QJo,AQs,KQs,KTs,QJs,T9s,AcKc,AcTc,Tc8c,9c8c,9c7c,8c7c,8c6c,7c6c,6c5c

His assigned check-raising range: JJ,77,AQo-AJo,KQo,AQs-AJs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,AcTc,Ac9c,Ac8c,9c8c,8c7c

With the ranges above, I have a 57% to 43% equity edge.

Comments

  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,071 -
    You've fallen into my trap!

    Sample size. Sample size. Sample size.

    This is a player with 172 hands. He calls 2bets at 11%. A 25% FCR is almost certainly 1/4 MAYBE 2/8. This is not reliable enough to make such a stat-focused assumption about his CR range.

    (the rest of your analysis looks good though)
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  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭✭
    SplitSuit wrote: »
    You've fallen into my trap!

    Sample size. Sample size. Sample size.

    This is a player with 172 hands. He calls 2bets at 11%. A 25% FCR is almost certainly 1/4 MAYBE 2/8. This is not reliable enough to make such a stat-focused assumption about his CR range.

    (the rest of your analysis looks good though)

    I thought about this after discussing sample size with you on hand 6. I'll have to keep an eye out for your trickery!
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    edited December 2016
    On this table i got position on who seem to be the strongest player at the table and we only have a short stack in the CO, everybody else is near or a bit over 100BB so i'll open a standard range here which consist of this:

    222 combos - 16.7%
    rpo99sbalq5r.png

    BOOK'S QUESTION:

    AT - OPEN
    KJs - OPEN ---> This one is really dynamics dependent on who i got to my left and the actions so far
    98s - OPEN

    Both blinds calls. Here since we got a calling station in the BB i'm expecting SB to call with a lot stronger range than usual to keep BB in including maybe AA/KK/QQ a certain % of the time. He x/r flop 25% of the time so he probably need some strong PP to balance with his x/r NFD.

    On flop im down to 195 combos.

    Both blinds X and i'm betting 2/3 pot. I will do this with the very strong portion of my range and maybe essentially, nuts heavy.

    On this board i won't bluff a ton into 2 players, specially when SB having a very low FtoFCbet%. And i dont feel like having a ton of FE and it will put me on a tough spot Turn i think with my bluffs and if i happen to X Turn i think SB will have a license to bluff me a ton on a lot of rivers. So if i include bluffs i'll have to fire Turn more often than not.
    So my betting range is, 86 combos for 44% of the previous range.

    aj5kfoe3dweb.png

    BOOK'S Question:

    AA - Cbet
    AKo - Cbet
    99 - X behind.

    When SB x/r he got all sets with a bit less of 100% with QQ but i think he still have it. I think he could have all QJ since he know that BB dont give actions preflop and will call also when he calls. I rarely see him having NFD here.
    So we shove with 65 combos out of the previous 86 for 76%

    4aovpclaxlmn.png

    Here i notice that given strong V range we shouldn't shove with a range so wide

    I think i have to review my shoving range here and i'm anxious to read what Ninjah come up with. (I dont read previous members answers before writing mine).

    KK- Call
    AK - Only AKcc
    Clubs - Call
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    @Ninjah

    Do you feel like having a lot of FE Flop into those 2 type players ?
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭✭
    @Ninjah

    Do you feel like having a lot of FE Flop into those 2 type players ?

    I don't think so, not with the board texture and Villain's low FvCB%.
  • YoshYosh Red Chipper Posts: 580 ✭✭✭
    edited January 2017
    The running theme of this so far is that I am incredibly tight compared to you two maniacs. My standard UTG open is 10-15%, and it swings low when the two players on our left are super loose and/or short.

    Question for both(all) of you. In this formation, do you really expect to show a profit with small pairs and suited connectors? IMO playing these hands is going to be a big leak. If you want to go wider and exploit, I would play the broadway square (15%) instead of looking to cover the board.

    I also disagree with continuation betting AKo 3-way. You have a ton of better hands to balance your range with and AK has a lot of showdown value.


  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    You make good points @Yosh. I will revisit this one as soon as i re-start the exercice.

    "you two maniacs" ha ha ha !
  • johnny55johnny55 Red Chipper Posts: 13 ✭✭
    I was thinking the same thing as Yosh and my range was very tight in that spot as well.

    I just don't like to play OOP, especialy family pots, which will happen pretty often with that table configuration (HJ-CO-BB seems loose passive players, so even BTN and SB will be inclined to call wider a lot)

    Not to mention the risk of a 3bet from BTN and SB.

    There are very few hands that I think are profitable in that spot, my weakest pair in my range is 99.
  • Cees_DCees_D Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    Hi all, maybe I also should open tighter UG in this table configuration. But here is my first attempt.

    We open EP 3x. MP loose-passive 99BB. CO loose-passive 31BB. BUT TAG 127BB. SB LAG 108BB. BB tight passive 99B. MP and CO call wide range. BUT tight range. SB only continues 11% vs 2BET, so he folds a lot of the time. If SB calls be aware of this tight range.

    Preflop
    AT = ATo fold. ATs open-raise
    KJs = open-raise
    98s = open-raise

    My RFI range:
    AA-22,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s (51.7% equity vs SB calling range)
    17.3% and 230 combo's

    SB 2BET calling range (C2BET 11%):
    JJ-22,AQo-AJo,KQo-KJo,AQs-AJs,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s

    Flop
    :QC::JC::7H:

    This flop benefits SB range because of a higher density of broadway cards. 85% of his flop calling range consists of middle pair and top pair. We have more flush draws. SB's range is capped and more middle of the road. SB checks, BB checks. We bet 2/3 pot. We don't expect SB to fold to the CB because SB continues 75% ott. BB looks passive, but the sample size is small. I think we should use the 11% C2BET range and 25% FvFCB of SB as a guideline for further actions. What looks strange to me is: although SB's preflop calling range is tight, his WTSD and W$SD are low. Maybe this is because of his wide (75%) calling range on the flop. This means we can also pressure the turn and river to get a fold from SB and even if it comes to showdown we can probably make money. So we continue wide here:

    Check: Middle pair/GS/Bckdr FD
    Bet: TP/OP/2P/SET/FD

    AA = CB. Only hands that beat us atm are 9/85 combo's.
    AKo = Check. SB will mostly not fold. Get free card.
    99 = Check . SB will mostly not fold. Get free card.

    My CB range:
    JJ-77,AQo-AJo,KQo-KJo,AQs-AJs,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s,9c8c,8c7c,7c6c (Middle pair/TP/OP/2P/SET/FD/OESD/GS/Bckdr FD) (50.6% equity vs SB calling range)
    65% and 130 combo's

    SB calling range (FvFCB 25%):
    JJ-77,AQo-AJo,KQo-KJo,AQs-AJs,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s,9c8c,8c7c,7c6c (Weak pair+/FD/OESD)

    Flop (SB X/R)
    SB FCR 25% so 25% of the preflop calling range passes through. I also fell into the "sample size trap". But I don't think he will be x/r (semi)bluffing here often into two people. TP+ seems reasonable for a X/R.

    SB flop X/R range:
    JJ,77,QJs,[90]AQo,KQo,AQs,KQs[/90] (90% of TP/2P/SET) Maybe I would tighten SB's range up in the TP section by only X/R AQs.

    KK = All-in (No folding. X/R of 3x is nearly a all-in)
    AK = AKo fold. AKs All-in.
    Clubs = All-in

    Pot odds: (4.50+3+13.5+45.5+32 = 98.5) 45.5/98.5 = 46.2% equity needed.

    My all-in range:
    AA-JJ,77,AQo,KQo,AQs,KQs,QJs-Q9s,AcKc,AcTc,Ac9c,Ac8c,Ac7c,Ac6c,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac3c,Ac2c,KcTc,Kc9c,Tc9c,9c8c,8c7c,7c6c,6c5c (TP/OP/2P/SET/FD) (47.2% vs SB flop x/r range)
    35% and 71 combo's

    If I tighten SB's TP range, I'm adjusting it here aswell. Shoving only AQs of the TP's. (And ofcourse OP/2P/SET/FD)
  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 108 ✭✭
    I think we've all been "burned" by ourselves due to putting too much stock in a lower stat sample than we'd like. I know I have... this is one of those times. I decided early on in this hand that Id prolly open a value heavy linear range. It looks like you're going to get a lot of flats. Without getting detailed The x/raise/shove range better be 77, JJ+, AcKc and maybe QJ... I don't see SB x/r with tons of non-nut draws. I was thinking of just flatting AxAc, KxKc..I believe the FE is very low
  • dave19067dave19067 Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    edited October 2019
    FYI, just started looking at this hand and haven't got to the flop yet. I was curious as to what other people did preflop because I'm not sure if I'm being too tight.

    I folded all three example hands UTG, especially the 98s. I have had no success playing suited connectors OOP and potentially against a shortstack. The ATo and KJs might be profitable against the loose players as they can dominate all their trashy hands, but they don't do well against multiple opponents and I feel that's going to happen a lot in this situation.
  • dave19067dave19067 Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    edited October 2019
    Here's my analysis.

    Preflop:
    Only 9.3% of hands. My Range: AA-66,AKs-ATs,KQs,AKo-AJo,KQo

    Flop:
    AA - Bet
    AK - Check
    99 - Check

    After C/R:
    KK - All-in
    AK (w/1 or 2 clubs) - All-in, otherwise fold
    Clubs - All-in
    Based on stats, SB seems like a fit or fold type player and some midpairs in his hand (though I could be wrong about this), so I think we have some fold equity. I'm pushing the KK because of possible scare cards on the turn that could kill action.

    QQ and 77 I'm going to slowplay.

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