Hand 7: XX on K62

NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,141 ✭✭✭✭
A maniac raises from the button. We don’t have enough hands on him to utilize any stats in terms of 3-betting but when someone is playing this many hands, even over a small sample, I think it’s best to 3-bet strictly for value as I think it’s very likely that he is going to call very light and continue when he catches any part of the flop. My 3-betting range would be TT+, AK, and AQ. Since he is opening such a wide range that contains so many weak hands, I will defend fairly wide here with a range designed for board coverage but does not contain a lot of junk hands at the same time (compared to Villain’s opening range).

Defending with: 99-22,AJo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QyyTo,JTo,AJs-A5s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,
87s-86s,76s-75s,65s 248 combos 18.7%.

Flop: :Kh:6d:2c

Down to 225 combos on the flop. When we check to Villain on the flop, I believe that he will fire any pair, gutshot, and some big Aces that missed. Since he has such a wide opening range, this is still a lot of combos that he is c-betting with on the flop at over 220. I have no inclination to take the initiative away from him on such a dry board with my strong hands knowing that he will fire the turn frequently with a lot of weak hands. I am calling with pocket pairs larger than 6’s, sets, and Kx. I am also floating Aces AT and above as well as my suited Aces that have backdoor flush potential with the plan of check-raising a lot of my bluffs and medium strength hands on a brick turn that cannot improve. Calling the flop with 115 combos at a 51.1% frequency.

Workbook Questions: Calling all Kx and 6x hands and calling with AhTh.

Turn: :Th

Down to 108 combos on the turn. Villain has a high turn bet frequency over the small sample size that we have so I lean towards check raising a lot of hands on the turn because he has a lot of his range that cannot continue facing aggression. I want my check-raising range to be somewhat balanced between bluffs and made hands but heavier on made hands because I feel that Villain may call here frequently. Check-raising sets, KT, KQ, and Ahxh flush draws, a total of 33 out of 108 combos at a 30.6% frequency.

Workbook Questions: KJ x/c, KT and 66 raise

River: :3s

When the river bricks, I want to continue telling the story that I was telling on the turn and the story is that I have a stronger hand than Villain. I am shoving my entire range that I check-raised on the turn. 33 out of 33 combos at a 100% frequency. Villain has a high W$SD% but it is a tiny sample and is not a sustainable figure. I do not think that it plays a factor into my decision on this river.

Comments

  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,141 ✭✭✭✭
    I have already learned a lot about hand reading in the first section and I wanted to share some of my thoughts on each hand in the first section of the workbook. Feel free to add your own info or ask questions! I broke this into a hand by hand post because I don’t want to discourage people from reading a VERY long post if I were to attach it all at once.

    Hand 7: I feel like my analysis wasn’t bad overall here but I still have questions about floating hands vs. a maniac. If he is firing so often and has so much junk in his range, is it fair to float with a lot of bigger Aces that could possibly survive a showdown if unimproved or could at least gain equity on the turn? I feel that fighting fire with fire against a maniac with a hand weaker than top pair isn’t a bright idea so I don’t like raising a lot in situations like these. The adjustment that pops to mind against a player like this is to play more value hands and call him down but I also feel that if I tighten up too much, I’m playing right into his hands by folding too much. Where is the middle ground here?
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,657 ✭✭✭✭
    edited December 2016
    V is very aggro style so far but the sample is really small so again i will rely much more on Vpip/PFR to determine is aggression tendencies. There is a huge gap between those 2 stats which lead me to think that when he give back actions it is likely to be with a fairly strong(but not nuttish) range but will call with a lot of stuff IP and OOP.

    Also an important thing to consider here about the stats is that if we are the 2 players that opened the table, his stats doesn't mean anything really in terms of Vpip/PFR since we only played HU so far and it is normal that those are that high after only 65 hands.

    Effective stacks 120BBs

    So far V didn't fold to 3bet and call 50% of the time when facing a 3bet. So i'll have to weighted some value hands into my 3bet range and into my calling range. I won't polarized my range OOP but may do it IP.

    My calling range is:

    20.5% for 271 combos.
    m1dlhs1k49l1.png

    QUESTION:

    AQ - 3bet and call some % of the time.
    KT suited - Call
    9s8s- Call
    FLOP
    :2d:Kh:6c

    On this flop i'm expecting V to fire a ton of Cbet, more than his usual 67%. So i will call very wide here, practically with all the parts of my range that have a ressemblance of equity and since it is a dry flop i'll call with value hands also. I want to have some strong hands in the mix since V is Cbetting Turn at 75%.

    This is my [√] - Call Range :

    130 combos which account for 48% of the previous range.

    9keg8m289xe4.png

    QUESTION:
    Kx - [√]/Call
    6x - [√]/Raise
    AhTh - [√]/Call
    TURN
    :2d:Kh:6c - :Th

    I'm expecting V to fire Turn and when that card fall, i think he got more bluffs/semi-bluffs than real value hand here. Since i'll have hand in the value part of my range vulnerable going to the river, i'll [√]/Raise here with Value and semi-bluffs and [√]/fold everything else.

    So here is my [√]/Raise range.

    53 combos which account for 41% of the previous range.

    p3ue9khzypgp.png

    QUESTION:
    [√]/Raise all 3
    RIVER
    :3s

    Here we practically shove all our range. I was looking at what i would call if i x and V shove and there is not a lot of things i would fold.

    So here is my shoving range:
    lrq5jmadm41p.png

    QUESTION:
    Kx - Shove
    KT - Shove
    XhYh - Not all of them - AQ/AJ/A3/A2=Shove
  • dave19067dave19067 Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    Preflop: I prefer to 3-bet the 98s as a semi-bluff, and the AQ for value. Middle-of-the-road hands like KTs I will call.

    Our skill edge is negated with 98s because its an underdog to the villian's range AND we are OOP. By 3-betting it, we gain initiative and can win on the flop with a c-bet.

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